THE ENTERPRISE...Mistakes, risks and complexity...
NEW LOOKS--NEW BOOKS--(THE COMPLEXITY CRISIS)
If you haven't been to my web site lately, please click on it and go take a look. http://www.mariotti.net is the address, although if you use http://www.thecomplexitycrisis.com you'll get there too. Perhaps you read THE ENTERPRISE in the direct email version I send out each week. Did you realize that past editions are posted to a blog--yes, I confess, I am a blogger now!) (If you wonder why I keep repeating the term complexity in what I write, it is self-serving. To register on the first page of searches, this term needs to become associated with my web site and blog...that is the way things are these days.)
ANOTHER FIELD CRIPPLED BY COMPLEXITY
A friend was kind enough to send me this "heads up" on yet another area where complexity is crippling companies and where some kind of significant change has to occur.
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From an article by Max Kalehoff (my emphasis added)
"As we enter the inevitable clichéd wasteland of year-end reflections and New Year's predictions, I can't help but conclude that 2007 was the year of complexity for online advertising. Nothing else stands so strong. From new online ad formats, splintering media sources, devices, intermediaries, distribution and targeting platforms, it's getting to be a pretty darn complicated ecosystem to get your head around -- especially if you're an advertiser.
... this complexity epidemic has spread to virtually every corner of online advertising -- not just search. The result is a darkening cloud of frustration, inefficiencies and skepticism building among many marketers small and large, despite undisputed benefits and unprecedented ROI. I'm not suggesting all the great new advertising technologies and capabilities aren't wonderful and exciting, but the blunt, underlying pain of convolution is nearing its threshold. Marketers don't need any more features, options, solutions or clutter. What they need is relief and clarity.
It is for that reason that I'll go out on a limb and suggest that 2008 will be the year where complexity gone amuck will drive some of the most important innovations in online advertising."
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TERRORISM RISKS ARE TOO NUMEROUS TO COUNT & DHS IS NOT HELPING
FROM STRATFOR.COM: "An explosion and fire on the Enbridge pipeline system Nov. 28 halted nearly a fifth of U.S. crude imports, leading U.S. crude futures to rise more than $4, Reuters reported. The explosion occurred three miles southeast of an oil terminal at Clearbrook, Minn. All four Enbridge pipelines in the vicinity were immediately shut down and isolated. " This was just an accident. Imagine if it wasn't. We are vulnerable to terrorists in so many places, that only constant vigilance by all Americans can be enough watrchfulness. And the Department of Homeland Security? Forget it. It is now such a massive bureaucracy that it DEFINES A WHOLE NEW LEVEL OF COMPLEXITY-INDUCED ineffectiveness.
WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE, DO WE NEED ENEMIES?
China refused to give our aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk entry to Hong Kong over the Thanksgiving weekend. It was not a misunderstanding, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said. "Reports that Foreign Minister Yang [Jiechi] said that it was a misunderstanding do not accord with the facts," the spokesman told a news conference. At least they told it the way it was. The Chinese are looking out for China--anyone who thinks otherwise, simply isn't paying attention!
NOT THAT RIGHT SIDE...THE OTHER "RIGHT" SIDE
There is a phrase, "you don't have to be a brain surgeon to know..., but it appears some of them confuse right and left too often. A Rhode Island hospital was recently fined ($50,000) and reprimanded after its THIRD instance THIS YEAR, of a doctor performing brain surgery on the WRONG SIDE of the patient's head. For years, we have been admonished to take a permanent marker and write YES and NO on the sides of the body to be operated on...just to help the surgical crew get it right.
We've had this almost happen in our life, years ago, as my wife was preparing to undergo a "lumpectomy" the technician placed the x-rays upside down on the viewer screen. Fortunately, my wife was still awake and aware enough to tell them that they were looking at, and poking around the "wrong side of her body." It happens thousands of times each year. So, if you or a loved one are scheduled for surgery, go get yourself a permanent marker and make your mark! It could save a life--or just a lot of discomfort and a repeat surgery.
After covering Brain Surgery (mistakes), China, complexity (in a couple of areas), and terrorism (risks), that's about enough for one edition.
The last word will be the answer everyone asks when I start talking about complexity. What do I do about it. The first step...is "sort it out." Just as you would if cleaning out your closets (your personal micro-lab of complexity at home). Once you sort it out...then ...well, that's another story, for another issue. Stay well and enjoy life--it's the holiday season--do something charitable for someone. It feels really good.
Best, John
Economic Week in Review
©The Vanguard Group, Inc.Real GDP advanced very strongly in the Q3, though downbeat economic reports signaled tougher times on the horizon, in part because of the troubled housing market. With these concerns hanging in the air, the stock market plunged Monday. At the end of the day, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index had fallen 10% from their October records—a traditionally defined "correction." Yet the markets snapped back with a vengeance on Tuesday and Wednesday and ended the week on a positive note.
The nation's total output of goods and services soared in Q3, increasing by 4.9%, the fastest growth rate in real, or adjusted-for-inflation, GDP since the Q3 of 2003. Major factors were a growth in exports, aided by a declining dollar, robust overseas markets, and a buildup of inventories. Inflation, as measured by the GDP price index, or "deflator," slowed to a 0.9% increase from a 2.6% increase in the Q2.
To help counter anxiety over the availability of credit, the Fed said on Monday it would provide $8 billion in loans to help banks meet liquidity needs over the upcoming holidays. On Thursday, remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that the FOMC might be inclined to cut interest rates at its next meeting on Dec. 11. Bernanke noted that "renewed turbulence" in financial markets has "resulted in a further tightening in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive sectors." In addition, he said, "I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions, and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead."
The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell more sharply in November than analysts had expected, to 87.3, the fourth-straight monthly decline and the largest month-to-month decline since Hurricane Katrina. "Consumers' apprehension about the short-term outlook is being fueled by volatility in financial markets, rising prices at the pump, and the likelihood of larger home heating bills this winter," said a research official at The Conference Board.
Americans' personal income increased 0.2% in Oct., the lowest monthly growth rate since April and below expectations. Personal spending rose by 0.2%, weak growth that reflected lower spending on durables. New orders for durables fell 0.4% in Oct.—a surprise for analysts who had expected no change, and the third straight monthly decline. New orders for nondefense durables excluding aircraft, a measure which is viewed as a proxy for trends in capital spending by business, dropped by 2.3% in October and are 1.7% below their year-ago level.
Sales of existing homes declined 1.2% in October—the 8th straight monthly drop—and 21% lower than a year earlier. By contrast, sales of new homes increased by 1.7% in Oct., the first increase since Apr., reflecting heavy discounts by builders. Compared with a year earlier, however, new-home sales were 24% lower. The supply of unsold existing homes stood at 10.8 months, and the inventory of unsold new homes was 8.5 months. Compared with a year earlier, median prices declined 5.1% for existing homes and 13.2% for new homes.
Total spending on construction declined 0.8% in October, faster than analysts had expected. Within the private construction category, which fell by 1.4%, the drop was greatest for residential construction. Compared with a year earlier, private residential construction has tumbled 16.2%. In contrast, public, or government, construction increased 0.8% in October and is up 14.6% year-over-year.
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