THE ENTERPRISE
On the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, it's ironic that the news is full of a different kind of disaster. As a nation, we are incredibly vulnerable to terrorism, perhaps now more than ever. The terrorists who hate the US are probably gleefully proclaiming that Allah took out his wrath on the American devils. But this disaster also did something else for the US--it exposed the weakness in its ability to respond--hopefully that will be something our government leaders will learn from. The tuition will be the $250 Billion price tag for Katrina relief.
It occurred to me while reading/watching still more Katrina coverage (and some rants) that we all watch a lot of TV that uses terms like "premeditated murder," "criminal negligence," and "dereliction of duty." Some of the ineptness by governmental leaders has led to them being charged with these kind of "crimes." Time will tell the story fully as to where the blame belongs, but there are larger lessons for us in this terrible disaster. Defense Sec'y Rumsfeld mentioned a "Lessons Learned" process, and this one is surely critical for both natural and terrorist-induced disasters.
From my perspective there are a few lessons in five basics in management of any critical situation: A Plan, Execution, Leadership, Communications, Setting Priorities. Fail in these, and it is a mess!
1) There must be PLAN. A good plan is thought out in advance, not under the stress of actual crises. There was a plan. Nobody used it. Perhaps it wasn't as good as it might have been, but it was, like far too many plans (in businesses) "buried somewhere inaccessible." For example: The poor and disabled/disadvantaged never had a chance to use the city and school buses to evacuate...nobody remembered to move them to high ground...or mobilize them and provide drivers 24-48 hours BEFORE the hurricane hit.
2) EXECUTION is critical. If no one looked for or used the plan, execution was random, or worse. It was only in those instances where municipalities has a plan and followed it--or when the military forced a plan into effect--that anything was executed by more than random acts of heroism. Examples: The bus example and emergency communications systems failure are just two "execution" failures. The convention center debacle was another.
NOTE: This hurricane hit was not a "surprise"--either while Katrina was bearing down on the Gulf Coast--or in simulations done 2-3 years before that predicted a storm of this magnitude would do just what it did--devastate the city and surrounding area.
3) LEADERSHIP is essential--and it was weak or non-existent. When we elect our government officials, we often look past their leadership skills and experience to concentrate on some more politically marketable characteristic. The result is leaders who lack certain necessary leadership traits...and more often lack a lot of "managerial" competence. Such deficiencies are exposed in the most painful way during crises.
NOTE: Gov. Blanco is a school teacher. I doubt that her background prepared her to manage such complex situations or even to have the mental toughness to make timely critical decisions. New Orleans Mayor Nagin came from the private sector a year ago, but I don't know his specific background, nor can I comment on his qualifications--but he appeared to have failed under the pressure.
FACT: Few people outside of the US Government/Military or a very few (huge) corporations have leadership/management preparation for a crisis with the proportions of this one.
4) COMMUNICATIONS were a total disaster. There was no emergency plan, and what might have existed, totally failed, either due to storm damage or technical failures. Absent communications, nothing could be managed very well or at all. (One of the most disruptive elements in my novel, THE SILENCE, was the fact that when all communications are "silenced," it is nearly impossible to organize any kind of emergency management or control efforts.)
NOTE: Mayor Nagin's entire control center was totally out of communications for almost THREE DAYS--Sun. -Wed.--in the most critical part of the crisis. The power generator ran out of diesel fuel. When fuel was obtained, the Mayor's "Control Center" had to rely on a single Vonage VOIP line, followed shortly thereafter by the addition of seven other Internet telephony lines. Nothing else worked.
5) SETTING PRIORITIES--IN EMERGENCY RESPONSE--"TRIAGE"--is not "media friendly." It means saving the most potentially saveable people and ignoring those who are either hopeless or a "lower priority" in the use of scarce resources. This means that our extensive video media could find hundreds of sad, outrageous, or hard to defend situations. THIS IS NO EXCUSE FOR FEMA'S INADEQUATE RESPONSE. If the US Military had been in control, instead of a FEMA, itself hampered by a TOTALLY INADEQUATE DIRECTOR and fewer resources than it should have had, results would have been different.
FEMA is where President Bush gets his "blame" in my book. Political appointments are notoriously shaky. Good political supporters, competent politicians and adept career bureaucrats hold positions of great influence far too often--positions they are ill-qualified to hold in more than title. Most have professional staffers who supply the competence the appointee lacks.
One had only to watch President Bush's facial expressions and body language while he was being briefed by FEMA Director Brown (widely carried on cable TV) to see that he knew what one part of the problem was. As as far as Bush's insistence that the "refugees" not be called that--what "politically correct" nonsense. (Seeking refuge in a storm or a disaster, "fleeing from danger," is exactly what the definition of "refugee" is all about.)
For a scary story about "refugees in New Orleans" check my blog: http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
---FROM LAST WEEK--AN UPDATE ON THE CONSEQUENCES, A WEEK+ SMARTER.
Our country is, in many ways, more resilient than in my first prognosis. Still, MORE than half of the predicted consequences are unfolding as predicted. Watch these carefully in the coming weeks and months...they will affect you personally and professionally.
==AS EXPECTED ---TAXES must certainly be INCREASED--somehow.
==AS EXPECTED ---River is open, partly, but barely. The LOSS of the PORT facilities will hurt US Grain exports and limit imports of industrial goods and oil... (--> Ports are very slowly reopening, with 25% operations in 3 months being the latest projection.)
==AS EXPECTED ---The US ECONOMIC RECOVERY will be slowed ... or worse. The Budget DEFICIT will GROW.
==AS EXPECTED ---BUILDING MATERIALS AND STEEL prices will go UP, UP, UP ... INFLATION will REAPPEAR as all commodities needed in rebuilding will jump in price, driven by demand.
==AS EXPECTED---HOUSING GROWTH will SLOW dramatically as new construction costs rise and resources are diverted to the rebuilding efforts.
++BETTER ---GAS PRICES are holding at $3/gallon...which is high, but could have been worse.
++BETTER ---FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS gave more than LIP SERVICE--at least some of them.
++BETTER ---The STOCK MARKET hung in there, based on moderating oil prices and Federal spending to keep things going.
---NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN---Pressure will build to DIVERT US RESOURCES FROM IRAQ to domestic needs, but troop withdrawal will not likely be accelerated
***NEW PROBLEMS ---CEMENT IN SHORT SUPPLY, PLASTICS PRICES CLIMB (Natural gas prices and problems), INSURANCE PREMIUMS WILL GO WAY UP. and HEATING COSTS WILL SOAR THIS WINTER. RETAIL SALES for the 3Q and some of 4Q WILL BE IMPACTED TO THE TUNE OF -2 to -4% JUST BASED ON STORES IN THE AREA AFFECTED.
****WORST PSYCHOLOGICAL PROBLEM ---PARTISAN POLITICIANS PLAYING THE BLAME GAME--What happened to "One Nation (UNITED), Under God?"
--------THE BLAME GAME: For those who want to read more about the "blame game", the Wall Street Journal article (below) pulls no punches about who did or didn't do what. But, there's plenty of blame to go around.
-------GEOLOGY, GEOGRAPHY AND COMMON SENSE: Is there any one who doesn't know that if you take a natural "bathtub" between the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico, and then build a city in it, sooner or later it'll get flooded. DUH? (You don't mess with Mother Nature!)
------CORRECTION: To "Able Danger" report: Two reliable sources (former CIA station chief and retired military officer) informed me that the chief "whistle-blower" on Able Danger was an untrustworthy "grand-stander"; a military officer whose security clearance was yanked by the DIA and whose credibility among insiders is terrible...and while there was "something there"... it was not worthy of being raised to this level of "scandal." Sorry--I was sucked in by mainstream media. (Conservative media, this time!)
------A FRIGHTENING FACTOID: (form your own opinion on what this says about Corporate Leadership):
The percentage of big-company top executives who think that having strong ethical values is the most important leadership trait needed by CEO--13%--down from 20% last year! 37% cited the ability to inspire others as most important up from 22%. (Source: Christian & timbers survey of 180 execs. 7/11-18/2005)
Since so much has now been written about Katrina and its implications, next week I'll go back to a different set of topics. Relieved?
Best,
John
--------------------------------------------
Economic Week in Review: September 5-9, 2005
--------------------------------------------
The week's economic news was generally positive, but excluded the
impact of Hurricane Katrina, the full effects of which are still
unknown. According to a report from the Federal Reserve Board, economic
activity increased in almost all of its districts, with widespread
expansion across industries. Consumer credit grew modestly, despite
strong auto sales and healthy spending in other categories.
Nonmanufacturing business activity rose at a higher-than-expected rate,
while growth in nonfarm productivity in the second quarter was revised
downward. For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.9% to 1,241 and the
yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 8 basis points to 4.12%.
To read Vanguard(R) Economic Week in Review in its entirety, go to:
http://www.vanguard.com/visit/econweek090905
September 6, 2005
COMMENTARY
Blame Amid the Tragedy
By BOB WILLIAMS
September 6, 2005; Page A28
As the devastation of Hurricane Katrina continues to shock and sadden the nation, the question on many lips is, Who is to blame for the inadequate response?
As a former state legislator who represented the legislative district most impacted by the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, I can fully understand and empathize with the people and public officials over the loss of life and property.
Many in the media are turning their eyes toward the federal government, rather than considering the culpability of city and state officials. I am fully aware of the challenges of having a quick and responsive emergency response to a major disaster. And there is definitely a time for accountability; but what isn't fair is to dump on the federal officials and avoid those most responsible -- local and state officials who failed to do their job as the first responders. The plain fact is, lives were needlessly lost in New Orleans due to the failure of Louisiana's governor, Kathleen Blanco, and the city's mayor, Ray Nagin.
The primary responsibility for dealing with emergencies does not belong to the federal government. It belongs to local and state officials who are charged by law with the management of the crucial first response to disasters. First response should be carried out by local and state emergency personnel under the supervision of the state governor and his/her emergency operations center.
The actions and inactions of Gov. Blanco and Mayor Nagin are a national disgrace due to their failure to implement the previously established evacuation plans of the state and city. Gov. Blanco and Mayor Nagin cannot claim that they were surprised by the extent of the damage and the need to evacuate so many people. Detailed written plans were already in place to evacuate more than a million people. The plans projected that 300,000 people would need transportation in the event of a hurricane like Katrina. If the plans had been implemented, thousands of lives would likely have been saved.
In addition to the plans, local, state and federal officials held a simulated hurricane drill 13 months ago, in which widespread flooding supposedly trapped 300,000 people inside New Orleans. The exercise simulated the evacuation of more than a million residents. The problems identified in the simulation apparently were not solved.
A year ago, as Hurricane Ivan approached, New Orleans ordered an evacuation but did not use city or school buses to help people evacuate. As a result many of the poorest citizens were unable to evacuate. Fortunately, the hurricane changed course and did not hit New Orleans, but both Gov. Blanco and Mayor Nagin acknowledged the need for a better evacuation plan. Again, they did not take corrective actions. In 1998, during a threat by Hurricane George, 14,000 people were sent to the Superdome and theft and vandalism were rampant due to inadequate security. Again, these problems were not corrected.
The New Orleans contingency plan is still, as of this writing, on the city's Web site, and states: "The safe evacuation of threatened populations is one of the principle [sic] reasons for developing a Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan." But the plan was apparently ignored.
Mayor Nagin was responsible for giving the order for mandatory evacuation and supervising the actual evacuation: His office of Emergency Preparedness (not the federal government) must coordinate with the state on elements of evacuation and assist in directing the transportation of evacuees to staging areas. Mayor Nagin had to be encouraged by the governor to contact the National Hurricane Center before he finally, belatedly, issued the order for mandatory evacuation. And sadly, it apparently took a personal call from the president to urge the governor to order the mandatory evacuation.
The city's evacuation plan states: "The city of New Orleans will utilize all available resources to quickly and safely evacuate threatened areas." But even though the city has enough school and transit buses to evacuate 12,000 citizens per fleet run, the mayor did not use them. To compound the problem, the buses were not moved to high ground and were flooded. The plan also states that "special arrangements will be made to evacuate persons unable to transport themselves or who require specific lifesaving assistance. Additional personnel will be recruited to assist in evacuation procedures as needed." This was not done.
The evacuation plan warned that "if an evacuation order is issued without the mechanisms needed to disseminate the information to the affected persons, then we face the possibility of having large numbers of people either stranded and left to the mercy of a storm, or left in an area impacted by toxic materials." That is precisely what happened because of the mayor's failure.
Instead of evacuating the people, the mayor ordered the refugees to the Superdome and Convention Center without adequate security and no provisions for food, water and sanitary conditions. As a result people died, and there was even rape committed, in these facilities. Mayor Nagin failed in his responsibility to provide public safety and to manage the orderly evacuation of the citizens of New Orleans. Now he wants to blame Gov. Blanco and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In an emergency the first requirement is for the city's emergency center to be linked to the state emergency operations center. This was not done.
The federal government does not have the authority to intervene in a state emergency without the request of a governor. President Bush declared an emergency prior to Katrina hitting New Orleans, so the only action needed for federal assistance was for Gov. Blanco to request the specific type of assistance she needed. She failed to send a timely request for specific aid.
In addition, unlike the governors of New York, Oklahoma and California in past disasters, Gov. Blanco failed to take charge of the situation and ensure that the state emergency operation facility was in constant contact with Mayor Nagin and FEMA. It is likely that thousands of people died because of the failure of Gov. Blanco to implement the state plan, which mentions the possible need to evacuate up to one million people. The plan clearly gives the governor the authority for declaring an emergency, sending in state resources to the disaster area and requesting necessary federal assistance.
State legislators and governors nationwide need to update their contingency plans and the operation procedures for state emergency centers. Hurricane Katrina had been forecast for days, but that will not always be the case with a disaster (think of terrorist attacks). It must be made clear that the governor and locally elected officials are in charge of the "first response."
I am not attempting to excuse some of the delays in FEMA's response. Congress and the president need to take corrective action there, also. However, if citizens expect FEMA to be a first responder to terrorist attacks or other local emergencies (earthquakes, forest fires, volcanoes), they will be disappointed. The federal government's role is to offer aid upon request.
The Louisiana Legislature should conduct an immediate investigation into the failures of state and local officials to implement the written emergency plans. The tragedy is not over, and real leadership in the state and local government are essential in the months to come. More importantly, the hurricane season is still upon us, and local and state officials must stay focused on the jobs for which they were elected -- and not on the deadly game of passing the emergency buck.
Mr. Williams is president of the Evergreen Freedom Foundation, a free market public policy research organization in Olympia, Wash.
URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB112596602138332256,00.html
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