THE ENTERPRISE
This was a special week, as we held our Tenth Annual Reunion Conference, and spent 2-1/2 days discussing a topic that seems to be on everyone's mind: The Future of Work. What will Americans (that's us) do in the next ten years? How will we compete? Or will we? Where have all the good jobs gone? What new ones will spring up? And what kind of people will get them?
THE DEATH OF THE AMERICAN DREAM
There is a big debate in the media and among politicians about the "bifurcation" (a word we used a lot) of American workers (and for that matter, politicians.). Are Americans all that much better or worse off? It depends on which statistics you want to use to support your position. American wage earners are paying a lower percentage of wages in taxes than they did 5-6 years ago (3.3% vs. 3.6%), but that isn't the whole story.
MORE STUFF & MORE DEBT & MORE SATISFACTION AND MORE ANXIETY
Americans have more amenities in their homes than ever before too: TV, Cable, TIVO, Air Conditioning, Dishwashers, iPods, Cell Phones, etc., etc. Those same Americans also have more credit card debt than ever; more households have two wage earners (in the minority of households where there are two wage earners). Workers compared to surveys in the 1970's are MORE satisfied with their work than they were then. Unions a much weaker--down from 20% of American workers as members to about 12% and many of those public employees.
(Sidebar: If Unions were formed to "protect workers rights" isn't it interesting that the growth area for Unions is public employees? What might we conclude about that? The governments they work for are as likely to abuse them as the old time "bosses?")
NO ARGUMENT--PLENTY TO WORRY ABOUT
Old time, cradle to grave jobs and the benefits that went with them are gone. They are victims not of malicious management, but of global competition spurred on by rapid change, explosive growth of the Internet and information/communications technology, and the need to compete. Old jobs paying (temporarily) high wages are leaving the US and being replaced by new economy jobs, requiring new knowledge and paying less money. That's a fact; face it.
NOTE TO POLITICIANS STARTING TO CAMPAIGN FOR ELECTION:
No politician or government agencies can create jobs unless they do it with your tax dollars. They can (temporarily) tilt the playing field in your favor, but just like "water finds its level" this will not "hold back the tides of global competition." What Americans have to do is what they have always done: learn to make the best of it and find new ways to compete, work and earn part of a growing pie that they help grow (instead of fighting for part of a shrinking pie). What politicians (those who get elected) can do is to CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE TO CREATING THE KIND OF JOBS THAT CAN AND WILL STAY IN THE USA. The free enterprise system--owners, managers and workers--has to take over.
2nd NOTE TO POLITICIANS AND VOTERS
This is not rocket science. A budget can only be balanced one of two ways: spend less or tax more. If you don't tax more and do spend less, you go into debt. (American households have an average of $8000 of credit card debt and the US government's debt is proportionally about that bad too.) To create growth, the US must deploy the capital its companies have into better places that competing countries. This is something the US has historically excelled at doing. Now it the time to do it in both the private and public sectors.
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THE TENTH REUNION CONFERENCE FINDINGS;
I'd need more space that this to describe the wealth of discussion topics, brilliant moderators and profound conclusions reached at this year's conference. In deference to conciseness, I will share four primary conclusions that were reached:
FOUR POINTS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF WORK IN AMERICA
1) More attention must and will be given to the integration of personal and work lives, and the successful new leaders of the next decade will be those who emphasize and build upon this fact. The leading edge companies are choosing leaders on this basis.
2) There are two primarily different kinds of thinkers: sequential thinkers (thinks of tasks in order, takes directions and performs them in sequence--like a "river" flows) and simultaneous thinkers (sees the big picture, and understands where all of the pieces fit, then undertakes things accordingly-more like a "big lake" with lots of currents). Some people can move back and forth, but everyone is "primarily" one or the other--yet both are needed. The new global competition requires that directions be planned by "simultaneous" thinkers who make strategy and supported by "sequential" thinkers who execute that strategy.
3) Speed and technology will both drive and enable what happens in the next decade, moving and changing faster than ever, in circumstances that are often more complex than ever and beyond many people's imagination in some cases.
4) Since the turn of the 20th-Century, self-employment fell from 90%+ to a low of 5-10% in the 1980's (the measurements are necessarily imprecise) and is now strongly on the rise again, passing through the 20% range and perhaps in the 30% range as displaced workers return to an employment model of the past. We are becoming a nation of tradesmen (and women) again...and the "Long Tail" (from the book of that name) is providing a wealth of niche opportunities for those courageous enough to try "plying their trade" to support themselves and their families. The old saying "what goes around comes around" takes on new meaning.
This is heavy stuff, as I said, arrived at after much debate and deliberation--but it is important beyond belief. Whether you think about it or not, and assuming you care about it, this is your future--and mine--and out children's. IF YOU HAVE THE EAR--OR THE ADDRESS--OF YOUR LEGISLATOR, PLEASE SHARE THIS WITH HIM/HER. We will be creating a longer version of the Four Points to share with them in the next few weeks.
Until then, study this carefully and consider it well. I hope you find hope and faith for the future in the conclusions we reached.
Best, John
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