THE ENTERPRISE--Little bits of a lot of things
INTERESTED IN A BLOG RADIO INTERVIEW?
A short while ago, I did a blog radio interview with Tom K. (short for Koulopoulos), who is a prolific author and an all-around smart guy in his own right. We had a great time, and if you want to listen in, the link below should get you there.
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/innovation/2008/05/08/The-Complexity-Crisis
BEST NEWS I'VE HEARD
Actress Susan Sarandon "threatening" to move to either Canada or Italy if John McCain is elected President. Go, please, and take all your witless actor and actress friends with you. Just because these people can "play as if they are someone important" in movies, they get the mistaken impression that their intellect matches the size of their pictures on the Silver Screen. Good riddance. That's enough reason to vote for McCain, (In addition to him being the best qualified candidate.)
SCARY THINGS YOU WISH YOU DIDN'T KNOW--BUT DO (NOW)
--There are over 7 million people under some form of custody or supervision in the American justice system. 2 million+ in prison; 4.2 million on probation; 800,000 on parole. Either we have too many criminals ... or too many laws?
--38% of babies born out of wedlock in the USA. 28% of white children are born to a single mother; 50% of Hispanics; 71 percent of blacks. Does it take any other statistics to show the reason for US racial problems?
--One in four adults in NYC are infected with genital herpes, but that's only 7 points higher than the national average.
--67% of Americans support oil exploration off the coasts, but obviously none of them are in Congress--or at least not on the Democratic side of the aisle. So much for a "representative democratic form of government."
--16% of Iowa's tillable acreage was under flood waters. That should drive the price of corn up further--which should also drive the price of Ethanol higher than the price of gas. But wait, there are those subisidies...ARRRGGHHH.
--There is now an average of 7 square feet of self-storage for every American. I don't have any, so one of you must be using 14 sq. ft. C'mon. Clean out that clutter and reduce your personal complexity. Save time; save space; save gas by not going there, and then save money--to buy gas to go somewhere fun--not to your "self-storage" place. WE ALL HAVE TOO MUCH STUFF--CLUTTER = COMPLEXITY
STARBUCKS CLOSING STORES, DROPPING MUSIC, ETC.
Reducing its Complexity Factor? I'd say so. Now if it will just call a small a small instead of a grande'.
CUT YOUR TRAVEL BILL--VIDEOCONFERENCE MORE
Cisco claims that it has reduced its own carbon footprint by 11% this way. But hey, they get the neat equipment to use for free, and the rest of us have to pay for it.
WHEN WHAT'S NEW, ISN'T--EXCEPT FOR NAIVE YOUNG REPORTERS...(AND CANDIDATES?)
The vaunted Wall Street Journal carried an article by Andria Cheng entitled "Retailers Turn to Exclusive Products to Boost Sales". It was 6 columns wide and almost 1/2 a page long. I don't know her (assuming it is a her) at all. If you Google her name, it is all over the place reporting for MarketWatch and now writing these "news" pieces about her startling discovery. Except that it isn't news at all. And it isn't new at all. It is a classic case of a smart, aggressive and naive young (I assume) person thinking they've just discovered this big new thing. Further, some of her conclusions about what "exclusivity" yields are dead wrong.
WHY DO I CARE ABOUT THIS ARTICLE?
I don't--at least not much. I wasted a little time reading it thinking maybe it was something new. It wasn't. Then I realized that she exhibited exactly the same bright, articulate, compelling story-telling that our "wunderkind" presidential candidate Barack Obama uses. Worse yet, his following (or hers) of bright young people are eating this up as if it is really big news. Since America's youth have not been interested in its history for a long time, they'd never know that Obama's approach to policy, economics, foreign affairs and lots of other things, failed decades ago. It's just that only us "old fogeys" remember--and of course John McCain is one of us "old fogeys." Worst of all, we keep trying to remind them and explain to them, but the facts are inconvenient things it seems. They get in the way of "CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN."
THE WORST DECISIONS ARE BASED ON FLAWED INFORMATION
I had a shock this week that reflects on how business is conducted, and the preceding few paragraphs. I visited some retail stores at the request of a CEO, before giving him "my take" on some decisions he is considering. Wow! Did I get a surprise. What I thought I knew, wasn't so in one of the stores I visited. And it was a biggie. You know I love the old Will Rogers line, "It ain't what you don't know that gets you; it's what you think you know that ain't so." GIGO was the old computer acronym. Garbage In, Garbage Out. Flawed information leads to flawed decisions--in business and in politics. And THAT IS THE SCARIEST FACT OF ALL.
WHERE DID THOSE WMDS GO? MAYBE HERE'S A CLUE.
Last week, Jordan turned over nearly 2,500 artifacts that had been stolen from Iraq in the aftermath of the US invasion. The objects were reputedly seized by Jordanian customs in 22 smuggling attempts. By now 8,500 of the supposed 32,000 artifacts looted from museums and archaeological sites in Iraq have been returned. Maybe one of these days someone will turn up those mysteriously missing WMDs. After all, if they could get all this other stuff out of the country, why not a few trucks full of chemical warfare weapons?
NEWS FLASH: "THE LONG TAIL" IS WRONG!
Or at least that's what a learned professor (from Harvard) says her research proves. Anita Elberse, a marketing prof at Harvard did considerable research that disproved many of the key points of the long tail. The biggest one is that people don't behave that differently when faced with huge variety of choices (the long tail). They go back to the old favorites. Time to "Cut off the tail," and reduce complexity, I'd say. MAYBE THOSE OLD STANDBY BRANDS ARE IMPORTANT AFTER ALL.
BIG PREDICTION: A NEW REVOLUTION IN INNOVATION
I've been preaching about reducing Complexity. Why? It wastes time and money that could be spent better. On what? Innovation. I hope I can keep spreading the word, because we are on the cusp of one of those eras of innovation that only comes every few decades. What will drive it? Energy needs. Health and aging needs. Immigration control needs. Anti-terrorism defense needs. These and many more of our critical issues will start to coalesce into a huge series of programs, paid for, of course, by your tax dollars--but not only taxes--also by the best investment dollars, those of free enterprise/capitalism and good old fashioned greed.
You read it here. From 2009 to 2019 will be a decade of life-changing innovations. The only question is whether America will lead, follow or fall behind. China will be right out there at the forefront. Why not? It used to be the innovative leader in the world in the era around the 1400's.
THE GOOD NEWS AND THE BAD NEWS
GOOD: The US economy is not a sick as it seems--just "sluggish." Some sectors (like housing) are really sick, but others (Tech) are chugging along, and exports are still strong. Beware of "averages" in Gov't stats, because they often distort the true picture. There is still business out there. It's just skewed (and SKU'd) differently than before. Keep costs down and carefully study where the market opportunities lie--then go after them.
BAD: Iran is acting more an more like the schoolyard bully that just dares everyone to smack him. Don't bet against someone (US? Israel?) getting fed up with its tough talk and taking a whack at something--not a full scale war--but enough of a whack to get Iran's attention. The only question is, who has the guts to tell the rest of the world to shut-up when they start complaining about it. My bet is the ISRAELIS do. If their leadership wasn't under pressure for misdeeds, they might have done it already. Perhaps they (and we) would like to know that Syria has helped shut down Hezbollah in Lebanon, so Israel doesn't get attacked from both sides.
Oil prices will spike to the stratosphere; naval battles over the Straits of Hormuz could involve the US quickly, and Iraq's "stability" would be tested. Short term it would be a wild time. Long term, it may be necessary, especially if Ahmadinejad doesn't get defeated in next year's elections. He's the loose cannon in the Iranian mix, stirring the pot constantly.
FINAL THOUGHT
Our brave soldiers are fighting, risking their lives to protect our freedoms. One of those that is protected is freedom of speech--for now anyway. Some of those talking heads you see on (especially) cable news shows probably should have their "free speech" limited. But instead the Democrats are so frustrated by the success of conservative talk radio (and the failure of liberal talk radio) that they might just legislate it out of existence in this next Congress via an oddly named "Fairness" law in broadcasting--unless we get out the "right" voters to change the makeup of Congress.
Worse yet, failed sportscasters like Keith Olbermann are out there pretending to be real journalists, and some people listen to him. (He makes me want to throw up). Compared to him, Chris Matthews and Wolf Blitzer are fun to watch. Even Chris Matthews had some surprising fun a while back, as he pressed an Obama supporter ( a state representative from some midwestern state) to name just ONE of Obama's legislative accomplishments. He couldn't. No one can. There aren't any. But he'll lead America into the kind of Change You Can Believe In--(when donkeys fly).
Sorry to rant on, but everything that we do in the world of business--and in our personal lives--relies on how our government makes policy, regulates, legislates and governs. To leave this issue alone is just not good business, or good citizenship.
Microsoft, GE and P & G wouldn't choose charismatic, but raw, rookie-managers as their CEOs. Why should the US voters? What's wrong with this picture? Barack Obama needs "seasoning," and the place to get that is not in the White House.
Best, John
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