THE ENTERPRISE-Special for the 2007 New Year
PEOPLE WE LOST IN 2006 THAT I'LL MISS
Don Knotts, for his always funny, wonderful bravado as a shaky sidekick to Andy Griffith--and more...
Louis Rukeyser, for his artful presentation of the vagaries of Wall Street...
Mickey Spillane, for inventing the "tough-guy-private eye" novel (along with Raymond Chandler)..
Steve Irwin, for his nutty joy of taking risks, even though it ultimately cost him his life...
Jack Palance, for his "Western bad guy" portrayals and one armed-pushups at age 72...
Peter Boyle, for his many lines on "Raymond" that every guy wants to say but doesn't--"Holy Crap"...
James Brown, for his boundless energy and making the musical line "I Feel Good" a legendary one
A FEW KEY EVENTS OF 2006
In case you forgot:
--January--We quit "interfering" in Palestinian elections and Hamas, the suicide bomber organization ends up in charge--the "inmates have the keys"--for now anyway.
--February--The Islamic radicals don't think we should mind them beheading people, but get mightily upset over some cartoons that portray their Prophet in an inappropriate manner--and riot and kill people!!!
--April--Illegal immigrants don't go to work, and demonstrate because they sneaked into the US and we must not be treating them as well as they hoped???
--July--Mexico has an election and can't decide who got elected. Did they go to the Florida election commission training program or what?
--Summer--Hezbollah "spits in Israel's face" by abduction people and firing rockets. The Israeli do the logical thing and blast them...and for some reason most of the world (including too many in the US) thinks Israel is wrong--which tells us how screwed up things have become.
--August--An al Qaeda terrorist "planes plot" is foiled in Britain, but is a somber warning that future threats may come from within both the UK...and the US.
--Oct.-Nov.-Dec.
The crazies get crazier--North Korean tests nukes--too bad one of them didn't blow up on the launch pad. Chavez gets re-elected in Venezuela keeping at least part of South America under the influence of a power-hungry fool. Saddam Hussein is convicted of mass murder and sentenced to death (surprised?) Bush begins re-staffing his adminstration culminated by Rumsfeld's resignation, finally--only a year+ too late.
A FEW KEY PREDICTIONS ABOUT 2007
--The mid-year recession may not happen--it might just be a slowdown to a lower rate of growth (2%).
That means the Fed will probably leave interest rates alone until or unless either inflation jumps or growth slumps.
--Oil probably stays in the $60 unless some global event disturbs the economic balance (like an Iranian "blow-up?") If oil stays "calm" so will gas prices leaving some money for consumers to spend.
--Housing stays soft, but doesn't collapse as excess home inventory is worked down. Those who speculated are hurt, those who over-borrowed are hurt, but most people muddle with too-big mortgages and no more "easy money" from home equity loans.
--The Big 3 auto companies fall further from their historic glory. GM does best--but it's reputation still hinders it, as does its awful legacy costs It has to stop paying thousands of people for not working--sooner or later, Mullaly starts fixing Ford--painfully, but by doing the right things--and Ford ends up a much smaller company. DaimlerChrysler fixes up Chrysler (again) and looks to sell it to a private equity buyer Toyota and Honda rule, Ghosn's magic at Nissan doesn't work so well at Peugeot. Hyundai and Kia's progress slows and Korean currency goes the wrong way (for them).
--The stock market value keeps growing, although not so fast. Value rules, as large "blue-chips" are favored. Google, eBay and Yahoo, et. al. begin to "return to earth" from stratospheric valuations that were neither warranted nor sustainable.
--Christmas turns out OK in sales, and not OK in profits as promotions to drive volume hurt profits. For years people have asked "who can stop Wal-Mart and Home Depot?" Now we know the answer--Wal-Mart and Home Depot (with an assist from Target and Lowe's). Web retailing will keep growing, but like all things that get big, the growth rate will slow as it gets bigger.
--Somebody, in fact probably several people from each party will start running for President, even though the election is about 22 months away. The question is who? And the bigger question is WHY? Congress will start trying to make its (Democratic party) mark on America. The questions about how and what are posed in the email I received recently that I posted below, it is titled: WHY I FEEL SO MUCH BETTER in 2007. Form your own opinions!
IDEAS, DISCOVERIES, NEW THOUGHTS AND MISCELLANEOUS STUFF I FOUND INTERESTING
--WASH HANDS, SAVE LIVES--DUH--WHY IS THIS SO HARD TO REALIZE?
Wow. What a profound discovery. If medical staff would just wash their hands after (or before) each patient interaction, it could save as many as 40,000 lives each year. Now WHY DON'T THEY DO IT?
PARC-INVENTING IT IS ≠ TO PERFECTING IT--CREATIVITY IS NOT INNOVATION
Many of the breakthrough discoveries and innovations (the mouse and icon/desktop system for computers) were first found at Xerox Corp.s PARC (Palo Alto Research Center), but Xerox didn't commercialize or benefit financially for any of them. Ditto for Philips N.V., the huge Dutch company, whose past is littered with firsts, but who also failed to commercialize them successfully. The message: creativity is different from innovation.
TREND MINING MATTERS-DO IT--LOOK OUTSIDE
If you want to know what's coming, it helps to look around. Obvious? Sure. But too often companies are so internally focused (because they can control internal stuff) that they get ambushed by startups who just take the time to look, ask, and explore what trends seem to be developing. Can anybody spell YouTube?
CHINA'S PEOPLE REVOLT-POLLUTION, SAFETY, ETC.--TROUBLE IS COMING
The Chinese people are being poisoned by their own economic and industrial development and the government doesn't know what to do about it. If the government mandates tighter environmental controls it could cost jobs and slow down growth--which will also be very unpopular. How do you say "Catch 22" in Mandarin?
NO WIN IN IRAQ & THE MIDDLE EAST--LEAVE IT BETTER THAN WE FOUND IT AND GET OUT
I am at odds with the Bush Administration's apparent plan to send more troops to Iraq. ( think it is a big mistake. Years ago, I had an assembly line that was producing too many defects. So, we added more inspectors and quality got worse! Why? The assembly workers took even less responsibility for quality--let the inspectors catch the defects. More US troops are only a Band-Aid on a bleeding wound. Unless the Iraqi take control of their country, and enforce discipline, we can't (and shouldn't) send enough American troops over there to "stabilize it."
These people have fought, hated and killed each other for centuries. A few thousand of our brave young American troops cannot change that. We need to clean up what we can, this year and try to leave it better than we found it. That would be the best "win" we can hope for. But, we do need to swallow our considerable pride and meet, discuss, and perhaps even "negotiate" with those Iraqi neighbors that we abhor...like Iran and Syria. Why? I think the answer is hidden somewhere in the old cliche' "Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer."
WHAT WE NEED IS A NEW KIND OF MILITARY AND MISSION(S)--NOW, NOT LATER
Why do we need tens of thousands of American military scattered about Europe, and especially in Germany? Last time I looked, that war ended about 60 years ago. We need to massively re-configure and re-task our military to "fight different battles" than in the past.
We also need the "bleeding hearts" to realize that there is no such thing as a "fair fight" when the combatants don't observe the same rules. IF the US is to survive as a free nation and a world power, we need to quit fighting fist fights where the other guy has, and can use a gun or a knife. If that bothers the sensitive American psyche, they we need to do it covertly, and not apologize where the ever-present media learns about it and tips off our enemies in the name of freedom of the press. maybe if our enemies knew we are willing to fight them according to their rules (no rules), they'll think twice before they mess with the USA.
CYBER-PIRATES/TERRORISTS ARE OUT THERE--DANGER
Protect your system. Protect your data. My novel, THE SILENCE, is now 4, going on 5 years old, and it is as prophetic as ever. (and still on sale at amazon.com last time I checked). Somebody is going to do what I predicted or something very much like it. If your company or clients don't have a strong security and disaster plan, then it's time they develop and implement one. Just imagine operating for a week with no phones, no computers, no email, no cell phones and no broadcast radio/TV or cable TV...and that is just for a start. It would be a VERY QUIET WEEK.
WOMEN STAY IN SECOND CLASS--UNFORTUNATELY
As long as the major business magazines run features listing the highest ranking women in business, we will know they are still a distinct and unique minority. Women can do the job. Why more of them don't get to the top isn't completely clear, but I suspect it is a combination of history, discrimination (the "old boys club), the fact that they are the ones who must bear children to sustain life on earth, and the fact that they are "wired a bit differently" (which is what makes them able to bear, nurture and raise children better than men).
Women may in fact be more sensitive, more perceptive and more collaborative leaders, but genetics are an insurmountable issue. Remember, for millions of years, men were the hunters and women stayed back at home, keeping the family safe and the home fires burning. No matter that we intellectually know it need not always be that way, social cultures change slowly, and only over decades.
B-SCHOOLS DON'T TEACH BUSINESS--DUH
I don't know exactly why this is either, but perhaps it is because they are run by educators and not business people, and many classes are taught by teachers and not business practitioners. It's sort of like learning to swim by reading a book. It just doesn't prepare you for the first time you jump in the deep end of the pool and get a nose and eyes full of water. The problem is that the business world is changing faster than ever, making the likelihood of B-Schools "catching up" worse, not better.
Suggestions: B-Schools should have active and aggressive curriculum advisory groups made up of current business people. There should also be rosters of "guest lecturers" made up of people who are either currently active in business or have been active within 3-5 years preferably less. Lots of these people either retired early or are looking for jobs, and can be recruited via alumni networks. Will any school lead the way?
BRANDS = PROMISES; KEEP THEM, KEEP CUSTOMERS
As more and more companies switch to private labels, house brands and "no brands" consumers will search for the famiiar, comfortable promise of value and performance offered by a recognizable brand. If the brand is a "trade brand" it may not matter to consumers, but may be a difference maker with the intermediate customers (gate-keeper). If the end user/.consumer makes the buying decision, then brands must pay more attention than ever to understanding what their brand means, what promise it makes, and what relationship it has with those who are loyal to it. Then protect those at all costs.
Often,brands are the only difference--and are enough of a difference to justify a price difference (premium). As the behemoths like Wal-Mart and Home Depot grow so large and in-bred that they delude themselves that they can "do it all"--create the product, the brand, design it, source it, procure it, merchandise and sell it. They can't "do it all" at a world-class level. The only way many of them will learn this is through competitors who do the parts of the entire innovation and value network better. Observe closely and you will see this happen.
MY NEW YEAR GIFT TO YOU: SWITCH TO A MAC:
There are few reasons most people can't or shouldn't switch from PCs to Macs (unless they are hard-core gamers, or are locked in by corporate systems which leave no option. Once you have used the Apple Mac and its iLife suite (iPhoto, iTunes, iDVD, etc.) you'll wonder why you ever used anything else. And the new dual core Macs can run Windows (with all its attendant virus risks, of course) and using a 3rd party software named Parallels a user can switch back and forth from Mac to Windows desktop.
Before I'd tangle with Microsoft's new Vista and its radically redesigned Office 2007 with all of the typical "new software bugs," I'd run to the Apple store and get an iBook and equip it with the Student/Teacher version of Office X. Almost everything else you'll need comes already on the Mac.
Here is a site that gives many tips to those who want to switch. You'll be delighted you did. (The Wall Street Journal's expert, Walter Mossburg, and Business Week's expert Steve Wildstrom have said this too, in print, repeatedly.)
http://www.lifehacker.com/software/mac/hack-attack-a-guide-for-switching-to-a-mac-224674.php
(And I have no financial interest in Apple. I just know what works and life is too short for a computer that doesn't work--simply.)
Finally, shown below are two emails I received recently. One is titled WHY I FEEL SO MUCH BETTER in 2007 and the author is anonymous. The other is titled Made in the USA : Spoiled brats By Craig R. Smith. Perhaps these will leave you wondering what to think, what to conclude, or what I was thinking of when I included them. That is just what I hoped for.
Happy New Year, John
WHY I FEEL SO MUCH BETTER in 2007
The Democrats new promise "A New Direction For America"
o The stock market is at a new all-time high and America's 401K's are back.
A new direction from there means what?
o Unemployment is at 25-year lows.
A new direction from there means what?
o Oil prices are plummeting.
A new direction from there means what?
o Taxes are at 20-year lows.
A new direction from there means what?
o Federal tax revenues are at all-time highs.
A new direction from there means what?
o The Federal deficit is down almost 50%, just as predicted over last year.
A new direction from there means what?
o Home valuations are up 200% over the past 3-5 years.
A new direction from there means what?
o Inflation is in check, hovering at 20 year lows.
A new direction from there means what?
o Not a single terrorist attack on US soil since 9/11/01.
A new direction from there means what?
o Osama bin Laden is living under a rock in a dark cave, having not surfaced in years, if he's alive at all, while 95% of Al Queda's top dogs are either dead or in custody, cooperating with US Intel. A new direction from there means what?
o Several major terrorist attacks already thwarted by US and British Intel, including the recent planned attack involving 10 Jumbo Jets being exploded in mid-air over major US cities in order to celebrate the anniversary of the 9/11/01 attacks.
A new direction from there means what?
Just as President Bush foretold us on a number of occasions, Iraq was to be made "ground zero" for the war on terrorism -- and just as President Bush said they would, terrorist cells from all over the region are arriving from the shadows of their hiding places and flooding into Iraq in order to get their faces blown off by US Marines rather than boarding planes and heading to the United States to wage war on us here.
A new direction from there means what?
Now let me see, do I have this right? I can expect:
o The economy to go south.
o Illegals to go north.
o Taxes to go up.
o Employment to go down.
o Terrorism to come in.
o Tax breaks to go out.
o Social Security to go away.
o Health Care to go the same way gas prices have gone.
But what the heck!
I can gain comfort by knowing that Nancy P, Hillary C, John K, Edward K,
Howard D, Harry R and Obama have worked hard to create a comprehensive
-National Security Plan, -Health Care Plan, -Immigration Reform Plan, -Gay
Rights Plan, -Same Sex Marriage Plan, -Abortion On Demand Plan, -Tolerance of Everyone and Everything Plan, -How to Return all Troops to the U.S. In The Next Six Months Plan, -A Get Tough Plan, (adapted from the French Plan by the same name) and a -How Everyone Can Become as Wealthy as We Are Plan…. whoops, I forgot the -No More Katrina-like Storms Plan.
Now I know why I feel good after the elections. I am going to be able to sleep so much better at nights knowing these dedicated Politicians are thinking of my welfare and me.
Author Anonymous
Made in the USA : Spoiled brats
By Craig R. Smith
November 20, 2006
The other day I was reading Newsweek magazine and came across some poll data I found rather hard to believe. It must be true given the source, right? The same magazine that employs Michael (Qurans in the toilets at Gitmo) Isikoff. Here I promised myself this week I would be nice and I start off in this way.
The Newsweek poll alleges that 67 percent of Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is headed and 69 percent of the country is unhappy with the performance of the president. In essence 2/3s of the citizenry just ain't happy and want a change.
So being the knuckle dragger I am, I starting thinking, ''What we are so unhappy about?''
Is it that we have electricity and running water 24 hours a day, 7 days a week? Is our unhappiness the result of having air conditioning in the summer and heating in the winter? Could it be that 95.4 percent of these unhappy folks have a job? Maybe it is the ability to walk into a grocery store at any time and see more food in moments than Darfur has seen in the last year?
Maybe it is the ability to drive from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean without having to present identification papers as we move through each state? Or possibly the hundreds of clean and safe motels we would find along the way that can provide temporary shelter? I guess having thousands of restaurants with varying cuisine from around the world is just not good enough. Or could it be that when we wreck our car, emergency workers show up and provide services to help all involved. Whether you are rich or poor they treat your wounds and even, if necessary, send a helicopter to take you to the hospital.
Perhaps you are one of the 70 percent of Americans who own a home, you may be upset with knowing that in the unfortunate case of having a fire, a group of trained firefighters will appear in moments and use top notch equipment to extinguish the flames thus saving you, your family and your belongings. Or if, while at home watching one of your many flat screen TVs, a burglar or prowler intrudes; an officer equipped with a gun and a bullet-proof vest will come to defend you and your family against attack or loss. This all in the backdrop of a neighborhood free of bombs or militias raping and pillaging the residents. Neighborhoods where 90 percent of teenagers own cell phones and computers.
How about the complete religious, social and political freedoms we enjoy that are the envy of everyone in the world? Maybe that is what has 67 percent of you folks unhappy.
Fact is, we are the largest group of ungrateful, spoiled brats the world has ever seen. No wonder the world loves the U.S. yet has a great disdain for its citizens. They see us for what we are. The most blessed people in the world who do nothing but complain about what we don't have and what we hate about the country instead of thanking the good Lord we live here.
I know, I know. What about the president who took us into war and has no plan to get us out? The president who has a measly 31 percent approval rating? Is this the same president who guided the nation in the dark days after 9/11? The president that cut taxes to bring an economy out of recession? Could this be the same guy who has been called every name in the book for succeeding in keeping all the spoiled brats safe from terrorist attacks? The commander in chief of an all-volunteer army that is out there defending you and me?
Make no mistake about it. The troops in Iraq and Afghanistan have volunteered to serve, and in many cases have died for your freedom. There is currently no draft in this country. They didn't have to go. They are able to refuse to go and end up with either a ''general'' discharge, an ''other than honorable'' discharge or, worst case scenario, a ''dishonorable'' discharge after a few days in the brig.
So why then the flat out discontentment in the minds of 69 percent of Americans? Say what you want but I blame it on the media. If it bleeds it leads and they specialize in bad news. Everybody will watch a car crash with blood and guts. How many will watch kids selling lemonade at the corner? The media knows this and media outlets are for-profit corporations. They offer what sells. Just ask why they are going to allow a murderer like O.J. Simpson to write a book and do a TV special about how he didn't kill his wife but if he did … insane!
Stop buying the negative venom you are fed everyday by the media. Shut off the TV, burn Newsweek, and use the New York Times for the bottom of your bird cage. Then start being grateful for all we have as a country. There is exponentially more good than bad.
I close with one of my favorite quotes from B.C. Forbes in 1953:
''What have Americans to be thankful for? More than any other people on the earth, we enjoy complete religious freedom, political freedom, social freedom. Our liberties are sacredly safeguarded by the Constitution of the United States, 'the most wonderful work ever struck off at a given time by the brain and purpose of man.' Yes, we Americans of today have been bequeathed a noble heritage. Let us pray that we may hand it down unsullied to our children and theirs.''
I suggest we sit back and count our blessings for all we have. If we don't, what we have will be taken away. Then we will have to explain to future generations why we squandered such blessing and abundance. If we are not careful this generation will be known as the ''greediest and most ungrateful generation.'' A far cry from the proud Americans of the ''greatest generation'' who left us an untarnished legacy.
<http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53028>http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53028
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