THE ENTERPRISE
SLOWLY BUT SURELY--BUT TOO SLOWLY
Here we are 6+ years into the Bush presidency. It took him a few years and a couple of tries to remove and replace his poor choices for economic advisers, but in Treasury Sec'y Paulsen, he finally got a good one. It took longer to replace Defense Sec'y Rumsfeld with Gates (should have been done after Bush's first term and Rumsfeld's mistakes--and unpopularity--were SO obvious). George Tenet's departure at the CIA was way overdue. Now someone has to rebuild our nation's leading Intel gathering organization--and fast. Now Wolfowitz is gone too (Too bad the World Bank isn't going with him--it has outlived its usefulness.).
Att'y. Gen. Gonzales will be next--just too much "smoke" in his misadventures for there to be no "fire." Karl Rove should be on the target list as he is a "negative attractor," but he isn't. V. P. Dick Cheney has marginalized himself, and only Condoleeza Rice remains with any credibility--and that is waning.
As for President George W. Bush's greatest strength--his courage of his convictions; it has become his greatest weakness: a determined and insular stubbornness worsened misplaced loyalties. What a sad state of affairs.
A SAD STATE OF AFFAIRS--AND THE NEXT ELECTION IS ONLY 18 MONTHS AWAY.
When an incumbent president is a campaign liability, it speaks volumes about how bad things have become. Hopefully, the American public will see the failings and weaknesses of the candidates offered by the Democrats and not fall for "anyone else is better" campaigning. The choice of our next President is so important, that the protracted "campaign" may actually be a good thing.
Hillary is, well, Hillary--damaged goods, strident, uninspiring, polarizing, ... and somehow we have to break the reign of the "Bushes and Clintons" which will be at 20 years soon. Obama is still unproven, except as an articulate rookie with NO proven leadership skills, and few policy positions on anything except to take us back to the days of FDR. John Edwards--who is he kidding--hypocrisy is thy name, Mr. $400 haircut, pretending to be the "defender of the poor." Al Gore--who is he kidding--he flies around in his private plane, to and from his huge home, using energy like crazy (but he is buying "carbon credits" to offset this?)
(I want to try that with Pizza, Krispy Kreme donuts and Oreos with milk--if only I can find someone who likes rice cakes and celery to swap calorie credits with me so I can eat what I like and not get fatter!!!)
THE NON-CANDIDATES
Newt Gingrich (Very smart and experienced, but not officially running yet, and probably tough to elect) or Fred Thompson (Somewhat known for his acting, a good speaker, inspiring, articulate, but oddly lacking in "fire and passion"--and still not a declared candidate either)--both would be better choices than Hillary, Obama, Gore or Edwards. (Late breaking news: NYC Mayor Bloomberg is very rich, long shot; a wild card, but one that I have not yet studied.)
BETTER OPTIONS--RUDY IS ONE, BUT BETTER YET: MITT ROMNEY
Rudy Guiliani is a proven leader (one of few running) who "did it" under very difficult conditions (in NYC & after 9/11), and would do many of the right things. His personal life is an issue, and unfortunately in today's target rich, media circus, it will be a problem. Divorces, affairs and estranged children are hard to "explain away." John McCain is a good man, but he is simply too old and too "worn" to serve 8 years in such a demanding job--but his strength of will and convictions are badly needed in the Senate. The "seven dwarfs" are all probably capable people, but none of them has the stature and inspirational leadership persona needed. In a different setting, Mike Huckabee might be a stronger "dark horse" but not this time around.
At this early date, until I learn something changes my opinion, I lean toward Mitt Romney. I can easily imagine him as our President. He seems to be bright, articulate, measured, and a man of character AND competence. Romney's Mormonism doesn't bother me, because I know too many Mormons who are fine people and are nothing like the "extremists" that some fear. Romney comes from a distinguished family, is a proven civic leader (turned the troubled Salt Lake City Olympics into a big success) a strong, electable government leader (a Republican who was elected Gov. of a strongly Democratic state--Massachusetts), a successful businessman (founder of the very successful Bain Capital) and a strong family man. Why he hasn't gained more traction in the polls, I am not sure. Maybe not enough people know enough about him.
From what I know now, Mitt's the best of all the candidates, regardless of party affiliation.
I suggest you click here and check him out: http://www.mittromney.com.
I think you'll be favorably impressed.
A SOFT PATCH, NOT A RECESSION--UNDERSTAND THE FACTORS
I hear footsteps--of people running scared, prematurely. The housing slump has hurt, but may be at or near the bottom. Lower defense spending was actually a factor in holding down the 1Q GDP. Business is cautious in investing, as it should be right now. Many companies, especially large retailers are cutting inventories (maybe too much!) which ripples through their suppliers. BUT, the 1Q Consumer Spending component (70%) of the GDP was up 3.8% and unemployment is still 4.5%, while the Institute for Supply Management's April index went UP to 54.7 (from 50.9 in March), and this is real business people "voting" what their plans are. Sure, we are going to see a "soft spot" from now into the 4Q, but at 1.3% overall GDP growth, we are still not in recession, and probably won't be anytime soon. What to do now? Hire the best, cut the fat and get rid of the worst performers and any "fat." Watch spending carefully, but don't sacrifice the long term because of a "soft patch."
BEWARE THE NEW IMMIGRATION BILL
I have not researched the content, but any bill that was compiled secretively, and is a product of Ted Kennedy's strong input, is probably worthy of scrutiny--and likely one I won't agree with. "Amnesty" per se is not the problem. It is the consent that it's OK to start your life in the US with a criminal act--illegal entry. Dennis Miller says it nicely, "We just want immigrants to 'sign the guest book" on their way into our country, and then act like responsible people once they are here." This bill needs some hard analysis, and probably should NOT be passed in its current form.
A NEW, REVOLUTIONARY TECHNOLOGY AND AN UNNERVING FUTURE OUTLOOK
Here is the latest and greatest pair of concepts, about which I will write more as time goes on.
---The first is the one is a concept developed and explored by Ray Kurzweil, a brilliant inventor, in his two books, THE AGE OF SPIRITUAL MACHINES and THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR. It is the "curve" of exponential growth in technology and specifically in computer intelligence and computing capability. Kurweil postulates that computer intelligence will exceed human intelligence within the next two decades. This has huge and profound implications for all of humanity.
---The second concept is Wireless Mesh Networks. This approach has the potential to make super high speed bandwidth available to huge numbers of people at very low cost. It uses very small (basketball sized), solid state, multi-channel access points (APs) spaced rather closely together (in Colleyville, TX where there is one of the first commercial installations, 12 APs cover 5 square miles.) There is a lot more detail that I don't have space here to describe, but just imagine high speed Wi-Fi coverage "everywhere," at minimal or no premium cost.
Imagine what these two in combination could lead to. Everybody, connected to everybody else, and to everything, everywhere, but with computers starting to contend with humans for "who (or what) is in charge!" (Deedle-deedle-deedle)
A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY?
A closing thought about the War in Iraq. Polls tell us that the majority of Americans are "tired of it, don't think it's worth any more spending or sacrifices, etc." in other words--against it. OK, I get that. The question is WHY they think that? Most Americans couldn't find Iraq on a map if their life depended on it--(and their freedom might.) Many of those polled can't name the Vice President of the US, the Secretary of State or Defense, or the General leading the US war efforts. In a word, the majority of the population is simply UN-INFORMED.
The public in general is against the war because everything they know and are being told about it informs them that they should be against it. Sure, there are smart, informed people who think the premise of the war was flawed, and its execution was awful--and they are mostly right. BUT, the major media coverage on Iraq is almost all negative, whether it is true or not, balanced or not. (An old newspaper saying, "If it bleeds, it leads.") If the news from Iraq (and it IS A MESS) it reflects badly on the Bush administration and its actions--the media will lead with it, and that is what "informs" most Americans.
What are the American people supposed to think? Nobody sponsors and runs a feature: "The good news in Iraq today." Nobody. If there was as much negative publicity about the incidence of violent crime and murders in American cities as on the Iraq war, and if the public was led to believe that forming vigilante groups would improve law enforcement and reduce that crime and loss of life, what do you think would happen?
Bottom line: you reap what you sow. People see what they already believe--they do NOT believe what they see--studies have proven this. Blanket any population with skewed information, and add a story that is ugly to begin with, and they will want out--at any cost. But that is what leaders are for.
Leaders must understand and act based on reality. When our leaders (including the President) are believed to be (or portrayed as) doing that, public opinion will shift back to their support. Until then, the leadership void is a problem. Nature abhors a void and something fills that void. In this case it is un-informed, mis-informed, poorly informed and occasionally, a well-informed opinion. And you know what they say opinions are like--(and everybody has one). I guess this is mine!
Best, John
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