Telling It Like It Is

THE ENTERPRISE—A TARGET RICH ENVIRONMENT

THE ENTERPRISE—A TARGET RICH ENVIRONMENT
 
A THOUGHT FOR MEMORIAL DAY
We truly take a lot for granted. Forget the football "heroes" & movie "stars".  Only two defining forces have ever offered to die for you: Jesus Christ & the American Soldier.  One died for your soul; the other for your freedom.
 
AN FYI FROM MY BOOK PUBLICITY WORK
I’ve been doing a lot of book publicity latel—podcasts, articles, radio interviews, and now a webinars—part of a series, The Ultimate Recession Planning Toolkit: Prepare Your Business to Thrive in Lean Times.   Here are excerpts from the notice—FYI:  Simplify Your Organization: How Reducing Complexity Prepares Your Business for Anything
In this webinar, John will outline how the key to preparing your organization for an uncertain economy lies in clearing out your business's clutter. Soundview Executive Book Summaries chose John’s latest book, The Complexity Crisis, as one of 2008’s Best Business Books.  Don't miss this extraordinary experience to bolster your company's planning with John's experience and examples!   The link for the webinar is: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/540787735

RECENT EXAMPLE OF CRIPPLING COMPLEXITY:  IRRESPONSIBLY COMPLEX PACKAGED INVESTMENT VEHICLES THAT CAUSED MUCH OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Most of my past complexity examples have focused on products, and secondarily services, which are rich with examples of rampant complexity.  The one that may be having more near term influence than any of these is the complex, convoluted and flawed investment vehicles known as “derivatives” or “swaps.”  Other aggregations of investments bundled mortgages into complex groupings to achieve better than deserved ratings from financial rating agencies.  Complexity strikes in many forms.  Bottom line (like the well-known Enron business model):  if you don’t/can’t understand it, be suspicious of it.
 
YOU HAVE SEVEN YEARS TO LEARN MANDARIN
Geoff Colvin, arguably the brightest columnist in FORTUNE magazine, points out that China’s maturation as an economy puts it in line to catch the USA as the world leader in 7 years or so.  If this happens, it will end the 125-year USA reign.  The USA took over the top spot in 1890 from whom?  The Chinese, of course, and it’s not an issue of if, but when, we see the return of the former champion.  By the way, the Chinese were also world leaders and innovators centuries earlier.  For a fascinating read, check out this book: 1421: THE YEAR CHINA DISCOVERED AMERICA.  It drags a bit as the professor/author tries too hard to convince us of his case—but it will open your eyes and blow your mind.
 
BARNES & NOBLE + BORDERS—WON’T FIX A DYSFUNCTIONAL INDUSTRY
Publishing is part of the most dysfunctional industry I know.  This year, if trends hold up, could see 200,000 new books being published.  A tiny majority of them ever sell more than 1000 copies, or ever make it into one of the big bookstores.  Most are self-published, with help from the many companies who do this via on-line connections.  The problem these days is not getting a book published (although main-stream publishers are still selective).  It is getting it publicized and sold.
 
As the two large bookstore chains think about becoming one, I have to ask:  will this really fix anything?  Go into a bookstore.  It’s fun.  Try finding a specific book.  That’s not so much fun.  If you wonder how they cope with the enormous variety, the answer is, “not very well.  Of the books you see in a Barnes & Noble or Borders, 40% will be returned to the publisher unsold!  That’s right—4 out of 10.  Or they will, instead of being shipped around the country, be re-priced way down, as closeouts.  What a crazy business model.  Are digital books finally coming of age?  I have not yet tried them…but it’s time to take a look.
 
NEWSPAPERS DECLINING TOO
Circulation of most major newspapers is declining 3-4% per year (exceptions Wall Street Journal & USA Today) and with that goes advertising revenue, dropping at a 12-22% rate.  These papers have historically been the employers of the reporters who were the source of most investigative and analytical reporting.  The result of the decline is fewer and fewer reporters, doing less and less original reporting—that’s not good either.  Part of the slack has been taken up by the blogosphere—but its reliability is highly variable.  Lately, so has the reliability of some reporters from the best known papers.
 
JOE LIEBERMAN HAS IT RIGHT
Go see his excellent article in the Wall Street Journal.  He says it better than all the talking heads.  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121132806884008847.html
Of course Joe Biden disagrees, so in the sense of fairness, here is the URL for his rebuttal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121150000249615875.html
 
BMW & MERCEDES PLANNING TO SHARE SOURCES?
I guess it’s a sign of the times.  Now that Mercedes is once again separate from Chrysler, it finds itself in the “smaller” size range along with BMW.  Both have high standards for components.  Both share a Germanic heritage.  So why not share some “under the skin” components and component suppliers.  It simply makes economic sense.
 
AIRLINE SERVICE & COST GRIPES
Latest scoop.  United and US Air are talking merger.  The lowest and next to lowest ranked carriers in service could be getting together.  Isn’t that exciting?  Now you can pay to have your baggage lost.
 
MACY’S NATIONAL PROGRAM—GO LOCAL
Think global, act local is the old saying.  Macy’s will be trying to do that, but how is a question mark.  It will simply fragment its focus and add immense complexity to do what?  The reason is a futile attempt to repair the damage done to legendary store chain brands like Marshall Field in Chicago.  Will this bring back MFCo shoppers to Macy’s?  I don’t think so.
 
BARACK OBAMA: BE CAREFUL—“YOU WILL BE JUDGED BY THE COMPANY YOU KEEP”
Years ago, my mother always told me to be careful because “I would be judged by the company I kept.”  I thought she was right then, and I think she’s still right. What does that tell you about Barack Obama & Rev. Wright, et. al.  No amount of excuses erases two decades of keeping company with Wright, Rezko (sure he just wanted to overpay for a vacant lot) and lots of others.
 
DID YOU BURN DINNER?—IN YOUR SUV?
Corn ethanol, the fiasco continues.  Food prices are up for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that you are burning “corn products” in your SUVs.  Production of the 7.6 billion gallons of ethanol projected for use this year does several things: 1) Costs as much energy to make as it saves in gasoline; 2) Raises food costs, taking agriculturally productive land out of the food production business; 3) Barely makes a dent in the US huge gas consumption; 4) Requires a land area equal to the size of Maryland, Connecticut, New Jersey and Washington, DC.  Hmmm… Sounds pretty stupid in that context, doesn’t it?
FORECASTS THAT WE’LL RUN OUT OF “FUEL” MAY BE OVERSTATED

A hundred years ago, experts forecast that we'd all be knee deep in horse manure because of all the horse drawn carriages.  Things have a funny way of changing over time.  With oil way over $100/bbl. all the competitive comparisons change, and the motivation for new kinds of energy and new exploration also changes.  Solar, wind, hydroelectric, tidal, geothermal and nuclear all come into play in different roles.

Energy and water will be two of the huge issues in the next 20-30 years...but someone will find a way to solve both (after all, the planet is about 80% water--so desalination is one answer).  Nuclear is a proven alternative if the fear-mongers would stand down, and the amount of solar energy striking the earth is immense.  Somehow, we’ll find a way—but it WILL COST MORE!
 
OK, that’s a huge range of topics.  I only hope this edition of THE ENTERPRISE gets out this weekend.  I am in the midst of converting computers, email systems and more, and you know what complexity and change can conspire to do.
 
Best, John
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PS:  From The Moscow Times: Security services in Russia no longer have to encourage people to inform on their neighbors.  Why?  Because now the Russians gleefully inform on themselves via social networking sites such as FaceBook, Odnoklassniki.ru, etc.  Rumors in the Russian blogosphere are that the sites are being watched (and controlled/) by intelligence agencies.  Watch what you post.  You never know who’s watching you.

THE ENTERPRISE--LEARNINGS

THE ENTERPRISE--LEARNINGS

"IT AIN'T WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW THAT GETS YOU, IT'S WHAT YOU THINK YOU KNOW THAT AIN'T SO" --Will Rogers
I agreed to take one side of an on-line "debate" about the usefulness of social networking sites for businesses.  It appears to have struck a nerve, almost like the political arguments do.  Some folks are very upset, and come back with emotional responses.   Others agreed with me (I listed Ten Reasons I don't use Social Networking sites).  Still others (thank goodness) came back with reasoned and rational replies which educated me about how some of these sites can be used for business advantage--an area about which I intend to learn more. 

The primary two things I learned were: 
1) Some social networking sites can be effective business tools, IF you learn to use them, and IF you take the time to understand what they are good for--and what they don't do well (which I had not done enough of :-[ ).   That's an important learning.  There are good sites, and not so good ones; useful sites and those that are just mostly for fun--or trouble.  It's wise to learn which is which, before getting too deeply involved in any of them.

2) The other thing I learned is that when you take a strong position on a topic (any topic), somebody won't like it, and some of them are so upset, they will call you names.  I guess I already knew that, I just hadn't done it in on-line forums.  Another useful learning.  Don't pay too much attention to the name callers, since their insults didn't do much except make them feel good (I guess).  Pay attention to the ones with good input, success stories, and also, failures.  If you never fail, you don't learn as much as you might.

WHEN CUSTOMER SERVICE IS A DISSERVICE
Network Solutions, the company that sells on-line domain name registrations is also my web hosting company.  For the second time in a year, someone either hacked my site or tried to infect it with some kind of "malware."  Some PC-based site visitors received a warning message, but no real harm was done.  The harm done was the reminder that Network Solutions has some security issues and an incredibly frustrating customer service system--which makes it very hard to get service at all.  Yahoo! was my prior champ as being almost completely "un-contactable."  Now Network Solutions is vying for the title.  Stay tuned for the outcome.  The back & forth is still ongoing.

SAY SO LONG TO APPLIANCES AT GE
GE is an industrial products, entertainment and financial services company.  Appliances didn't fit, but were a carryover from its heritage.  It's now surprise that Jeff Immelt is cashing in that business (low margins, cyclical anyway), to put that money to better use somewhere else.

THE ECONOMY--IN RECESSION?  OR "A LONG FLAT SPELL?"
It's interesting how all the people who predicted a recession are now waffling about whether that's what we have going on right now.  Growth doesn't appear to have gone negative (a recession is defined as 2 successive quarters of negative GDP growth).  First, recessions can only be "called" after the fact.  That makes it of questionable value to hang the name on a flat or down economic period.  We are in a flat spell.  It's going to last quite a while.  Housing and the financial crises led the way.  Housing may be near the bottom, but the inventory overhang of unsold houses will take a long time to work off.  A couple of years is what many experts are betting. 

The government is throwing money, credit and low interest rates at the financial crisis.  it seems to be helping a little, as long as you don't have to borrow money.  Lenders are so tight these days, that getting a loan is nearly impossible--and if one is available--the interest rates will be sky high, and terms squeaky tight.  During a time like this, prudent people get very frugal.   Few people/companies cut back as fast as they should.  It's a time when the penalty for reining in spending too slowly is severe.  Sell hard.  Spend sparingly.  Look for creative ways to grow, and by all means, blow away any unnecessary complexity.

OBAMA ANGRY?  "IF THE SHOE FITS...
I have no idea whether George Bush was talking about Obama or Jimmy Carter or who in his "appeasers" remarks.  I do know one thing.  When the shoe fits,,,the wearer gets mad...which was Obama's reaction.  I hope Obama isn't as much of an appeaser as he's seemed, since he's the likely nominee and the favorite to be the next President.  Appeasers make a lousy commander-in chief.

MCCAIN LAYS IT OUT--RISKY BUT GUTSY
John McCain was here in Columbus and I should have been there live, but didn't make it.  He did a gutsy thing.  He laid out his vision for America circa 2013.  But wait, isn't that what a leader is supposed to do?  Share his vision with the people?  He may not be as enchanting as Obama, but he sure is not the third term of Bush either.  His vision made sense, given the situations and issues the next president will inherit.

DEMOCRATS CAN'T EVEN RUN THEIR OWN PRIMARY--LET ALONE A COUNTRY
Somebody asked me the other day, "How can the Democrats run a country when they can't even manage the primary process in their own party?"  I don't know, but I have this sinking feeling we'll find out soon....and it won't be pretty, I'm afraid.

REPUBLICANS ARE IN HUGE DISFAVOR AND DISARRAY
The Republican party has been badly wounded by the misadventures of the Bush administration.  Democrats are winning elections in the South.  But wait, when I was younger, the South was full of Democrats--except their ideas and beliefs were more like Northern Republicans.  Maybe the issue is the party affiliation and name, and not the beliefs.  Hmmm.  That bears more thought.

WHAT'S NEW?  NOT THIS RETAIL NEWS.
Wal*Mart's doing better.  Sears/Kmart is doing worse.  Seems like the more things change, the more they stay the same.  Target's doing OK too.  So is Lowe's.  Home Depot is improving, but far from fixed (at least based on the buzz I heard last time I was in Atlanta).  You don't need me--or economists--to tell you this. Just go shopping.  Get out there.

LEARNING
The conclusion of the learning story I opened with and the one I closed with is that the way to learn is to--get out there and see, hear and study things for yourself.  One of my favorite activities was taking my staff VPs shopping to see how our products looked at retail.  It was a real eye-opener.  The same goes for getting elbow to elbow with employees, and face to face with customers and suppliers.  Want to learn something?  Get out there and look, and ask questions--and then listen up to the answers--even from the ones who call you names.

Best, John

THE ENTERPRISE--Why is it so obvious to some and not to others?

THE ENTERPRISE--Why is it so obvious to some and not to others?

GIVE THE UAW (& GM) A GUN AND THEY WILL SHOOT EACH OTHER (OR THEIR OWN FEET)
The Chevy Malibu and Buick Enclave are two of the most praised vehicles of this year.  Handsome, functional, good quality at decent prices.  Both are (or were) made by GM--until the fools in the UAW shut down both GM and suppliers' plants.  I don't know all of the details, or even whether it is the UAWs fault or GM's fault.  But, 43 years of marriage has taught me one thing:  it takes two to have a fight.  That means they are both to blame. After Bob Lutz heroic efforts to get GM to design and build great cars, these idiots screw it up.  Neither Lou Dobbs' rants nor the Democratic hopefuls can overcome that kind of stupidity costing American workers jobs.

DEMOCRAT CONTROL OF THE NLRB = DEVASTATION TO AMERICAN WORKERS
Worse yet, a big part of the coming Democratic influence will be to take away to right to a secret ballot in a Union election, which opens the door to decades old tactics--coercion, intimidation, etc.  This effort started 12 years ago, and fell short then.   Now the Congressional Democrats--in spots bought and paid for by organized labor--are taking another run at going back to days of "mob rule" of union elections.  If they can pass the law they want, the simple act of signing union "interest" cards, under intense pressure, scrutiny, coercion and threats (the company can't threaten, but Union organizers can),  will designate a union to take over and represent workers in a non-union plant.  No secret ballot election.   No election at all.  That's the surest way to send those jobs down the street (to a more efficient, more cost competitive non-union plant ... or more likely across border ... or across the ocean.  And the fools don't see it (I meant the politicians).  The unions know exactly what they are doing.  The workers fear for their future, and pay in the process.  2 hours of each employees pay goes to pad the comfy lifestyle of the union bosses, and support for their political "servants."  Prediction:  if that happens, a massive job loss disaster will follow in a few years, followed by more cries for protectionism and all the rest.   Watch and weep--or vote and stop it.

JACK WELCH WOULDN'T BE SO "GOLDEN" THESE DAYS
With the accounting regulations in effect post-Enron, the old days of manipulating earnings quarter to quarter to always match the estimates given Wall Street are long gone.  Jack Welch wouldn't have looked so invincible in this environment.  He'd have ranted and raved and fired people but he couldn't have hoarded the money and manipulated the transactions like he did during his "flawless" run of always making GE's earning estimates.  Jack shot off his mouth this time, too.  He realized that he should have shut up as soon as he blurted out his ill-advised statements.  Now he need to keep his opinions to himself--and if he's as smart as I think he is, he will.

SOCIAL NETWORKING SITES ARE VIRAL ... OR CANCEROUS
I got a couple more of these messages this past week. It looked like emails from people I knew, asking me to sign up on yet another site.  Except if you looked close, when you hit "reply," the reply didn't go to them.  It went to the social network's site, along with an unknown number of addresses from your email address book, who would get similar bogus messages.  What a scam.  Now there are concerns about how to protect kids who populate MySpace and FaceBook from sexual predators.  You can't, unless you can convince them that these sites are incredibly dangerous and to stay off them.  Tough duty.    But once you give them your info, your picture, etc., there's no way to take them back.  No way to erase them.  They are "out there" for anyone to see, find and misuse.

THE PLAGUE--21ST CENTURY VERSION
Isn't YouTube wonderful, I get asked.  That always makes me pause, before I say, "I don't think so."  With the ubiquitous cell phone cameras, an instant of foolishness or indiscretion can be captured and shipped off to YouTube to be immortalized forever.  And there isn't a damn thing you can do once it's out there.  If this doesn't concern you, IT SHOULD.  Treat these sites like the viral, cancerous, diseases they are.  Anything that makes "personal networking" so "impersonal and dangerous" should be avoided like the plague.  It's no wonder that two of newer porn sites are named after parts of YouTube: YouPorn and PornTube.  What next?  Access in the schools?

STALLED DEALS ABOUND--WHAT TO DO?
There are many deals that were negotiated last year in the 3Q or 4Q that are now stalled or falling apart.   The characteristics are almost all similar. Sales drop off in Dec., Jan., Feb., etc. and the buyer has second thoughts about the price--and tries to renegotiate.  The seller, thinking it was deal resists.  Then the buyer discovers that his financing is also changing.  The lender will no longer extend financing at as high a multiple of earnings, thus requiring the buyer to put in more equity to do the deal.  That is what usually stops--or kills--the deal.  Earnings are lower making the price look too high, equity requirements are higher making the buyer'e leverage lower, and the financing terms are much more restrictive. it's happening all over the place.

Some deals are getting done, but only those where the sales and earnings are still growing.  Bottom line: if you are in the middle of being bought/sold, don't stop running the business.  The best thing you can do is run the company well, and make the numbers better--more sales, more profits, less working capital required, and so forth.  Then, whether the deal gets done or not, you have a better, stronger company.

CAUSE & EFFECT? --PART 1
Remember the election in 2006?  Everyone was blaming George Bush and the Republican controlled Congress for all of our problems.  After all,  little over one year ago:
1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Oil prices were "moderate" at about $60/bbl.and regular gasoline sold for $2.20 a gallon;
3) The unemployment rate was 4.5%.

Since voting in a Democratic Congress in 2006 we have seen:
1) Consumer confidence plummet;
2) Oil is at $120/bbl., the cost of regular gasoline is up to almost $4 a gallon;
3) Unemployment has gone up;
4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in equity value evaporate (stock and mutual fund losses) and their home equity drop by $1.2 trillion dollars;
5) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.

After years of "blaming it on Bush," Americans voted for change in 2006, and we got it!   God forbid American voters do it again in 2008.  No telling how bad things could get with the wrong person/party in the White House as well as in Congress.  Remember it's Congress that makes laws—not the President. He has to work with what's handed to him.  Soon we'll get to decide on this again.  I hope we do something smarter.

QUOTE OF THE DAY OR A FRIGHTENING PROMISE
"My friends, we live in the greatest nation in the history of the world.  I hope you'll join with me as we try to change it.'  -- Barack Obama  (But in what direction, Barack?)

CAUSE AND EFFECT?--PART 2:
You think the war in Iraq is costing us too much? We have been hammered with the information that the Iraq war and the war on terror is bankrupting America. The cost of the Iraq War has been high, but compared to surrendering to Islamic Terrorists, that cost doesn't seem all that high.  War is costly; the alternatives might be far more costly.  But that isn't the point here.

Our government wastes American taxpayers money many ways, some of them far more foolish than war against Islamic radicals.  Consider the cost of not managing our own borders and Immigration; letting illegal immigrants flood into our country.  The consider the plans of certain candidates (like Obama) to "take are of them all."  Here's a taste of what that costs now (with sites where you can verity it).  Who knows what those costs will be from here on if no action is taken.

$11 Billion to $22 billion is spent on welfare to illegal aliens each year by state governments.
    Verify at: <http://tinyurl.com/zob77>http://tinyurl.com/zob77
$2.2 Billion dollars a year is spent on food assistance programs such as food stamps, WIC, and free school lunches for illegal aliens.
    Verify at: <http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalexec.html>http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalexec.html
$2.5 Billion dollars a year is spent on Medicaid for illegal aliens;                
    Verify at: <http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalexec.html>http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/fiscalexec.html
$12 Billion dollars a year is spent on primary and secondary school education for children here illegally--and they cannot speak a word of English!
    Verify at: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.0.html
$17 Billion dollars a year is spent for education for the American-born children of illegal aliens, known as "anchor babies."
    Verify at <http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01%0d%0a/ldt.01.html>http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.01.html
$3 Million Dollars a DAY ($1 Billion per year) is spent to incarcerate illegal aliens.
    Verify at: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.01.html
    30% percent of all Federal Prison inmates are illegal aliens.
    Verify at: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.01.html
$90 Billion Dollars a year is spent on illegal aliens for welfare & social services by the American taxpayers.
    Verify at: <http://premium.cnn.com/TRANSCIPTS/061%0d%0a0/29/ldt.01.html>http://premium.cnn.com/TRANSCIPTS/0610/29/ldt.01.html
    The illegal aliens U. S. crime rate is two and a half times that of white non-illegal aliens.
    Verify at: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0606/12/ldt.01.html

WOW--I never thought I'd be citing Lou Dobbs/CNN twice in the same issue of THE ENTERPRISE.  I guess that's the price for being "fair and balanced."  The total "direct" cost due to illegal immigrants is estimated to be over $ 100 BILLION DOLLARS EVERY YEAR--NOW--and that doesn't consider job loss  effects, wage compression, etc.

Maybe the War in Iraq isn't the only thing that's costing us too much.  What to do in Iraq is complicated by the fact that we can't get the Iraqi government to 'get its act together' and pass the right laws--and then enforce them.   I've got news for you.  We get socked with this $100 Billion plus tax bill because we can't get the American government to 'get its act together' and pass the right laws--and then enforce them.  Maybe we should start by fixing our own problems, and saving a lot of taxpayers money here at home.   John McCain gets this (finally).

Unfortunately our Congress can't agree on much these days, and the President disagrees with what they do send to him.  Our system of checks and balances is working--but in some cases--creating gridlock.  The partisan polarization has overcome the old method of reaching compromises and consensus on solutions.

TALK IS EASY--ACTION IS HARDER--SUCCESS IS HARDER YET
Obama talks a good game, but during his brief tenure in Washington was the most liberal, left-voting member of the Senate.  And his idea of seeking compromise was to "talk about it."  John McCain did it--to the chagrin of more conservative parts of the GOP, but he realized that adversary gridlock did no good.  We change all right.  We need different people and a different party in control of Congress, but the prospects of getting there are not so good. That's why we need someone in the White House who understands how to bring about positive compromise in the White House (the current occupant certainly doesn't).  And lofty words don't get it done.  Some old fashioned "horse trading," built on integrity, determination and courage (not hubris) might.

WE NEED TO CHOOSE THE RIGHT LEADERSHIP--DECISIVE & COURAGEOUS
We can only hope that the next President we elect is one that has a proven track record of bringing Congress together on issues, and reaching some kind of agreement --even if it is a compromise--to improve America.  One of the candidates has that kind of record (John McCain).  Often, such compromises don't please everyone, and thus many of them criticize the outcome--and McCain.  But at least they guy is taking on the tough issues and trying to make progress.

The other candidate just talks about what he'd do, but his record shows that in fact, he's done nothing of the sort during his tenure in Congress.  In fact, Barack Obama's been conveniently absent when tough issues have to be voted on.  That's one way to make sure you never get caught voting the wrong way, or making any really tough calls--just abdicate the responsibility.  If that's the kind of change he plans for America--count me out.  And Hillary--her hopes now are to build herself a new power base to run in 2012.

NO DECISION IS ALSO A DECISION--USUALLY THE WRONG ONE
As I finished writing the preceding paragraphs, I realized that the choice to "be absent" or to "not decide" is a popular refuge of those who are inexperienced, under-qualified and lack the conviction to take decisive positions in unpopular matters.  As I wrote this, my mind was dwelling on business settings—not politics.  A common situation, one that I still encounter today, is procrastination in important decision-making.  In business it almost always costs money in the form of lost profits or unrealized savings.  In government, I fear the costs can be far greater than "mere money" and could be loss of life, grave damage to the country, or merely a legacy of indecision.  With this cautionary reflection, I'll close with these words: (Sent to me and attributed to Abe Lincoln, but that is unverified--although they are in keeping with Abe's beliefs.)

IT'S SO OBVIOUS TO SOME--BUT NOT TO OTHERS
A story told to me:
One of my friend's daughters  told me that she wanted to be President one day.
    Both of her parents, liberal Democrats, were standing there with us and I asked Catherine - 'If you were President what would be the first thing you would do?'
    Catherine replied - 'I would give houses to all the homeless people. Then they would have a place of their own to live'
    'Wow - what a worthy goal you have there, Catherine.' I told her, 'But you know, you don't have to wait until you're President to do that.  You can come over to my house and clean up all the dog poop in the back yard and I will pay you $5. Then we can go over to the grocery store where the homeless guy hangs out and you can give him the $5 to use for a new house.'
    Catherine (who was about 4) thought that over for a second, while her mom looked at me, seething.  Then Catherine replied, 'Well, why doesn't the homeless guy come over and clean up the dog poop and you can pay HIM the $5 ?'
    Yes, it's SO obvious, even to a four-year-old, but not to many in the U.S. Congress!
Welcome to the Republican Party, Catherine.

CLOSING THOUGHTS
During this political season let's be reminded of these wise words.
You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down.
You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.
You cannot build character and courage by taking away men's initiative and independence.
You cannot help men permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves

OK, I've gone on too long again.  Once I get rolling on this the rightness and wrongness of some concepts is just too staggering not to point out.  It's amazing how the principles that lead to success in the private sector also can lead to success in the public sector--if only we have the right people in place.  Please feel free to spread the word far and wide.  Our future depends on it.

Best, John

THE ENTERPRISE-What can you do?

THE ENTERPRISE-What can you do?

A RIDDLE FOR YOU:
What do the fractions 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, and the number one signify in regards to the globalization  of today's business world?  Give up?
They all refer to China. China has 1/5 of the earth's population.  The other fractions are China's current usage of commodities: 1/4 of the world's aluminum;  1/3 of the world's steel; 1/2 of the world's cement AND oil.  And the number one is China's new ranking in terms of carbon emissions--in other words--pollution that impacts global warming.  There you have it.  A new global behemoth that is consuming resources at an astounding rate, and fouling both its country and our planet with pollution.  Think it might be time for someone, some group to challenge China harder than they have been challenged?

CHINA PART 2: SAY GOODBYE TO CHEAP PRODUCTION
China goods will be more and more costly. Part of it is because the government is forcing out low tech manufacturers' shops in the areas where skilled labor is available, trying to replace them with higher tech (and higher priced) goods.  Where do these manufacturers go?  Perhaps further inland, where cheap labor is more plentiful, but skilled labor is hard to find.  Expect a rash of new quality problems as this occurs. Or perhaps south to Vietnam, a country also growing at 9%+/- per year, fighting inflation and becoming an industrial supplier.  The problem:  Vietnam just doesn't have enough people—85 million give or take a few—to replace China.  India isn't ready yet either.  It lacks infrastructure: roads, power, etc.  There will be new places, but some of them will be back in this hemisphere.  Watch that trend.

"DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY" OR SO SAID PETER DRUCKER
The future for the next decade will be marked by three crises, all of which are interrelated (besides THE COMPLEXITY CRISIS, of which I have already written).  Mark this date and watch them unfold:  1.  Energy.  2. Water.  3.  Food.  Food is already in crisis in many places.  Civil unrest is already happening.  Part of the reason is the fault stupid politicians who pushed so much acreage into corn-based ethanol.  But that is the lesser part.  No go back to the first topic.  As countries develop, they move from grain based diets to diets of meat and other more difficult to produce foods.    The average Chinese now consumes 110 lbs. of meat, up from 44 lbs. twenty years ago.  It takes 10 lbs. of grain to produce a pound of pork, and almost twice that to produce a pound of beef.  The food crisis is driven by population growth too, and as Drucker said, "demographics are destiny."  Now for the real kicker:  raising livestock produces 22% of all greenhouse gases.  And we're worried about substituting ethanol from corn for gasoline from oil?

WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM--IN MANY WAYS, IN MANY PLACES
Las Vegas is drying up.  It's importing water from hundreds of miles away--a foolish and unsustainable thing to do.  Major parts of Florida are under watering restrictions.  The aquifer is dropping.  Santa Fe, NM has a big water problem.  Georgia suffered a huge drought, of epic proportions this past year.  More of that is coming, as people keep moving into warmer climates where there is too little water to support the growth.  Worst of all, we waste water as if there was more than enough.  Long showers, lawn watering systems to grow plants that were never supposed to live in those climates, lush golf courses, automatic dish and clothes washing machines.    And worse, we bottle it, use enormous amounts of plastic (which turns into mountains of non-biodegradable trash) and also consumes a huge amount of energy just in transportation.

DOES ANYBODY EVEN THINK ABOUT THESE ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCES?
Hell, no.   Everybody is too busy worrying about Obama's pastor or mobster friend, Hillary's lies and inventions and whether John McCain is George Bush--the devil--incarnate.  The argument on one side of the aisle is how much more money can we drain from those who produce the wealth that keeps our country viable, so we can give it to the lazy, the indigent, the illegal immigrants, and all other kinds of poor people who "need it" but somehow, never seem to earn it or even use it wisely.  At least McCain understands that part of it.  The majority party in Congress sure doesn't.  Energy runs everything, yet nobody is doing anything to figure out how to get more of it or use less of it or both. 

THE BOTTOM LINE: A GLOBAL CRISIS OF EPIC PROPORTIONS SOONER THAN THEY IMAGINE
We need to concentrate on shaping up.  On doing the right things, not the easy ones.  We need to harshly denounce the fools who want to create an even bigger welfare state than the one we currently have--that taxes its companies (the wealth creators) at a higher rate than any other.  How can we do that?  WE HAVE TO SPEAK UP.  The old saw was "never discuss religion or politics in social settings."  That's a load of crap.  That is exactly where they need to be discussed.  There and at the family dinner table for that minority of American homes that even have a family or eat dinner together.  Too many teachers--at the primary, secondary and college level are liberals who are poisoning the minds of America's children and youth with ideas that are so wrong, it boggles the mind.



WHAT CAN YOU DO?
First support the right candidates.  Second, speak up.  Third, educate just one person each week about some of this.  You have influence.  USE IT.  Because if you don't, you become part of the problem, and not part of the solution.  Now get out there and "set somebody straight."

Best, John