Telling It Like It Is

THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT IF?

THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT IF?

"WHAT IF" QUESTIONS WILL FRAME THIS WEEK'S EDITION
We have a rookie President, inexperienced, uncertain and acting in a way that is far different than his campaign rhetoric or even the positions he espoused from the teleprompter.  The American people may be a lot of things:  spoiled, apathetic, frustrated and angry.  They are not stupid.  Sooner or later, they will realize that the Obama campaign "sold them a bill of goods." Obama's reality is what he appeared to be to anyone who carefully scrutinized him and his record.  A glib speaker who is a front for an extreme left-leaning, big government philosophy, whose centerpiece is "wealth redistribution" from those who create wealth, through the government (that takes its cut) and into the hands of the least productive sector of American society--all in the name of being "fair."  Worse yet, he is aided and abetted by accomplices in both houses of Congress, whose leaders are equally deluded--or more so.  A large scale House-cleaning (pun intended) is what's needed.  2010 is the time to start.  2012 is when to finish the job.

WHAT IF?  OBAMA CONVENES A JOB CREATION SUMMIT AND ALL THE ADVICE IS COUNTER TO HIS POLICIES?
You know the answer.  He will ignore it, and politicize the issue.  To create jobs, the government must "butt out" and lower taxes, reduce regulations, and let businesses compete, grow and realize that they can invest without fear that all the proceeds will be confiscated to support the growing government bureaucracy, and/or redistributed to those who contribute nothing, but are "needy."  Even extreme left wing economists like Paul Krugman are smart enough to see that the current approach is not working.  He's suggesting "new approaches," and while they are still misguided, they are getting closer to the right approach.  The chart below shows how wrong the current approach has been.  This has been revealed over and over, going back to FDR's mistakes.  But "those who do not learn from history are destined to repeat its mistakes."




WHAT IF? CAR COMPANIES ACTUALLY WISE UP—DROP EXCESSIVE BRANDS & MODELS, SHED EXCESS CAPACITY & UAW EMPLOYEES
I knew a former GM senior executive (former CEO Roger Smith's strategic planning director), and he told me in 1992 that GM had too many car brands and models for its market share--and that was 17 years ago.  What happened in the ensuing two decades?  Not much.  Oldsmobile was shut down amidst much outcry and financial impacts.  A long time ago, I reported that the entire auto industry was proliferating models at a huge rate, far faster than either innovation or market needs dictated.  The result:  too many different models, too much complexity, too many plants, too many dealers, too little growth and far too little profit.  What happened as a result of this information?  Absolutely nothing.

Alan Mulally of Ford came from "outside the car industry" and saw it clearly.  He started pruning ahead of the pack.  GM is doing it with a government "gun to its head."  Chrysler is dying and nearly dead, and Fiat will salvage only bits and pieces.  The rest is gone--it is a "dead man walking."  Even Toyota, Honda and Hyundai (the new Big Three?) are pruning products--as they should.  No companies I know have "Unmarketing Depts." but they need them to clear out the deadwood, and make room for real innovation--not more proliferation.  Unfortunately, the result of "cutting capacity of all kinds" will be shedding more jobs--in both factories, at suppliers, and in dealerships.  There is no other option.

WHAT IF? THE PRESIDENT IS DECEIVING US AGAIN: EMPLOYMENT  LANGUISHES & A RECOVERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN--AT BEST?
In two words, "not yet!"  Consider the chart below.  Hours (employment) continue to drop.  By the time you are reading this, TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT OF ALL KINDS IN THE USA WILL BE 18%.  There will be no meaningful recovery until employment stops dropping and starts to reverse.  Before that happens, employers will increase work-week hours, and be slow to rehire people they just cut.  The true recovery won't happen as long as Americans are unemployed, underemployed and working part time.  Year over year gains will create an illusion of growth, but if comparisons go back to pre-collapse time frames, there is no recovery.  IT WILL TAKE 7-10 YEARS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT TO RETURN TO 2007 LEVELS. 




—ADVISERS ADVISE--BUT IF THE "LEADER" ISN'T WISE ENOUGH TO TAKE THE ADVICE...            

President's Economic Team Knows Better And Should Be Allowed To Restore Sanity          
By MIKE COSGROVE
Posted 11/10/2009 07:53 PM ET

Volcker, Romer and Summers: Silent as the dollar collapses, oil and gold surge, and growth-inhibiting policies such as higher taxes and cap-and-trade...View Enlarged Image
    Gold prices near $1,100 an ounce are a prelude to what is ahead if the Obama administration and Congress do not soon restore fiscal integrity.
    Investors at the margin are slowly moving to purchase gold as well as oil. Concerns about an eventual U.S. sovereign debt downgrade are starting to make the rounds. As those concerns turn into fears one may see a collapse in the value of the dollar and a rush into gold, oil, other commodities and currencies of other countries.
    A doubling in gold and oil prices over the next year and a return to recession is feasible and perhaps likely if the policy portfolio of this administration doesn't undergo a radical change.  Unemployment is over 10% and may move higher. Unemployment hit 10.8% in December 1982.
    Everyone knows what works to bring down unemployment — policies aimed at encouraging economic growth.  Instead of policies to encourage economic growth, the administration and Congress are pushing for large tax hikes on individual taxpayers and businesses in the packages of national health care and cap-and-trade.
    There may be an additional 8% payroll tax on small businesses that do not provide health care and a tax on individuals who choose not to buy insurance. The proposed health care plans are recipes to force businesses out of business and push up the unemployment rate. There are already over 15 million people out of work.
    The policy focus should be on reducing costs for businesses so they can become more competitive in this global economy and hire more workers. A lower-tax-rate environment would encourage more people to start businesses. The administration is pushing precisely the wrong policy prescription for the U.S. economy in this highly competitive global economy.
    The federal deficit for the past fiscal year was $1.4 trillion, and OMB estimates the cumulative deficit at $9 trillion for the next 10 years. Everyone knows that is an understatement of the cumulative deficit with the current wrongheaded policy prescription.
    —Paul Volcker, an adviser to President Barack Obama, was Federal Reserve chairman in the 1980s as unemployment peaked. He knows and understands the policies needed to bring the unemployment rate down.  Silence from him.
    —Larry Summers was an adviser to President Bill Clinton during the 1990s, when the economy boomed. He knows that a smaller market share for federal government expenditures results in a bigger share for the private sector so the private sector can create more jobs.  Silence from him.
    —Christina Romer, chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, clearly understands how harmful it is to even think about tax hikes on businesses and individuals when over 15 million people are out of work and many more are underemployed.  Silence from her.
The economic advisers all serve at the pleasure of the president, but pushing the exact opposite policies for an economy with high unemployment is quite a feat to stomach.  In particular for Summers as he seems to have a habit of saying what he thinks.  It could be that Dr.     Summers decided to stick it out for the good of the economy knowing that if he leaves President Obama will find someone who encourages more federal spending and higher taxes.
    Now that's a scary thought — Summers actually acting as a constraint on President Obama to rein in Obama's propensity to redistribute wealth, increase taxes and increase the market share of federal government outlays.
    If the president wants to grow the economy and have a lower unemployment rate, he could make a public announcement that he is going to allow his three key economic advisers — Summers, Volcker and Romer — to develop a portfolio of economic policies to encourage economic growth and restore fiscal sanity.  If the Obama took that step, the dollar would strengthen and gold and oil prices would tumble.
                • Cosgrove, principal at Econoclast, a Dallas-based capital markets firm, is a professor at the University of Dallas.
© 2009 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved.

WHAT IF:  IRAN SHOWS IT HAS NUKES AND THREATENS ISRAEL WITH THEM, AND ISRAEL RETALIATES WITH A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE?
President Obama is waffling over what to do in Afghanistan.  He now realizes the magnitude of the mistake he made in characterizing it as the more important war to fight.  That worked well in campaign rhetoric, but the Taliban and Afghanistan are going to be an order of magnitude harder to "defeat" (if that is even the right word) than the insurgencies in Iraq.  Why?  Because they are more entrenched, better organized, and actually are supported--or at least hidden, (although via fear) by many of the Pakistanis.  Pakistani nukes are not far from where the Afghan/Pakistan conflicts are occurring.  What if the Taliban gets its hands on a few nukes?  What if Israel strikes at Iran and other countries gang up on Israel in retaliation?

Does anyone trust Barack Obama to know what to do?  I certainly don't.  Would John McCain have known?  I'm not sure--at least he was a military veteran, as compared to a community organizer veteran.  Perhaps Obama can go over there with his teleprompter and make some nice speeches.  The US government official who is showing some appropriate toughness right now is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  Don't bet against her opposing Obama for the 2012 Democratic presidential nomination--IF conditions are right.  The lone voices of reason and sanity are holdover Defense Secretary Gates and the Generals, Petraeus, McChrystal, et. al.  Will Obama listen even if the recommendations are not politically convenient?

WHAT IF?  YOU HAVE TWO CANS OF LIQUID--GASOLINE AND WATER
Imagine you are Barack Obama, and have two cans, unmarked, one of which contains water, and the other contains gasoline.  The economy is burning and you must grab a can.  But you have no experience, and don't know that a simple test is to sniff the fumes to see which is which.  So you grab one and dump it on the burning economy.  Which outcome  do you expect?  Which do you get?  Inexperience is a tough handicap.  Theory is nice, but in practice, theory often fails because of the imperfections of the real world.  Theoretically, Obama might try a little before "dumping the can," but if it is water, when he hoped for it to slow the fire, it has little effect.  If it is gas, the fire grows, and might actually explode, following the stream back to the can, engulfing him in the blaze.  All because he didn't know about the sniff test, and the risks of putting "just a little gasoline on a fire."

WHAT IF?  THE WHITE HOUSE READS THIS
I truly worry about retribution from the White House "disinformation squad" for even writing this edition.  That is a frightening thought for an American.
The EPA is still censoring and suppressing factual positions that global warming is a political hoax.  Al Gore was the front man for the hoax and is getting famous and rich from it.  But he was wrong.  And now the wrong-headed Congress is preparing a Carbon Tax or a Cap & Trade, to solve a problem Americans can ill afford to solve.  The economy is flailing, struggling, and deficits are astronomical and growing.  So what is Obama and Congress working on?  A health care reform that will cost another trillion dollars over the next decade, with no realistic idea how to pay for it other than raise the deficit and print more money.

WHAT IF?  ANOTHER BUBBLE (or two) IS BUILDING, AND COLLAPSE COMING?
Nouriel Roubini, the well-known professor economics at the Stern School of Business at NYU predicted the last collapse as far back as 2005.  He and others are pointing out that the recent stock market runoff is unwarranted.  The past 5-6 extreme recovery runups have been followed by a significant collapse.  The weakness of the US$ has caused "the mother of all carry trade" bubbles. (def:  borrowing a low-yielding currency and lending a high-yielding currency to capitalize on the difference between the rates).  If the dollar reverses its course (and suddenly gets stronger), this collapse will trigger another global economic crisis. 

Worse yet is the commercial real estate bubble that is likely to burst any time soon.  Drive around wherever you live and look at the vacant commercial properties.  They are all over.  Some are 10-15 years, passed by new, better locations.  Others are brand new, but offer far too much capacity.  There are loans backing all of these, and these loans will default too--just like residential mortgages did.  Then there is the likelihood that the current administration will be forced to raise taxes--even if that is just letting the Bush tax cuts expire.  This act alone could cause a double-dip recession in 2010-2011.  Unemployment will average 10% in 2010--and 2011 may not be any better.

WHAT IF? YOU WANT TO SURVIVE THIS TIME AND COME OUT OK?

• Be frugal.  Save, don't spend. 
• Spend on necessities, not frivolities. 
• Invest in "solid" future investments (those with plenty of cash), not risky ones.
• Preserve your cash.  
• Innovate, both personally and in business, in what you do and where/how you do it.  (Remember, proliferation is not innovation.) 
• Get rid of unnecessary complexity--it costs a huge amount--most of the costs hidden. 
• Bet on the best people, the best businesses, and use God-given common sense. 

Those, I promise you are some of the best paths to short term survival and long term prosperity.

Best, John
 
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"The question is NOT: is there life after death, the question is: is there life before death". —Doug Dempsey
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT'S IMPORTANT?

THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT'S IMPORTANT?

THE VALUE OF "DOWNTIME"
This edition of THE ENTERPRISE is late.  We spent last week in FL with friends--a couple about the same age as we were--doing what we enjoyed. The guys played some golf (not so well, but the courses and the weather were magnificent).  The girls "ran around" and shopped.  We had a few nice meals outdoors in places that overlooked a harbor, a lagoon, and a beach.  We saw an air show, and a "parade" of boats (actually in protest of some fishing regulations!).  We watched 7 hours of JOHN ADAMS, the marvelous HBO mini-series that every American, especially the younger generation should watch.  It was a wonderfully done dramatization of the birth of our country, and much, much more.  It really brought history to life for me.

MEMORABLE EVENTS—I
We watched some football on TV too.  (Yes, Ohio State beat Penn State in a big game!)  We dined at home, too. On Sunday, my wife and I went to Mass in Miramar Beach FL, and there, a couple of "small things" registered on my "happiness meter."  Behind the choir were a couple of music stands in the aisle.  Sitting at the frontmost stand in a wheel chair was a lady who had to be less than 5 ft. tall and no less than 90 years old.  During one of the most upbeat hymns, she grabbed a tambourine and started shaking it to the music.  What a joyful sight. 

MEMORABLE EVENTS—II
When we arrived at the church earlier, we met the parish priest--a tall slender graying man, probably in his late 40's, whose name was Father Guido (no joke!), who introduced us to his golden retriever, Bridget, who was standing by him in the entry of the church--soaking wet.  She apparently had found a swimming pool unsecured and gone for a dip.  Nevertheless, there she was, mingling with people arriving at church, hoping for pat on the head or a scratch behind the ears.  At the end of Mass, as Father Guido led the procession from the altar, Bridget trotted up to him and joined the procession.  Father Guido reached down and handed his hymnal to Bridget, who took it in her mouth and carried it out of church right along side him.  Such a simple thing brought smiles to the faces of all who were visiting that Sunday.

Then, last Monday, we watched the approach of hurricane Ida, wondering how close it would come and how bad it would get.  The good news was, not too close, and not too bad.  It broke up into a "tropical storm" and rapidly moved on--leaving lots of rainfall and flooding in some areas. 

NOW WHAT?
Most of all, a week of "total downtime" provides thinking time.  My friend and I are about the same age, and I posed this question to him.  Statistically, when a man reaches our age, he has about 15 years of life left.  Since both of us have "retired" from traditional jobs (he as the Dean of a University), my question to him was:  what do you plan to do for the next 15 years?  I think about that often.  It is not a trivial question. 

For those readers who are younger, the question is equally non-trivial, and perhaps even more important because you have more years in which to do... what?  And to be ... what?

A SERIES OF EIGHT QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
1--How are you? 
When Matthew Kelly asks that at the beginning of a speech, there is usually a spattering of "fine," "good," or "OK," from the audience.  His reply is usually "We'll see!"  ... So I ask you again:  HOW ARE YOU?  What do you say?  What would others around you say?  You see, that simple question is not simple at all.  It is a complex, vexing and meaningful question—followed by either default non-answers like "fine," or by profound answers that really attempt to describe "how you are."

2--What excites you?
Are there parts of your life that excite you?  Are there parts of your work (or avocation) that excites you?  Are there people that excite you, just by being around them?  I realized one day a week or so ago, that life means having a reason to get up in the morning and look forward to something that excites you--either that day, or sometime in the not too distant future.  Without that, why not just sleep the day away?  Some would say that is a sign of depression, and perhaps it is.  We all need something to excite us, and it is NOT the acquisition of material things!  That process might keep us excited for a short time, but even the greatest new acquisition loses its exciting newness pretty fast.  What is more likely to excite us is an experience, a task, a relationship or all of them taken together.

3--What do you want to be? (corollary question:  What do you want to do?)
What are you now?  Is it what you want to be?  If so, why?  If no, why?  These are very important three word questions.  Think about them for a minute or two (silence of 1-2 minutes seems like a long time, and silence is what good thinking time requires).  IF you are not now what you want to be, or if you are not now doing what you want to be doing, why?  What are you going to do about that condition?  How will you become what you want to be or start doing what you want to do?  The simple answer is one step at a time, slowly, steadily, relentlessly.  No big "jumps."  Those are hard, risky, and you might land someplace else entirely.

4--What are your priorities?
Deciding what's important and in what order is arguably the most difficult task in life.  It is equally difficult in business--unless a "boss" defines them for you--but you still need to define your own priority order.  Family, is the answer most people give, as their top priority and then day after day, week after week, they put other things ahead of family.  Work, mundane outside activities, pushy people, urgent but not important things like house-work, yard-work, shopping, paying bills, etc.  Sure, these all must be done, but in what order of importance?  One of Stephen Covey's best "Habits" in 7 Habits of Highly Effective People was "Put First Things First."  Really simple; really true; really not so easy, in today's interruption filled life. 

Ironically, in studies done by Covey's organization more than a decade ago, the one word that always showed up in the top three in many countries other the USA and never showed up here was freedom.  We take it for granted, but many, many other nations wish they had it.  Perhaps we need to pay closer attention to protecting  our freedom.

5--What is the difference between pleasure and happiness?
This simple distinction matters a lot.  That new purchase may give you momentary pleasure, or even longer than momentary if it is something you use a lot.  But does it give you happiness?  I doubt it.  Happiness is a feeling that persists much longer than the momentary enjoyment of a material acquisition.  It revolves around people who matter, doing things that matter, enjoying them now and much beyond now.  Think really hard about the last time you felt truly happy.  When was it?  What was going on around you?  How were you involved? Where and when can you find more occasions like that?

6--Business is just an extension of life
In business, what does your customer want? To be happy and satisfied.  What makes your customer and their customer (your consumer or end user) happy?  The old rules say that:  Rule 1--"The customer is always right; Rule 2--When the customer is wrong, refer to rule one."  I'd say, help the customer to figure out what makes him/her (and his/her customer) happy, and you will be a long way to making everything better, and easier.

7--Why did you deserve success? (or conversely, why did you not?)
It amazes me how this question paralyzes people.  Why did you get that order vs. the competitor?  Why did you win over the competition?If you did not succeed, what caused this--honestly--and don't blame it on someone else.  Whether in business or in life, figuring out why things came out in your favor is a very, very important step.   Understanding why and how failure occurred allows correction with learning and improves the chances of success in the future.  Take the time to think about this.    Find a quiet place (churches are good for this), and really examine the answers to these 7 simple questions.  Then add an 8th one.

8--When and how and why did you delight people who were important to you?
Start with family and loved ones.  Move on to think about friends and acquaintances.  Then think about business partners--customers, associates, suppliers, and so forth.  You see, the most important element in your life, the one thing that gives meaning to everything you do, everything you hope to be, is ... PEOPLE!   People give meaning to life.  People give context to happiness.  People enrich our experiences and enable our happiness.

THERE YOU HAVE IT
Downtime is good for the spirit and the mind.  Most of all, it is good for clearing the mind of clutter and gaining (or regaining) "perspective."  Since this edition will "straddle" last weekend and this one, hopefully readers will find it causes them to stop and think--just as I did this past week.  Find some happiness--and someone to enjoy and share it with.  It makes life so much more enjoyable--and you will want to jump out of bed in the morning.

Best, John

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PS:  While we were gone, our daughter Susie moved in and cared for Kobe (our 11-1/2 year old, 6 lb. Maltese dog) during our trip, and did a great job--but he was one happy dog to have both of us back here to spoil him "full time."  When he was diagnosed with congestive heart disease two years ago, they gave him 6-12, maybe 18 months.  So far, he's made it for two full years, so who knows how long he'll hang around.  As long as he is around, he's  a great one for being "silent" --especially when I am getting profound, like this.  (Our Susie has survived so many life threatening health events, that every day we have her is a blessing.  She is one of about 20-25 people in the world surviving with her type of condition and bypass.)


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"The question is not whether to plan for life after death; the question is whether to plan for life before death."  —Doug Dempsey
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--INSANITY

THE ENTERPRISE--INSANITY

INSANITY--CELEBRATING OVER A RECOVERY THAT WON'T LAST
It's good that we saw growth in the GDP last quarter.  What's not so good is how it happened and what it means for the future.  Companies slowed down inventory liquidation, which had been massive, and in some cases actually built inventory.  That adds to the GDP, even though nothing really good happens until that inventory is sold! The Cash for Clunkers program added 2.2 of the 3.5 points of growth by most experts calculations.  The problem was that 4 of the top 5 new cars bought were foreign made:  Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai, with only Ford making its way into the top 5 badges bought.  Federal spending only added 0.6 points and  the only area where jobs and wages are growing is in government employment, which pays more than private sector employment (using your tax dollars).

INSANITY--HOUSING TAX CREDITS
The government's housing tax credit for first time home buyers is bringing the fraudsters out of the woodwork. According to the Treasury Dep't's inspector general, at least 19,000 applicants didn't buy a house.  Another 74,000 were not first time buyers.  Among the first time buyers who were "fraudulent" were 500 who were under age 18, and one that was 4 years old.  Apparently Mommy & Daddy didn't qualify, so Junior applied to get his $8000 for being a first time house buyer.  At least that part was right.  Once again, your elected officials are spending and wasting your money.

INSANITY--AGREEING TO GIVE AWAY US SOVEREIGN RIGHTS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ll0cvUfcBw    I urge you to go watch this short video.  It is the epitome of how President Obama and our government leaders are prepared to give up American Freedom by way of a treaty which supersedes our Constitution.  Don't believe it?  Take the time to check it out.  Read about it.  While you are on youTube you can listen to the longer sections of his talks on it. "  He's right.  And if our President, elected by a majority of Americans signs this treaty, the USA is bound by it--and that is a disaster for our future.  

INSANITY--WHAT IT REALLY COST FOR "CASH FOR CLUNKERS"
Edmunds.com, the auto web site researched the "normal car sales" during this period and discovered that about 70+% of the "Cash for Clunker" sales would have happened anyway.  When the CEO of Edmunds calculated that each Cash for Clunker sale actually cost $24,000.    Of course he was "attacked" by the White House over this revelation.  Check it out yourself or Google it.   http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/28/autos/clunkers_analysis/index.htm

INSANITY--THE 1900 PAGE HEALTH CARE BILL
Will Kaydos newsletter, THE ECONOMY AND YOU does a fine job of discussing health care this month.  I urge you to go see it and read it.  http://www.rstu.org/economy_and_you/details/essential_facts_about_u.s._healthcare  Will's work is non-partisan and purely analyzed the "insanity" and foolishness of the government's plans.  It's worth the time to read.

INSANITY--FALSIFYING THE FIGURES ABOUT JOBS AND STIMULUS
Even the AP, once an Obama ally, can no longer conceal its contempt for the blatant lying about results, used by this Obama administration to justify its misguided policies.  Of course, AP was attacked by the White House for this "misleading report."  Here is a classic case of how telling a big lie often enough makes many people think it is the truth.  Even major (formerly Democratic supporter) media like the Associated Press finds this one to be a total hoax to support a stimulus that is not working.    When the stimulus does work, it is costing us about $250,000 for each $50,000 job it creates.  This is similar to the cash for clunkers.  Here is a site that allows you to choose which kind of reporting you prefer.
http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/search?ei=UTF-8&c=&p=Stimulus+jobs+overstated

INSANITY--HOW OUR GOVERNMENT WORKS...  AND THINKS
-SENT TO ME BY A FRIEND-- How "Gubmint Works"--A predictive parable
    Once upon a time the government had a vast scrap yard in the middle of a desert.  Congress said, "Someone may steal from it at night."    So they created a night watchman position and hired a person for the job.
    Then Congress said, "How does the watchman do his job without instruction?" So they created a planning department and hired two people, one person to write the instructions, and one person to do time studies.
    Then Congress said, "How will we know the night watchman is doing the tasks correctly?"   So they created a Quality Control department and hired two people.   One to do the studies and one to write the reports.
    Then Congress said, "How are these people going to get paid?"   So they created the following positions, a time keeper and a payroll officer. Then hired two people.
    Then Congress said, "Who will be accountable for all of these people?" So they created an administrative section and hired three people, an Administrative Officer, Assistant Administrative Officer, and a Legal Secretary.
    Then Congress said, "We have had this command in operation for one year and we are $18,000 over budget, we must cutback overall cost."
    So they laid off the night watchman.

NOW slowly...  Let it sink in.      Quietly, we go like sheep to slaughter.
Does anybody remember the reason given for the establishment of the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY .... The Department of Energy was instituted on 8-04-1977.  During the Carter Administration?  Anybody?  Anything?  No?  Didn't think so!  We've spent several hundred billion dollars in support of an agency ...  the reason for which not one person who reads this can remember!  Ready??   It was very simple ... and at the time, everybody thought it very appropriate.  

TO LESSEN OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL.  Hey, good idea, huh???  AND NOW, IT'S 2009 -- 32 YEARS LATER -- AND THE BUDGET FOR THIS "NECESSARY" DEPARTMENT IS AT $24.2 BILLION A YEAR. THEY HAVE 16,000 FEDERAL EMPLOYEES
AND APPROXIMATELY 100,000 CONTRACT EMPLOYEES;  AND LOOK AT THE JOB THEY HAVE DONE!    THIS IS WHERE YOU SLAP YOUR FOREHEAD AND SAY, "WHAT WAS I THINKING?"  Ah, yes -- good ole bureaucracy.

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THE WINNER IN THE INSANITY SWEEPSTAKES IS THE COMPENSATION PLANS FOR MAJOR FINANCIAL COMPANIES

When the top five financial services companies plan to pay out from $16 billion to $30 billion in compensation (yes, billion), which, given that their revenues range from $23 billion to $124 billion translates to compensation payouts of from 24% to 70% (Morgan Stanley) of revenue!  And the per employee amounts range from $70,000 to $740,000 (Goldman Sachs). Yes, those are not typos, in fact a smaller firm, Blackstone, plans to pay $4,000,000 per employee...that is simply "over the top."  No wonder the government intervened.  The problem is that this will keep happening until the cause is corrected.  The cause is management and boards who are simply out of touch with reality.  I believe that is one of the conditions known as insanity.

AND, NOW, OBAMA, ET. AL. PLANS TO TURN OVER THE HEALTH CARE AND ALREADY, THE AUTO INDUSTRY TO THE SAME GOVERNMENT MANAGEMENT PROCESSES THAT LOSE BIG MONEY OPERATING THE RAILROADS AND THE POST OFFICE?

IF THIS HASN'T CONVINCED YOU THAT SOME BIG CHANGES IN WASHINGTON ARE NEEDED, I DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL
While we are waiting for elections to choose some new government leaders, get proactive and write to your Senators and Congressional Representatives.  Complain loudly and warn them about what will happen if they don't "get their act together."  Or just send them a copy of THE ENTERPRISE.

BEST, JOHN

THE ENTERPRISE--A SMORGASBORD--HUMOR AND IRONY

THE ENTERPRISE--A SMORGASBORD--HUMOR AND IRONY

SINCE I TOOK A WEEK OFF TO VISIT A FRIEND IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE RARIFIED AIR HAS CLEARED MY SENSES A BIT
There are so many serious, dangerous and alarming things going on, that sometimes, we forget to maintain our sense of humor.  Many of the things we worry about never come to pass.  Still more of them, we can't do anything much about, anyway.  So, with that, I'll compile an edition with some new vocabulary words that should make you grin, and some new definitions for old words that will make you smile in agreement.  Then I'll wrap with some serious (not so comic) bumper stickers that you've probably already seen floating around the Internet.

THINK OF THIS AS SORT OF A DESSERT BAR--QUITE A FEW CALORIES, BUT NOT MUCH NUTRITIONAL VALUE.
We all need a little of that from time to time.  Now, relax your frown muscles, flex your smile muscles (trivia--it takes many fewer muscles in the face to smile than to frown).
Here are the winners of this year's Washington Post's Mensa Invitational which once again asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition:

1. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period of time.

2. Ignoranus: A person who is both stupid and an a__hole.

3. Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.

4. Reintarnation: Coming back to life as a hillbilly.

5. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.

6. Foreploy: Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting laid.

7. Giraffiti: Vandalism spray-painted very, very high

8. Sarchasm: The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn't get it.

9. Inoculatte: To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.

10. Osteopornosis: A degenerate disease. (This one got extra credit.)

11. Karmageddon: It's like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it's like, a serious bummer.

12. Decafalon (n.): The grueling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.

13. Glibido: All talk and no action.

14. Dopeler Effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.

15. Arachnoleptic Fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you've accidentally walked through a spider web.

16. Beelzebug (n.):  Satan in the form of a mosquito, that gets into your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.

17. Caterpallor (n.): The color you turn after finding half a worm in the fruit you're eating.

The Washington Post has also published the winning submissions to its yearly contest in which readers are asked to supply alternate meanings for common words. And the winners are:

1. Coffee, n. The person upon whom one coughs.

2. Flabbergasted, adj. Appalled by discovering how much weight one has gained

3. Abdicate, v. To give up all hope of ever having a flat stomach.

4. Esplanade, v. To attempt an explanation while drunk.

5. Willy-nilly, adj.  Impotent.

6. Negligent, adj.  Absentmindedly answering the door when wearing only a nightgown.

7. Lymph, v. To walk with a lisp.

8. Gargoyle, n.  Olive-flavored mouthwash.

9. Flatulence, n. Emergency vehicle that picks up someone who has been run over by a steamroller.

10. Balderdash, n. A rapidly receding hairline.

11. Testicle n. A humorous question on an exam.

12. Rectitude, n. The formal, dignified bearing adopted by proctologists.

13. Pokemon, n. A Rastafarian proctologist.

14. Oyster, n. A person who sprinkles his conversation with yiddishisms.

15. Frisbeetarianism, n. The belief that, after death, the soul flies up onto the roof and gets stuck there.

16. Circumvent, n. An opening in the front of boxer shorts worn by Jewish men.


BUMPER STICKERS HAVE THE RING OF TRUTH THAT IS NOT SPOKEN OFTEN ENOUGH
I usually reserve the "comic emails" I get to a limited audience of readers.  This batch of bumper stickers was simply too "rich a source" to ignore.  I only chose the most relevant ones, but it was easy.  I omitted many more "pointed jabs," even though I was sorely tempted.

THIS FIRST ONE IS MY PET PEEVE--EVERY TIME I USE AN ATM, OR HEAR A PHONE MENU....ARRGGHH...
I am in America, right?  In my hometown, in the middle of America--not even in one of those coastal "blue states" where every newly arrived minority takes precedence over everyone who's been there for a couple of decades--or centuries.  Or one of those border states where the concentration of illegal immigrants probably outnumbers the American citizens. 

WHY IN THE HELL SHOULD I HAVE TO PRESS "1" FOR ENGLISH?

WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION AND CENSORSHIP--MARKS OF A NEW GOVERNMENT ETHIC
It's good that the White House has officially declared "War on Fox."    Since the "messiah" came into office, the other news outlets have "Deified him" and ignored any gaffes or flip-flops or other mistakes.  There have been plenty of them, but only Fox has aired them.  Management at the other news outlets and the political bias of the reporters and on-air personalities are so heavily liberal that this is not surprising.  Nowhere (except in the annals of past media history) is it written that reporting the news had to be unbiased.  It has always been biased somewhat, but never so much as now, and certainly, never so transparent.  However, when Obama appointees start suppressing dissenting view on "climate change" and start collecting email addresses of those who seem to be spreading what they call "misinformation," it is time to worry. 

"THE PROBLEM WITH SOCIALISM IS THAT YOU EVENTUALLY RUN OUT OF OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY" —Margaret Thatcher


IT IS TIME TO STRIKE FEAR IN THE HEARTS OF GOVERNMENT-- BECAUSE THEY ARE SURELY RUNNING AMOK
The coming 2010 elections are a time for 'WE THE PEOPLE" to once again assert our understanding of what is going on and bring some common sense to our government by electing a large number of new Representatives and Senators—people who understand that no entity can continue to spend more than it takes in and remain solvent and responsible, and that hard working people like to  enjoy and retain the fruits of their work, and that the "underclass" who is dependent on government largess, can only be supported on the backs of those who actually create value and earn money for it--and the government is the entity that subverts this principle to enhance its power.

"WHEN THE PEOPLE FEAR THEIR GOVERNMENT THERE IS TYRANNY. WHEN THE GOVERNMENT FEARS THE PEOPLE THERE IS LIBERTY." —Thomas Jefferson


HOW WILL DEMOCRATS STAND UP TO TERRORISTS WHEN THEY CAN'T EVEN FACE FOX NEWS?

Who's Behind White House War On Fox?

By MICHELLE MALKIN
Posted 06:18 PM ET

White House interim communications director Anita Dunn assumed the role of lead Fox News Channel-basher this weekend. The attack was a dud.  The left-leaning Nation magazine ridiculed President Obama's press shop for turning him into the "whiner-in-chief." AOL media columnist Jeff Bercovici called the war on Fox a "loser's strategy" that "signals weakness." And that's the friendly fire.

Dunn found refuge in rival CNN's green zone, where she blasted Fox News as a "research arm of the Republican Party." Unhappy with headline-generating Fox News hosts who have wrested control of the news cycle from Team Obama, Dunn complained about "opinion journalism masquerading as news."  Well, that is certainly an apt description of an Obama-sympathizing "news" segment on "The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer," which purported to "fact-check" a Saturday Night Live skit mocking the president's lack of accomplishments.

Yes, the "real" news fact-checked the fake news to cover for Obama's deficiencies. Zero complaints from the White House communications office about that. Or about authentic CNN journalist Anderson Cooper using his prime-time show to make vulgar sexual jokes about Tea Party activists.  Or about the joint White House-ABC News health care reform infomercial that aired earlier this summer.

Some "opinion journalism" is more equal than others.

Debates about the blurred lines between opinion and journalism are all well and good. But don't the talking-points crafters in the Oval Office have something better to do than carp about the talking points they don't like hearing on the one cable network that hasn't been completely overrun by Obama sycophants?  Where are the seasoned press gurus to help Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama appear more presidential and less petty and thuggish?

The corruptocratic affiliations of Obama's communications team are illuminating. His press shop can't rise above the fray because they've been entrenched in the Beltway fray for years. They can't help themselves.  Democratic media consultant Dunn's claim to fame is her decade-long service as chief strategist for disgraced Democrat and former Senate Majority Leader turned health care lobbyist Tom Daschle.

She was in the thick of his failed re-election campaign as Daschle asserted a bogus property-tax homestead exemption claim on his $1.9 million D.C. mansion — which he listed as his primary residence despite voting in South Dakota and claiming it as his primary residence in order to run for re-election.  And Dunn was with Daschle during the years he failed to pay gobs of taxes on a luxury car and driver provided to him by crony donor Leo Hindery Jr. 

After working as communications manager for Obama's political action committee and then as senior adviser to his 2008 presidential campaign, Dunn "trained" White House press secretary and anti-Fox sniper Robert Gibbs.  Deputy communications director Dan Pfeiffer is another protege of Dunn's, who worked with her on the disastrous 2004 Daschle re-election campaign.

Dunn is married to Robert Bauer, a Washington, D.C., corporate lawyer who served as general counsel for Obama for America. It was Bauer who lobbied the Justice Department unsuccessfully last fall to pursue a criminal probe of American Issues Project, an independent group that sought to run an ad spotlighting Obama's ties to Weather Underground terrorist Bill Ayers.  It was Bauer who attempted to sic the DOJ on GOP donor Harold Simmons and sought his prosecution for funding the ad. It was Bauer who tried to bully television stations across the country to compel them to pull the spot. All on Obama's behalf.

While conservatives revel in the left's hysteria over Fox News Channel's dominance, more of Obama's friends hope he'll wipe his nose and man up. Fat chance. As long as he's surrounded by career flacks who demonize dissent to distract from the Beltway stench, the White House will remain an all-whine zone.   © 2009 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

'FAIRNESS' ISN'T GIVING MY MONEY TO LAZY PEOPLE.



GOVERNMENT DOESN'T WORK.  PLEASE RETURN MY TAXES.


MY CLOSING SHOT--ANOTHER ONE I JUST CANNOT IGNORE:
To all those who abhor or dislike George W. Bush.  I did not say he was good. I said this guy is just as bad, and maybe worse--but differently.  I also did not say that John McCain would have been better--just different--but perhaps different is important ways.  America ignored the two most qualified candidates when it bypassed Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney.  In that race, Hillary probably would have won--and (I can't believe I'm saying this), she would have been far better for all Americans that Barack Obama.  We get another shot at this in 2012.  I hope the choices, and the decision we make are better.

HOW LONG BEFORE YOU ADMIT THAT OBAMA WAS A MISTAKE?


THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK.  NO HEAVY THINKING, JUST A LITTLE THIN MOUNTAIN AIR, VERBAL  HUMOR AND POLITICAL HONESTY.  REFRESHING, ISN'T IT?

Best, John
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"The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning, but without understanding."                                                               —Louis D. Brandeis
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--HOW DEEP IN DEBT IT "TOO DEEP?" & "WHAT CAN I DO?"

THE ENTERPRISE--HOW DEEP IN DEBT IT "TOO DEEP?" & "WHAT CAN I DO?"

EXCESSIVE DEBT DEVASTATED OR WOUNDED MANY COMPANIES & FAMILIES
Now the USA--the entire country is doing the same things.  This has dire implications for all Americans--when YOUR elected representatives spend far beyond OUR means, and have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how this will ever get remedies.  There are huge implications for US businesses too.  This edition of THE ENTERPRISE will explore the implications, personally, professionally and for your business (or employer).  When families take on too much debt, bad things happen.  Sometimes a "workout" plan can be agreed upon.  Sometimes, not.  Such a mistake is usually a life altering experience, and might ruin a family or individual for years to come, making them unable to get credit of any kind.

WHEN  BUSINESSES TAKE ON TOO MUCH DEBT--BAD THINGS HAPPEN
When businesses take on too much debt, they suffer under the burden of excessive interest costs, AND lenders usually put covenants in place that require an earnings stream that will support the debt.  Lately, more covenants have been broken than have remained in compliance.  When the covenant is violated, the lender can "call the loan" or require a "refinancing" IF a lender can be found.  These kind of finance deals are usually very expensive--in fees, and in interest rates, and then new covenants are still set, that must be met.  If the business continues to fail, it is usually forced into either Ch. 11 of the bankruptcy code (reorganization--applicable IF there is "hope" and a "debtor-in-possession" (DIP) lender can be found.  If this is not the case, it goes directly to Chapter 7 (liquidation--in which all of the assets are liquidated and the proceeds distributed to debtors in a "priority order" where "secured lenders" come first and stockholders, and unsecured lenders come last, frequently getting little to no recovery from their investments.

CREDIT CARDS ARE LIKE DRUGS--ENJOY THE "HIGH" NOW, AND PAY FOR IT LATER
Most of us use credit cards.  The vast majority of readers of THE ENTERPRISE understand the problem of getting in debt too deeply on credit cards. When a credit card user pays only the minimum payment required each month, the interest piles up faster than the payment reduced the debt.  Credit card interest is typically 20% (annual rate) or more.  Interest is how credit card companies make money.  Getting in too deep is how many Americans destroy their financial well-being.  When last I checked, the average household credit card debt in the US was over $6000, which is also more than the average working American makes in a month.  Worse yet, car companies discovered that they could lease cars to people wherein the monthly payments covered the depreciation of the car over that time, and enabled people to drive more expensive cars than they could have afforded to buy.  The problem with this, is that at the end of the lease, the person leasing the car has nothing to show for the money spent except the use of the car for the term of the lease.  It is like "drug addiction" of another kind.

HOW TO DEAL WITH THIS
Radio personality and author Dave Ramsey has a simple theme.  Cut back your standard of living and pay off your debts, then "cut up" your credit cards and stop using them.   This is great advice, and will lead to a much more financially sound life strategy.  Financier Bernie Madoff is now in prison, likely for the rest of his life, for taking people's money claiming it was being invested, and then using the new money coming in to meet old obligations.  This scheme (called a Ponzi Scheme) worked pretty well when markets were rising continuously.  When markets turned down, Madoff did not have enough money to meet the obligations and request for money from investors.  He was "broke."  When a Ponzi scheme is "broke" there is not enough money to pay back the creditors.  LIquidate what assets there are and distribute the proceeds, and "that's all there is."  Period.  And there is no other solution for that.

SOCIAL SECURITY IS A "PONZI SCHEME" --OPERATED BY THE GOVERNMENT
Social Security does exactly what Madoff did.  Take new money and use it to pay old obligations.  The infamous Social Security "lock box" was a figment of someone's imagination.  It never existed.  New Social Security money went into the general funds of the US Treasury to be spend on whatever came up next.  Thus, we must find a way to "make good" on the promises of a flawed system--which will not be easy.  SS was created and retirement age of 65 was created when life expectancy was 63.  Now, nearly 75 years later, life expectancy is in the high 70's and retirement age has barely moved.  It needs to move up to 70 ASAP, and possibly beyond that.  Early retirement with actuarial reductions in benefits can still be made available starting at age 62 to help bridge the transition period
.

IN CASE YOU DON'T THINK OUR NATIONAL DEBT PROBLEM IS SERIOUS, READ THIS:
Taking the National Debt Seriously

In 2009 about 40% of income taxes will go towards debt interest payments.

By LAWRENCE KADISH

[Ed note:  My emphasis was added to this excerpt.] 

If you think those town hall meetings over health care were fierce, wait until Americans come to understand the threat to our national financial survival posed by the interest on the government's credit card.  When the government spends more than its revenue, there is a budget deficit. These deficits are paid for by Washington selling interest bearing Treasury securities. If the government were ever to default on its promise to pay periodic interest payments or to repay the debt at maturity, the United States economy would plunge into a level of chaos that would make the Lehman bankruptcy look like a nonevent.

It is the interest on the national debt that makes our future unstable. The exploding size of that burden suggests that, short of devaluing the dollar and taking a large bite out of the middle class through inflation and taxation, there is no way to ever pay down that bill.

As of Sept. 30, 2009, the national debt was almost $12 trillion and interest on that debt was $383 billion for the year, according to the Treasury Department's Bureau of the Public Debt. The Congressional Budget Office on Oct. 7 estimated the 2009 budget deficit to be almost $1.4 trillion (about 10% of GDP). In August, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimated total government revenues at about $2 trillion. The revenue estimate included $904 billion from individual income taxes. This means the cost of interest on the debt represented more than 40 cents of every dollar that came in from individual income taxes.

Except for a few years in the late 1990s, for decades Washington has spent more than it has taken in each year and borrowed the rest. Taxpayer dollars that could have paid off debt each year have instead been spent on interest to finance debt. Unfortunately, that's a vicious cycle that will likely only get worse.  The OMB projects deficits of about $9 trillion over the next 10 years. If that occurs, the national debt will be almost $21 trillion by 2019. However, the actual amount could be much higher. The OMB also optimistically projects $13.5 trillion of revenue increases over the next decade, while minimizing the inevitable rise in interest rates that will come with an expanding national debt. ...

In stark but simple terms, unless Americans are made aware of this financial crisis and demand accountability, the very fabric of our society will be destroyed. Interest rates and interest costs will soar and government revenues will be devoured by interest on the national debt. Eventually, most of what we spend on Social Security, Medicare, education, national defense and much more may have to come from new borrowing, if such funding can be obtained. Left unchecked, this destructive deficit-debt cycle will leave the White House and Congress with either having to default on the national debt or instruct the Treasury to run the printing presses into a policy of hyperinflation.

It is against this background that Washington is now debating whether to create social programs it can't afford.   Americans need to take notice, stand up, and remind our elected officials that in a democracy the people can change bad leaders.

Mr. Kadish, a real estate investor, is a trustee of the Claremont and Hudson institutes.

======================

I'M REALLY NOT TRYING TO DEPRESS READERS--YOU JUST NEED TO KNOW THE FACTS.

I'd love to come up with some positive spin to put on all of this.  The problem is that a "positive spin" would be as dishonest and pretending we can borrow and borrow and never have to "pay the piper." (The "piper" in our case right now is China, who holds about $2 Trillion of US debt.)  For those who think the government "stimulus" is the answer to our woes, study the chart below.  It shows what a dismal failure the stimulus has been (and will continue to be).  And no matter how much President Obama speaks to the contrary, this chart was compiled by Christine Romer, head of his Council of Economic Advisors, so he has to know the truth.  It's not working, and it won't work.  Government stimulus spending has a zero to negative effect on job creation in the economy.  That was also based on one of her earlier studies.



FOR THOSE WHO ARE GETTING DEPRESSED BY ALL THIS, I HAVE  A REMEDY.

THE MATERIAL BELOW FEATURES MATTHEW KELLY.  He speaks at length about knowing what's right, and doing what's right.    The long piece listed first has several religious areas, because it is being delivered to a Catholic Church group--BUT--the principles he talks about are as relevant and important in any setting.  IF YOU WANT TO BECOME MORE POSITIVE, AND KNOW WHAT TO DO IN THESE TROUBLED TIMES, LISTEN TO HIS ADVICE.  (Plus it is entertaining!)


I PROMISE YOU, THESE WILL BE WORTH THE TIME TO WATCH.
If you can devote 37 minutes, this one will change your life...and how you think about your  life, and how you dream about your life.  If you want to spend the time, watch this, and don't bother to read any further.  Start it at the 10:00 minute mark, and watch it to the 47:00 minute mark.  (If you are put off by the few "more religious" parts," listen anyway...)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NY9wGSuF5Bo&feature=related

For those who are pressed for time and don't want to "change your life" too much, here are some shorter snippets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxHIoHyTE8I&feature=related
How do you see the world?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js087b-YdW4&NR=1
Time the most valuable resource?  NO!  "Personal Energy" is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvY_cf8_dR0
Are you ready to find your dreams and follow them?

FINALLY, A LITTLE PARABLE ABOUT HOW WE GET OUT OF THIS MESS
That's plenty for this week.  PLEASE, READ AND HEED...UNDERSTANDING THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEMS IS THE FIRST STEP TO SOLVING THEM.  THEN WE NEED TO ELECT SOME NEW LEADERS, MEN & WOMEN WHO WILL TACKLE THE HARD PROBLEMS, WITH OUR SUPPORT.  THERE IS NO SHORT CUT OR EASY WAY OUT OF THIS ONE.

BEST, JOHN


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FINALLY, A "GRIN" FOR ALL THOSE WHO APPRECIATE A STORY WITH A MORAL. THERE IS WISDOM TO BE GAINED IN THE BARNYARD:


John was in the fertilized egg business.

He had several hundred young layers (hens), called 'pullets,'and ten roosters to fertilize the eggs.

He kept records, and any rooster not performing went into the soup pot and was replaced.   

This took a lot of time,  so he bought some tiny bells and attached them to his roosters.

 Each bell had a different tone,  so he could tell from a distance, which rooster was performing.

 Now, he could sit on the porch  and fill out an efficiency report by just listening to the bells.    

John's favorite rooster, old Butch,  was a very fine specimen, but this morning he noticed old Butch's bell hadn't rung at all!

When he went to investigate, he saw the other roosters were busy chasing pullets, bells-a-ringing, but the pullets, hearing the roosters coming, could run for cover.

To John's amazement, old Butch had his bell in his beak, so it couldn't ring.  

He'd sneak up on a pullet, do his job and walk on to the next one.

John was so proud of old Butch,  he entered him in the Renfrew County Fair and he became an overnight sensation among the judges.     

The result was the judges not only awarded old Butch the

No-Bell Piece Prize

but they also awarded him the

"Pullet-surprise" as well.

Clearly old Butch was a politician in the making.

Who else but a politician could figure out how to win two highly coveted awards by being the best at sneaking up on the populace and screwing them when they weren't paying attention.

Vote carefully in the future... the bells are not always audible.

 

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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--"JUST THE FACTS, MA'AM"

THE ENTERPRISE--"JUST THE FACTS, MA'AM"
Note: The subtitle is a famous quote from the old TV series Dragnet, which many readers are too young to even remember.  Many "brilliant decisions" are made based on the wrong facts, or an absence of facts, and thus have terrible outcomes.  Thus, a word to the wise, "get the (real) facts!"

I'M NOT SURE WHAT TO WRITE ABOUT
This is a very disturbing time.  Lots is happening, much of it unprecedented, and a lot of it, not so good.  The recession has bottomed, but the recovery is not recovering--yet.  More people continue to lose jobs.  Spending is slow, soft, cautious.  But life must go on.  And so must this edition.

INEPT LEADERS AND STUPIDITY--OR BOT
The stupidity being exhibited by our elected leaders is appalling.  Their complete failure to see the consequences of their actions is even more staggering.  Even French leader Sarkozy tagged President Obama for his inexplicable failure to bring up the Iranian secret nuclear facility at the UN Security Council over which Obama "presided" this time.  Instead, Obama brought it up in Pittsburgh shortly thereafter at the G-20 meeting.  Sarkozy's exact quote:  "President Obama, I support the Americans' outstretched hand.  But what did the international community gain from these offers of dialogue?  Nothing."  I am proud of the French leader for calling out Obama on his misdirection and useless rhetoric.

THE GENERAL MAY JUST QUIT--BUT I DOUBT IT!
Vice President Biden meddles with military leadership because Obama wants to avoid areas about which he knows little, and has even less idea what to do.  Obama met with his own choice to lead American military in Afghanistan, Gen. McChrystal only once until this week, when critics wondered, rightfully so, how the Commander in Chief could operate without any first hand briefing from his leader.  But Biden had the solution.  Fight only al Qaeda and not the Taliban. This politically expedient, but militarily and practically crazy idea has great political chops.  You can't "lose" a fight you walk away from--or can you?  Perhaps in walking away the greater loss will come later.  The worst thing that is happening is that Obama and his minions are ceding the US global leadership position to a bunch of crazies, while they are creating a nation of dependency-seeking supporters.  Who says he "loves America?"  Sounds more like he "hates it."  At least that is what I perceive, based on what he has said publicly in many foreign speeches, and on what he is doing (and not doing).

"America is the greatest country in the world;  and we are here to change it."  —Barack Obama during his Presidential campaign.

DEMOCRATS DON'T HAVE A CORNER ON INEPTNESS
I wonder why some of the GOPs intelligent and reasonable "fixes" for our health care system only surface now--when the Democrats are inches from the goal line of creating a government operated health care system--which will eventually both break our nation and work to all of our disfavor--after a brief honeymoon of help for the distressed.  We will all become distressed.  Where were these GOP plans when they controlled Congress--and the White House--for Bush's terms?  I guess they were not important enough to legislate then.  Why?  Because the "old timers" in the GOP, for the most part, are almost as bad as the old-timers in the Democratic party.  They are just wrong differently.  The rants of Limbaugh, Hannity, Coulter, et. al. grate on the nerves as they solve nothing, but inflame the hearts and minds of decent people.

"The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning, but without understanding."                                                             —Louis D. Brandeis

IF I COULD HAVE A THIRD PARTY TO BELONG TO, I WOULD--"THE NEW AMERICAN PARTY"
Both of our current political parties are a mess.  The Democratic leaders, mostly aging and also mostly very left-leaning liberals are going to ruin the USA for a generation to come.  The reasonable, moderate Democrats are not a large enough group to change that.  The Republicans are now in the "obstructionist" mode, since they have no clear leader and few well articulated alternatives to the Obama/Congressional folly.  Does anyone see a really exciting new Republican leader on horizon. (Is it Tim Pawlenty?  Need to do some homework on him!)

Unfortunately money, history and the entrenched interests make the likelihood of a successful third party so low as to be unrealistic.  The Libertatirans can't do it.  Ross Perot's millions couldn't do it.  Ralph Nader's persistence couldn't do it.  AND YET, THAT IS WHAT AMERICA NEEDS.  MASS DEFECTIONS FROM THE TWO POLARIZED AND PARTISAN EXTREMES TO FORM A NEW AMERICAN PARTY.  Fiscally responsible and conservative and socially moderate people, (I think), make up the vast majority in America.  How can we get a voice in our government over these idiots we elected to Congress and the White House?  IF ANY READERS HAVE AN ANSWER TO THIS, I'D LOVE TO HEAR IT. First, we need to replace as many of the current misguided elected officials as possible.  Our chance to do that next is Nov. 2010.

OBAMA'S GOT "PORK FLU"--When you don't know what to do, "throw money at the problem."


IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, I'LL PUBLISH THE "PLATFORM" (or at least most of it) for the NEW AMERICAN PARTY!

ON TO OTHER TOPICS--A LIST OF FACTS TO CONSIDER--(OR DISPUTE IF YOU WISH)
--Fact:  The US budget deficit for the past year was $1.4 TRILLION,  a record level by far.  That is NOT GOOD!

--Fact:  Over 70% of Americans will not believe the recovery is here until employment reverses and job losses stop--replaced by gains.  It matters little who tells them otherwise (Source: BIGresearch's American Pulse Survey of over 4000 Americans.)

--Fact:  You can cost reduce your way to survival but not to prosperity.  That takes growth in revenue (not government largess) which is largely derived from innovation--which takes brains and guts, two things that are scarce these days. 

--Fact:  You cannot win by watching your competitor and reacting.  You'll be slow and late every time.  In business (and in most sports), the attacker has a natural advantage.

--Fact:  The "outs" always have an advantage over the "ins" no matter which party is which, because they can say they'd do better--but they seldom do.

--Fact:  Companies do a lousy job choosing leaders too.  CEO turnover is at 15%/year and growing.  New CEOs typically last about 18 months.  That's simply deplorable, considering that most of them had been successful CEOs somewhere else before.  e.g., Longaberger (Baskets) near Columbus is on its 5th CEO in 5 years. 

--Fact:  Promoting a great COO to CEO is often a mistake.  CEOs have different jobs and need different skills than COOs. The COO make sure 'the trains run on time--profitably"  The CEO decides where they should be going, and whether they should be trains at all.

--Fact:  There are only two way to balance a budget:  less spending or more income.  That's it.

--Fact:  A weak US dollar results in a hidden tax on every American.

--Fact:  Barack Obama is more "pitchman" than President--and when the pitch doesn't make sense (like the Chicago Olympic bid) he has nowhere to turn.  His solution to every problem is to "make a speech."  Perhaps he should stop talking and start learning the consequences of his actions before he launches them with yet another speech.

--Fact:  Inspiration must be built upon reality and truth to have any lasting effect.

--Fact:  Nuclear weapons are here to stay, and if Obama insists on disarming the US, it will be the first major country to be attacked with Nukes.  Who has them now and who will have them soon is a growing and disconcerting list.

--Fact:  The average Federal employee earns $119,982 per year in compensation and benefits. 

--Fact:  The average Private sector employee earns $59, 909 per year in compensation and benefits.

--Fact:  To cover this disparity, $100 billion/year is taken from the private sector in income taxes, and Federal employees only make up 2 million of the 20 million that work in the public sector.

--Fact:  The Federal Bureaucracy grows and grows to no good purpose:  The Department of Energy was formed in 1977 to make us "independent of foreign oil."  Now it has grown to a bureaucracy of 18,000 people and a $25 Billlion annual budget and we are as dependent on foreign oil as ever--or more so.

--Fact:  President Obama lied repeatedly in his speech on health care (documented by numerous news sources), but it was socially incorrect for a Congressman to call him out on just one of his lies.

--Fact:  ACORN is a corrupt organization and it has very close ties to the President, and has had for years, by his own admission in public speeches. 

--Fact: Charles Rangel is the leader of a major Congressional committee and has violated several laws on conduct and taxes, but still holds this prestigious seat. 

--Fact: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is a tax evader who now governs the IRS, only because he was caught and allow to make restitution.

--Fact:  When the Federal Reserve simply "prints more money" to pay the government's bills, the result must necessarily be inflation, since there was no underlying value to that money.  Inflation is another hidden tax on all Americans.

--Fact:  Most, if not all, government stimulus spending has a NEGATIVE effect on the economy acting as a non-stimulus after the initial money is spent because it replaces private sector investment with taxes to fund the stimulus

--Fact:  There are not enough doctors and nurses to meet the needs now, and increasing the number of people covered for medical care will worsen that problem.  Cutting the pay of doctors to help control health care costs will result in fewer doctors, making the shortage even worse.

--Fact:  America is aging and Americans will consume even more health care in the future than in the past.  In a decade, "minorities" in the aggregate, will be the majority.  In a few decades, there will be no more "blacks and whites, etc."  There will be more and more "tans" as races intermarry and reproduce.

--Fact:  One of America's greatest vulnerabilities to attack is the "Information and Communication Infrastructure," including the Internet, cell phones and the millions of computers which control almost everything from the power grid to the air traffic control system to the banking system to Wall Street to every form of broadcast media...and more.  AND NO ONE IS SECURING THIS.

--Fact:  There are not really 46 million "uninsured" Americans that need to be insured.  Many (10+ million) are here illegally; many (17+/- million) can afford insurance and don't want to pay for it; many are in transition.  The real number of "desperately uninsured" is more like 15+/- million--maybe.  Thus the question:  Do we need to dramatically change the system for the other 250+ million to accommodate this 15 million?

--Fact:  Many, many "true scientists" believe the "Global Warming" scare is a myth, totally unfounded in scientific fact, and constructed on anecdotal evidence for political purposes.   e.g., CO2 is NOT a greenhouse gas.  It is necessary for plant and human life on earth.  Passing a Cap & Trade system will assess another huge hidden tax on all Americans.

THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS NO CORNER ON STUPIDITY--STATES CAN DO IT TOO.
    --Fact:  Stupidity can be local as well as national.  e.g., Columbus Ohio is tearing down a perfectly good, multi-million dollar mall downtown, which was the showcase just over a decade ago, and now has been eclipsed by a series of suburban malls.  First rule:  people would rather shop near where they live rather than near where they work--especially in urban/suburban cities.  Places like NYC where many people live in the same general areas where they work are the exception.  Columbus couldn't find any better use for this magnificent structure than to tear it down and make a downtown park.  Any bets on how long before that park (which generates zero tax revenue) becomes an economic millstone and a security/crime problem.  I give it two years.

    --Fact:  Misguided governors can damage states faster that anything.  Ohio had one for eight years.  Bob Taft was his name and he crippled Ohio because he wouldn't or couldn't stand up to much of anyone, on much of anything.  So now Ted Strickland takes over, and he balances an unbalanced budget by using one time Federal stimulus money ($5B of it) to plug a gap, and it still doesn't balance.  So he decides casinos are the answer (casinos are a form of taxes on the weak-willed).  But now the casinos are under legal dispute, so the gap will have to be filled by stopping tax relief that was passed to undo some of Taft's mistakes.  It is a comedy of errors.  Meanwhile, Ohio suffers.

    --Fact:  Take California, please?  The land of "fruits and nuts" is being taken over by the "fruits and nuts."  Please, no California "bailout!"

FINAL FACT:  No newsletter is accurate all the time.  And, as Mark Twain once said, "All generalizations are false, including this one."

Best, John


-----------------------------------------------------------
John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS? A SLOW, JOBLESS RECOVERY

THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS? A SLOW, JOBLESS RECOVERY

At the end of this edition, is a brief future forecast from Stratfor .http://www.stratfor.com .   More of its forecasts will follow as they come out.

The excerpted piece from John Mauldin is long, and takes some concentration, but his points are solid, scary and well documented.  I wouldn't include something this long if I didn't think it was important reading.  First some "quick hits."

CONCERNING TIDBITS AND THE "LIKELY LOSERS"

• Japanese car makers Honda and Toyota are symptomatic of the  currency problem with the Yen near 90 to the US dollar.  Many Japanese manufacturers will suffer, and this is an exchange rate not likely to change for a long time.  Other countries are suffering too, but Japan more than most at this time.  Losers: American Consumers and Japanese manufacturers. (Remember a WEAK DOLLAR IS A HIDDEN TAX)

• Finally someone is "whistle-blowing" on the irresponsible "ratings agencies" (Moody's, S & P, et. al. who were the real culprits in helping cause the financial crisis.  How they could have rated some of that garbage a AAA is beyond belief.  Some of them should suffer, pay fines and go to jail.   Losers:  American investors and many global investors who trust these investment ratings.

• Roman Polanski--child molester/rapist and generally bad guy is being supported by a wide range of Hollywood celebrities.  This is living proof of how the movie industry has legions of morally bankrupt people.  Of course, the movies they are making show that too.  Losers:  Everyone who has morals and cares about the "entertainment" that is being created.

• And then there is Michael Moore, the fat fool of cinema with another of his propaganda films.  It will be widely distributed and some of his fellow fools will give it great praise.  These are the same people who gave Al Gore an Oscar.  Consider the source--then dismiss them.  Losers: Michael Moore and Al Gore.  What goes around, comes around.  Both will be exposed and the phonies, posers and propagandists they are--someday.

• A recent WSJ article entitled "Hate Calculus?  Try Counting Cow Carbon," pointed out the foolishness of the recent move to "count the carbon impact" of everything.    It is impossibly flawed, vague and arguably non-scientific. I don't care if Wal-Mart is for this; Wal-Mart is dead wrong.  It is about to saddle suppliers with another huge project to make it look good and feel good in the media.  Remember the big RFID project.  Can anyone tell us the ROI on that one. Losers:  Wal-Mart customers, and ultimately the American people if this lunacy becomes law--which Cap & Trade threatens to become.

• Panetta the "punching bag."  Why doesn't he tell the Obama camp to either get out of his face, or find some flunky to put in charge of the CIA,  So much damage was done under Clinton's regime, and now it continues.  Pretty soon, the only reliable intelligence services will be the "private ones," where real (smart, determined) people dig into the areas and secrets.  But then, who'd want another "Blackwater-type" scandal? Losers:  Americans and future elected officials who will have lousy, politically correct intelligence--instead of the cold, hard facts they need for decisions.

• Why are Jews liberals?  That is the title of a new book and several articles.  It beats me.  Maybe one of my Jewish friend and readers can tell me.  Maybe it is their "persecution complex" manifesting itself--the Jews have certainly had their share of that.  Or maybe it is because they are wealthier than most Americans (or so the belief goes).  As it stands, Obama policy will leave Israel so far out on a limb they can drop a bomb on Iran from there.  Talk about an appeaser President hoping someone else will do his "dirty work."  Losers:  Jewish-Americans, and the people of Israel.

• Doesn't anyone remember the array of Jimmy Carter's era of stupidity.  Doesn't anyone in Washington understand how "protectionism" in global trade backfires?  For that matter, is there anyone in a position of power in Washington who understands how business works, or has actually run a for profit business successfully and created real wealth?  Or are they all just "redistributors?"  Losers:  All Americans, because as American businesses are damaged, jobs go away.

THAT IS MY SEGUE TO THE PROBLEM WITH THIS "RECOVERY"--JOBS (OR RATHER THE LACK THEREOF)
I usually think John Mauldin is brilliant, but also is too "bearish" about the future.  Right now, I still think he is brilliant, but I am leaning toward the fact that we may be seeing the start of a "new normal."  That would be scary, but possible.

I will post a heavily excerpted part of John's recent newSletter to show why the "recovery" we are all wondering about is not so near, and not so exciting either.  Why?  Joblessness.  The areas in bold are my "emphasis added" so they will stand out.  (You can subscribe to this one yourself--it's free: JohnMauldin@InvestorsInsight.com)

I keep hoping that John is too pessimistic, but I can't find the flaw in his premises or his data.  Can you? 

If not, my suggestion is that you hunker down for one of the least enjoyable recoveries in modern history. 

Conditions have (mostly) stopped getting worse, although over a quarter million people lost their jobs this past month--and I bet they'd say things are not improving.  Retail is still in the dumper and projections (backed by credible surveys by firms like BIGresearch http://www.bigresearch.com) predict that consumers will spend less, bargain hunt more and generally keep their spending low during the coming 4Q--which includes Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas.
==================

Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter
Welcome to the New Normal
by John Mauldin
September 25, 2009
©John Mauldin

In this issue:
What We See
And What We Don't See
The Statistical Recovery
A Double-Dip Recession?
Welcome to the New Normal

Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look deeper into the Statistical Recovery and find yet more reasons to be concerned about near-term deflation. This week we consider all things unemployment and ponder the need to create at least 15 million jobs in the next five years to return to a full-employment economy - and the implications for both the US and world economies if we don't.

What We See

First, the unemployment rate is now officially at 9.7%. [Ed. note:  it just hit 9.8%] We are approaching the official high we last saw at the end of the double-dip1982 recession. In the chart below, notice that unemployment rose throughout 1980 and then began to decline, before rising rapidly as the economy entered the second recession within two years. Also notice the rapid drop in unemployment following that recession, as opposed to the recessions of 1991-92 and 2001-02, which have been characterized as jobless recoveries. Unemployment was as low as 3.8% in 2000 and saw a cycle low of 4.4% in early 2007.

(For the record, all this data is available on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. There is a treasure trove of data. They are quite open about what they do and how they do it. When I call to ask a question, they are quite helpful. How people interpret the data is not their fault.)

 
 
 

This headline unemployment number (9.7%) is what we see when we read the paper. What we typically don't see is the real number of unemployed. For instance, if you have not actively looked for a job in the last four weeks, even if you would like one, you are not counted as unemployed. You are called a "marginally attached" or "discouraged" worker. Often there are very good reasons for this. You could be sick, dealing with a family emergency, going back to school, or not have transportation.

Right now, about one-third of marginally attached workers actively want jobs but have not bothered to look because they believe there are no jobs in their area, at least not for them. If you add that extra 758,000 to the unemployment data, you get what is called U-4 unemployment, which today is 10.2%. If you count all marginally attached workers the unemployment number is 11% (U-5 unemployment).

And if you add those who are employed part-time for economic reasons (i.e., they can't get full-time jobs) the unemployment number rises to 16.8%. (That is called U-6 unemployment.)

Now, stay with me for the next two tables taken directly from the BLS website. The first is the total number of people in the US civilian work force. Notice how each year the number of potential workers rises. In fact, the number of workers has risen by about 15 million over the last ten years. This is from population growth and from immigration. Also notice that the normal rise did not happen last year. That is because the number of discouraged workers has risen rapidly and, as noted above, they are not counted. We will revisit this point later. But for now, there are 154,577,000 people in the available work force.



Next we look at the tables for the actual level of employment. Here we note that we are down almost 8 million jobs sincd the onset of this recession, and that there are almost 15 million people unemployed.



Going back to the part-time workers, there are roughly 9 million people who are working part-time because of business conditions, or those are the only jobs they could find. The average work week is at an all-time low of 33 hours. The chart below is from my friend David Rosenberg.

 
 



David wrote in a special report today:

"What does all this mean? It means that when the economy does begin to recover, when we finally get to the other side of the mountain, companies are going to raise their labour input first by lifting the workweek from its record low. Just to get back to the pre-recession level of 33.8 hours would be equivalent to hiring three million workers. And, the record number of people working part-time against their will are going to be pushed back into full-time, which will be great news for them, but not so great news for the 125,000 - 150,000 new entrants into the labour market every month. They won't have it so easy because employers are going to tap their existing under-utilized resources first since that is common sense. Also keep in mind that there are at least four million jobs in retail, financial, construction and manufacturing jobs lost this cycle that are likely not coming back. In fact, the number of unemployed who were let go for permanent reasons as opposed to temporary layoff rose by more than five million this cycle. This compares to the 1.2 million increase in the 2001 tech-led recession and in the 1990-91 housing-led recession (when Ross Perot talked about the sucking sound of jobs into Mexico)."

And What We Don't See

Those are the facts. Now it's time to look at what we don't see, and what you don't read or hear from the mainstream media.

...We are adding about 1.5 million workers to the workplace every year. That means over the next five years we are going to need 7.5 million jobs just to maintain that growth, or about 125,000 a month. That is on the low side of what economists normally estimate, which is around 150,000 per month. If we used the 150,000 estimate, it would mean we need 9 million jobs.

There are at least 1 million (and probably more like 2 million) discouraged workers who would take jobs if the economy got better. You can derive that number by going back to early 2007 and seeing the level of discouraged workers. That means, by the end of 2014 we are going to have 163 million people in the work force (see table above).

Today we have 139.6 million jobs, and that number is likely to slip at least another half million (last month the economy lost 216,000 jobs, with a very suspicious birth-death ratio accounting for a lot of job creation). So let's call it 139 million current jobs.

Let's assume that we would like to get back to a 5% unemployment rate. That would not be stellar, but it would certainly be better than where we are today. Five percent unemployment in late 2014 will mean 8.1 million unemployed. To get to 5% unemployment we will have to create 14 million jobs in the five years from 2010-2014. (163 million in labor pool minus 8 million unemployed is 155 million jobs. We now have 139 million jobs, so the difference is roughly 15 million.) Plus the equivalent of 3 million jobs that Rosenberg estimates, just to get back to an average work week. And maybe the extra 1.5 million a year I mentioned above.

But let's ignore those latter jobs and round it off to 15 million. Let's hope that by the beginning of next year we stop losing jobs. That means that to get back to 5% unemployment within five years we need to see, on average, the creation of 250,000 jobs per month. As an AVERAGE!!!!!

Look at the table below. It is the number of jobs added or lost for the last ten years. Do you see a year that averaged 250,000? No.




If you take the best year, which was 2006, you get an average monthly growth of 232,000. If you average the ten years from 1999, you get average monthly job growth of 50,000. If you take the average job growth from 1989 until now, you get an average of 91,000 a month. If you take the best ten years I could find, which would be 1991-2000, the average is still only 150,000. That is a long way from 250,000.

Even with robust growth of 200,000 jobs a month thereafter for the next two years, unemployment will still be close to or over 9%. That would only be an additional 1.8 million jobs (making the most optimistic assumptions) over the new jobs needed for population growth.

A Double-Dip Recession?

And that is before this administration makes the economically suicidal move to raise the top tax rate by 10%. The popular image is that those who pay the highest tax rate are Wall Street execs, bankers, and corporate moguls. The reality is that 75% of them are small business owners, and they are responsible for the large majority of new jobs that are going to be needed, not to mention a large part of consumer spending. If you tax them more you are going to get fewer jobs (as they will have less to invest) and less consumer spending.

A tax increase of the size being contemplated, with unemployment at today's level, will guarantee a double-dip recession, which of course means that unemployment will rise, not fall.

Without getting too political, think about elections in 2010 with unemployment levels still rising. And fast-forward to 2012, with deficits (optimistically) projected to be almost $1 trillion and rising. With a tax increase giving us another recession?

Today's Wall Street Journal tells us that 5 million people have been unemployed for over 6 months. And the longer you are unemployed, the harder it is to get a job. That means you have to settle for a job with less income than you had before.  The only group to see a rise in employment? Those over the age of 55, as they have to take a job, any job, so they can save for retirement.

The Statistical Recovery

The economy is in the process of bottoming. The year-over-year comparisons are getting easier. We will find that new level of spending and economic activity and grow from there. But it is going to be awhile before we get back to full employment. While the numbers may say recovery, it is not going to feel like one.

We have enormous excess capacity - capacity utilization is about 68%. Banks are cutting back on their loans, and consumers and businesses are borrowing less. Housing is likely to be in a funk for at least two years. We are deleveraging, which is causing the velocity of money to slow.

All of this is very deflationary. Will the Fed print enough money to reflate the economy? You better hope so. Will we have to deal with it later? Of course. We have no good choices. We are in for a long five years, at the least. Yes, there will be opportunities, and new industries will be created. But it won't happen overnight.

Welcome to the New Normal.

==================

FOURTH QUARTER FORECAST: INTRODUCTION from Stratfor

Editor's Note: Our fourth-quarter forecast, a supplement to our annual and third-quarter forecasts, is broken into three parts: introduction, primary forecast and regional trends.   In this piece, we outline what we expect to transpire over the next three months. Our primary forecast focusing on critical global trends publishes Monday, Oct. 5. Our forecast on regional trends publishes Tuesday, Oct. 6.

Setting the Stage

Events are taking the fourth quarter of 2009 into new territory. The rising confrontation with Iran has taken center stage as a conflict with global participants and global consequences. As the final quarter of the year dawns, representatives from the world's major countries are meeting in Geneva with their Iranian counterparts. The official goal is to see if sufficient international safeguards can be placed on the Iranian nuclear program. Failure could well lead first to sanctions against Iran, and should those fail, possibly a U.S.-Iranian military confrontation.

At its core, the brewing crisis is this: Israel is too small a territory to tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran, and too militarily weak to guarantee that it can deal with the problem on its own. However, an Israeli strike would certainly generate Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Persian Gulf, which in turn would force the United States to act against Iran directly. So the question in STRATFOR's collective mind is whether or not any concessions Iran grants on its nuclear programs will be sufficient to satisfy Israel's security concerns. The Obama administration is obviously a player, and the onus is on the Americans to act, but the decisions that truly matter will be made in Israel, not the United States.

As goes this crisis, so goes the world.

Russia is attempting to lock down the United States in the Middle East so that Moscow can extend and deepen its efforts to re-create its Soviet-era sphere of influence, particularly in the former Soviet Union. Thus Russia is funneling various forms of assistance, primarily technical cooperation on weapons, energy and nuclear industries, to Iran. It is also making apparent its intent to do an end run around any sanctions the West might impose on Iran. An Iran strong enough and independent enough to keep the United States preoccupied is just what Russia wants.

After the worst recession in a generation, the global economy is on the mend. The ending recession was primarily financial in nature, meaning that it evolved primarily into a crisis of confidence. Confidence requires time to rebuild, and as such the recovery is both shallow and extremely uneven, with some regions as likely to descend back into recession as return to real growth. It is a recovery very vulnerable to disruption. A military confrontation in the Persian Gulf would send shock waves through the system, at a minimum interrupting the flow of Iran's 2.4 million barrels of daily oil exports. That alone would be more than enough to break the recovery's back.

Copyright 2009 Stratfor.


John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/

THE ENTERPRISE--PROACTIVE OR REACTIVE? TRUTH VS. TRUST

THE ENTERPRISE--PROACTIVE OR REACTIVE?  TRUTH VS. TRUST

PROACTIVE OR DESPERATE--DELL'S DESPERATE DEAL FOR PEROT
Dell is playing catchup and paying for it, big time.  In attempts fo emulate the IBM--systems/services model, Dell is late and small compare to IBM and HP.  Plus the price it paid for Perot systems didn't reflect Perot's inability to really make it against the "big boys."  When Dell's on-line customization model fell prey to "all the laptops come with almost everything on them" situation, it found itself in the same position as option crazy US car companies did when the Japanese imports started hitting the shores with all the most popular options already installed and included in the price.  HP, who had trailed, jumped into the lead by virtue of its retail placement--where option rich models attracted prospective individual buyers.  Corporate customers may crave customization, but that only goes so far.  Right now, Dell is in danger of becoming an "also-ran" and you know how those turn out.

WRITE YOUR CONGRESSIONAL REPRESENTATIVE AND COMPLAIN
John Murtha the PA Congressman who never saw an earmark he didn't like now has an expensive airport built just for him and his homies.  $150 million in Federal subsidies and earmarks resulted in an airport that few use, and nobody "needs,"  except Murtha.  About 30 passengers use the airport grabbing one of the 3 flights per day to where?  You guessed it, DC!  Earlier this year another $800,000 in federal stimulus money went toward paving a second runway!!  Murtha also has $8.5 million for a new radar system in his pocket too.  This guy is shameless and its our tax money he's wasting in the name of "supporting his constituents."  Write your Congressional representative and senators.  Complain!    This is just wrong in so many ways.

PROACTIVE OR REACTIVE DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU SIT--WITH POLITICIANS ANYWAY
Carter's trade policies were huge failures.  Now Obama is re-running that horror film to serve his supporters--Unions--to the detriment of Americans--employers and employees BOTH!  George Will says it so well, I have just pasted his column below.  Gary D. Halbert takes apart Obama's Healthcare speech and tracks down the misrepresentations and lies (Rep. Wilson's outburst was accurage--he does lie!).  The MSM (Main Stream Media) also lies and does so as much by omission as by inclusion.  Did anyone see the coverage of the huge event shown below?

WHETHER PROACTIVE OR REACTIVE--TRUTHFULNESS IS CRITICAL TO TRUSTWORTHINESS
As one correspondent reminded me, "they all lie."  I did not rebut him then, but I will here.  That doesn't make it right or acceptable, and the higher the position, the bigger and more important the lie, then the greater the damage done by it.  The President of the US has many occasions where he cannot tell the "whole truth" or reveal information what is not appropriate for wide distribution.  BUT--HE SHOULD NOT PROMOTE HIS POLICIES WITH OUTRIGHT LIES AND MISREPRESENTATIONS.  Bush was vilified for his reputed lies about Iraq's WMDs, based on the CIA's intel.  Perhaps that criticism was valid, but IF he was basing it on "misinformation" from his sources, shame on him and shame on them.  When the President deliberately ignores the facts, that is far worse.  When he plays to a small audience (as Bush did with his misguided Steel Tariffs during term one), he is actually doing harm to the vast majority of Americans.  THAT IS SIMPLY UNACCEPTABLE.

WE CAN DIFFER ABOUT POLICIES, SOLUTIONS AND APPROACHES, BUT THE TRUTH IS THE TRUTH--OR NOT!

Best,  John

========================================================================================

Tire fiasco shows who is pulling president's strings
Wednesday,  September 23, 2009 3:08 AM
By George F. Will

While in Pittsburgh, a sense of seemliness should prevent President Barack Obama from again exhorting the G-20, as he did April 2 in London, to be strong in resisting domestic pressures for protectionism. This month, invertebrate as he invariably is when organized labor barks, he imposed 35 percent tariffs on imports of tires that China makes for the low-price end of the market. This antic nonsense matters not only because of trade disruptions it may cause but also because it is evidence of his willowy weakness under pressure from his political patrons.
In 2000, as a price of China's admission to the World Trade Organization, Congress enacted a provision for "relief from market disruption" to American industries from surges of Chinese imports. Congress said disruption exists whenever imports of a product "like or directly competitive with" a U.S. product increase "rapidly" and threaten "significant" injury to a U.S. industry. Evidence of disruption includes the volume of imports of a product, the effect of imports on the prices of competing U.S. goods and the effect on the U.S. industry.

Notice that China need not be guilty of any wrongdoing: It can be punished even if it is not "dumping" -- not selling goods below the cost of manufacturing and distributing them. (That we consider it wrongdoing for a nation to sell us things we want at very low prices is a superstition to be marveled at another day.) And China need not be punished: Presidential action is entirely discretionary. So Obama was using the sort of slippery language that increasingly defines his loquacity when he said he was simply "enforcing" a trade agreement.

None of the 10 manufacturers who comprise the domestic tire industry sought this protectionism. Seven of the 10 also make tires in other countries. Most U.S. manufacturers have stopped making low-end tires, preferring the higher profit from more expensive models. (Four U.S. companies make low-end tires in China.)

The president smote China because a single union, the United Steelworkers, asked him to. It represents rubber workers, but only those responsible for 47 percent of U.S. tiremaking. The president's action will not create more than a negligible number of jobs, if any. It will not restore a significant number, if any, of the almost 5,200 jobs that were lost in the tire industry between 2004 and 2008. Rather, the president will create jobs in other nations that make low-end tires. They make them partly because some U.S. firms have outsourced the manufacturing of such tires to low-wage countries so the U.S. firms can make a small profit, while making high-end and higher-profit tires here.

The 215 percent increase in tire imports from China is largely the fault, so to speak, of lower-income Americans, many of whom will respond to the presidential increase in the cost of low-end tires by driving longer on their worn tires. How many injuries and deaths will this cause? How many jobs will it cost in tire-replacement businesses, or among longshoremen who handle imports? We will find out. The costs of the president's sacrifice of the national interest to the economic illiteracy of a single labor union may also include injuries China might inflict by imposing retaliatory protectionism or reducing its purchases of U.S. government debt.

Obama was silent when Congress, pleasing the Teamsters, violated the North American Free Trade Agreement by stopping Mexican trucks from delivering goods north of the border. And although he is almost never silent about anything, he did not protest "Buy American" provisions in the stimulus legislation. And he has not denounced the idea many Democratic climate tinkerers have of imposing "border adjustment mechanisms" -- tariffs -- on imports from countries that choose not to burden their manufacturers, as the Obama administration proposes burdening American manufacturers, with restrictions on carbon emissions. And he allows unratified trade agreements with Colombia, South Korea and Panama to languish. Nevertheless, he says he favors free trade.

He must -- or so he thinks -- say so much about so many things, perhaps he cannot keep track of the multiplying contradictions in his utterances. But they -- and the tire tariffs -- are related to the sagging support for his health-care program.

George F. Will writes for the Washington Post Writers Group.

georgewill@washpost.com

========================================================================================
TO COMPLAIN OR TO STEP FORWARD
Is this the first such picture you have seen like this?  I was stunned to see the size of this crowd in our Nation's Capitol, protesting the policies that are being implemented by our government--Congress, President Obama and his horde of "unconstitutional" czars.  If you think posting these here is inflammatory, then you don't understand the history of America, and how a Democracy "of the people, by the people and for the people"...operates.  If I were a candidate up for reelection to public office, I would sure take heed of this reaction.

This is the first great conservative anti-statist manifestation in American history. The conservative movement, which developed in the post-WWII, Cold War environment has now fully matured into the most significant political movement of the 21st century. I believe that this day could be referred to in the not too distant future as the day that changed America . This was the day the great silent conservative majority finally found its voice. 

Many of the attendees were quite meek and timid and were unsure of exactly what to expect, this being the first time in their lives they’d been involved in a protest movement. Their fears evaporated early in the day and I saw people reveling in the camaraderie , the joy and sheer civility that was exhibited at the entire event. Chants of “Freedom, freedom, freedom”, “No more czars! No more czars!” carried through the air without the slightest hint of rancor or incivility which is the norm at the leftist rallies I have photographed over the years.

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MAYBE OBAMA IS NOT LYING, BUT IT SURE SEEMS LIKE IT
If he will "misrepresent and lie" in this one, why would his handling of other issues be any different?
Excerpt from Gary D. Halbert:

 Misrepresentations, Omissions & Falsehoods in President Obama’s Healthcare Speech
The number one problem with the Democrats’ massive healthcare reform proposal is a simple matter of supply/demand.  There is no way to provide healthcare insurance and coverage to 46 million people who do not currently have coverage, with the same number of doctors, nurses and hospitals/clinics, without rationing healthcare.  Even if the number is half that, some 23 million people (or even just 15-20 million as some argue), the problem is still the same.

The law of supply and demand also dictates that if we substantially increase the number of Americans covered (demand) with the same number of doctors, nurses and hospitals/clinics (supply), the cost of healthcare will increase, perhaps significantly, unless there is rationing.  We must look no further than Canada or Great Britain to see how this will happen.

The question at the end of the day is, why can’t the president and the Democrats just admit that there will berationing and just be straight with the American people?  In all of his healthcare speeches, President Obama totally avoids this simple supply/demand fact.  The president wants us to believe that we can insure and provide healthcare to at least 15-20 million more Americans and actually spend less.  No wonder that millions of Americans are up in arms over this!

Some observers have called this a “convenient fantasy” on the part of President Obama and the Democrats.  How are we are going to save money by spending a lot more money – $1 to $2 trillion over the next ten years?  How are we are going to solve our exploding fiscal problems with a massive new federal bureaucracy that will control at least one-sixth of the national economy going forward?

President Obama claims that the new government-run healthcare system “won’t add one dime to the deficit.”Unfortunately, presidential administrations and Congress are notoriously bad at forecasting the costs of their pet projects, especially entitlement programs that are intended to be permanent.

President Bush’s Medicare Prescription Drug program is a perfect example.  When it was passed in 2003, the White House and the Congressional Budget Office forecast that it would cost apprx. $400 billion over 10 years.  Guess what – the CBO now projects it to cost $1.2 trillion over 10 years.  Do we really think Congress and Obama’s cost forecasts are any better?  I doubt it!

Obama says the government will guarantee that you can keep your current insurance, even though his healthcare plan would encourage your employer to stop offering it; and when they do, you will have no optionexcept the government-run plan.  The same is true should you get fired or decide to change jobs – the government-run option is the only option in H.R. 3200.

In addition, he says we aren’t going to insure any illegal aliens; however, in H.R. 3200 passed by the House Committee on Education and Labor, there were no citizenship verification provisions to assure that illegals can’t apply and get benefits.  Yet President Obama promises that the new healthcare plan will only cover American citizens.  (Maybe he plans to make them all citizens – amnesty - before the new system goes in place – think about it.)

At one point during his healthcare speech to a joint session of Congress, President Obama drew cackles for remarking that “there remain some significant details to be ironed out.”  No kidding!  Here again, Obama delivered a message that was strikingly similar to the one that has failed to resonate with the American people thus far.  The reason is that while Obama can paper over political and policy realities by speaking in broad strokes, it’s always the specifics that have caused him problems.  Healthcare is too big not to nail down the specifics!

As he has done before, Obama pledged to veto any bill that added to the federal deficit. But despite that commitment, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the House Democrats’ healthcare reform plan would cost over $1 trillion over the next decade and add a minimum of $239 billion to the deficit.

Obama again touted the cost-saving potential of “preventive care.”  Here, too, the independent Congressional Budget Office has determined that preventive measures would actually increase health care costs, and that a so-called Medicare Commission that Mr. Obama has suggested would have a negligible impact on curbing government healthcare spending.  Why are the president and the Congress ignoring these warnings from the independent CBO?

Back in May, President Obama went before the American Medical Association and declared, “No matter how we reform health care, we will keep this promise to the American people: If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor, period. If you like your health care plan, you’ll be able to keep your health care plan, period. No one will take it away, no matter what.”  He has made this exact claim in numerous other healthcare speeches.

In his latest speech before Congress on September 9, Obama offered a more nuanced pledge that “nothing in this plan will require you or your employer to change the coverage or the doctor you have.”  As noted above, this is simply not true if you lose your current coverage for any reason under H.R. 3200.

Regardless of whether or not the proposed healthcare legislation specifically requires that Americans give up their private coverage, there are still many changes to the system that could cause many people to lose it anyway.  For instance, one provision Obama backed in his latest speech - to tax expensive health plans - is explicitly aimed at encouraging employers to drop benefit-rich policies in hopes that it would help rein-in medical spending (ie – rationing).

At another point in his recent healthcare speech, Obama said that, “The middle-class will realize greater security, not higher taxes.”  How does this jibe with the preceding sentence in the paragraph just above? Then, at another point in his latest speech Obama gave an unwavering endorsement of a requirement that individuals either purchase health insurance, or pay a tax. 

Under the Senate version of healthcare reform/mandate proposed by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT), individuals would face a tax of at least $750 annually if they do not purchase health coverage.  How is this “greater security, not higher taxes”?

And while the Baucus healthcare proposal would provide subsidies to lower-income Americans, those subsidies would stop at 300% of the federal poverty level. What that means is that a family of four with a household income above $66,150 would face a tax of $3,800 if they do not obtain health insurance, while individuals with income above $32,490 would face a tax of $950.  Yet Obama argues that this is not a “tax,” if it’s something that is good for you.  Yeah, right!

This is a problem that Obama himself noted when he was campaigning against Hillary Clinton back when he said he opposed such mandates.  In a February 2008 debate referring to healthcare reform, he said, “In some cases, there are people who are paying fines and still can’t afford it, so now they’re worse off than they were. They don’t have health insurance and they’re paying a fine.”  He was referring to conditions under a similar healthcare mandate in Massachusetts.

During his speech two weeks ago, Obama advocated the creation of a plan to be offered on a government-run insurance exchange that would be “administered by the government just like Medicaid or Medicare.”  He said that the reason we need such an option is that, “by avoiding some of the overhead that gets eaten up at private companies by profits, excessive administrative costs and executive salaries, it could provide a good deal for consumers.”

Yet later in the same speech, he argued that he could pay for most of his proposal with cuts to Medicare that would not have any impact on benefits to seniors.  Say what?  The reason, he explained, is that we could save money by reducing “the hundreds of billions of dollars in waste and fraud…” in Medicare - the very government-run program he touts as a model for the creation of a new government-run healthcare program.  Do they really think we are that stupid?  

While acknowledging that the new plan would be run by the government, Obama tried to argue that it wouldn’t be subsidized by taxpayers, but only funded by the premiums it collects.  Sorry, but I must point out that any new government plan would require taxpayer money to fund huge start-up costs - at the least, and should it run into financial trouble, it’s hard to believe that lawmakers would allow it to fail without pumping taxpayer money into it, just as they did in the cases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (and those were allegedly private companies).

President Obama speaks in such broad circles and contradictions.  You can keep your current plan and doctors, but not really; your taxes will not go up, but they probably will have to; we won’t cover illegals, but there’s no way not to; etc., etc.  No wonder the number of Americans who oppose government-run healthcare is now at a record high – 56%!

"Forecasts & Trends" is published by ProFutures of which Gary D. Halbert is the President.   (gdh@profutures.com)

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BONUS INFORMATION:

POSTED BELOW IS A PIECE OF MEDICAL NEWS THAT MIGHT SAVE A LIFE--YOU OR SOMEONE AROUND YOU:

 

Blood Clots/Stroke - They Now Have a Fourth Indicator, the Tongue

I will continue to forward this every time it comes around!

STROKE:Remember the 1st Three Letters....S.T.R.

My nurse friend sent this and encouraged me to post it and spread the word.
I agree.

If everyone can remember something this simple, we could save some folks.
Seriously..

Please read:

STROKE IDENTIFICATION:

During a BBQ, a friend stumbled and took a little fall - she assured everyone that she was fine (they offered to call paramedics) .she said she had just tripped over a brick because of her new shoes.

They got her cleaned up and got her a new plate of food. While she appeared a bit shaken up, Ingrid went about enjoying herself the rest of the evening

Ingrid's husband called later telling everyone that his wife had been taken to the hospital - (at 6:00 pm Ingrid passed away.) She had suffered a stroke at the BBQ. Had they known how to identify the signs of a stroke, perhaps Ingrid would be with us today. Some don't die. they end up in a helpless, hopeless condition instead.

It only takes a minute to read this....

A neurologist says that if he can get to a stroke victim within 3 hours he can totally reverse the effects of a stroke...totally. He said the trick was getting a stroke recognized, diagnosed, and then getting the patient medically cared for within 3 hours, which is tough.

RECOGNIZING A STROKE

Thank God for the sense to remember the '3' steps, STR . Read and Learn!

Sometimes symptoms of a stroke are difficult to identify. Unfortunately, the lack of awareness spells disaster. The stroke victim may suffer severe brain damage when people nearby fail to recognize the symptoms of a stroke.

Now doctors say a bystander can recognize a stroke by asking three simple questions:

S *Ask the individual to SMILE.

T *Ask the person to TALK and SPEAK A SIMPLE SENTENCE (Coherently)
(i.e. It is sunny out today)

R *Ask him or her to RAISE BOTH ARMS.

If he or she has trouble with ANY ONE of these tasks, call emergency number immediately and describe the symptoms to the dispatcher.

New Sign of a Stroke -------- Stick out Your Tongue

NOTE: Another 'sign' of a stroke is this: Ask the person to 'stick' out his tongue.. If the tongue is 'crooked', if it goes to one side or the other,that is also an indication of a stroke.

A cardiologist says if everyone who gets this e-mail sends it to 10 people; you can bet that at least one life will be saved.

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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--I WONDER WHY?

THE ENTERPRISE--I WONDER WHY?

WHY DO WE SO OFTEN IGNORE TIMELESS TRUTHS?
The material below were the notes I made for the opening of the 13th Annual Reunion Conference that was held this past week.
http://www.shape-shifters.com/reunion.shtml for those who desire more information.

IN TIMES OF "UNPRECEDENTED UNCERTAINTY" (the conference theme), I wonder why we don't heed some wise advice?

• STEPHEN COVEY:  "BEGIN WITH THE END IN MIND."
• MATTHEW KELLY:  "WHAT DO YOU WANT TO BE? TO DO?"
• WHEN?
• DECIDE!
• WHAT DO YOU WISH YOU HAD MORE OF?  TIME?  ENERGY? HELP?

• ENERGY—GET IN SHAPE—ACTUALLY AND METAPHORICALLY.

            EAT WELL, SLEEP WELL, EXERCISE AND DISCOVER MORE ENERGY.

• TIME—CHOOSE PRIORITIES WISELY—PLAN, TAKE ACTION, ASSESS & ADJUST.

            USING “TIMELESS TRUTHS” DISCOVERED IN “QUIET TIMES.”

• HELP—TAKE TIMES OF SILENCE TO THINK, AND ASK FOR HELP.

            FROM “PARTNERS”  & FRIENDS ... AND FROM GOD.

•  BAN UNPRODUCTIVE THOUGHTS

            DON’T ASK “WHY CAN’T WE?”
            ASK “HOW CAN WE?  HOW ELSE?  WHAT ELSE?

• BAN UNPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIORS

            DON’T SIT MINDLESSLY IN FRONT OF THE “BOOB TUBE”
            READ, LEARN, INTERACT, THINK, (EVEN PRAY!)

REMEMBER--“BOOKS CAN CHANGE YOUR LIFE. YOU ARE WHAT YOU READ. WHAT ARE YOU READING?"  — Matthew Kelly

From each of these Reunion Conferences, a few conclusions arise above the many worthy ideas discussed, and these few are both memorable and worth sharing here--I will only list four of them.  (The context within which these emerged is part of the richness of an interactive roundtable discussion conference.)

We should concentrate on the "PRACTICE of ASSET-BASED THINKING," (not liability or deficit based thinking)  in other words, think positively not negatively--build on strengths.

We should give great thought to our Purpose, and then, once decided "PRACTICE CONSTANCY OF PURPOSE," using it to guide our priorities, actions and decisions.

TWO OF THE MOST MEMORABLE LINES CAME FROM STORIES:
An old Indian story involved a young brave and an old chief, discussing the internal struggle between good and bad thoughts and behaviors.  The young brave asked the old chief if he had this internal struggle, and the old chief characterized it this way.  "It is like two dogs are inside me fighting; a good dog and a bad dog."  To this, the young brave asked, "which dog wins?"  The chief's answer was one of the most memorable "lines" that came out of the conference:  "It depends on which dog you feed."  The line therefore was, "FEED THE GOOD DOG!"

The second story had to so with a challenge of selling in a retail setting.  The challenge was a regular contest, asking sales people to choose a hard to sell, "ugly" item and feature it in the front of the store.  If they could "sell the ugly item, " then they could certainly excel at selling the other, more desirable items.  It was in finding the skill and the appeal to sell the "ugly item" that the learning occurred.  Thus the second line was, "SELL THE UGLY ITEM."
 ============================

ANOTHER INTERESTING POINT IS THAT WE ARE VICTIMS OF WHAT WE BELIEVE, EVEN WHEN IT IS WRONG

Many decisions are made after great thought and deliberation.  However, if the information upon which those decisions were based was wrong, then the decisions will likely be wrong too. This happens every day, in nearly every walk of life--and certainly in business (where most employees are afraid to give the boss the "bad news," thus they "filter" the information going up the organization).  The result is decision making using flawed information--and thus resulting in flawed decisions.

WHY DOES THE GOVERNMENT "RIG THE DATA"—e.g., THE DIFFERENCE IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES:

We somehow expect unemployment to decrease when new job openings just recently hit a new all-time low at 2.4 million, at 1/2 the peak during 2007 of 4.8 million?  We keep publicizing the more favorable U-3 unemployment rate (now at 9.7%) when the real pain of job loss and desperation to find any kind of job leads to a much larger number, known as the U-6 unemployment rate (now at 16.8%)  Wonder why few employers are going to start hiring after just laying off people and while the uncertainty about what new government regulations, taxes and rules are on the horizon?

The BLS calculates the official unemployment rate, U-3, as the number of unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force. The civilian labor force consists of employed workers plus the officially unemployed, those without jobs who are available to work and have looked for a job in the last 4 weeks. Applying the data found in Table 2 yields an official unemployment rate of 9.1%, or a seasonally adjusted rate 9.4% for April 2009.  Accounting for the large number of marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons raises the count of unemployed to 24.0 million workers for May 2009. Those numbers push up the U-6 unemployment rate to 15.9% or a seasonally adjusted rate of 16.4%.

WE HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE WHO WANT TO COME HERE FROM MEXICO--DON'T YOU WONDER WHY?

Subject: Moving to Mexico

Dear President Obama:

 I'm planning to move my family and extended family into Mexico for my health, and I would like to ask you to assist me.  We're planning to simply walk across the border from the U.S. into Mexico , and we'll need your help to make a few arrangements.  We plan to skip all the legal stuff like visas, passports, immigration quotas and laws.  I'm sure they handle those things the same way you do here.   So, would you mind telling your buddy, President Calderon, that  I'm on my way over?

Please let him know that I will be expecting the following:
  1. Free medical care for my entire family.
  2. English-speaking government bureaucrats for all services I might need,   whether I use them or not.
  3. Please print all Mexican government forms in English.
  4. I want my grandkids to be taught Spanish by English-speaking (bilingual) teachers.
  5. Tell their schools they need to include classes on American culture and   history.
  6. I want my grandkids to see the American flag on one of the flag poles at  their school.
  7. Please plan to feed my grandkids at school for both breakfast and lunch. 
  8. I will need a local Mexican driver's license so I can get easy access to government services.
  9. I do plan to get a car and drive in Mexico , but, I don't plan to purchase car insurance, and I probably won't make any special effort to learn local traffic laws.
  10. In case one of the Mexican police officers does not get the memo from   their president to leave me alone, please be sure that every patrol car has at least one English-speaking officer.
  11. I plan to fly the U.S. flag from my house top, put U S. flag decals on my car, and have a gigantic celebration on July 4th. I do not want any complaints or negative comments from the locals.
  12. I would also like to have a nice job without paying any taxes, or have any labor or tax laws enforced on any business I may start.
  13.  Please have the president tell all the Mexican people to be extremely nice and never say critical things about me or my family, or about the strain we might place on their economy.
  14. I want to receive free food stamps.
  15. Naturally, I'll expect free rent subsidies.
  16. I'll need Income tax credits so although I don't pay Mexican Taxes, I'll receive money from the government.
  17. Please arrange it so that the Mexican Gov't pays $ 4,500 to help me buy a new car to replace my "junker."
  18. Oh yes, I almost forgot, please enroll me free into the Mexican Social Security program so that I'll get a monthly income in retirement.

I know this is an easy request because you already do all these things for all his people who walk over to the U.S. from Mexico.
I am sure that President Calderon won't mind returning the favor if you ask him nicely.  Thank you so much for your kind help. You're the man!!!

An American Citizen

WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE EXPECT SOMEONE TO PROVIDE FOR THEM?
A modern (partisan) version of an old parable explains the dangers of dependency being created by benevolent, but misguided government policies.

THE ANT AND THE GRASSHOPPER
A modern adaptation of an old parable

   OLD VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long,  building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold.  

   MORAL OF THE STORY: Be responsible for yourself or suffer the consequences!

 MODERN VERSION:

    The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others are cold and starving. It is simply UNFAIR!

    The NY Times, CBS, NBC , PBS, CNN, and ABC show up to provide coverage of the shivering grasshopper next to pictures of the ant in his warm, comfortable home, with a table filled with food.  America is stunned by the sharp contrast.  How can this inequity exist, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so? Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper and everybody cries when they sing, 'It's Not Easy Being Green.' 

    ACORN stages a demonstration in front of the ant's house where the news stations film the group singing, 'We shall overcome.'  Rev. Jeremiah Wright  then has the group kneel down to pray to God for the grasshopper's  sake. Nancy Pelosi & Harry Reid exclaim in an interview with Larry King that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share.

    President Obama holds a news conference and makes an inspiring speech on the importance of "fairness."

    Finally, at the direction of the President and Congress, the government passes the Economic Fairness & Grasshopper Protection Act retroactive to the beginning of the summer.   The ant is fined for failing to support a proportionate number of GREEN bugs (e.g., grasshoppers)s and, having insufficient supplies left to pay his retroactive taxes and fine, his home is confiscated by the Government GREEN Czar.

    The story ends as we see the grasshopper finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government house he is in, which just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles around him because he hasn't maintained it.
    The ant has disappeared in the snow, perhaps gone forever.  The grasshopper is later found dead in a suspected drug related incident and the house, now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of spiders who terrorize the once peaceful neighborhood.

MORAL OF THE STORY:  Be careful who you vote for in 2010—YOU MIGHT BE THE "ANT!"
PS:  Party designations can be misleading too.  Know what the person stands for too!

I WONDER HOW WE CAN TURN THINGS POSITIVE?
During the Bush administration, we wondered why the Democrats were always obstructing what was being proposed.  Now we know the feeling from the other perspective.  Opposition is necessary, important and appropriate--but only until it gets in the way of coming up with better solutions.  It is time for us to spend more energy finding solutions that a large majority of Americans can embrace--not those that are passed by a narrow margin of people who all share one political ideology and party affiliation.  That is not American democracy. 

I WONDER HOW WE GET BACK TO THE FINE ART OF COMPROMISE
Thus my challenge for everyone is:  What is the best, the optimum, the compromise and the solution that a majority of Americans will find reasonable and right.  It is not government totalitarian control. Nor is it complete freedom of individuals or the private sector to do whatever they wants and/or can get away with.  Both extremes lead to bad places.  It is time to synthesize new solutions.  To settle for "half a loaf" if the "whole loaf" simply cannot be accepted by the large majority of Americans.  Whether it is health care, economic policy, immigration, energy, taxes, social welfare, education or a huge array of other issues--the majority of Americans are (in my opinion, and in the results of many polls) "centrists" or "moderates." 

Both the extreme left and the extreme right are too far over to satisfy the majority of Americans. Now is the time to come up with "moderate" and "reasonable" compromise solutions that most of us can embrace willingly. 

I WONDER WHY OUR LEADERS IN WASHINGTON ARE NOT DOING THAT?

Best, John

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 "Government is supposed to work for the people; not vice versa."
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--9/11 SPECIAL ANNIVERSARY DOUBLE ISSUE--NEVER FORGET

THE ENTERPRISE--9/11 SPECIAL ANNIVERSARY DOUBLE ISSUE--NEVER FORGET

On the eight anniversary of that infamous day...

FOR EIGHT YEARS, WE HAVE AVOIDED ANOTHER LARGE SCALE TERRORIST ATTACK

WITH EACH PASSING YEAR, UNDER NEW GOVERNMENT LEADERS WHO TAKE THE THREAT LESS SERIOUSLY... OUR RISK INCREASES

Now the only attacks we must endure are by misguided members of government and media, questioning the morals, methods, and reasons  behind decisions made by military and government leaders in their zeal to protect us during those moments of crises and the weeks and years that followed them. 

It is so easy for these people, safe in their hallowed halls to use 20-20 hindsight about what should or should not have been done and how.  I wonder how they would feel if they were wounded or dying in a pile of rubble that was our Capitol building?   But then, they are not. They are "safe."   For now.

So they wage war on Americans and "bow" to foreign enemies and rogue states.  If we, in America, had to wait for our Congress to reach an agreement on anything, we'd all be dead--of old age.  If we had to wait while the Commander in Chief's teleprompters were set up for another conciliatory speech outlining how bad we Americans behaved, we'd have grown old--or died at the hands of attacks by new extremist terrorists. 

If the misguided mainstream media and the new Attorney General does not stop "witch-hunting" to place blame on government officials who oversaw our safety for 7+ years, then we as Americans will suffer a fate much like those victims of 9/11.  Or perhaps, those very politicians and media will suffer the fate they have been spared for now--but at a different time and place. 

In fact, if Flight 93 had not been downed by brave Americans, who sacrificed their lives to do so, more of Washington would have been in flames.  The outraged politicians and bureaucrats who are now so outspoken might have been among the victims.

NEVER FORGET THESE ATTACKS
Download 9-11 attack-short

Those who organized and carried out these attacks represent tens of thousands of others who hate Americans and the USA.  They revel when our newly elected leaders appease them and apologize to them, and secretly laugh behind those leaders' backs, while they plot the next atrocity.  Only strength and vigilance will prevent a recurrence of 9/11--albeit it will come in a different form, at a different place and some new time. 

Our allies in this struggle will be fewer and fewer as large parts of old Europe is rapidly becoming a Muslim colony—London, Paris, Amsterdam, etc. are all now filled with Muslim enclaves, some of which are spawning home-grown terrorists as I write this. 

Meanwhile, our lives must go on, or the al Qaeda terrorists will have achieved a victory much greater than the atrocity of 9/11.  We must grow and learn and live and carry on the American way.  Meanwhile, our Congressional leaders dither about how to protect our borders, and whether to give illegal entrants the benefits of America's freedom and lifestyle.  Perhaps we can only change them every two years, but there is more we can do.  We can build America stronger than ever.

CELEBRATE THOSE WHO LOST THEIR LIVES IN 9/11 BY MAKING MORE OF YOURSELF--AND ENCOURAGING OTHERS TO DO SO
Americans can and must learn.  They must learn that with rights, come responsibilities.    Americans must learn new skills.  Not everyone needs to go through college.  Some should learn trades--the old fashioned way, via apprenticeships and on the job learning.  Others should follow shorter, but very productive education--like Practical Nursing--which can later evolve to a Registered Nurse position or more.  There are many good "technician level" jobs that pay well, and require training, but not college degrees.  America still has some of the best "trade schools" around too.  And remember, a good "blue collar worker" is far more valuable than a weak, lazy or unscrupulous "white collar worker."

IT'S TIME TO GET BACK TO BASICS ABOUT DEFENDING AMERICA--FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH, NOT APPEASEMENT
In the zeal to "attack the terrorists," and removed Saddam Hussein, and drive down the Taliban, we have forgotten the larger mission.  TO MAKE AMERICA SAFE AND TO LEAD THE WORLD not in "nation building, " but by our words, deeds, and actions.  We tried to "liberate Iraq," and many Iraqis neither understood that or wanted it.  Finally, after 5 years of misdirection, a new direction helped unify some of Iraq's warring factions, and now it is time for Americans to withdraw.  IF the Iraqis can govern Iraq, it will be fine.  If now, it will revert--but we CANNOT BE THE WORLD'S BABYSITTER.

NOBODY HAS EVER "WON" IN AFGHANISTAN-WHY DO WE THINK WE CAN?
Read that line again.  NOBODY!  And we won't either.  Our plan needs to be an abbreviated version of the past 2 years in Iraq.  Help the Afghanis to organize, train and learn how to manage their own country.  If the central government cannot govern and maintain order, the Taliban will take over.  We cannot stop them.  No one can.  It it not our job to do so.

WHAT WE NEED TO MAKE VERY CLEAR, IS THAT ANY REGIME IN AFGHANISTAN THAT WELCOMES AL QAEDA TRAINING CAMPS AND ATTEMPTS TO GET PAKISTANI NUCLEAR WEAPONS -- WILL BE BOMBED INTO OBLIVION (UNFORTUNATELY, ALONG WITH ANY INNOCENTS WHO HARBOR THE TERRORISTS.)
Only if they understand that America will protect its interests,  and will ATTACK THEM, without regard for who is in control or where they are, will thy realize the foolishness of their ways.  The fear of civilian casualties in such an approach is no greater and perhaps less than under an oppressive Taliban control.  (Any one who wishes to debate this should so some homework about how the Taliban operates and is regarded by most Afghan citizens--they are terrified of them, and rightly so.)

IN CASE YOU HAVE FORGOTTEN THE SACRIFICES AMERICAN SOLDIERS ARE MAKING FOR US...CHECK OUT THE PHOTOS BELOW:
Many readers wonder why I become angry with the behavior of our misguided government leaders.  When I see the phony posing of our the preening politicians, from the so called "leaders of Congress," to the Commander in Chief and his "army of 'Czars", to his staff (who seem more interested in finding fault than showing the heartfelt appreciation for their safety). 

Our brave soldiers keep the faith in spite of the nonsense they see, hear about and read from a Congress who should be overwhelmed with gratitude, but instead seems consumed with self-importance and political posturing.  We owe them our heartfelt thanks, as we do the brave NYFD fire-fighters who sacrificed so much during 9/11 to save American lives.

 REFLECT ON THESE WORDS AND PICTURES WHILE YOU LISTEN TO OUR STAR SPANGLED BANNER—TURN YOUR SOUND VOLUME UP & LISTEN TO THIS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ETrr-XHBjE
This one is sung the way it should be.  Not by some punked-out rocker, or some celebrity anti-American performer, but by true American "FUTURE" Heroes.

NOW READ THE NEXT PIECES AND STUDY THE PHOTOS
-and MAY GOD BLESS AMERICA---AND SHOW US THE WAY TO LEAD US OUT OF THESE "DARK DAYS" AND "LOST LEADERSHIP!"

BEST,  JOHN
------------------------------

To those who wonder what our brave protectors must endure so we can enjoy the freedom here at home.
Yes... It is like that in Iraq!  Count your blessings, pray for them, talk to your Creator.  And the next time when...

The other car cuts you off and you must hit the brakes,
Or you have to park a little further from Walmart than you want to be,
Or you're served slightly warm food at the restaurant,
Or you're sitting and cursing the traffic in front ofyou,
Or the shower runs out of hot water,

Think of them...Protecting your freedom!
 





 

 

PLEASE PASS THIS MESSAGE ON
A Message from Iraq

The proud warriors of Baker Company wanted to do something to pay tribute to our fallen comrades:  So since we are part of the only Marine Infantry Battalion left in Iraq, the one way that we could think of doing that is by taking a picture of Baker Company saying the way we feel.



It would be awesome if you could find a way to share this with our fellow countrymen. I was wondering if there was any way to get this into your papers to let the world know that?

'WE HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN'  And are proud to serve our country.
'Semper Fi, 1st Sgt Dave Jobe.'


The attached photo was forwarded from one of the last U.S. Marine companies in Iraq.  They would like to have it passed to as many people as possible, to let the folks back home know that they remember why they're there and that they remember those who've been lost.

--------------------------------

An American Manifesto
Twelve Points All Americans Must Understand

©John L. Mariotti 2009

Republican.  Democrat.  Conservative.  Liberal.  The labels today are meaningless distractions.  No matter which group is in charge, it seems that government grows.  One example is the dept. Of energy, formed during the oil crisis of the 1970s.  It has become a huge bureaucracy that employs tens of thousands, and costs billions, yet doe has moved no closer to advancing energy policy in four decades.  Arguably, that huge bureaucracy has moved us backward.  As government grows, it consumes a larger share of our income in taxes, fees, and regulatory costs.

1—Government’s growth comes at the expense of our freedom and prosperity.  If we want more of one, it seems we must sacrifice and have less of the other.   This just doesn’t seem right.  Too many Americans have still failed to realize that with rights come responsibilities; to have the rights, they must accept the responsibilities.

 Part I—The Situation

For far too long, America has suffered—and continues to suffer—from a lack of sound policies and the strong, clear-thinking leadership that would make this a freer and more prosperous country.

2—Policy makers currently spend too long in office & too much time catering to their special interests & donors (that give them money & power) and this leads to more government influence, creates less economic freedom, and in the process causes a greater dependency on government.

This has led to many of our country’s woes.  Term limits must be put in place for elected officials and staff bureaucrats alike, and extended to prevent them from moving immediately to the position of lobbyists.  The entrenched bureaucracy, like the DOE example cited earlier, is moving us backward, not forward, while pursing its own agenda and not those of the American people.  There are many things only government can and must do.  There are many things it should never do, (and it does them poorly.)  Choosing which is which remains the challenge.

To stay free, we must stay strong—but we are not.

3—Our freedom is based on strength and resolve; on determination and vision; and on the over-riding conviction that America cannot cower, cannot pacify and cannot yield to rogue nations, to militant fanatics or to misguided pacifists, who think we can talk our way out of all conflicts.  We cannot. 

And yet, our military might is diffused, demoralized, and in serious danger of being lessened, while we remain the “world’s police force,” whether it’s in our best interests or not.  As north Korea, Iran and others strive for nuclear capability, Russia upgrades its aged nuclear arsenal, while our primary deterrent lies rusting and dormant in silos, built based on 1960’s technology, and barely maintained by the small surviving handful of aging scientists who still know how it all works.  And yet, this is the target of misguided budget reductions.  To stay strong we must invest in badly needed maintenance of our deterrent weapon systems.

Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.

We believe that the lessons from history clearly show that monopolistic government is inherently bureaucratic, costly, and inefficient.  Economic freedom guarantees each person the opportunity to attain the American dream.

4—Unchecked dependency on government inevitably leads to the creation of a dependent majority who pay little or nothing for the government goods and services given to them, while the productive minority see more of their income appropriated by government to pay for this dependency. 

This behavior leads to a socialistic “caretaker” role for the Federal government that drives out high achievers and rewards those who fall to the lowest common denominator of mediocrity or worse.

 Which path will we take?

5—We stand at a crossroad today where we can choose one of two paths: more government control and dependency—or—more economic freedom and prosperity—and we are heading down the wrong path. 

Most Americans have always preferred freedom and prosperity to more government control and intervention—and they still do.  Because the growth of government occurs regardless of who held power, Americans were not offered the right choices.  Regardless of how they voted, Americans got more government.  As a result, apathy rose, and a larger dependent class developed.  This must change—but it will not change in the right direction with our current leadership in place, pursuing their misguided policies..

America was built on freedom

6—America needs and deserves leaders and a government that firmly understand and believe in the core principles of a free society, a free enterprise system, and free market capitalism.   The USA was formed as a federal democracy, with as much power left in the hands of the people and the states as possible.  That structure is quickly being torn down.

We need:

Ø     Freedom to choose based on transparency, access to reliable information, and the rule of law (and the constitution)

Ø     Limited government that lives within its means, exercises fiscal vigilance, and that sees individuals and the private sector as sources of industry and innovation, rather than sources of taxation and objects of derision

Ø     Individual responsibility as the best means to insure a free society, where only the truly downtrodden become (temporarily) dependent—first on the community—and then only on government as a last resort

Only the private sector can create prosperity and wealth

7—We must be dedicated to enhancing prosperity for Americans through free enterprise,  economic freedom and competition, job creation and entrepreneurship, and appropriate government reform and accountability.   We must pay particular attention to the impact of government regulatory, statutory, and policy decisions on creating (or destroying) a competitive economic climate in our states and our country.  We need a stronger voice for those who create jobs, encourage competition, and leverage the creative class.

 8—All wealth is created within the private sector.  The government does not create wealth—it simply cannot—since all of its investment capital comes in the form of taxes levied upon those who have created the wealth and earned the income on which they are being taxed.   The government can only redistribute wealth from those who have earned it to those who will spend it—and often waste much of it in the process.

Part II—The Solution

What can we do?  Change policies and leadership—to create prosperity anew.

9—We must give America’s risk-takers an opportunity to share their ideas with policy-makers on how government actions can foster – or impede – opportunities for a stronger, freer, and more prosperous country—instead of suspecting them of being villains.   We firmly believe that our future depends on increasing economic freedom and competitiveness in all parts of our economy.

Fend off misguided attempts that inhibit prosperity

We must aggressively fend off those special interests (such as unions) that are only concerned with increasing their dues revenue, protecting underperforming employees, while stifling flexibility, innovation and competition.  We must end the unhealthy practice of overcompensating public sector workers, thereby making it more attractive to work for government than in the private sector.

10—No society ever remained great (or healthy) where those in government prospered while those paying the cost of government carried a heavier and heavier tax and regulatory burden.  Government should never be shielded from or shield others from the power of competition.  It is illogical and immoral for the government to pay artificial premiums for goods and services when a better taxpayer value alternative exists.

The only path to prosperity is via the private sector

An economy geared to private sector job creation and entrepreneurship is the only way to ensure that those looking to start or grow a business, and those seeking quality work, can blossom.  From the creation of a pro-business judicial environment to the utilization of our geographic and natural resource blessings, we must ensure that government policy spurs business and attracts the best and brightest—not drives them away or de-motivates them.

Private investments create wealth; government investments create more bureaucracy and dependency.

Our investments in technology, infrastructure, and education must aim to create tomorrow’s fortune 1000 companies and workers.

11—At the same time, our regulatory policies must not unduly burden our companies and entrepreneurs with red tape, regulations, bureaucratic paperwork, and counterproductive mandates, which are already penalizing America’s global competitive position to our detriment. 

The cost and burden of government cannot continue to make America weaker in this intensely competitive global marketplace. We must rigorously review all aspects of government to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse, rein in out-of-control spending, and lessen the heavy regulatory hand of government.  And yet, we are moving in exactly the opposite direction.  Those in positions of power in government must be held to a higher standard and also be held accountable when things go wrong—just as they demand from the private sector. 

Change—yes, but the right kind of change

The American people who voted for change had part of their desires right; change was needed—but what is wrong is the kind of changes that are being made.

12—America needs a course correction, of that, we are certain.  A large part of that course correction is to clean house in congress, and get rid of those who have been in power too long, abused that power and forgotten that they work for the people and not vice versa.  That change transcends party lines, too.  

Now is the time to start planning how to do that in the 2010 mid-term elections.  Term limits is one answer.  Retirement age limits is another.  Electing right-thinking people and not just voting “party lines” is another. Choosing legislators with the right understanding, the right character and the right goals is the solution.  Incumbents must feel the consequences of bad behavior.

The resilience of America has come from the collective wisdom and spirit of Americans.  It has saved us in the past. Let’s make it work this time before we have gone too far down the wrong path.  “WE, the people,” have done it before and WE can do it again.
-----------------------------
THOMAS SOWELL IS A HIGHLY REGARDED THINKER, AUTHOR AND OBSERVER
See what he has to say about our President's recent escapades:

A Masterpiece Of Charlatanry For The Naive
By THOMAS SOWELL | Posted Thursday, September 10, 2009 4:20 PM PT
"Hubris-laden charlatans" was the way a recent e-mail from a reader characterized the Obama administration. That phrase seems especially appropriate for the charlatan-in-chief, Barack Obama, whose speech to a joint session of Congress was both a masterpiece of rhetoric and a shameless fraud.  To tell us, with a straight face, that he can insure millions more people without adding to the already skyrocketing deficit, is world-class chutzpah and an insult to anyone's intelligence.  To do so after an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office has already shown this to be impossible reveals the depths of moral bankruptcy behind the glittering words.

Did we really need CBO experts to tell us there is no free lunch? Some people probably did, and the true believers in the Obama cult may still believe the president, instead of believing either common sense or budget experts.  Even those who can believe that Obama can conjure up the money through eliminating "waste, fraud and abuse" should ask themselves where he is going to conjure up the additional doctors, nurses and hospitals needed to take care of millions more patients.  If he can't pull off that miracle, then government-run medical care in the United States can be expected to produce what government-run medical care in Canada, Britain and other countries has produced — delays of weeks or months to get many treatments, not to mention arbitrary rationing decisions by bureaucrats.

Obama can deny it in words, but what matter are deeds — and no one's words have been more repeatedly the direct opposite of his deeds — whether talking about how his election campaign would be financed, how he would not rush legislation through Congress, or how his administration was not going to go after CIA agents for their past efforts to extract information from captured terrorists.  President Obama has also declared emphatically that he will not interfere in the internal affairs of other nations — while telling the Israelis where they can and cannot build settlements and telling the Hondurans whom they should and should not choose to be their president.

One of the secrets of being a glib talker is not getting hung up on whether what you are saying is true, and instead giving your full attention to what is required by the audience and the circumstances of the moment, without letting facts get in your way and cramp your style. Obama has mastered that art.  Con men understand that their job is not to use facts to convince skeptics but to use words to help the gullible believe what they want to believe.

No message has been more welcomed by the gullible, in countries around the world, than the promise of something for nothing. That is the core of Barack Obama's medical care plan.  President Obama tells us that he will impose various mandates on insurance companies but will not interfere with our free choice between being insured by these companies or by the government.  But if he can drive up the cost of private insurance with mandates and subsidize government insurance with the taxpayers' money, how long do you think it will be before we have the "single payer" system that he has advocated in the past?  Mandates by politicians are what have driven up the cost of insurance already. Politicians love to play Santa Claus and leave it to others to raise prices to cover the inevitable costs.

Politicians have driven privately owned municipal transit systems out of business in many cities by simply imposing costs and restricting the fare increases needed to cover those costs. The federal government can drive out private insurance the same way that local politicians have driven out private municipal transit and replaced it with government-run transit systems.

Barack Obama's insistence that various dangerous policies are not in the legislation he proposes sounds good but means nothing. Unbridled power is a blank check, no matter what its rationale may be. No law gave the president of the United States the power to fire the head of General Motors, but TARP money did.

When there are "advisory" panels on what treatments to approve and the White House's existing medical adviser has complained of Americans' "over-utilization" of medical care, what does it take to connect the dots?     Copyright 2008 Creators Syndicate, Inc

-----------------------------------------------------------
 "Government is supposed to work for the people; not vice versa."
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
------------------------------------------------------------

THE ENTERPRISE--Labor Day BITS, PIECES AND PERCEPTIONS

THE ENTERPRISE--Labor Day BITS, PIECES AND PERCEPTIONS

BAD NEWS FOR LABOR ON LABOR DAY: 9.7% UNEMPLOYMENT UNDERSTATES THE PROBLEM--16.8% UNEMPLOYED IS THE REAL NUMBER
Speaking of progress or the lack thereof: the August jobless rate hits 9.7%; payrolls fell 216,000.  (And June, July numbers were adjusted slightly worse too.) Stop and think for a minute.  That is 216,000 real people who lost their jobs, just in the last month.    Since this recession started about 6 million or more American people have lost their jobs. And,  payrolls are still dropping, so it's hard to declare that a recovery is underway.  The best I can say is that "the rate of decline in employment is declining."    Employers will not rehire people very quickly, so the bottom will be a "big flat spot!"  Watch for it. Then watch for the upturn--in 2010, probably 2Q or 3Q, not sooner.  Stimulus package?  What stimulus. The only thing that was stimulated was all the pet projects the politicians larded into that pork filled boondoggle of a bill.  They should be ashamed. 

Speaking of "messes," there is Afghanistan, where no outside "invader' has ever "won."  NONE, NOBODY, EVER.   

AFGHANISTAN--THE BIGGEST NO WIN MESS OF ALL
Afghanistan is a mess, and a shaping up more and more as a no-win situation.  It could be far worse than Iraq, and we have no business trying to fix it, or control it. The original invasion was to drive out al Qaeda training camps.  That got done.  But the idea of "routing the Taliban" is another issue entirely.  I'm not sure what George Bush would have done now (maybe "stay the course," but If Barack Obama continues, this will become "his war," and I fear he will regret it mightily ... and so will most Americans.  We need to "clean up" and watch the Pakistan border with Afghanistan and as fast as possible, turn over the rest of the country to Afghanis/Taliban--with one caveat.  If they let al Qaeda come back here and set up camp, we will bomb them, and you into oblivion.  And we CAN do that.  We did it once, because we had to (during the time right after 9/11) but as I said, nobody has ever "won" in Afghanistan.  It's like the "Tar Baby" from Uncle Remus stories.  The harder you struggle, the more entangled you get.  Some experts are saying that things are better than they appear, that more progress is being made, etc. but this time (unlike Iraq) I doubt it!

WHO MONITORS THE CZARS?
And where do they get their power and influence.  Certainly not from the Constitution or from any laws I know about.  They are the Executive Branch's private "power-brokers," and they are powerful--too powerful.   We need someone to remind Congress that the Czars are often more powerful than elected Congressional members.  If that fear is planted, a remedy won't be far behind.

Want to lower health care costs?
MANDATE PORTABLE, DIGITAL MEDICAL RECORDS
The technology is not a problem.  It is resistance from independent medical services providers and the privacy freaks.  This is something the government does well at, and no one else can do.

MANDATE TRANSPARENCY IN PRICING
Taxi cabs have to give you cost estimate sheets in many cities to avoid rip-offs.  How about the same for Doctors, Clinics, and Labs.  When I had an MRI a few years back, the person in the clinic truly could not tell me how much the fee was going to be. Her answer was "like, $1200-$1500 or so."  Wow.  Would I have refused it?  Maybe, maybe not.  But the law should require this information BEFORE services are provided.  Would you like to buy gas from pumps with no prices?  How about groceries with no prices--just a total when you are done shopping.   AND, the list price and real price varies a lot depending on what kind of insurance coverage you have and how much clout in negotiating the insurance provider has. Crazy?  Not in medical circles.  It's normal.

CLEAN UP CORRUPTION AND WASTE IN MEDICARE/MEDICAID
It is chewing up billions of dollars that could pay for more liberal fees for Docs, and service to a larger base of the neediest people.  Do that first.  Cut funding for the "non-medically necessary" stuff:  erectile dysfunction drugs are a biggie, so is quasi-cosmetic surgery, posing as something "necessary," and I'm sure there are plenty of others.  That brings us to the issue of drugs, generics, and so forth.

BAN ADVERTISING PRESCRIPTION DRUGS--ON TV & CABLE, AND MAYBE EVERYWHERE
That will slow down the flow of people going to their Docs demanding to be put on these new drugs, because they are sure they have the symptoms the TV told them about.  Read OVERDOSED AMERICA  by Dr. John Abramson.  It WILL open your eyes.  The money saved by advertising spending cuts could be split into two parts: one to fund research, and the other to subsidize lower drug prices as part of health care cost controls.  It will also reduce pressure for drug companies to "manipulate the test results" or the publication of them, as has happened in the past.

PASS TORT REFORM AND GET RID OF ENORMOUS LIABILITY SUITS--WHERE LAWYERS GET RICH--AND EVERYONE ELSE LOSES
In America, there is nearly no penalty for unjust suits.  In England, loser pays the costs--all of them.  Here, a company with deep pockets can break an innocent party just under the burden of legal fees.  Doctors pay enormous premiums for malpractice insurance, and worry that they don't have enough.

CHANGE THE RULES FOR THE HEALTH CARE INSURANCE INDUSTRY
This industry is part of the problem, not part of the solution.  They sure don't want a public option.  The government is worse to deal with but insurance firms are not so hot themselves.  While adding transparency to pricing, remove state by state barriers and let competition work its magic across the USA.  Give the people who are insured more rights--not to multi-million dollar suits--but to being able to influence the needs, options, outcomes and balance the playing field for consumers.  Few "suppliers" have the power of health insurance companies over their customers.

A HEALTH CARE BILL WILL GET PASSED
What I fear is not the most talked about elements of the pending bill.  It is the bits and pieces tucked here and there that will let the government intrude into our lives and affairs more and more.  That is what Obama really wants--governmental control.  The rest is a smoke screen.

Want to get real about energy use and cost?
DEVISE A NEW METRIC FOR ELECTRICS AND HYBRIDS--MPG IS NOT APPLICABLE
Since gas is a secondary or non-existent fuel for these, there needs to be a new energy consumption metric developed--and fast.  The old one is obsolete.  There is also a safety issue.  Electrics are so quiet, pedestrians do not hear them coming.  Maybe someone needs to figure out how to (figuratively) "clip a playing card in the spokes with a clothes-pin," like we used to do on our bikes?  Tick, tick, tick...

MANDATE THAT UTILITY COMPANIES SEND MONTHLY BILLS
That prominently display what it cost you per day for their electricity, gas, water, etc. followed by at least 4-5 "tips" on how to lower your usage and thus your cost.  No new technology required.  Just get consumers involved.

Want some real problems to worry about?
THE PRICE OF BEER (AND SUGAR) IS GOING UP
Yikes, this could be disastrous.  Perhaps we need a new "BEER CZAR!"  Also, the price of sugar is going up, aided by tariffs that need to be reconsidered, at least.   We all need a "sugar buzz" from time to time, and the artificial stuff just doesn't get the job done.  Please don't tell me there will be a CHOCOLATE shortage.  There is only so much a person can stand. (:-)

MEDIA BIAS CONTINUES TO BE A HUGE PROBLEM--DRIVING POLARIZATION AND PARTISANSHIP
When ABC became the All Barack Channel, and MSNBC became the Democratic National Committee's "house organ," trouble was confirmed.  The right wing radio guys are reacting by being just as polarizing in the other direction.  This does harm all around.  Those who know me know I was not a Ted Kennedy fan, but the guy was part of the old breed who knew how to get in a smoke filled room and hammer out a compromise deal that both sides didn't like, but could live with.  John McCain is too.  There are too few of them around.

CASH FOR CLUNKERS HELPED FOREIGN MAKERS MORE
Of the ten most popular choices of new cars to buy:  3 Toyotas, 3 Hondas, 2 Fords, 1 Nissan, and 1 Hyundai.  No GM or Chryslers.  Ford also won the "clunker derby" with old Explorers being the most common "clunker."  But the new Fords are really spiffy cars.

Two things that are "broken:"
BIG BOX RETAIL STORES ARE A DYING BREED
Circuit City is gone.  Linens 'n Things is gone.  Borders is in trouble.  There's only one "big box" toy store left--Toys R Us.  Sporting Goods stores are next in line.  Watch.  So far, the big "Craft & Hobby stores are hanging on--Joann, Michael's and Hobby Lobby.  But history says more than 3 never make it and 3 often dwindle to 2 or 1.  Petsmart and Petco are hanging on, with a second tier of smaller places like Petland, etc.  Time will tell, but this is a tough way to do retailing.  Too many SKUs, too little margin for the inventory turns or vice versa.  High fixed costs, which demand high volume.  New prey for Wal-Mart & Target & Home Depot and Lowe's.

THE POST OFFICE IS A MESS--AND ANOTHER HIDDEN TAX ON US
I went looking for a mail box the other day.  There is a huge retail and commercial complex that has sprung up along Sawmill Rd. cutting through Dublin and Powell, OH.  It has all developed in the past 10-12 years.  The lone mailbox I could find was on "Old Sawmill" (now just a sort of remote "frontage road" that was the main thoroughfare 20 years ago.  It's located in front of  a John Deere tractor dealer, who was also "out in the country" 20 years ago.  I guess nobody in the post office noticed that the area changed radically over the past 10+ years.  Ditto for its services.  Will any one in government do anything about this albatross of yesteryear?   NOPE.  It's easier to just print money to fund the $7B annual deficit.  What's another $7B when we are wasting TRILLIONS?

The question of the week:
WHEN IS SOMEBODY GOING TO INDICT, CONVICT AND THROW CHARLIE RANGEL IN JAIL
The laws he has broken just keep piling up.  Tax evasion in several ways; owning more than one rent controlled housing unit, favoritism toward his family's "supplier" relationship and on and on.  The latest was an "innocent mistake" of understating his net worth and omitting a whole range of investment in his disclosure filings.  (Lying is the other name for that.)  Does being a senior, influential member of Congress exempt him from the laws?  IT SHOULD NOT.  And he should not be allowed to say "whoops" and walk away unscathed either.

The prediction of the week:
IF CONGRESS BULLDOZES THEIR BILLS THROUGH ON A PARTISAN BASIS
They will seal their own fate.  It happened in 1994 and can happen again.  Here's what one correspondent said about the effect on the economy.
'I think everyone is of the mind set that next year will be a better year by a couple of percent. Not sure if that is based on reason or human optimism. My personal opinion is based more on Adam Smith, if the Government fails on coming to an agreement on health care, cap and trade, and card check, we will exceed this year by a good margin. If the Government succeeds on any one of those programs, we will be flat. If they are successful at implementing at least two of those programs, we will not exceed this year.

THE "OUTS" ALWAYS HAVE AN ADVANTAGE OVER THE "INS"
They can always say they'd do "it" better, and voters believe them.  Sometimes they do. Usually they don't. They just do "it" differently. 

MINORITIES CAN DRIVE THE COMING ELECTIONS--WILL THEY?
They elected Barack Obama.  They continue to grow as a percentage of the USA voter base.  Obama can give them a lot of "free stuff" and economic motivation to keep voting for him and Democrats in Congress.  That is simply a fact.

Mind blowing thought of the week:
2012 Presidential Election:  Hillary Clinton (she's baaack, with Bill in tow) vs. Jeb Bush (finally, the best of the Bushes)

CLOSE WITH TWO VERY GOOD THOUGHTS (attached below)
The first one comes from a correspondent of mine who is a  very thoughtful guy, and often opens my eyes with his insights.  I thought I'd share this email with readers.  The second is from Matthew Kelly, a widely known speaker and writer how also opens my eyes, and often my heart with his down to earth, inspirational messages.  I hope you enjoy them both.

Best, John
=====================

THE ISSUE IS NOT THE ISSUES
It has been said that this is a nation on the verge of a nervous breakdown. The level of anxiety that people are feeling has not been seen in many years, and nothing will create anxiety more than fear of the unknown. What we don’t know is how the nation will be rocked by the cascading changes that are taking place. But we’re reasonably certain it won’t be pretty. Its pure drama that is exceedingly intense.

Most people sense that we are also at that pivot point of our history, with a new young president unlike any we’ve seen before, and with the promise of breathtaking change whose boundaries are a largely unknown. To the average person, something is happening here, but he or she doesn't know what it is. We feel disorientation as we sense a U.S. Decline in a world gone mad. The fear of the unknown has probably never been higher since the height of the Cold War.

It’s through this lens that the raucous town hall eruptions find traction. Even if they are inflated by activist organizations and cable-TV overexposure, they still cannot be dismissed entirely as irrational behavior.

Pick an issue such as the Iraq/Afghanistan Wars, Health Care, Climate Change, or the Economy, etc., and with the proper focus there will be a firestorm of anger on both sides. Why? People are just plain scared, and they don't know for sure why? Health Care of course strikes a nerve as no other issue can.

These anxieties coalesce in various permutations right, left and center. In most cases they don’t surface in the explosions we’re seeing at these town hall meetings but in the kind of quiet desperation that afflicts the nation. And it has been building for several years.

We witnessed the evolution of the perfect political storm in the 2006/08 elections. The circumstances were right for a political route, perhaps not seen since 1933. The American people handed control to the Democrats and they have the power to do pretty much they want, including Healthcare (with some caveats). The Republicans are powerless to totally stop them.

Right now, you and I are simply bystanders who will have to wait for a change in context, leadership, and voter attitude. The day will come, as it always has, but in the meantime the drama will need to play out.

They say that the mark of a good leader is the ability to take people were they didn't know they need to go. Let us hope that the direction and outcome is generally favorable. Change has an ending, middle, and beginning, so the larger question is, will the beginning be better than the ending?

I still think that it is way too early to effectively assess the Obama administration. I do think that America needs two effective political parties and that people tend to see things as black or white over time as evidenced by the turnover in 2008. So it is in this context that I reaffirm my desire to see both parties succeed, because we need them!

Best regards,

John W. Corbett
International Learning, Inc.
jcorbett@internationallearning.com

=====================
NOW HERE IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT AS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND ROLLS PAST US!

EVERYTHING IS A CHOICE
by Matthew Kelly
Everything is a choice. This is life's greatest truth and its hardest lesson. It is a great truth because it reminds us of our power. Not power over others, but the often untapped power to be ourselves and to live the life we have imagined.

It is a hard lesson, because it causes us to realize that we have chosen the life we are living right now. It is perhaps frightening for us to think that we have chosen to live our life exactly as it is today. Frightening because we may not like what we find when we look at our lives today. But it is also liberating, because we can now begin to choose what we will find when we look at our life in the tomorrows that lie un-lived before us. What will you see when you look at your life ten years from now? What will you choose? Life is choices.

You have chosen to live this day. You have chosen to live in a certain city. You have chosen to believe certain ideas. You have chosen the people you call friends. You choose the food you eat, the clothes you wear, and the thoughts you think. You choose to be calm or restless, you choose to feel appreciative or ungrateful. Love is a choice. Anger is a choice. Fear is a choice. Courage is a choice. You choose. Sometimes we choose the-best-version-of-ourselves, and sometimes we choose a-second-rate-version-of-ourselves. Everything is a choice, and our choices echo throughout our lives... and into history... and on and on into eternity.

Most people never fully accept this truth. They spend their lives arguing for their weaknesses, complaining about their lot in life, or blaming other people for their weaknesses and their lot in life.

You may argue that you are forced to live in a certain city or drive a certain car, but it is not true. And if it is, it is true only temporarily and because of a choice you have made in the past. We choose, and in doing so, we design our lives.

Some may say that we do not choose our circumstances. You'd be surprised. We have much more power over the circumstances of our lives than most men and women would ever admit. And even if circumstances are thrust upon us, we choose how we respond to those circumstances.

Others may argue that they did not choose the country they were born in or the parents they were born to. How do we know we didn't choose these things? We are all endowed with free will. Did we not have this free will before we were born? Perhaps one day we will realize that we have chosen much more than we have even imagined. I hope that day is today.

For the day we accept that we have chosen to choose our choices is the day we cast off the shackles of victimhood and are set free to pursue the lives we were born to live. Learn to master the moment of decision and you will live a life uncommon.

~excerpt from The Rhythm of Life: Living Every Day with Passion & Purpose
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 "Government is supposed to work for the people; not vice versa."
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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