THE ENTERPRISE--ANOTHER YEAR ENDS--WITH A SHOCKING ASSASSINATION
I've been asked what I think about the repercussions of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. I am not an expert, so I will call on the experts at Stratfor and share their first take on the situation.
PAKISTAN: THE FALLOUT AFTER BHUTTO’S KILLING (Excerpts from a review ©Stratfor.com)
The killing of top Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto triggered a storm of political unrest. Only time and military intervention will calm.. For now, Pakistan People’s Party activists are rioting against government and rival parties in Punjab and Sindh provinces . Soon this violence will lead to clashes between various groups. The situation already is getting out of hand for the police, and it is likely that military forces will be needed to quell the disturbances.
Given that the country was already going through a period of significant instability and the unprecedented jihadist insurgency, questions remain about whether the army will be able to gain control of the situation quickly. Bhutto’s death creates a major vacuum in Pakistan, and will make it difficult to stabilize the situation since her Pakistan People's Party--the only true national-level party--is going to weaken without her. This will lead to a fragmentation of the political landscape and by extension the country.
It is highly unlikely that elections can be held any time soon, and the imposition of martial law is also a distinct possibility. Meanwhile, the polarization of the country -- Islamist forces are struggling with mainstream ones and the pro-democracy forces are competing with authoritarianism -- further complicates matters. Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani could step in and take charge, but he will have to carefully work with an array of civilian forces because direct military rule could worsen the situation. There is the potential for Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, to see Bhutto's death as an opportunity, to become a new military junta.
Either way, a cooling-off period will be required before stabilization can be achieved.
Stratfor has superb coverage of such events and their nuances. For more info go to http://www.stratfor.com.
This could alter the dynamics of the US Presidential races too!
WHAT'S HAPPENED--GOOD OR BAD?
The change in political control of Congress did little--no, make that nothing--to improve our country. When can you remember a more lame set of leaders than Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. This reflects the problem of "incumbentitis" in the House and the negative power of the "Good Old Boys (and Girls) club in the Senate. Incumbents get reelected to the House far too often because they are the easy, familiar choice, and not because they are the better choice. In the Senate, tenure is king. The longer you've been around, the more deals you've made, the more power you can wield on important committees--the more likely you'll have power that either corrupts or "inepts" (if that's proper English) the legislator.
From RealClearPolitics.com--info as of 12/19/07:
President Bush job approval 35%; Congress job approval 25%.
What does this say about our government?
TERM LIMITS--IT'S TIME
I have no idea what member of Congress will have the nerve to bring it up, but it's time to get rid of octogenarian legislators who've never done anything else in their adult life. Our Congress was intended to be made up of citizens who have lived, worked and existed outside the "Beltway." It's been corrupted by politics and power and special interest money. Here's the deal. 12 consecutive years is enough time to really do a job well. That's 6 terms for a Congressman, and 2 terms for a Senator. A total time in Congress of 18 years would permit a Representative to serve 3 terms and then be elected a Senator and serve two terms. Now, who, in Congress has the nerve to propose this? Or would one of the Presidential candidates like to step up? After this one, they can take on Social Security and Medicare entitlements, which will then be a piece of cake.
THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES--ALMOST HERE
I don't have a clue who's going to win. The one, almost inescapable conclusion, is that people are tired of hearing the candidates spew "positions" and want "hope." Look at the two who are surging: Barack Obama, who is seemingly a good man, with little experience at anything except writing and speaking well--perhaps that is enough if he'd surround himself with talented staff representing a wide range of policy positions. It worked for an actor named Reagan. Hillary's true nature and flaws are being exposed more and more each week. Edwards is just hanging on.
On the other side, Mike Huckabee's direct, honest and in your face religious positions have raised the question of how much religious beliefs enter into this thing called politics. Huckabee may be coming on strong, but the faith stuff backfired for Bush. Is there more...or less...to Huckabee than meets the eye? Or both? I still think Mitt Romney's the most qualified candidate (but eeek...he's a Mormon? So what? What are all the others? One religion or another--or none?) But Romney is coming under pressure for his shifting positions in the past. This, along with Huckabee's surge, could torpedo Romney's bid. Rudy Guiiani's lead is slipping under pressure from 3 fronts. He'd be my pick to go head to head with Russia's Putin--but Rudy has a lot of skeletons in his closet--and he rubs a lot of people the wrong way. Fred Thompson should go back to "Law and Order" where he was comfortable and good.
And, ah yes, the hero--John McCain--is rebounding a bit. He has suffered more and given more of this life for his country than most of the other candidates added together. McCain deserves more than a little respect. Does he deserve to be President? Maybe--but we'd better pay closer attention to the VP choice than normal. One of McCain's lines during the (silly) "debates" is still ringing in my ears. He said, "I'd rather lose an election, than lose a war." That is the kind of character, courage and fortitude that could lead our country back where it belongs. Maybe those debates do reveal character!
Soon the chips will start to fall in place. Until then we can only watch.
OUR UNIVERSITIES ARE ALSO CORRUPTED--BUT DIFFERENTLY
I know some brilliant professors. Some are teachers, some are researchers, and some do consulting as well. These make up, at most 20-25% of the population in our Colleges and Universities. As in all things, these institutions need to be pruned and changed. The teaching model was crafted centuries ago when the "wise man" would hold forth in the classroom to a widely varied (but much smaller) group youthful students. Now our universities are poisoned with rampant liberal politics being postulated and the "absolute truth" when it is largely misguided poppycock, being purveyed by people who could not make a positive impact in other parts of society.
It's time to change the college level educational model. A few places it is happening, but not widely enough. The power of communications technology now allows education to be customized and tailored to the level of students--sorry but all students, like all professors do not come equally qualified. Sort them out and teach them at their level--and keep the political commentary and discourse limited to pass-fail (for showing up) courses that are offered with a disclaimer: the opinions of the professor in this class are his/her own, and may bear no resemblance to the real world; and they can be hazardous to your physical and economic well-being.
FINALLY HIGHER CAFE LIMITS--JUST A START--FIND MORE, USE LESS, ETC.
Finally Congress has passed CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) requirements more in tune with the needs of our energy stressed 21st century. But this is just a tiny step. We also need cleaner power sources for electricity (it's spelled nuclear--no, not nucular, Pres. Bush--NUCLEAR). Corn ethanol is a politician-lobbyist boondoggle. Stop it, and consider ethanol sources that have a positive energy balance, instead of raising the cost of food and other products made from corn. And it's time to become realistic about the wasteland called the Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve. Drill for oil up there. Do it wisely, but do it NOW. Ditto offshore drilling. But conservation via higher fuel prices, higher fuel taxes, etc. is also needed.
HOLY COW! A STINKY TOPIC, FOR SURE.
The last fix is harder. We have to stop cows from farting and pooping. Methane from cattle is a major source of greenhouse gases. I suggest we delegate that one to Nobel Prize winner Al Gore. His expertise on slinging BULLS--T should give him an experience advantage to solve the COW-FARTING problem. Then we could award him the No-Bull Feces prize.
IRAQ? THE FORGOTTEN STORY
As soon as the conflict in Iraq was no longer good for Bush-bashing, the liberal media lost interest. After all, we all know that "good news" is not good for news; it takes "bad news" to really juice up a news program. Or maybe a week's worth the Spears' family escapades, narrated by Lindsay Lohan and Paris Hilton. They could call it "The Young and the Brainless." Iraq is far from resolved, but the progress is encouraging. Neither is the Irael-Palestine conflict. Iran is not over either--not by a long shot (pun not intended). Ahmadenijad is still a power hungry little despot. (wait, was that Putin I meant to say? No this is Iran's version.) North Korea's Beloved Leader Kim Jong Il is now chilling out a bit, in return for food and money. He has all the luxury cars he needs--for now--but he'll be baaack, crazy as ever.
DID THE GRINCH STEAL CHRISTMAS? YEP!
If my meager shopping expeditions are any indication, this Christmas flamed out after Black Friday's surge. November's numbers looked OK because there was an extra shopping week after Thanksgiving. Decembers' numbers will be weak. Retail profits will be worse. The good retailers will suffer too--even Target. The weak ones, may start the process of dying (Sears/Kmart which in Eddie Lampert's case means "sell more retail property" because you are losing money on retailing operations.) Eddie, can anybody there spell NEGATIVE COMP STORE numbers as far back and forward as you can see? A strong last week before Christmas can't save the season--and sure won't save the profits as discounts were rampant. Retailers WILL sell down inventory in Jan., further dampening suppliers' sales. 2008 is shaping up to be a tough year. "Batten down the hatches, boys."
SCARY THOUGHTS TO START OFF THE NEW YEAR
China is our banker. The US owes China billions. China is our manufacturer for low cost, and now (in many cases) good quality products (Like Japan of 25 years ago?). China is now developing the ability to launch space missions, and missiles that can shoot down satellites in orbit (where do you think we get a lot of our foreign intel--satellite imagery).
China is slowly migrating away from Communism to capitalism. China is growing at 9+% per year in GDP and has a positive balance of trade and huge cash reserves. China is now encountering two scourges of developed countries--shortages of quality labor and problems of environmental pollution. Do you think China is the US' friend? Ally? Not for a minute. China is out for China. The US has supported and defended Taiwan, which irritates China greatly, since it considers Taiwan to an illegitimate, rogue province that "escaped from China decades ago."
Europe is becoming Eurabia. Terrorists in the UK--not a few--whole neighborhoods of them. Rioters in France--"youths" who are predominantly Muslim--and in France, the "immigrant" Muslims will soon be in the majority of the population under age 30. In many parts of Northern Europe, the most popular boy's name is Mohammed.
And amidst all this, our Presidential candidates are bickering over whose sex, race or religion makes them more or less suited to serve.
Maybe we should focus on LEADERSHIP in the candidates. Here are my words from p. 211 of THE COMPLEXITY CRISIS describing the role of a leader:
--To create a clear understanding of, and healthy dissatisfaction with the current reality.
--To build a shared vision of a new, better reality as a goal.
--To create an environment in which people are motivated to move from the former to the latter.
WHO AMONG THE CANDIDATES CAN BEST DO THAT?
(Perhaps John McCain after all--even at age 72? Or will it be Barack Obama? Or Mike Huckabee? Or--ugh--Hillary?)
That's it for 2007--it's over. No replays; no do-overs. Now it is up to us--right--you and me, to make 2008 better. How? I only know some of the answers to that, and I'll publish them right here every week. To start with, I'll borrow one from Matthew Kelly's advice: DO THE NEXT RIGHT THING!
See you in the future.
Happy New Year (we hope)
John
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