THE ENTERPRISE-- Bad Information = Bad Decisions
Business leaders suffer mightily from a problem of getting filtered or distorted information from subordinates, and then making what seemed like wise decisions based on flawed information. The results range from ludicrous to disastrous outcomes. There seems to be no end to the occasions I see and hear about where bad information or outright misinformation leads to wrong conclusions and bad decisions. The problem is that misinformation repeated enough times and reprinted or featured by enough forms of media can become "common knowledge" or even a "consensus."
AL GORE'S GLOBAL EXAGGERATION AWARD
For Al Gore to receive a Nobel Peace prize is ludicrous from the outset. His award for making a movie that is a gross exaggeration—misrepresenting itself as factually accurate—is equally wrong. The only saving grace is that we are fouling our planet unnecessarily, so we should be taking corrective actions.
The so-called "consensus:" about the cause of global warming is the result a media blitz, a frenzy of fear-drive prophecies and a paucity of hard, reliable scientific evidence.
Whether and how much of global warming is attributable to human effects, and how much is due to normal cyclical planetary warming and cooling, is still a debatable issue--but not after the preordained conclusion has been written, reprinted, repeated and celebrity-endorsed ad infinitum. Whatever you believe, believe this: Al Gore may have an Emmy, an Oscar and now a Nobel--but he still never saw a fact he couldn't distort, change or ignore when it didn't serve his purpose.
ETHANOL, BOON OR BOONDOGGLE--VESTED INTEREST MISINFORMATION
The biggest "alternative energy myth" is that ethanol improves anything except air quality when used as a gasoline additive. Corn-based ethanol is an even worse mistake driven by self-interest of a few politicians, a group of corn farming interests, and the desire to "grasp at straws." Corn ethanol has a terrible energy balance of 1.3 to 1 (output yield vs. input to create it). Gasoline has a 5:1 energy balance, but it admittedly draws on oil that we (the USA) choose to import instead of drill for and discover (offshore, ANWR, oil shale, etc.) and convert.
Sugar cane ethanol has an 8:1 energy balance, which is much better. But it still has the drawback of all ethanol as fuel for internal combustion engines. Ethanol absorbs water and the resultant corrosion ruins the engine--unless it is blended with 80-90% gasoline. And if all the USA's ethanol production were used as fuel, it would replace less than 10% of our daily oil/gas consumption. Worse yet, ethanol, by many measures may actually consume more energy to create and transport it than it actually saves.
Meanwhile, using so much corn to make a lousy fuel raises the price of everything corn is good for--food, corn syrup (sweetener), corn starch, livestock feed, etc. Plus, burning ethanol actually produces much more lung-damaging ozone than gasoline, and farmers growing the corn for ethanol use nitrogen based fertilizers which contaminate streams and rivers. So, in conclusion, ethanol is another case of gross misinformation, leading to bad decisions and wrong actions.
A lot of this was known as far back as Henry Ford's day and the rest of it is available from a huge number of sources--if only someone cared about finding the right solution.
OTHER CASES OF BAD INFORMATION = BAD DECISIONS
The Duke Lacrosse team scandal was a classic case of misinformation leading to a gross miscarriage of justice until the truth came out. The Iraq war was, in many people's opinion, based on flawed intelligence furnished by the CIA and enhanced by "hawks" in the Bush administration. Perhaps Saddam's own misinformation campaign about how his WMD programs and progress led to his own demise. He convinced virtually everyone that he had WMD--the UN, Democratic and Republican members of Congress, the CIA, etc. etc.
HILLARY IS AL GORE'S EQUAL ...OR BETTER...IN ONE RESPECT AT LEAST
Hillary Clinton's superbly orchestrated campaign has completely obscured the fact that she is perhaps as great a prevaricator as Al Gore was, but she is slicker at concealing it behind subterfuge and counter-attack. The proof of her past lying is overwhelming: Whitewater records that suddenly "just appeared on her desk" after being unavailable and unfindable for months, her "Travelgate" firings story, her blatant public blindness to Bill's transgressions (Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers and many, many more).
But now about half of the American public say (in polls) that they prefer her to be the next President. Perhaps so many have accused George Bush of being a liar, they now feel that being an accomplished liar is a pre-qualification for his successor. No matter the excuses, the fact remains that Hillary Clinton is a documented liar--multiple times over. (And so was Al Gore, Nobel prize or not.) Once a person has been proven a liar, how can you believe anything they say?
AHA!— I HAVE THE VERACITY TEST SOLUTION!—THE HAIR COLOR DISCLOSURE TEST
If you want a clue to a most obvious deception, what color do you suppose the hair of a 60 year-old woman would be. Not yellow-blonde (like Hillary's), I'm betting. Of course, I doubt that Nancy Pelosi's brunette hair is her true hair color either. How about John Edwards? NO gray hair? Wanna bet? I know Rudy and Fred are not "do-ing" their hair--they barely have any. John McCain's is pure white and Barack Obama's is pure black--OK I can buy those two. Mitt Romney--not sure--is there enough gray hair showing? Deception comes in many forms--small and large.
How about FULL PHOTO DISCLOSURE of actual hair color, so we can see what these candidates really look like and how old they really look.
THE LAST TEST—GUESS WHO SAID THESE THINGS? (REAL LIFE QUOTES!)
Read and think about each one:
(1)"We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good!"
(2) "It's time for a new beginning, for an end to government of the few, by the few, and for the few...... And to replace it with shared responsibility for shared prosperity."
(3) "(We) ....can't just let business as usual go on, and that means something has to be taken away from some people."
(4) "We have to build a political consensus and that requires people to give up a little bit of their own turf in order to create this common ground."
(5) "I certainly think the free-market has failed."
(6) "I think it's time to send a clear message to what has become the most profitable sector in (the) entire economy that they are being watched."
Now you might think these were the famous words of the father of communism, Karl Marx...........and you would be on the right track in thinking so..... but you would be wrong......SEE ANSWERS AT THE END OF THE ENTERPRISE
AYN RAND'S LEGENDARY BOOK--"ATLAS SHRUGGED"
It may be 50 years old, but it is scarily prophetic. If you have not read it, you should. It is long--1000pp. but well worth it, whether you agree principles and with the story it tells or not. (Where is John Galt?)
RECESSIONS, BAD FACTS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECIES
Are we headed for a recession. If enough bad information is used, we can convince ourselves that we are. How? I wrote this in 1998 and have reprinted it at least 3 or 4 times since them. It's worth reading again.
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Are Hard Times Coming?
© John L. Mariotti 1998
The current business buzz is all about which way the economy is going in the next year or so. No one can predict it accurately because there are too many complex factors, not the least of which is how businesses will react to events and decide whether to focus on problems or opportunities. Many years ago I read a short story that describes how this kind of situation can unfold, and this little story has stuck in my mind ever since. I would like to share it with you, in hopes it will be as appropriate now as it was years ago when I read it. I can't recall where it came from so I give thanks to the unknown author.
The scene is bistro on the Champs E'lysee's in Paris. A young painter goes into the bistro and asks the waiter for a bottle of their finest wine to celebrate his greatest ever commission for a paining to go in the home of a rich businessman. As he awaits the wine, he notices a paper lying on a chair at the next table. The headline reads, "Hard Times Are Coming--All will suffer from downturn"
Alarmed, he calls the waiter and asks if he has opened the wine. Finding that the expensive wine is unopened, the artist asks the waiter to bring him a more modestly priced wine instead. The waiter asks why he wishes to change--is he less excited about his good fortune? "No," replies the painters, "but see that headline," "Hard Times Are Coming--All will suffer from downturn" I think I should be cautious.
The waiter goes to exchange the wine and meets the owner of the bistro who asks why he is not opening the fine wine. The waiter relates the painter's story and tells the bistro owner of the headline "Hard Times Are Coming--All will suffer from downturn" The bistro owner continues to his office and as he does, he ponders the order he just placed for his bistro. He has ordered the finest wines and cheeses, and all the trimmings--in a small part fueled by the latest order of fine wine by the painter.
He picks up the phone and calls his supplier, asking to reduce the size and downscale the assortment of food and wine for his next order. The supplier inquires why and the bistro owner cites the headline "Hard Times Are Coming--All will suffer from downturn" The supplier, himself a small businessman, calls his largest supplier, and cuts his future orders orders "just in case." When the large company who supplies him sees the order from one of his best customers reduced sharply, the owner is notified. The owner's concern is great, especially when is manager relates the reason---the headline "Hard Times Are Coming--All will suffer from downturn"
The owner of the large business decides he should cut down on his extravagances and calls the young painter canceling the painting he commissioned! The young painter returns to the bistro that evening, and asks for a bottle of their cheapest wine. The waiter is surprised to hear that he has lost the commission, and wants to drown his sorrows. As he awaits his bottle of cheap wine, he reaches over and picks up the newspaper still lying on the chair next to him. The date on it is two years ago.
Many times we make self-fulfilling prophecies like this little story. That may be what happens in the economy next year--or it may not. The decision whether to attack in hopes of gaining market position or defend in fear of a downturn is a pivotal one. Perhaps more than anything else it depends on how well financed and managed a business has been just before the decision point. It also depends on the outlook of the management that makes such decisions. Down turns are great times to gain market share and position, while competitors who are defending blame their losses on a down market, the Asian crisis, and a host of other excuses.
Which will you do for your business--which decision will your management team make? Have you prepared well to capitalize on this kind of change? Are your finances in order, overheads under control, inventories in line? I hope so, because with the right preparations, great gains are possible. Without them "Hard Times Are Coming--All will suffer from downturn".
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Maybe hard times are coming--and maybe not. One prediction I will make is that IF we do not convince ourselves a recession is coming, and then choose Hillary Clinton, she'll give us that recession--probably with the help of a Democratic Congress.
It would be wise to think about who to choose for the next President based on whether we want a liar--or an honest leader with integrity. Both parties have one (or more) of those running, so I am not being partisan in this observation. Think about it. Your future and that of all Americans depends on it.
Best, John
PS: MY latest book, THE COMPLEXITY CRISIS is going to the printers right now. It's COMING OUT IN EARLY 2008. Preordering is available on both Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.com. I am working on the marketing plan and launch plan right now. I'd appreciate a "heads up" from anyone with good publicity leads? Conferences or groups that might want a speaker with a new book just outin early 2008? Other ideas?
These "QUOTES", or pearls of socialist/Marxist wisdom are from non other than our very own,home-grown Marxist......... Hillary Clinton!........
Comments made on:
(1) 6/29/04
(2) 5/29/07
(3) 6/4/07
(4) 6/4/07
(5) 6/4/07
(6) 9/2/05
Be afraid, Be very afraid!! She will take your money (in taxes) and give it to whoever she thinks will be the most beneficial to her and her party
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