THE ENTERPRISE
HAPPY FATHER'S DAY to all the Dads out there. I hope yours was a nice as mine. I suspect Phil Mickelson won't be so happy (another "runner-up" spot in a US Open after leading by 2 shots with 3 holes to go). I know it was a sad one for Tiger Woods, as he missed his first professional cut ever, but more than that, I am sure he missed his Dad, Earl more than anything. It takes a long time to get over the death of any parent, but when the father-son relationship was as strong and continuous as this one...it will take months or forever. That doesn't mean Tiger won't find his golf swing again, but golf is above all else a mental game and a game of concentration. No wonder the poor kid (he really is still young) didn't play well.
ON THE BOOK FRONT
There was cause for me to celebrate this past week, as I hit the "SAVE" button on my Mac iBook for the first draft manuscript of THE COMPLEXITY FACTOR. Now to read it and see if it makes any sense. It is always scary trying to edit your own writing, but worse when you start reading it and wondering "where the heck was I going with that thought?" Anyway, initial reaction from those who have heard the concept of the book has been very positive, so I am motivated that IF I can get it edited in the next month and make it clear enough to understand, it will help solve many nagging business problems and guide managers and companies to greater success. At least that's the plan.
WHEN ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
Here's an observation. Instead of mucking around in the constitution over gay marriage--which is not where the founding fathers planned for the constitution to make law--how about amending it to fix another real problem. There are arguments about term limits for legislators from time to time. I think it is time to set a retirement age for Congressmen and for Supreme Court Justices.
Sure, I know different people age differently and some are still intellectually brilliant into advanced age, but that is statistically not the case. I believe there should be a mandatory retirement from both Congress and the Supreme Court at age 80. Even with advances in health care and aging, there seems to be a marked drop off in mental acuity and quickness at 80+.
There should probably also be a term limit on Congressmen and Senators and Justices of 30 years. That is 5 Senate terms, which is really too long, but if a Senator is elected fairly young, he/she might still be a good legislator somewhere in his/her 60's, or even early 70's. But enough is enough. If Strom Thurmond didn't prove that before, then Robert Byrd is still here to remind us of how long is too long. Enough is enough, isn't it? But would any sitting member of Congress have the nerve to author a bill to limit these old lions terms? I hope so, for our country's sake.
THE PRICE OF "PROGRESS?"
Add another legendary plant or two to the casualty list. The Maytag, Newton, IA plant is going to be history. Odds are good that the Hoover (vacuum cleaner) plant in Canton, OH is also likely to join the ranks of places like my two alma maters--Huffy Bicycles (Celina, OH) and Rubbermaid (Wooster, OH). These are just a small fraction of the US plants that are gone. These are just a couple that had some significance either in my world...or were notable in recent news. The jobs those plants provided are gone, at least temporarily.
I hope the displaced employees will learn new skills and that their states and communities will attract new jobs for them. Sadly, the old term "job security" only exists in the history books, but the basis for it resided in an employee's own personal skills and his/her education. I feel bad for those affected. It's called "progress" sometimes, but it doesn't feel so good if it's your job, or the livelihood of someone close to you that gets wiped out by "progress." Hopefully, when one door closes, another will open.
Week of June 12-16, 2006 -- Some general economic directions that seem likely:
This week's readings of inflation at the wholesale and consumer levels heightened fears that inflationary pressures linger in the domestic economy. After 30 consecutive months increases in commodities like oil, metals and paper, what should we expect?
These concerns increase the odds that the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee will raise interest rates for the 17th consecutive time at its June 28-29 meeting to 5.25%. But that will probably be it for this year, unless something extreme (terrorism, etc.) happens later in the year. Ben Bernanke and the Fed wants to rein in inflation--but not by causing a recession.
Consumers are turning cautious and spending should trend slower this summer, dampening inflation in other than oil pricing--which goes--(who knows where?) probably upward. Every one of the 18 categories of consumer spending monitored by BIG Research's Economic and Consumer panel was trending DOWN from May levels. Is that a good enough indicator?
Everyone wonders, and I sure don't know, but I'm betting that the stock market will likely meander about, trading in a range and over-reacting (temporarily) to the slightest of scares. I don't think it will tank, nor do I think it will soar--absent some very unusual events. There is still a lot of money looking for places to go. Companies have lots of cash sitting on balance sheets, and while the robust economy is slowing, it isn't stopping.
In other news, business inventories and retail sales rose less than expected, industrial production decreased unexpectedly, and a look at regional economic conditions hinted at a deceleration in economic activity in most areas. Expect housing to slow and become less volatile as demand slackens along with rising interest rates and the apprehension among speculators that the best days for flipping are over.
As campaigning for the 2006 mid-term elections really heats up, it will garner the lions share of attention in the news, which is not all bad. But that's another story entirely.
All in all, as our country suffers economic cycles, and we must suffer them too--hopefully, we can suffer them wisely. We live in the best place in the world, and have (overall) the best standard of living. If we act prudently, and elect the right officials, we should be able to stay that way for many Father's Days to come--China, Korea, Iran, Venezuela and Iraq, et. al. notwithstanding.
Best, John
Comments