THE ENTERPRISE--STARTING A NEW YEAR

THE ENTERPRISE

QUESTIONS FOR READERS OF THE ENTERPRISE--ALWAYS TRYING TO MAKE IT BETTER
please respond if you have an opinion on any question...
1) Formatting?  Is the format in which I send THE ENTERPRISE readable and does it come through on your computer OK?
2) Frequency?  Is the weekly format too often?  Or just right?  Any suggestions on that topic?  Is the weekend the right timing--for a Mon. morning read?
3) Topics--range and mix?  Is there too much or too little of certain things (now that the election is over, the political content will drop noticeably).  What else might I cover that I don't. Are embedded images good or bed?  How about "guest writers" --more or less--or same? 
4) Subscription?  Many people say I should either charge for it or sell advertising on it--or both.  What is your opinion?  Should I charge for it?  Is it worth money....how much?
5) Should I charge a subscription fee?  And if so, how much.  I have considered a range from $.02 per week (my 2 cents worth) which is $1 per year to $49/year, which is a dollar an issue.  Should there be two tiers?  A paid version and a free one, with just snippets of the content?
6) Should I consider advertisers? (who fit in the context of the material) Are you or is someone you know interested in advertising.  Price?  Probably about $50/ad--to reach about 500-600 direct readers and 1500-5000 who read it in "forwarded" versions.

Here's an idea.  If you want to "vote" that I charge for THE ENTERPRISE, enclose as your "vote" the amount you propose I charge for a year's subscription. Put it in an envelope and mail it to me @ 10218 Ashton Close, Powell, OH 43065.  
Nothing like voting with the real thing.  (I will not be insulted by any amount.)  I'll just apply it to my "current account deficit" just like the government does--and then go out and spend 10-20X that much! (:-)

NOW LET'S START OUT A NEW YEAR...THE 8TH YEAR OF THE ENTERPRISE

WHAT 2008 BROUGHT AND WHAT 2009 MIGHT BRING--AN UGLY LIST

• A recession and hopefully, by the 4Q of 2009, a slow, gradual recovery.
• A stock market collapse, and also hopefully, a recovery of values, not to where they started, but about half-way there.
• A financial crisis and a series of new regulations that restrict the valuation, rating and amount of leverage financial institutions can use.
• Low interest rates which will probably continue, and low inflation as well (except for the spike in oil prices and commodities, much of which has gone back down).
• A huge, "bust the budget deficit,"  created by a governmental spending binge--not "just the $2-3 Trillion on Iraq" but on everything.  Expect it to get worse, grow more, and since the government owns the printing presses, it will simply create the money.  Sooner or later, this will lead to a large dose of inflation (Loosely defined as the price/cost of goods or services rising when there is no or a lesser increase in the underlying value of those goods/services.)
• Bailouts of every kind, some deserved, some well-intended, and most of them, "stupid" and a waste of taxpayers money.
• New government "works projects" to rebuild our failing infrastructure and create jobs.  Unfortunately, the government is not a very efficient nor effective project manager, so the only way these things will get done and be less than boondoggles will be if the private sector takes them over and runs them.
• Unsold houses, foreclosed houses, failed mortgages, losses of equity by homeowners, and the end is not yet here--maybe the bottom has been reached or passed--maybe.
• An increase in credit card debt, soon to be followed by defaults on credit card debt hitting banks another blow.
• Convenient amnesia about the urgent need to become more energy independent in the USA.  Gas prices back down under $2/gal. is a great chance to fund this with a new gas tax--graduated to higher taxes on special blends and higher octanes.
• A recession of sorts in China (growth rate drops to 5-6%, causing internal political unrest?) as its largest customers-- the US and other developed countries (Europe and Japan) go through their own recession woes.
• Huge drops in consumer spending leading to failure of perhaps as much as 25% of all retail outlets.  The byproduct will be lost retail jobs, empty storefronts, both old and newly overbuilt, and a huge mass of distressed merchandise being liquidated, and undercutting the sales of surviving merchants.
• The start of a decline in exports as the dollar strengthens--and the export decline will continue, costing Americans jobs and the government tax revenue.
• An increase in unemployment to the 6-7% range, which will likely grow to the 8-9% range before reversing itself--at the soonest--in the 4Q of 2009.
• A new President elect--biracial for the first time, a moderately liberal Democrat and a more liberal Democratically controlled Congress--which will lead to a whole shopping list of new laws, mostly involving the government getting bigger, taking a larger role in your life, and a still larger share of you income to pay for it all.
• A new "Tar Baby" military involvement in Afghanistan as the US pulls out of a recovering Iraq.  NO ONE has ever won a war in Afghanistan.  The best thing America can do is stay at "arms length" and insist that "Allies/NATO/et. al. pull their share of the duty and that the goal is for the Afghanis to govern and police their own country.
• A reluctance to spend the money necessary to rebuild our depleted military, and update our "weapons arsenal--including nukes--which are still based on 1960's technology.  If someone doesn't update our nukes soon, all the people who knew how they were designed and build will have passed away--and there are few or no programs in process to replace them. 
• The Defense Dept. and the Joint Chiefs of Staff could truly work together (but they won't), and many expensive projects could be cancelled. The money could be spent more wisely.  Each branch of the military wants its own version of everything, because the "cooperation and collaboration" to share resources is simply not as good as it should be.
• The question of how to replenish our manpower in the armed forces is as pressing as any.  Nobody seems to be concerned enough about it.  See the book reference ("ONE WEEKEND A MONTH") below to better understand this dilemma.
• An unstable world with Israel fighting Hamas, Iran standing by just "itching" to get in on it; transitions of leaders in N. Korea and Cuba; Russia's belligerence slowed by the drop in its oil derived wealth, a chastened dictator in Venezuela for the same reason, and a new US Administration's foreign policy.  I never thought I'd say it, but I'm OK with Hillary as Sec. State, given the other choices that might have been made.  She's smart, tough, and her "experience" may be more useful in this arena than any other part of the Obama administration--and that includes Bill's role.

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YOUR 15 MINUTES OF FAME?  HERE'S YOUR CHANCE!
The Economy and You – A Guest Request
My old friend and accomplished author Will Kaydos is seeking guests from the business, education, and government communities to be interviewed on his new talk radio show “The Economy and You.” The interviews will take about 40 minutes and can be conducted anytime from 9:00 AM to 10:00 PM, any day of the week at the guest’s convenience for replay later. The show focuses on how individuals may be affected by the changing U.S. and world economies and what they can do to take advantage of opportunities or to protect themselves from harm. 
Suitable topics are anything individuals would find helpful or interesting such as personal finance,  career planning, finding a job, advancing a career, government resources and policies, the labor market outlook, starting a business, marketing, and selling yourself.    Almost anything in the business world can be related to individuals in one way or another. Your personal experiences and viewpoints can be interesting and helpful to the audience of 25-55 year old men and a significant number of women. 

Guests will get a little free advertising on the show and their session along with their business URL will be listed on the show’s page on The Real State of the Union’s website, www.rstu.org.   If you would consider being interviewed, please contact Will Kaydos at [email protected]  and he will send you more detailed information. The first shows will be recorded after Christmas.  Here's your chance at your "15 minutes" (actually 40 minutes) of FAME!

Will's latest book THIN ICE--AND MELTING--Why Our Economy is Failing and How We Can Stop the Meltdown is now out and available on amazon.com.  The link is shown below.  In this book Will doesn't just explain what's happening.  He documents it with facts and figures (how's that for a fresh approach).  The information may scare you, or it may affirm what you think, and it will certainly help explain some of the inexplicable trends we are seeing.  IF you know anyone in the rest of the mainstream media--please recommend this book to them.  It contains more factual information than a year's worth of the network news.
http://www.amazon.com/Thin-Ice-Melting-Economy-Meltdown/dp/0615252826/ref=sr_1_6?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1230002098&sr=1-6
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SOME OTHER BOOKS I PROMISED TO TELL YOU ABOUT

LEARN TO DEAL WITH CHANGE & LEAD PEOPLE?  READ THIS ONE
They say the only constant is change, and in times like these knowing how to "deal with change" seems like a critical skill. Here's a good place to start.  Rick Maurer speaks at a level that everyone can use.  He has written about how it feels to both be "Caught in the Middle" and to "manage from the middle."  Some of it will seem like "common sense" until you think about how commonly it isn't followed.
If you have anything to do with "middle management" this is a must read book.  The nicest part is that it's short and written in simple English.  It's a treasure.
http://www.beyondresistance.com

ONE OF THE MOST COMPELLING "FICTIONAL--BUT TOO CLOSE TO ACTUAL" BOOKS I'VE READ IN A LONG TIME
You simply must go on-line and get ONE WEEKEND AT A TIME, by Craig Trebilcock.  And if you start reading it, you will find, like I did, that you cannot put it down.  And you will keep saying "I can't believe it."  Well, "believe it--or at least most of it."  It is fictionalized, but it is very close to the truth.  Craig was the PA lawyer who sent me some incredibly insightful information about what was being done wrong in Iraq a few years ago.  This is "boots on the ground" stuff.  Skip Malcolm Gladwell's latest book--you've read the high points in the many reviews--and go to amazon to get this one.  http://www.amazon.com/One-Weekend-Month-Craig-Trebilcock/dp/1591138922/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1231110178&sr=1-1

-----------------------THE LAST WORD(S)---------------------

THE LARGEST US ECONOMIC PROBLEMS--LONG TERM--ARE "UNDER-FUNDED ENTITLEMENTS:"  SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE, AND THE USA HEALTH CARE SYSTEM OVERALL

I WILL TAKE JUST ONE AT A TIME, SO THIS WEEK, HERE'S ARE SOME IDEAS ON THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALSO IMPROVE MEDICARE, ETC.

HEALTH INSURANCE--NO LONGER TIED TO A JOB?
This is a legacy from a practice that was instituted to circumvent WWII wage and price controls.  Instead of higher pay, employers offered free health insurance and the government encouraged the practice by making it tax deductible for employers and non-taxable for employees.  Thus the majority of Americans "accidentally" wandered into what we took for granted for a half-century.  With the time people spend with employers dropping fast, and the need for portability, there is no longer a valid reason for tying health insurance to a job.  Groups are necessary to spread the risk--and in many cases subsidize costs for the unhealthy by penalizing the healthy--so they simply don't signup.  That is a sizable part of the 45+ MM uninsured.  They simply don't want to pay premiums to support the chronically or catastrophically sick minority.

HEALTH INSURANCE FOR ALL--A  COSTLY PROPOSITION!
Being part of a large group has become synonymous with economical health insurance costs.  Maybe, and maybe not.  The first priority is fixing the "system" and reducing the cost of health care.   Somebody will pay the bill for health care.  If employers don't pay it as a benefit (making them less competitive with foreign competitors who don't have those kinds of costs), it will get levied in with taxes--on businesses and on individuals.  That's simply the American way.  Take care of everybody and charge the most productive, wealth creating part of society with the bill to cover the indigent, the lazy, the unmotivated and the unwilling-to-work group--which is large and will continue to growing--especially if new immigration laws admit another 12-14MM illegal immigrants (which they likely will!!).  This will cost  $Billions, no, actually $Trillions if taken over 8-10 years--but it is what 75%+ of Americans seem to want, regardless of the cost. 

WANT TO SAVE MONEY, MR. PRESIDENT?  MANDATE: ELECTRONIC PORTABLE MEDICAL RECORDS, PRICES QUOTED IN ADVANCE & BAN ALL DRUG ADS ON TV
The Massachusetts Plan pioneered while MItt Romney was Governor, seems to be Obama's blueprint.  It is mostly working (even though nobody gave Mitt much credit for it).  There are HUGE health care savings available,  but that still won't drop the cost of a plan that covers "everyone" to less than "Billions and billions" of $$$.  Regardless, the one thing the government does well is mandate things, so here are four that will help a lot.

1)  Banish prescription drug advertising from all electronic media (TV, Radio, Internet, etc.).  This will do several important things.  It will take away the means that pharmaceutical companies use to "create new or obscure illnesses for which they just happen to have a cure."  Patients won't be coming into the Doctor's office demanding all of the latest drugs (and let the insurance pay for them) IF they don't know about them--and the vaguely new illness they are reputed to cure.  This will also reduce the incentive for pharmaceutical companies to "fake it" or bribe professionals to slant the test results and interpretations to support these new drugs and the vague illnesses they reputedly cure. 
(For more on this, I beg you to buy and read OVERDOSED AMERICA by John Abrahamson, M. D., a Harvard faculty "family practice physician" who became outraged by the number of patients coming to him for medications to cure things that were caused by lifestyle problems and misbehavior.  He tees up the abuse and idiocy and it is all documented.  He took a sabbatical from his work at Harvard to write it--and it is "right on.")

2) Mandate that all medical records/systems be put in a standardized digital format, suitable for portability (flash memory with password protection).
This will cost effort up front, and if the government wants to help fund it, it can be done via tax breaks for medical service providers who get up to speed fast, and penalties for those who are slow or reluctant.  Medicare is one vehicle with which to do it, but simple "business tax" breaks or penalties are another.  Not only will this save a lot of money once it is completed; it will also reduce errors and allow the use of artificial intelligence to warn about drug interactions, screen for excessive testing that is not indicated by the diagnosis.  The Docs and their staffs will learn the loopholes in coding fast, but the records will still be instantaneously available, portable and accessible for analysis--pre-, post, and any time.

3) Mandate that the cost of all medical services and procedures and devices be quoted before proceeding (except in emergencies), and approved by the patient.  Also insist that any generic or lower cost options be disclosed.  Taxis do it.  Auto dealers do it.  Why should Medical service providers be exempt.  Since the lists will be long, complex and unintelligible to patients, make it the medical providers' responsibility to designate which ones apply and why.

4) Mandate that dramatic improvements in sanitary practices: hand washing, reuse of clothing, medical devices, etc. be overhauled to reduce infections.  Infections claim thousands of lives each year, and most are caused by inadequate or uninformed sanitary and cleanliness practices in hospitals, etc.  http://www.hospitalinfection.org/
Go to the preceding web site to see how dramatically this will help.  Most restaurant kitchen cleanliness standards are more stringent than those in hospitals. 

These are not complex concepts and can be done simultaneously with the development of a new Health Care/Insurance system. 
If any reader knows Tom Daschle, please send these steps to him.

NOT A WORD ABOUT THE US AUTO INDUSTRY
How about that.  Plenty has been written already.  We'll see what happens.

I hope you will respond to my questions at the start of this edition. I enjoy writing THE ENTERPRISE, but I write it also for readers to enjoy.  I need your feedback and input.  That's the only way it can get better.  If anyone has a connection to get it more widely distributed, please let me know about that too.  More readers, more reach means more feedback and perhaps some new ideas, input and solutions.

For now, try to get through the tough few months coming up.  Expect a grim 1Q, and fairly weak 2Q, and perhaps a glimmer of hope in the 3Q, that the 4Q will start the recovery.  We didn't make this mess overnight.  It won't get better overnight either.  But it will get better, eventually, and those who are the best, and can hang in there, will be standing tall when that happens.

Best, John