THE ENTERPRISE--Six Events Transforming the World--Introduction
We are living in turbulent times. These are truly times unlike all other times past. Change is greater and more rapid. The rate of change, largely due to technology causes changes in a year or two that might previously have taken a decade to unfold. Whether you are a business person, or just a concerned citizen of the world, recognizing the underlying changes, events and trends that are shaping these times. Another characteristic of these times is that they are extraordinarily complex-and that complexity either works for us or against us. The choice is ours.
Thanks to an old friend and the continuing wonder of email, I recently received a paper written by Herbert Meyer that outlined several “transformations.” Herb Meyer has a distinguished record, having served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council, where he managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret projections for the President and his national security advisers. His perspectives are derived from a broad and deep understanding of global issues.
I want to share excerpts from some of them in these editions of THE ENTERPRISE. Along with pieces of Meyer's material, I will fold in with my own perspective and observations, which may not be as profound as Meyer's, but will be derived from my 40+ year career in business, most recently as an observer as well as a participant.
Since these Six Events represent a huge topic, it will take far more than a single issue of THE ENTERPRISE to cover it. In this issue, I will outline the six large issues in general, with subheads that fit under them. In future editions, I'll expand on each of the topics, in hopes that it will stimulate thought and reflection on the part of everyone who reads it. I also hope, that in some small way, detailing these “events” will better prepare all of us for the consequences they bring with them. Without further introduction, here are the Six Events Transforming Our World as we enter the year 2007.
1. Shifting Demographics of Civilization
Demography is destiny. Absent famine, war or pestilence, those who are born, will get older as they live and then die. The consequences of this certainty are numerous: Aging populations of US, Europe, Japan; Negative population growth in these countries/continents; Population explosions in some of then less developed countries; Male-Female gender imbalance in China; Disease, famine and genocide in Africa; and more.
2. The Emergence of China & India
Three billion consumers and workers; Demand for resources; Sources of Innovation; Geo-political; Social and military power grows. Two global powers emerging differently, and at different rates, but the combination of which will comprise almost half of the earth's population, and hence, have a huge impact on all other nations.
3. Globalization Reconfigures the Planet
Parity grows; Latent capacity remains; Technology levels the playing field; The earth is not “Flat” but it has some flat spots amidst rugged terrain; Social and political issues complicate matters immensely. The ability to send ideas, concepts, knowledge and skills around the globe in seconds, minutes, or hours has leveled many of the playing fields, and made it more important than ever to recognize which are, and which are not “level.” Free trade is not necessarily “fair trade” either, and this has huge consequences.
4. Restructuring of American Business
Large companies become smaller or “hollower;” Merger mania consolidates every kind of business; Small business formation explodes, unrecognized; Fracturing and reconstruction of industries and leaders via outsourcing. The nagging question that haunts Americans is “what will we make in America during the coming decades, and what does 'make' mean? And further to that end, what will we do that creates enough value to sustain our extraordinary standard of living.
5. The War in Iraq & Growing Middle-Eastern Turmoil
War in Iraq, Hezbollah/Lebanon-Israel conflict, Iranian nuclear ambitions, Afghanistan/Taliban conflict, Pakistani ambivalence toward US. What Centuries have failed to change cannot be changed in a few short years by military might or political maneuvering. Cultures in other parts of the world have changed-but over decades or centuries. Will the Islamic culture also do so-or not?
6. The Failures of Leadership in the US Government & Parts of Industry
Weak and/or power hungry political leaders; a mixed assortment of flawed candidates; past failures of leadership-both corporate and government; the leadership void with little incentive for filling it. Few problems are so vexing as a lack of leadership. The only one worse is bad leadership, since it is contagious. What are we to do to attract truly great talents and leaders into our governing bodies, when the mere thought of it entails being stripped bare by a voracious and tireless media scrutiny?
As you can see, this is an ambitious list. It is, however, one that is compelling in its urgency and critical in its need. There are so few reliable sources of information, and so many questionable sources of information, it is difficult to form opinions and positions based on facts and hard information. This means that unmanaged opinions can easily rule any dialogue-this one included.
Much of the data I cite is from secondary sources that I believe to be reliable, but I must include that disclaimer. I think the conclusions are still the same, even if the data points are off by a bit. We are at a pivotal point in history. How we behave, who we elect to lead us and how well informed and intelligent citizens impose their views on the many who are either malleable or apathetic, can truly change the shape of our world for decades to come.
Read, think, agree, disagree, but most of all, form a position upon which your actions will be based. Then do something positive to bring about change. Our lives and those of our children and grandchildren depend on it.
Best, John
THE
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