Telling It Like It Is

THE ENTERPRISE--Poll Errors & The Good Old Days

THE ENTERPRISE

IF ONLY THERE WERE OBJECTIVE SOURCES OF NEWS--THERE AREN'T ANYMORE!
With less than two weeks to go to the mid-term elections, I can only say this:  watching the news and reading the news media will probably mislead potential voters.  Since the media is biased liberal to the tune of about 90%, there is every reason to see the negative bias being portrayed in everything from "scandal reports" to polls.  Then there are the (few) media sources that are biased conservative too (Fox News, Conservative Talk Radio, and the Wall Street Journal, etc.).  So who to believe is a big issue.

POLLS AND POLLSTERS CAN LIE AS EASILY AS TELL THE TRUTH
Polls are a tricky thing, and quite untrustworthy.  Remember the last Presidential election when the early exit polls showed John Kerry winning by a landslide.  WRONG--Bad polling.  Ask the question the right or wrong way, and the results can...and will...be skewed the way you want them to lean.  Thus media polls of 600-1000 people conducted by liberally biased pollsters can easily have an error rate far greater than the 4-6% claimed.  These polls are convenient de-motivators to voters.  If you candidate is trailing badly in a poll, why vote for him/her?  Because the poll may be wrong!  The only poll that matters is the one counted by ballots cast by Americans.

CARTOONS OFTEN TELL MORE TRUTH THAN ANY MEDIA OUTLET
A recent Investor's Business Daily's cartoon hit national distribution (I saw it in the Columbus Dispatch), and that alone tells me something about its quality and insight.  The cartoon pictures President Bush sitting in front of a sign, to which he is pointing.  He poses the question, "you ask me if the economy is good?"  The sign says, in large letters,   "The GREAT ECONOMY"  In the lower portion of the cartoon, the words "what you see in the media" and an arrow point at a TV screen in which the picture of the President pointing remains, but in the TV screen, the sign has been cropped to eliminate all but the two letters "NO" in ECONOMY.    Beware manipulated information--and during an election time--that is nearly all of it.  Study the candidates past records.  Consider what they seemed to stand for.  Ignore the negative ads--they are all borderline on truth and few really deal with actual issues.

BOTTOM LINE:  GO VOTE--(especially if you are a concerned Republican)- & take others with you!
A couple of leading Democratic campaign experts are wringing their hands about the fact that many Congressional races are much too close for comfort.  Could it be that they know the polls being trumpeted in the media are biased and wrong?  Perhaps.  Or maybe they are worried that Democratic voters will think the elections are in the bag, because the polls said so, and won't get out and vote.  Hmmm.  Which is it?   We'll see on Nov. 8.

2008 CANDIDATES:
I have already started to research the two people that I think are the leading "fresh face" Presidential prospects for 2008:  Barack Obama for the Democrats and Mitt Romney for the Republicans.  Hillary is spoiled goods.  Kerry, Gore and Edwards are proven losers.  McCain will be too old, Guiliani too East Coast, Frist too bland, and Allen is already taking shots about his misadventures.  Keep your eyes open for more on these two.  (Obama's book, The Audacity of Hope, tells his story and reveals many of his beliefs.  I am still looking for the right resource on Romney.)  More on this in later issues

THE BEST ISSUE--ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
If the US would pursue Energy Independence (like the 1960's "man on the moon" project), what might the results be?
--starve militant Islamic countries from income due to oil
--independence from radical oil producers like Chavez' Venezuela
--gain an advantage over China, India, et. al.
--reduce global warming and reduce the greenhouse effect
--make the US economy stronger, a lower deficit & improved balance of trade
--reduce the impact of global oil speculators on our prices and economy
--a whole new range of technology developments related to energy use, conservation, creation, etc.
Add your own to the list...I just named a few obvious benefits.

THE GOOD OLD DAYS--SOME MEMORIES TO SAVOR
Finally, I wanted to include something that I received recently that made me yearn for the "good old days."  Perhaps some readers will be too young to appreciate this.  If you are under 30, show it to your parents.  They can explain it to you.  Perhaps longing for older, simpler times is a sign of getting old--or maybe it is a sign of getting wiser.  Either way, enjoy this, one more time...

Best, John

WAY, WAY BACK...TO SIMPLER, AND BETTER TIMES...
Be careful when your read this cause it may bring to mind a time that was warmer, kinder and more loving and simply might cause your eyes get moist. NOW--Close your eyes...And go back.  Then read on:

..Before the Internet or PC or the MAC or Cable TV or satellite radio
..Before terrorists, semi-automatic weapons and crack houses....
..Before iPods, Playstations, SEGA, Super Nintendo, even before Atari...
..Before cell phones, text messaging, CD's, DVD's, voicemail and e-mail....
..way back........way.....way.....way back.....

I'm talkin' bout hide and seek at dusk; and kick the can.
Red light, Green light, Red Rover....Red Rover..... Mother May I? Hula Hoops
Playing kickball & dodgeball until the first...no...second...no...third streetlight came on
Ring around the Rosie, London Bridge, Hot potato, Hop Scotch, Jump rope
--Parents stood on the front porch and yelled (or whistled) for you to come home; no pagers or cell phones
--Seeing shapes in the clouds and telling about them
Endless summer days and hot summer nights (no A/C) with the windows open
The sound of crickets
Running through the sprinkler
Cereal boxes with that GREAT prize in the bottom
Cracker jacks with the same thing
Ice pops with 2 sticks you could break and share with a friend

but wait.....there's more....
Watchin' Saturday Morning cartoons: Fat Albert, Road Runner, Smurfs
Watchin' Sunday morning oldies (Abbott & Costello, Three Stooges)
Wonder Woman & Superman Underoos
Catchin' lightning bugs in a jar
--Christmas morning
--Your first day of school
--Bedtime Prayers and Goodnight Kisses
--Climbing trees
Swinging as high as you could to try and reach the sky
Getting an Ice Cream off the Good Humor Truck
A million mosquito bites and sticky fingers
Jumpin' down the steps & Jumpin' on the bed
Pillow fights & Sleep-overs
A 13" black and white TV in your room meant you were RICH
--Runnin' till you were out of breath
--Laughing so hard that your stomach hurt
--Being tired from PLAYING
--WORK: meant taking out the garbage or doing the dishes
--Your first crush and your first kiss (I mean the one that you kept your mouth  CLOSED and your eyes OPEN)
Rainy days at school meant playing "Heads up 7UP" or hangman" in the classroom, Remember that?

Oh, I'm not finished yet....
Kool-Aid and Lemonade were the drinks of the summer, but so was a swig from the garden hose
Giving your friends a ride on your bike's handlebars
Wearing your new shoes on the first day of school, even though they pinched
Class Field Trips with soggy sandwiches and sweaty buses.
--When nearly everyone's mom was at home when the kids got there
--When a quarter seemed like a fair allowance; and another quarter a MIRACLE
--When ANY parent could discipline ANY kid, or feed him, or use him to carry groceries...And nobody, not even the kid, thought a thing of it.
When your parents took you to McDonalds and you thought you were soooo COOL
--When being sent to the principal's office was nothing compared to the fate that awaited you at home.
--Basically, we were in fear for our lives but it wasn't because of drive by shootings, drugs, gangs, etc.
--Our parents and grandparents were a much bigger threat! And some of us are still afraid of em!

Didn't that feel good? Just to go back and say, "Yeah, I remember that!"
Well, let's keep going!! Let's go back to the time when...
Decisions were made by going "eeny-meeny-miney-mo"
Mistakes were corrected by simply exclaiming, "do over!"
"Race issues" meant arguing about who ran the fastest.
Money issues were handled by whoever was the banker in "monopoly"
Catching fireflies could happily occupy an entire evening
It wasn't odd to have two or three "best" friends.
Being old, referred to anyone over 20. (CRAP! I'm officially old!)
The worst thing you could catch from the opposite sex was cooties.
--Nobody was prettier than Mom
Scrapes and bruises were kissed by mom or grandma and made better
It was a big deal to finally be tall enough to ride the "big people" rides at the amusement park.
--Getting a foot of snow was a dream come true.
Abilities were discovered because of a "double-dog-dare"
Spinning around, getting dizzy and falling down was cause for giggles.
The worst embarrassment was being picked last for a team.
Water balloons were the ultimate, ultimate weapon.
Older siblings were your worst tormentors, but also your fiercest protector

If you can remember most or all of these, then you have LIVED!!!
Pass this on to anyone who may need a break from their "grown
up" life......I TRIPLE DOG DARE YA!!!!!!

THE ENTERPRISE--Comedians

THE ENTERPRISE

WHEN THE COMEDIANS MAKE MORE SENSE THAN THE POLITICIANS
Let's start this week with some comedy.  I watched Dennis Miller's Vegas act at Caesar's, filmed last January. He made more sense than most of our political leaders and gave a more clear and insightful review of things than nearly all of our leading (so called) newscasters.  Maybe we're missing something.  Robin Williams is starring in a new movie, Man of the Year in which a comedian makes fun of politicians and is convinced/decides to run for President--and gets elected.  I haven't seen the movie, but one (old) line from the trailers is frighteningly apt:  "Polticians are like dirty diapers; they need to be changed regularly and for the same reason."  A lot will be come November.

THROWING THE BABY OUT WITH THE BATH WATER
We have some good political leaders.  We have a lot more that are not so good.  The problem is the goods ones are running for their lives, after running in danger of being thrown out with the bath water of a failed Congress, a failed (for now) Presidency..and yet, if you gave me a chance to choose between George Bush and John Kerry knowing what I know now, I'd still reject Kerry and choose Bush.  However, expect Bush to get "real" about Iraq in the next 3 months, no matter how badly the elections go for his party.  He sees that a change in direction is needed, and has assigned the analysis to a couple of bipartisan old pros (Baker and Hamilton) .  They'll tell him what he should do, and he'll have the reason to do it.  It won't happen before the elections.  But it will happen sooner rather than later.  (You read it here.)

IF YOU DIDN'T HEAR, THINGS ARE NOT SO BAD IN THE ECONOMY
But then why does everybody seem to think things are bad?  Because good news is no draw, so the media focuses on the bad news.  Recent studies by impartial agencies proved that negative news was given 3-4 times as much air time as positive and the winner, CBS, led with 80% negative.  Ahh, Katie, how can you smile when things are so bad?

HOW BAD IS IT?
1) The Dow just topped 12,000 for the week.  Earnings reports are mostly up.
2) Inflation has slowed; that bogeyman the Fed has been holding at bay has wilted with the price of oil.  Drive speculators out of the oil pricing and viola'  it's back from the stratosphere.
3) The deficit is now half what it was expected to be and dropping.  But that will only be temporary if the Dems win both Houses of Congress.  They'll stomp all the tax relief programs that have fueled revenues, and then watch the deficit grow again, because they can't rein in spending enough.  Too much of it's in their favorite entitlement programs.
--Why, they might even be able to cause their own little recession in late 2007.
4) But meanwhile, the collapse of housing sort of, well, quit collapsing.  Once again, drive out the speculators, and poof!... the market comes back to a sensible level...not a boom, but not a bust either.

BUT WHAT ABOUT OUR JOBS?
5) Employment, those jobs that Benedict Arnold CEOs were exporting keep popping up all over.  So much so that the Dept. of Labor keeps having to make massive "corrections" in their reported job creation numbers--like 800,000 jobs it somehow failed to count so far in 2006 (A 40% error rate, that's all).  See, DOL only gets reports from large employers, and they aren't adding many jobs.  They're hiring contractors--small employers--and those jobs only show up later in the "household gains"--causing massive errors upon which all kinds of people over-react and make dumb decisions.

NOW I'VE GOT THAT OUT OF MY SYSTEM
Here's what's up.
JOBS GO UNFILLED--News flash:  there are millions of baby boomers that will be leaving the work force (if they can afford to) over the next decade.  The result:  shortages of skills, loss of legacy knowledge and a massive disruption in the work force.  Smart companies will find ways to use flex time and part time employment to help the boomers work their way in transition to retirement over a period of years.  Shorter work days, more freedom of the hours, telecommuting, and more will do it.

ENERGY INDEPENDENCE IS POSSIBLE--IN A DECADE--Ethanol is not the answer--it's only a small part of it.  It takes almost as much energy to make ethanol as it does gas.  The energy is just used differently.  And If the entire State of Iowa's corn crop (one of the US leading corn states) were used to make ethanol, it would create feed shortages worse than the fuel shortages it solved.  Save energy using known technology.  **Drill in the Gulf (new deep deposits), **drill in the ANWr (there's so little wildlife up there, who are we kidding?), **Use lightweight materials, aerodynamic vehicles, low rolling friction tires on both cars and trucks, **ban or tax the gas guzzling behemoths (those monster SUVs) out of existence, **install compact fluorescent light bulbs everywhere, and there are more than that.  And BAN the purchase and use of oil from countries like Iran that thumb their nose at US!

STOP GIVING THE BASTARDS OUR MONEY
Cut off all economic and other aid to "renegade nuclear countries" (Iran & North Korea for starters..others will get the message), and to others who refuse to act responsibly.  Quit bribing them.  Bribes don't work.  Divert that money to a) Energy Independence, b) Borders, Ports and Homeland Security,(with a sensible, realistic immigration policy) c) Reducing the Deficit but NOT cutting Defense spending, and if there's any left after funding those three biggies, use it to take a shot at bringing our Health Care System's Information Technology into the 21st century so we can track what's really wrong.

NOBODY'S LISTENING--THE SYSTEM'S BROKEN
But WAIT A MINUTE!  We can't do all that.  Someone won't like it and they'll run to the bleeding heart media and stage demonstrations and make a big fuss.  That's why our politicans don't have read debates or run real issues based campaigns any more--NOBODY'S LISTENING.  The ads are all smear campaigns.  We're all sick of them.   If one participant in a debate tries to make a real issue or answer the question posed honestly (I saw Mike Dewine try last night--it was futile), the other one (in this case Sherrod Brown, but whoever) goes off on a pre-programmed sequence of attack points designed to stick in the minds of anyone who happens to tune in by mistake.  When Brown was asked a question, he didn't even give a moment of what he said to address any aspect of the question.  He just launched into attack tirage number 2, and then number 3.

So, after my own tirade, if you are still reading, WHAT IN THE HELL CAN WE DO?
VOTE...no matter what,  or whom you choose.   Ideally, do some research about what the various candidates really stand for and which one would be best.  When all else fails, choose the one whose party affiliation most likely matches what you believe.   It is the only recourse we have, and all those little "one votes," add up.

NOTE:  In some cases, the best candidates will lose, anyway.  In Ohio, the candidate who is best qualified to be governor is Ken Blackwell, the Secretary of State, who is a smart, honest (and black) Republican, (but the fact that he's black is incidental because even Jessie Jackson wouldn't support him--that's endorsement enough in my book).  Blackwell will lose to a "neuter", because the Republicans in Ohio, MISLED by Gov. Bob Taft (candidate for the worst governor in a major state, perhaps ever--his 8% approval rate confirms that) and a bunch of crooks and thieves have poisoned the well.  Senator Mike DeWine's connection to President Bush--even though he's opposed Bush multiple times--could also sink his Senate candidacy.

BACK TO BASICS
When a business is broken, to fix it, you usually need to strip it back to basics.  That is what will happen to the USA over the next 2 years.  it won't be pretty, but it is necessary.  Once that is done, you start putting it back together, one piece at a time.  That will be George Bush's successor's job.  Choosing that leader is our real top priority..   I'm already doing my homework.  It's not too soon for you to do yours.  Then we need to all become ACTIVISTS.

Charles Dickens opened  A Tale of  Two Cities with the words, IT WAS THE BEST OF TIMES, IT WAS THE WORST OF TIMES...  but few people recall how that paragraph ends:  IT WAS A TIME NOT UNLIKE ALL OTHER TIMES.

Best,  John
.

THE ENTERPRISE--Pain & Politics

THE ENTERPRISE

Email-experience of the week:  An email from a friend, and whether it is actually true or not..IT SHOULD BE!
"I called a business today and received the following greeting from the automated attendant:
"Press '1' if you speak English."
"Press '2' to disconnect until you can."

THIS IS THE USA AND WE SPEAK ENGLISH HERE
This is the United States of America and if people want to come here and live here and enjoy its benefits, they need to learn to speak its language--which is English.  The only thing that this message could have done better was to make the Press 2 announcement in Spanish ... and perhaps several other languages.

A BANKRUPTCY OF IDEAS--WHY IS THIS NOT A SURPRISE
News flash:  Air America, the liberal talk-radio network started by Al Franken and investor friends just filed for bankruptcy protection.  It's been bankrupt of original ideas since it started, so this is the normal evolution of things.    Surprisingly, Franken was unavailable for comment; probably off writing a book to criticize some well known Conservative.

WAL-MART CAN'T WIN
As Wal-Mart has its first ever earnings "blip" and withdraws from Korea and Germany, after losing to local competition, it struggles to succeed in the UK where its acquisition ASDA was doing better before Wal-Mart, and is now losing ground to Tesco and others.  Then, when Wal-Mart announces that it will cut the price of many popular generic drugs to $4 to help low income people it meets with more criticism:  first, it is plotting some evil scheme to take advantage of these low income people, or second, it is trying to bulldoze its way to still more market  share.  I think that is called "competing," isn't it?

WANT SOMETHING ELSE TO WORRY ABOUT?
People are eating more, getting fatter, and thus need larger cars which guzzle more gas.  One of the car companies is even using this as an advertising theme.  Snack food companies and fast food giants are making "healthier" junk food--an oxymoron.  There is no way I can rationalize that a Big Mac and Biggie Fries or a tasty bag of fried chips are really good for me, no matter what oil they are fried in.  I still love and indulge occasionally on good kettle cooked chips,, and my car veers naturally to the Krispy Kreme store when the "HOT NOW" sign is on.  But please, don't  insult the intelligence of those who can think.   These are not healthy foods.  And don't mislead the vast majority of Americans who are too lazy to think...junk foods are still NOT good for you.  Plus, you'll need a larger car and more gas. (pun intended)

HOW ABOUT A BIG WORRY--ONLY LOOSELY TIED TO ELECTIONS
State and local governments are building huge deficits in their pension funds.  Much bigger than the corporate ones that get all the press coverage.  How about $2 Trillion (Yes, that is Trillion with a T.)  What will they need to do, one of these days?  Same as corporations--either lower benefits or raise prices (in their case that is your taxes.)  There is no magic solution except these two--save perhaps sliding out the retirement age to 70 or beyond--which is a virtual certainty one of these days.  Even the growth in the stock market won't solve this one.

---Not only did  the Benedict Arnold CEOs NOT sell out Americans (sorry Lou Dobbs, John Kerry, et. al.--stuff it)...the jobs that were going to find their way offshore did, and will continue to do so.  The jobs that Americans fight for and want to keep, for good reasons (too big, too bulky, to strategically important to import) will stay here.  One big surprise: In the past 5 years, new US jobs offset those that moved offshore (albeit different jobs, and often at lower pay levels).   The net gain in jobs since 2001--all 1.7 million of them--were due to growth in employment in the Health Care industry--and that will continue to grow, not decline and more of us get older and live longer.  Tip to new college grads and job seekers:  try the health care field.   It's like the Eveready Bunny--going and going and going.

WHAT ELSE DO WE KNOW FOR SURE--PAIN & POLITICS?
---GM & Ford are getting slammed by Toyota and Honda, and it will get worse before it gets better.  It doesn't matter that GM is building better cars or that Ford has a new CEO.   Hyundai and Kia will put new pressure on them all in the next wave of global competition.  Ranking the old Big Three:  1) GM is making better vehicles can survive, but only with extreme measures--like getting rid of its ridiculous JOBS program; Chrysler can make it by shrinking to just the low-price popular products division of DaimlerChrysler, and Ford is in BIG trouble, with only its trucks standing tall.  It needs the harshest triage...we'll see if the new CEO and the Ford family are up for it.
---Only fools believe that President Bush is manipulating oil prices.  C'mon people, this is a global market.   Bush has done a lot of things, most of them not so good, but this one, even he, Cheney and Rumsfeld can't pull off.  If they could, they probably would...but they can't.  The trouble is that the less educated, intelligent and conversant with important matters of the day, the more gullible and naive the citizens of the US become--all fueled by malcontents like Al Franken and his buddies.  However, that said, Americans should be upset.
---Congress was a record-breaking DO NOTHING GANG, and I place a lot of the blame on weak leadership--Bill Frist and Denny Hastert didn't lead the party in majority control to get things done..  Both need to be, and will be replaced.  Everybody seemed to "like them" (their peers) but that wasn't their job.  Their job was to lead, govern and confront the big issues, driving them to resolution.  The prospect of Harry Reed as one of those leaders is scary indeed, and so is the rest of the gang that will take control of the committees in Congress if the Dems sweep in Nov.  Just imagine this. (Scarier than the Foley debacle by far.)

A REALLY SCARY SCENARIO
You wake up next Jan. with Harry Reed as Senate Majority Leader AND Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker (3rd in line for the Presidency!!!!???AAAARRGGHH)  Key committees would be chaired by such Democratic dignitaries as Ted Kennedy (Education & Labor), Charles Rangell (Ways & Means), Robert Byrd--yes, he's still alive--(Appropriations), Joe Biden (Foreign Relations), and more...  But the way things are going, this could very likely be the outcome of the mid-term elections ... thanks to the current GOP's long list of screw-ups and the Bush administration's blind pig-headedness.   It's one thing to have strong resolve.  That's good.   It's another to take it to extremes, be just plain stubborn, and then penalize yourself and your party for it (especially if you were at all wrong).

A NATION OF POLITICAL ILLITERATES, FOOLS AND DUPES
Am I upset about the upcoming election?  Damn right.  I have seen nothing but negative ads.  No plans, no policies, just mud.    It would be fun to throw out the whole bunch, but you gotta vote for somebody to go to Washington.  The American people are so "dumbed down" that some of them actually think that "perky Katie Couric" is a real newscaster.  GAG.   Many actually believe the crap being fed to themas if it were news and the truth, by CNN, CBS, et. al.  Since when did the news media get to "make up the news" if they didn't like reporting the facts.  But why shouldn't Americans at large be uninformed--they never take time to think or to read anything except the TV Guide to see what sitcom or reality show is on TV next.  Somebody needs to make a reality show called YOUR NEXT PRESIDENT and strand the whole bunch of candidates on a desert island to fight it out.  Thje winner, and "survivor", gets the job.  And that could well be Hillary--isn't she the toughest nut of the lot?

SO WHAT TO DO?
You know I never end without at least a shot at what to do.  First, keep things in perspective. Consider the Business Week magazine headlines I found (while file cleaning) this week: Cover story: Can America Compete--"The US economy...faced with the urgent need to reduce its budget and trade deficits,....may well see its standard of living decline, and The Hollow Corporation--The decline of manufacturing threatens the entire US economy...  The dates on these were April 20, 1987 and March 3 1986.  What goes around, comes around.  Surely the world has changed in 20 years, but many truths remain self-evident (didn't our founding father use that line?).

What we can do is first of all: VOTE...and for my money, choose the best individual IF you can figure out enough about what they stand for to know.  When in doubt, VOTE REPUBLICAN, not because the GOP has done such a good job.  It hasn't.  Vote this way because at least many Republicans have positive plans besides "get Bush out" and might, just might, be scared enough by a really close call to begin governing and leading again.   At least they are the most likely to fix their own messes.  For the Bush haters--you've pretty much got him for 2 more years--unless a Democratic landslide sets up an impeachment vote, (Won't that be a mess?) 

DON'T CONFUSE PERSONALITY WITH POLICY AND PHILOSOPHY.  To the few Democratic or liberal readers still on the mailing list--I KNOW--you can say "I told you so," about Bush, but your party and its leadership is so bereft of positive new ideas, that a solid Democratic landslide will still be a DISASTER for the USA.  The scary gang I named about will be in control and they and their colleagues want to take you back to the era of FDR, big UNIONs and BIG government control--TAX and SPEND because we know better than you what to do  (Sadly, in the case of their loyal constituents, they are probably right!).   

Worse yet, the appeasers and bleeding hearts will stop the war on terror in its tracks and open the country's doors to the Islamic terrorists and the car bombs and IEDs will be going off on our streets and road instead of Baghdad's.

In just over 2 weeks, get to the polls and vote--for the best man or woman running.  Do enough homework to form a good opinion.  Or get an absentee ballot and vote in the peace and quiet of your home where you can do some research on the slate of candidates.   Some Democratic Governors should and will win.  The Republican candidates are just too weak.  But IF, as a nation, we turn over control of Congress to the Democrats, look out.  And don't say you weren't warned. 

Best, John

THE ENTERPRISE--Who's in trouble?

THE ENTERPRISE

There are so many things to cover, I just chose a variety this week.

FORCED RANKING AND DIFFERENTIATION
First, let's touch briefly on whether it is a good, or bad, idea to use some kind of forced ranking in evaluation of people's performance in their jobs?  Jack and Susie Welch weighed in on this topic in their column in the Oct. 2 issue of Business Week.  I heard a lot of Jack's voice in this column, and mostly I agree with him.  There are always weaker performers in any organization, although the reasons vary widely, and the individuals may or may not be to blame.

Bottom line, the value of forced rankings--as long as the percentages are not rigid, is that it rewards the strongest performers substantially more than the "average."  There is way to much aversion to giving criticism during performance reviews, therefore everyone becomes a "good person."  That cultivates a cutlure of amiable mediocrity which may win popularity contests but will not win in a brutally competitive global business world.

Weaker performers know it--at some level--and they deserve to be told honestly, and given an chance to opt out or be placed out.  If there is a better place for them in another organization, that is a better solution for both their former and new employers.  This isn't harsh or unfair, it's actually humane and fair treatment.

A TALE OF TWO FACTORIES (BW 9/18/2006)
If you don't read Business Week, you need to find the story from the Sept. 18 issue about the difference between two Tenneco factories, both making auto exhaust systems.  One is near Shanghai, China, then other in a small town in Michigan.  As you might suspect, these plants are very different.  The surprising/not surprising facts are that the one is the US is both more profitable, and more nervous about its future.  It is a well written contrast between two different ways of competing, coexisting in the same company, close to the markets each serves.  (Exhaust systems are way too bulky to ship across the ocean economically...for now anyway.)  There are lessons to learn here.

CAN DELL ESCAPE FROM THE "PENALTY BOX?"
I think Michael Dell is a sharp guy.  He and his company forgot the most important lesson I wrote about in my book The Shape Shifters (Wiley, 1997).  The customers define value in their minds and the "shape of value" is always shiftings--so you'd better shift with it.  Dell didn't.   Can it now?  Too soon to tell.  I think "probably" is a good answer, but once you fall behind the shifts, catching up is hell.  I'd place my bet that Dell does catch up, but it will have some scars on its legendary reputation when it does.

ARE WE IN FOR A RECESSION IN 2007?
Probably not, but so many things could change that.  If housing's decline is a correction (flushing speculators out of the market) and not an outright collapse, that would help a lot.  If oil pricing stays "moderate", which it could (because it too has flushed a lot of speculators out of the market pricing).  If the Fed stays calm and doesn't raise interest rates, that will help.  The Fed could actually lower rates, but the better bet is that it sits and watches until early 2007.

IS THE PROBLEM BUSH OR THE WHOLE GOP?
Yes, I'm afraid both.  The Wall Street Journal, a paper that usually slants to the right (Republican) recently recapped the GOP record (Oct. 2, 2006 Review and Outlook).  It was ugly.  Ignoring the biggest issue, the war on terror and the Iraq situation, I counted 6 flops and 1 success in the past 2 years.  The flops are pretty well known:  1) Failure to make tax cuts permanent; 2) No immigration reform progress; 3) No real health care system progress; 4) No Social Security reforms; 5) Hurricane Katrina mismanagement; 6) Over-spending and earmarking to retain power, 7) No line item veto for the President.

What was the success?  We put 2 good Justices on the Supreme Court.  The rest is an embarrassment, not counting Bush's mishandling and his administrations hubris.

SO SHOULD YOU VOTE DEMOCRATIC BECAUSE OF THIS?  HELL NO!
The only things worse than voting back most of those screw-up Repulbicans into the Senate and House would be to put the Democrats in there.  As much as I am under-whelmed by Dennis Hastert, the prospect of Nancy Pelosi in that spot is downright gut wrenchingly scary.  Face it.  Both parties are screwed up.  Neither has been exhibiting the kind of leadership we need in Washington--and neither has the President.   

THINGS DO HAVE TO CHANGE--BUT HOW?
Is it time for things to change?  Yes, but how to bring about that change is a much dicier issue.   IF you can find a moderate Democrat running against a clearly incompetent Republican, OK...vote for the Democrat.    But remember, it's always easy for the person who is not holding the office to say how  much better they'd do.  It's not nearly so easy to deliver on those promises.  If ever there was a time to really study the positions, the qualifications and the merits of the candidates (instead of voting that party line), this is the year.

When all the dust settles, Bush will still be the President.  The only question is how lame of a lame duck he will be.  It matters because it hugely affects the US influence in foreign affairs.  We are already damaged badly in that area.  The best medicine would be a really close call in the fall elections.  Maybe those incumbents would pay attention then (but I'm not even sure of that--guess I am getting jaded).  This is about as disappointed I have ever been with our national political system and the people we elected to serve.

I suspect many share both the frustration I feel and the concern about our future direction.  If any of you reading this have a hot-line into our elected officials in Washington, please let me know so we can all use it to tell them how we feel.  That's better than just throwing them out.  Even Jack Welch would probably agree with that.

Best, John

THE ENTERPRISE--Think and Understand

THE ENTERPRISE

THE MIDDLE EAST--A MYSTERY TO WESTERNERS
We don't understand why Iraqis don't grasp the benefits and workings of Democracy so well.  Perhaps it is because we don't understand them and their history very well.  Thomas Friedman, the Pulitzer Prize winning NY Times journalist, wrote a book in 1989-1990.  The title is "From Beirut to Jerusalem."   In it he chronicles his beginnings as a young Jewish foreign correspondent assigned to Middle Eastern cities like Beirut and others.  I am only about 1/4 of the way through the book, and the part I have read already has given me a much better understanding of the conflicts, religious and political history and why current events are unfolding as they are.

Just three examples will help you understand a couple of things better.  He writes:

---"Middle Eastern societies were primarily merchant societies, which dreaded chaos and feared what might happen if control from above was eliminated and all their tribes and sects went at each other.  Therefore, Islamic political thinkers gradually began to argue that obedience to even the cruelest, most illegitimate, non-Islamic despot, who at least kept some order, was preferable to internal warfare. Or, as the ancient Arabic proverb puts it:  Better sixty years of tyranny than one day of anarchy."

I often disagree with Friedman's political position, but I have a growing respect for his knowledge in many areas, and for his ability to synthesize clear conclusion from unclear sets of information.  He explains how different forms of  Middle Eastern authoritarian traditions have evolved, from the Ottoman approach, which was less brutal and more inclusive, to the more brutal, un-Islamic variety, exhibited by many of the ruthless leaders of today's generation. 

Friedman relates a joke that is revealing, and then cites the central problem of today's brutal Islamic leaders:

---"The only joke I ever head about a Syrian President was told by a Lebanese.  It went like this:  After a national "election" in Syria, an aide comes to President Assad and says, "Mr. President, you won the election with a 99.7 percent majority.   That means only three-tenths of 1 percent of the people did not vote for you.  What more could you ask for?"  Assad replies, "Their names."

---"What makes the more brutal form of authoritarianism so dangerous today is that these insecure,  nervous autocrats are not responding to threats against them with simple swords...but with chemical weapons, modern armies, and devastating means of destruction that can reach beyond the royal court to far-flung regions."

Perhaps now you see why I become frustrated when Americans form opinions (myself included) upon  a faulty understanding of the facts and background.  Modern media, with all of its technical competencies and pervasive reporting, only makes matters worse by distorting  the facts or misleading the public.  A few journalists, like Friedman, are worth reading and listening to closely.

WHAT DO WE BELIEVE?  HOW DO WE KNOW?
Gas prices are down, for now at least.  Housing is plummeting.  Inflation is up and a concern.  Savings is still in negative territory, as credit card debt soars.  The Dow-Jones Index on Wall Street is near an all time record. Is the economy doing well or not?   How in the hell is the average American to know.  The US Government statistics that report on our economic position are so flawed that they are often revised by a huge amount just a month or two after they are issued--and after everyone has reacted to them.

Mid-term elections promise to be vicious, placing personalities and politics ahead of plans and policies.   I am unhappy and disappointed with the performance of the Bush administration. Who isn't? (Except maybe W himself.) That doesn't mean I am ready to become a Howard Dean fan and vote Democratic.   He (and they) are worse, because they criticize and second-guess endlessly but offer neither better solutions nor better leadership.   

Brutal dictators and radical leaders continue to gain stature thanks to their outrageous behaviors and the huge coverage of the US mainstream media.   Now several of them have nukes either in place or coming on stream.  Or they control too much of our (wastefully consumed) oil needs.

I watched 30 seconds of Katie Couric do the lead-in on CBS News, went outside and threw up.   Not  only is she the wrong purveyor of "true news" but she and her network add so much spin to the news, that any semblance to the objective truth is rare or coincidental.  I don't need to watch CNN any more (except maybe Glenn Beck, who actually makes sense a lot of the time--I wonder how long he can last).  I  know what it will say about anything--it's Bush's fault and the US is a screwed up mess.

CNBC/MSNBC is a little more interesting, although almost as liberal.  Joe Scarborough makes sense more often than most of their commentators.  I dislike Chris Matthews almost as much as liberals dislike Rush Limbaugh, but they are both entertaining in their own weird way.  The problem is that most Americans get their news in 7 second sound bites from the (mostly) radically liberal TV media.  Fox gives what seems to me a "balanced" story, which means it is probably slanted as I am--to the right.

WHERE CAN WE GET A STRAIGHT STORY?
How do we get "clean information?"  That's a problem which requires more effort than most Americans are willing to exert.  It requires using multiple sources and cross-checking over and over.  The Internet makes it possible.   People just won't spend the time.  Some of the more objective sources are those like The Economist, a foreign owned magazine/newspaper weekly. 

All the major broadcast and cable news networks except Fox spin the news hard left--supporting the Democratic party line and philosophy.  So does the NY Times, the LA Times and most other big city papers in the US.  Fox and the Wall Street Journal spin it to the right--more correct in my opinion--but then it is also more in line with my political philosophy and leanings, as I noted in the prior paragraph.

It's enough to make a person want to take a break--and I have.    I actually sat quietly thinking for a while the other day.  I concluded that nothing complicated is ever easy to understand and the world is certainly more complex than it has ever been before.  But that is no excuse to condemn policies that are right based on the politics or the personalities of those who propose them. 

THE BEST PRESCRIPTION FOR GOOD NEWS--AND GOOD GOVERNANCE
Read and consult conflicting sources.  Consider their leanings as you consume their content.  Cross check what you can, and openly discuss the issues--but not only with those who agree with your perspective.  Listen to those who make cogent arguments from a different viewpoint.  Then resort to the real hard work--THINK ABOUT IT, and form your best opinion and act on it. 

We will be voting again in less than 2 months.  Carefully consider how you will exercise this  great privilege and carry out this daunting responsibility to cast your one, small, seemingly insignificant vote for the right candidates, with the best chance of improving things in this complex world  of ours.  There are millions like you out there, and those little one votes add up.   It is our right and out duty.  Treasure it.

Best, John