THE ENTERPRISE
In politics, like in business, the ability to communicate, to inspire and to engage your followers is an essential skill of leadership. There is little doubt that Barack Obama has that skill in abundance. I never fail to be amazed at his skill with words (how much of it does he write himself, I wonder), and with his ability to deliver a message. The convention's closing stadium setting was amazing. Obama's adoring throng and his skillful delivery made for a remarkable night. Also like politics, business decisions are fraught with peril because they often must be made with incomplete or flawed information, and assumptions about how customers or competitors or commodity markets will behave. And yet, those decisions must be made.
WHAT'S DIFFERENT THESE DAYS?
A retired friend posed this question to me last week. Of course globalization came to me right away, after watching the Olympics Opening Ceremony from Beijing. Then, shortly after that, I realized that in addition to globalization, the fragmentation of media was a huge issue. It is now possible to "rifle-shoot" at your target markets, but the challenge is to decide which media to use, and what kinds of ads to run. Next I concluded that It the environment, especially for business, is more complex than ever.
The next point I raised was that there could be a resurgence of US manufacturing based on inflation in China and changes in Chinese laws and business conditions. Then I realized, I had to add: "Unless the Democrats pass the Employee Free Choice Act, which will do away with private Union elections and doom the US employers to a resurgence of Union demand-led inflation in wages and benefits." This law change, along with the "Fairness in Broadcasting Act," are two of the most insidious, damaging and misguided laws currently on the Democratic Congressional legislative agenda. A few bad legislative decisions, combined with new taxes (to pay for too-rich programs) will crush any hopes for a US manufacturing resurgence, and cripple the US economy for a decade. It's happened before. It can happen again. (I urge you to write your legislators opposing both of these laws.)
ALMOST CONVINCED
I sat and watched and listened to Barack Obama all the way through his "acceptance" speech. As he was wrapping up I thought, "what a brilliantly crafted speech." He almost had me convinced that perhaps he could be the ONE to lead America to a new and better future. Then reality hit me. It was an artful repetition of failed ideas, and un-doable promises. During my business career, when I was head of a very successful business (thanks to a very talented management group that worked with me), I made some speeches. I told the audience WHAT we were doing and WHAT we had done. Many around me asked me, "Aren't you afraid that you are giving away your competitive secrets by telling people WHAT you and your company are doing?" My answer was easy and direct, "No, telling them WHAT to do is not giving away much at all. I didn't tell them the hard part: HOW we were doing it. The WHAT is easy; the HOW is hard."
WHAT IS EASY; HOW IS HARD
There, in a nutshell is the flaw in Obama's entire pitch. IF he could do everything he said, that alone would be remarkable. He can't. Worse yet, if he tries, he will trash the US economy in the process, just like some of his predecessors did. Bill Clinton had the benefit of Reagan's Cold War "victory," and George H.W. Bush's tax increase combined with and the tax income from the "dot-com boom" to provide a big economic tailwind on the way to his budget surplus (although much of those profits were either illusions or fraudulent, and were later reversed, which turned into massive losses that lowered tax income during George W. Bush's first term). Things are not always the way they seem--especially economic shifts and politicians' time in office. However, the Republicans in control of Congress (with some help from the Democrats across the aisle) during Bush's first 6 years went "spending crazy," and Bush sat on his hands (and his veto pen) while it happened. Shame on all of them.
TALK IS EASY; DOING IT IS HARD
But even if Obama could actually do everything he promised, I know I'd disagree with HOW he 'd go about it. I will wait for next week to see how I feel when John McCain lays out his plans and aspirations. In the meanwhile, the one thing Obama did do tonight was "lay down the gauntlet." He offered to "debate" John McCain on national security. I only hope John McCain offers (again), to hold real debates, in Town Hall settings, instead of the phony staged "debates" which are little but fodder for the mainstream media. These so-called are so managed, manipulated and watered down, that they prove little. Let's have a real debate; one that is unscripted, unrehearsed, and head-to-head. Then we will see if Obama knows the HOWs to go with his WHATs, and what John McCain really stands for (NOT another Bush term!).
MC CAIN'S IMPERATIVES
Dick Morris, formerly of the Clinton/Democratic camp is now a devoted Republican (as is Dennis Miller)and he lays it out this way:
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DENVER-THURSDAY NIGHT
A master was at work last night. A politician who can inspire hope filled in the blanks of his program and articulated his vision with skill and panache. Barack Obama, never short on inspiration, gave us specifics. He delivered a "State of the Union Address," laying out his programs fully and well. He gave exactly the right speech with the right delivery and balance of detail and rhetoric. And he wove his background and his philosophy into and around his proposals, combining moving words with specific proposals. The speech will surely give him the bounce he needs - turning a deadlocked race into a potential landslide.
John McCain can take back the ground Obama won last night - if he does it right. To wit:
1) Explain why his first term won't be a Bush third term. This man who opposed Bush in 2000 must rebut the charge that he's but an echo of W.
McCain led where Bush feared to tread: against torture, for ethics reform in Congress and the Executive Branch, for campaign-finance reform, for regulation of tobacco, for tough protections for worker pensions and limits on golden parachutes. He was out front early with a broad program to promote alternatives to oil, and with the surge strategy that won the war in Iraq. He's made a careerlong priority for balancing the budget by cutting spending - and eliminating pork, including congressional earmarks.
2) He needs to state the obvious fact: Obama's programs will cost money, and the hundred words he devoted to how he'll pay for them do not adequately face the challenge; Obama's tax cuts are illusions - he'll dig deeper into our wallets, but just isn't telling us now.
3) McCain needs to explain the economic disaster that Obama's taxes will trigger. He needs to put the current economic malaise into perspective and paint what will happen if Obama's tax program is approved.
4) Finally, McCain needs to explain how Obama's proposals to gut the Patriot Act, and his weakness in facing foreign crises, will make us vulnerable.
Obama speech won't stand for months without rebuttal: McCain's convention starts Monday. His task there is enormous; he'd better get to work.
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Will McCain actually take these 4 steps? We'll see.
IT TAKES MORE THAN SKILLED COMMUNICATIONS & INSPIRATION--THERE MUST BE DEPTH & BREADTH OF SKILLS & OF CHARACTER--IS IT THERE IN OBAMA?
Stephen Covey's best selling book 7 Habits of Highly Effective People describes two different leadership types: Personality-based leaders (focused on looking good and talking a good game) and Principle-based leaders (actually doing the right things, and sticking by principles) Author Jim Collins, in Good To Great describes different kinds of leaders, and his Category 4 and 5 leaders are familiar in this context. Cat. 4 leaders often come from outside organizations, appear rather suddenly but are charismatic, inspirational and sometimes do well. Cat. 5 leaders grow within organizations, gaining the respect of the people on the inside; they may not be as artful at speaking and firing up the organization, but their inspiration comes from a deep respect for their knowledge and character. These are the "great leaders" according to Collins. I'll leave it to readers to see the parallels in these two management-leadership classics and how they compare to the two candidates.
WHITHER BARACK OBAMA?
To share with you some of the other points I have considered, I am also posting here an IBD column by Charles Krauthammer, which I think is very insightful. I actually liked Obama's speech. I said to myself, maybe he can lead America to a new future. He left behind some of the soaring rhetoric, and replaced it with good old fashioned politics-he just did it very, very well. Then my rational mind kicked in and said, "but CHANGE to what kind of new future?" And how can I have confidence that this incredibly articulate and persuasive young man is not just a "talented actor" playing a role. And what will he do when there is no script to go by, and he is on the "hot seat?" These questions are raised well by Krauthammer, so read on.
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By CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER | Posted Thursday, August 28, 2008 4:30 PM PT
Barack Obama is an immensely talented man whose talents have been largely devoted to crafting, and chronicling, his own life. Not things. Not ideas. Not institutions. But himself. Nothing wrong or even terribly odd about that, except that he is laying claim to the job of crafting the coming history of the United States. A leap of such audacity is odd.
The air of unease at the Democratic Convention this week was not just a result of the Clinton psychodrama. The deeper anxiety was that the party was nominating a man of many gifts but precious few accomplishments — bearing even fewer witnesses. When John Kerry was introduced at his convention four years ago, an honor guard of a dozen mates from his Vietnam days surrounded him on the podium attesting to his character and readiness to lead.
Such personal testimonials are the norm. The roster of fellow soldiers or fellow senators who could from personal experience vouch for John McCain is rather long. At a less partisan date in the calendar, that roster might even include Democrats Russ Feingold and Edward Kennedy, with whom John McCain has worked to fashion important legislation. Eerily missing at the Democratic Convention this year were people of stature who were seriously involved at some point in Obama's life standing up to say: I know Barack Obama. I've been with Barack Obama. We've toiled/endured together. You can trust him. I do.
Hillary Clinton could have said something like that. She and Obama had, after all, engaged in a historic, utterly compelling contest for the nomination. During her convention speech, you kept waiting for her to offer just one line of testimony: I have come to know this man, to admire this man, to see his character, his courage, his wisdom, his judgment. Whatever. Anything. Instead, nothing. She of course endorsed him. But the endorsement was entirely programmatic: We're all Democrats. He's a Democrat. He believes what you believe. So we must elect him — I am currently unavailable — to get Democratic things done. God bless America.
Clinton's withholding the "I've come to know this man" was vindictive and supremely self-serving — but jarring, too, because you realize that if she didn't do it, no one else would. Not because of any inherent deficiency in Obama's character. But simply as a reflection of a young life with a biography remarkably thin by the standard of presidential candidates.
Who was there to speak about the real Barack Obama? His wife. She could tell you about Barack the father, the husband, the family man in a winning and perfectly sincere way. But that only takes you so far. It doesn't take you to the public man, the national leader. Who is to testify to that? Hillary's husband on night three did aver that Obama is "ready to lead." However, he offered not a shred of evidence, let alone personal experience with Obama. And although he pulled it off charmingly, everyone knew that, having been suggesting precisely the opposite for months, he meant not a word of it.
Obama's vice presidential selection, Joe Biden, naturally advertised his patron's virtues, such as the fact that he had "reached across party lines to . . . keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists." But securing loose nukes is as bipartisan as motherhood and as uncontroversial as apple pie. The measure was so minimal that it passed by voice vote and received near zero media coverage.
Thought experiment. Assume John McCain had retired from politics. Would he have testified to Obama's political courage in reaching across the aisle to work with him on ethics reform, a collaboration Obama boasted about in the Saddleback debate? "In fact," reports the Annenberg Political Fact Check, "the two worked together for barely a week, after which McCain accused Obama of 'partisan posturing' " — and launched a volcanic missive charging him with double cross.
So where are the colleagues? The buddies? The political or spiritual soul mates? His most important spiritual adviser and mentor was Jeremiah Wright. But he's out. Then there's William Ayers, with whom he served on a board. He's out. Where are the others? The oddity of this convention is that its central figure is the ultimate self-made man, a dazzling mysterious Gatsby. The palpable apprehension is that the anointed is a stranger — a deeply engaging, elegant, brilliant stranger with whom the Democrats had a torrid affair. Having slowly woken up, they see the ring and wonder who exactly they married last night.
© 2008 Washington Post Writers Group
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IMPRESSIONABLE YOUTH CLINGS TO MESSAGES LEARNED YOUNG
This is the video the networks will not run. Bill Ayers, friend of Obama, was part of a group that bombed the Capitol in the '70's, and founded Weather Underground terror group. Does this mean Obama is like them? Probably not. Does it mean he was influenced by them as a youth? Probably yes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m89m0pC_bpY
SO WHERE ARE WE?
Let's wait until John McCain and his improbable (yet strangely impressive in many ways) VP choice have their chance. She absolutely undermines McCain's challenge to Obama's inexperience--although in her short career in politics, she has more concrete achievements than Obama--except for one. He ran against and beat Hillary Clinton and gained the Democratic nomination for President. That is a big achievement for a rookie Senator, an undistinguished State legislator and Harvard-educated Chicago Community Organizer. Clearly, there is "something" to the guy that his lack of achievements doesn't reveal.
John McCain, on the other hand is the "old dog." He's well known, a war hero, often disliked but almost always respected. His new VP candidate is a "gun totin', pickup driving, no nonsense, successful local politician and mother of 5. (Perhaps that last experience factor is the most impressive achievement of all. Anyone who has more than 2 kids will attest to that) Thus, let's pause and see how things develop. We'll have to wait until the hurricane passes, and the GOP convention can resume.
At this point, 2 months before the election:
1) I still fear Obama's (and Biden's) extreme liberal philosophies, no matter how cleverly worded the explanations might be.
2) I also concede that John McCain can't match Obama's sizzle from the podium.
3) Obama cannot match McCain's heart, character and steadfastness in the face of real threats.
4) I trust the McCain I know (with all his foibles) more than the Obama that makes me wonder what I don't know about him.
All I can think of is Will Rogers great quote:, "It ain't what you don't know that gets you; it's what you think you know that ain't so."
Clearly this will be an interesting choice, and there is still much more to come in this political process.
Best, John
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