Telling It Like It Is

THE ENTERPRISE--A SMORGASBORD--HUMOR AND IRONY

THE ENTERPRISE--A SMORGASBORD--HUMOR AND IRONY

SINCE I TOOK A WEEK OFF TO VISIT A FRIEND IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE RARIFIED AIR HAS CLEARED MY SENSES A BIT
There are so many serious, dangerous and alarming things going on, that sometimes, we forget to maintain our sense of humor.  Many of the things we worry about never come to pass.  Still more of them, we can't do anything much about, anyway.  So, with that, I'll compile an edition with some new vocabulary words that should make you grin, and some new definitions for old words that will make you smile in agreement.  Then I'll wrap with some serious (not so comic) bumper stickers that you've probably already seen floating around the Internet.

THINK OF THIS AS SORT OF A DESSERT BAR--QUITE A FEW CALORIES, BUT NOT MUCH NUTRITIONAL VALUE.
We all need a little of that from time to time.  Now, relax your frown muscles, flex your smile muscles (trivia--it takes many fewer muscles in the face to smile than to frown).
Here are the winners of this year's Washington Post's Mensa Invitational which once again asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition:

1. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period of time.

2. Ignoranus: A person who is both stupid and an a__hole.

3. Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.

4. Reintarnation: Coming back to life as a hillbilly.

5. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.

6. Foreploy: Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting laid.

7. Giraffiti: Vandalism spray-painted very, very high

8. Sarchasm: The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn't get it.

9. Inoculatte: To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.

10. Osteopornosis: A degenerate disease. (This one got extra credit.)

11. Karmageddon: It's like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it's like, a serious bummer.

12. Decafalon (n.): The grueling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.

13. Glibido: All talk and no action.

14. Dopeler Effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.

15. Arachnoleptic Fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you've accidentally walked through a spider web.

16. Beelzebug (n.):  Satan in the form of a mosquito, that gets into your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.

17. Caterpallor (n.): The color you turn after finding half a worm in the fruit you're eating.

The Washington Post has also published the winning submissions to its yearly contest in which readers are asked to supply alternate meanings for common words. And the winners are:

1. Coffee, n. The person upon whom one coughs.

2. Flabbergasted, adj. Appalled by discovering how much weight one has gained

3. Abdicate, v. To give up all hope of ever having a flat stomach.

4. Esplanade, v. To attempt an explanation while drunk.

5. Willy-nilly, adj.  Impotent.

6. Negligent, adj.  Absentmindedly answering the door when wearing only a nightgown.

7. Lymph, v. To walk with a lisp.

8. Gargoyle, n.  Olive-flavored mouthwash.

9. Flatulence, n. Emergency vehicle that picks up someone who has been run over by a steamroller.

10. Balderdash, n. A rapidly receding hairline.

11. Testicle n. A humorous question on an exam.

12. Rectitude, n. The formal, dignified bearing adopted by proctologists.

13. Pokemon, n. A Rastafarian proctologist.

14. Oyster, n. A person who sprinkles his conversation with yiddishisms.

15. Frisbeetarianism, n. The belief that, after death, the soul flies up onto the roof and gets stuck there.

16. Circumvent, n. An opening in the front of boxer shorts worn by Jewish men.


BUMPER STICKERS HAVE THE RING OF TRUTH THAT IS NOT SPOKEN OFTEN ENOUGH
I usually reserve the "comic emails" I get to a limited audience of readers.  This batch of bumper stickers was simply too "rich a source" to ignore.  I only chose the most relevant ones, but it was easy.  I omitted many more "pointed jabs," even though I was sorely tempted.

THIS FIRST ONE IS MY PET PEEVE--EVERY TIME I USE AN ATM, OR HEAR A PHONE MENU....ARRGGHH...
I am in America, right?  In my hometown, in the middle of America--not even in one of those coastal "blue states" where every newly arrived minority takes precedence over everyone who's been there for a couple of decades--or centuries.  Or one of those border states where the concentration of illegal immigrants probably outnumbers the American citizens. 

WHY IN THE HELL SHOULD I HAVE TO PRESS "1" FOR ENGLISH?

WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION AND CENSORSHIP--MARKS OF A NEW GOVERNMENT ETHIC
It's good that the White House has officially declared "War on Fox."    Since the "messiah" came into office, the other news outlets have "Deified him" and ignored any gaffes or flip-flops or other mistakes.  There have been plenty of them, but only Fox has aired them.  Management at the other news outlets and the political bias of the reporters and on-air personalities are so heavily liberal that this is not surprising.  Nowhere (except in the annals of past media history) is it written that reporting the news had to be unbiased.  It has always been biased somewhat, but never so much as now, and certainly, never so transparent.  However, when Obama appointees start suppressing dissenting view on "climate change" and start collecting email addresses of those who seem to be spreading what they call "misinformation," it is time to worry. 

"THE PROBLEM WITH SOCIALISM IS THAT YOU EVENTUALLY RUN OUT OF OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY" —Margaret Thatcher


IT IS TIME TO STRIKE FEAR IN THE HEARTS OF GOVERNMENT-- BECAUSE THEY ARE SURELY RUNNING AMOK
The coming 2010 elections are a time for 'WE THE PEOPLE" to once again assert our understanding of what is going on and bring some common sense to our government by electing a large number of new Representatives and Senators—people who understand that no entity can continue to spend more than it takes in and remain solvent and responsible, and that hard working people like to  enjoy and retain the fruits of their work, and that the "underclass" who is dependent on government largess, can only be supported on the backs of those who actually create value and earn money for it--and the government is the entity that subverts this principle to enhance its power.

"WHEN THE PEOPLE FEAR THEIR GOVERNMENT THERE IS TYRANNY. WHEN THE GOVERNMENT FEARS THE PEOPLE THERE IS LIBERTY." —Thomas Jefferson


HOW WILL DEMOCRATS STAND UP TO TERRORISTS WHEN THEY CAN'T EVEN FACE FOX NEWS?

Who's Behind White House War On Fox?

By MICHELLE MALKIN
Posted 06:18 PM ET

White House interim communications director Anita Dunn assumed the role of lead Fox News Channel-basher this weekend. The attack was a dud.  The left-leaning Nation magazine ridiculed President Obama's press shop for turning him into the "whiner-in-chief." AOL media columnist Jeff Bercovici called the war on Fox a "loser's strategy" that "signals weakness." And that's the friendly fire.

Dunn found refuge in rival CNN's green zone, where she blasted Fox News as a "research arm of the Republican Party." Unhappy with headline-generating Fox News hosts who have wrested control of the news cycle from Team Obama, Dunn complained about "opinion journalism masquerading as news."  Well, that is certainly an apt description of an Obama-sympathizing "news" segment on "The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer," which purported to "fact-check" a Saturday Night Live skit mocking the president's lack of accomplishments.

Yes, the "real" news fact-checked the fake news to cover for Obama's deficiencies. Zero complaints from the White House communications office about that. Or about authentic CNN journalist Anderson Cooper using his prime-time show to make vulgar sexual jokes about Tea Party activists.  Or about the joint White House-ABC News health care reform infomercial that aired earlier this summer.

Some "opinion journalism" is more equal than others.

Debates about the blurred lines between opinion and journalism are all well and good. But don't the talking-points crafters in the Oval Office have something better to do than carp about the talking points they don't like hearing on the one cable network that hasn't been completely overrun by Obama sycophants?  Where are the seasoned press gurus to help Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama appear more presidential and less petty and thuggish?

The corruptocratic affiliations of Obama's communications team are illuminating. His press shop can't rise above the fray because they've been entrenched in the Beltway fray for years. They can't help themselves.  Democratic media consultant Dunn's claim to fame is her decade-long service as chief strategist for disgraced Democrat and former Senate Majority Leader turned health care lobbyist Tom Daschle.

She was in the thick of his failed re-election campaign as Daschle asserted a bogus property-tax homestead exemption claim on his $1.9 million D.C. mansion — which he listed as his primary residence despite voting in South Dakota and claiming it as his primary residence in order to run for re-election.  And Dunn was with Daschle during the years he failed to pay gobs of taxes on a luxury car and driver provided to him by crony donor Leo Hindery Jr. 

After working as communications manager for Obama's political action committee and then as senior adviser to his 2008 presidential campaign, Dunn "trained" White House press secretary and anti-Fox sniper Robert Gibbs.  Deputy communications director Dan Pfeiffer is another protege of Dunn's, who worked with her on the disastrous 2004 Daschle re-election campaign.

Dunn is married to Robert Bauer, a Washington, D.C., corporate lawyer who served as general counsel for Obama for America. It was Bauer who lobbied the Justice Department unsuccessfully last fall to pursue a criminal probe of American Issues Project, an independent group that sought to run an ad spotlighting Obama's ties to Weather Underground terrorist Bill Ayers.  It was Bauer who attempted to sic the DOJ on GOP donor Harold Simmons and sought his prosecution for funding the ad. It was Bauer who tried to bully television stations across the country to compel them to pull the spot. All on Obama's behalf.

While conservatives revel in the left's hysteria over Fox News Channel's dominance, more of Obama's friends hope he'll wipe his nose and man up. Fat chance. As long as he's surrounded by career flacks who demonize dissent to distract from the Beltway stench, the White House will remain an all-whine zone.   © 2009 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved

'FAIRNESS' ISN'T GIVING MY MONEY TO LAZY PEOPLE.



GOVERNMENT DOESN'T WORK.  PLEASE RETURN MY TAXES.


MY CLOSING SHOT--ANOTHER ONE I JUST CANNOT IGNORE:
To all those who abhor or dislike George W. Bush.  I did not say he was good. I said this guy is just as bad, and maybe worse--but differently.  I also did not say that John McCain would have been better--just different--but perhaps different is important ways.  America ignored the two most qualified candidates when it bypassed Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney.  In that race, Hillary probably would have won--and (I can't believe I'm saying this), she would have been far better for all Americans that Barack Obama.  We get another shot at this in 2012.  I hope the choices, and the decision we make are better.

HOW LONG BEFORE YOU ADMIT THAT OBAMA WAS A MISTAKE?


THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK.  NO HEAVY THINKING, JUST A LITTLE THIN MOUNTAIN AIR, VERBAL  HUMOR AND POLITICAL HONESTY.  REFRESHING, ISN'T IT?

Best, John
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"The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning, but without understanding."                                                               —Louis D. Brandeis
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--HOW DEEP IN DEBT IT "TOO DEEP?" & "WHAT CAN I DO?"

THE ENTERPRISE--HOW DEEP IN DEBT IT "TOO DEEP?" & "WHAT CAN I DO?"

EXCESSIVE DEBT DEVASTATED OR WOUNDED MANY COMPANIES & FAMILIES
Now the USA--the entire country is doing the same things.  This has dire implications for all Americans--when YOUR elected representatives spend far beyond OUR means, and have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how this will ever get remedies.  There are huge implications for US businesses too.  This edition of THE ENTERPRISE will explore the implications, personally, professionally and for your business (or employer).  When families take on too much debt, bad things happen.  Sometimes a "workout" plan can be agreed upon.  Sometimes, not.  Such a mistake is usually a life altering experience, and might ruin a family or individual for years to come, making them unable to get credit of any kind.

WHEN  BUSINESSES TAKE ON TOO MUCH DEBT--BAD THINGS HAPPEN
When businesses take on too much debt, they suffer under the burden of excessive interest costs, AND lenders usually put covenants in place that require an earnings stream that will support the debt.  Lately, more covenants have been broken than have remained in compliance.  When the covenant is violated, the lender can "call the loan" or require a "refinancing" IF a lender can be found.  These kind of finance deals are usually very expensive--in fees, and in interest rates, and then new covenants are still set, that must be met.  If the business continues to fail, it is usually forced into either Ch. 11 of the bankruptcy code (reorganization--applicable IF there is "hope" and a "debtor-in-possession" (DIP) lender can be found.  If this is not the case, it goes directly to Chapter 7 (liquidation--in which all of the assets are liquidated and the proceeds distributed to debtors in a "priority order" where "secured lenders" come first and stockholders, and unsecured lenders come last, frequently getting little to no recovery from their investments.

CREDIT CARDS ARE LIKE DRUGS--ENJOY THE "HIGH" NOW, AND PAY FOR IT LATER
Most of us use credit cards.  The vast majority of readers of THE ENTERPRISE understand the problem of getting in debt too deeply on credit cards. When a credit card user pays only the minimum payment required each month, the interest piles up faster than the payment reduced the debt.  Credit card interest is typically 20% (annual rate) or more.  Interest is how credit card companies make money.  Getting in too deep is how many Americans destroy their financial well-being.  When last I checked, the average household credit card debt in the US was over $6000, which is also more than the average working American makes in a month.  Worse yet, car companies discovered that they could lease cars to people wherein the monthly payments covered the depreciation of the car over that time, and enabled people to drive more expensive cars than they could have afforded to buy.  The problem with this, is that at the end of the lease, the person leasing the car has nothing to show for the money spent except the use of the car for the term of the lease.  It is like "drug addiction" of another kind.

HOW TO DEAL WITH THIS
Radio personality and author Dave Ramsey has a simple theme.  Cut back your standard of living and pay off your debts, then "cut up" your credit cards and stop using them.   This is great advice, and will lead to a much more financially sound life strategy.  Financier Bernie Madoff is now in prison, likely for the rest of his life, for taking people's money claiming it was being invested, and then using the new money coming in to meet old obligations.  This scheme (called a Ponzi Scheme) worked pretty well when markets were rising continuously.  When markets turned down, Madoff did not have enough money to meet the obligations and request for money from investors.  He was "broke."  When a Ponzi scheme is "broke" there is not enough money to pay back the creditors.  LIquidate what assets there are and distribute the proceeds, and "that's all there is."  Period.  And there is no other solution for that.

SOCIAL SECURITY IS A "PONZI SCHEME" --OPERATED BY THE GOVERNMENT
Social Security does exactly what Madoff did.  Take new money and use it to pay old obligations.  The infamous Social Security "lock box" was a figment of someone's imagination.  It never existed.  New Social Security money went into the general funds of the US Treasury to be spend on whatever came up next.  Thus, we must find a way to "make good" on the promises of a flawed system--which will not be easy.  SS was created and retirement age of 65 was created when life expectancy was 63.  Now, nearly 75 years later, life expectancy is in the high 70's and retirement age has barely moved.  It needs to move up to 70 ASAP, and possibly beyond that.  Early retirement with actuarial reductions in benefits can still be made available starting at age 62 to help bridge the transition period
.

IN CASE YOU DON'T THINK OUR NATIONAL DEBT PROBLEM IS SERIOUS, READ THIS:
Taking the National Debt Seriously

In 2009 about 40% of income taxes will go towards debt interest payments.

By LAWRENCE KADISH

[Ed note:  My emphasis was added to this excerpt.] 

If you think those town hall meetings over health care were fierce, wait until Americans come to understand the threat to our national financial survival posed by the interest on the government's credit card.  When the government spends more than its revenue, there is a budget deficit. These deficits are paid for by Washington selling interest bearing Treasury securities. If the government were ever to default on its promise to pay periodic interest payments or to repay the debt at maturity, the United States economy would plunge into a level of chaos that would make the Lehman bankruptcy look like a nonevent.

It is the interest on the national debt that makes our future unstable. The exploding size of that burden suggests that, short of devaluing the dollar and taking a large bite out of the middle class through inflation and taxation, there is no way to ever pay down that bill.

As of Sept. 30, 2009, the national debt was almost $12 trillion and interest on that debt was $383 billion for the year, according to the Treasury Department's Bureau of the Public Debt. The Congressional Budget Office on Oct. 7 estimated the 2009 budget deficit to be almost $1.4 trillion (about 10% of GDP). In August, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimated total government revenues at about $2 trillion. The revenue estimate included $904 billion from individual income taxes. This means the cost of interest on the debt represented more than 40 cents of every dollar that came in from individual income taxes.

Except for a few years in the late 1990s, for decades Washington has spent more than it has taken in each year and borrowed the rest. Taxpayer dollars that could have paid off debt each year have instead been spent on interest to finance debt. Unfortunately, that's a vicious cycle that will likely only get worse.  The OMB projects deficits of about $9 trillion over the next 10 years. If that occurs, the national debt will be almost $21 trillion by 2019. However, the actual amount could be much higher. The OMB also optimistically projects $13.5 trillion of revenue increases over the next decade, while minimizing the inevitable rise in interest rates that will come with an expanding national debt. ...

In stark but simple terms, unless Americans are made aware of this financial crisis and demand accountability, the very fabric of our society will be destroyed. Interest rates and interest costs will soar and government revenues will be devoured by interest on the national debt. Eventually, most of what we spend on Social Security, Medicare, education, national defense and much more may have to come from new borrowing, if such funding can be obtained. Left unchecked, this destructive deficit-debt cycle will leave the White House and Congress with either having to default on the national debt or instruct the Treasury to run the printing presses into a policy of hyperinflation.

It is against this background that Washington is now debating whether to create social programs it can't afford.   Americans need to take notice, stand up, and remind our elected officials that in a democracy the people can change bad leaders.

Mr. Kadish, a real estate investor, is a trustee of the Claremont and Hudson institutes.

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I'M REALLY NOT TRYING TO DEPRESS READERS--YOU JUST NEED TO KNOW THE FACTS.

I'd love to come up with some positive spin to put on all of this.  The problem is that a "positive spin" would be as dishonest and pretending we can borrow and borrow and never have to "pay the piper." (The "piper" in our case right now is China, who holds about $2 Trillion of US debt.)  For those who think the government "stimulus" is the answer to our woes, study the chart below.  It shows what a dismal failure the stimulus has been (and will continue to be).  And no matter how much President Obama speaks to the contrary, this chart was compiled by Christine Romer, head of his Council of Economic Advisors, so he has to know the truth.  It's not working, and it won't work.  Government stimulus spending has a zero to negative effect on job creation in the economy.  That was also based on one of her earlier studies.



FOR THOSE WHO ARE GETTING DEPRESSED BY ALL THIS, I HAVE  A REMEDY.

THE MATERIAL BELOW FEATURES MATTHEW KELLY.  He speaks at length about knowing what's right, and doing what's right.    The long piece listed first has several religious areas, because it is being delivered to a Catholic Church group--BUT--the principles he talks about are as relevant and important in any setting.  IF YOU WANT TO BECOME MORE POSITIVE, AND KNOW WHAT TO DO IN THESE TROUBLED TIMES, LISTEN TO HIS ADVICE.  (Plus it is entertaining!)


I PROMISE YOU, THESE WILL BE WORTH THE TIME TO WATCH.
If you can devote 37 minutes, this one will change your life...and how you think about your  life, and how you dream about your life.  If you want to spend the time, watch this, and don't bother to read any further.  Start it at the 10:00 minute mark, and watch it to the 47:00 minute mark.  (If you are put off by the few "more religious" parts," listen anyway...)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NY9wGSuF5Bo&feature=related

For those who are pressed for time and don't want to "change your life" too much, here are some shorter snippets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxHIoHyTE8I&feature=related
How do you see the world?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js087b-YdW4&NR=1
Time the most valuable resource?  NO!  "Personal Energy" is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvY_cf8_dR0
Are you ready to find your dreams and follow them?

FINALLY, A LITTLE PARABLE ABOUT HOW WE GET OUT OF THIS MESS
That's plenty for this week.  PLEASE, READ AND HEED...UNDERSTANDING THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEMS IS THE FIRST STEP TO SOLVING THEM.  THEN WE NEED TO ELECT SOME NEW LEADERS, MEN & WOMEN WHO WILL TACKLE THE HARD PROBLEMS, WITH OUR SUPPORT.  THERE IS NO SHORT CUT OR EASY WAY OUT OF THIS ONE.

BEST, JOHN


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FINALLY, A "GRIN" FOR ALL THOSE WHO APPRECIATE A STORY WITH A MORAL. THERE IS WISDOM TO BE GAINED IN THE BARNYARD:


John was in the fertilized egg business.

He had several hundred young layers (hens), called 'pullets,'and ten roosters to fertilize the eggs.

He kept records, and any rooster not performing went into the soup pot and was replaced.   

This took a lot of time,  so he bought some tiny bells and attached them to his roosters.

 Each bell had a different tone,  so he could tell from a distance, which rooster was performing.

 Now, he could sit on the porch  and fill out an efficiency report by just listening to the bells.    

John's favorite rooster, old Butch,  was a very fine specimen, but this morning he noticed old Butch's bell hadn't rung at all!

When he went to investigate, he saw the other roosters were busy chasing pullets, bells-a-ringing, but the pullets, hearing the roosters coming, could run for cover.

To John's amazement, old Butch had his bell in his beak, so it couldn't ring.  

He'd sneak up on a pullet, do his job and walk on to the next one.

John was so proud of old Butch,  he entered him in the Renfrew County Fair and he became an overnight sensation among the judges.     

The result was the judges not only awarded old Butch the

No-Bell Piece Prize

but they also awarded him the

"Pullet-surprise" as well.

Clearly old Butch was a politician in the making.

Who else but a politician could figure out how to win two highly coveted awards by being the best at sneaking up on the populace and screwing them when they weren't paying attention.

Vote carefully in the future... the bells are not always audible.

 

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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--"JUST THE FACTS, MA'AM"

THE ENTERPRISE--"JUST THE FACTS, MA'AM"
Note: The subtitle is a famous quote from the old TV series Dragnet, which many readers are too young to even remember.  Many "brilliant decisions" are made based on the wrong facts, or an absence of facts, and thus have terrible outcomes.  Thus, a word to the wise, "get the (real) facts!"

I'M NOT SURE WHAT TO WRITE ABOUT
This is a very disturbing time.  Lots is happening, much of it unprecedented, and a lot of it, not so good.  The recession has bottomed, but the recovery is not recovering--yet.  More people continue to lose jobs.  Spending is slow, soft, cautious.  But life must go on.  And so must this edition.

INEPT LEADERS AND STUPIDITY--OR BOT
The stupidity being exhibited by our elected leaders is appalling.  Their complete failure to see the consequences of their actions is even more staggering.  Even French leader Sarkozy tagged President Obama for his inexplicable failure to bring up the Iranian secret nuclear facility at the UN Security Council over which Obama "presided" this time.  Instead, Obama brought it up in Pittsburgh shortly thereafter at the G-20 meeting.  Sarkozy's exact quote:  "President Obama, I support the Americans' outstretched hand.  But what did the international community gain from these offers of dialogue?  Nothing."  I am proud of the French leader for calling out Obama on his misdirection and useless rhetoric.

THE GENERAL MAY JUST QUIT--BUT I DOUBT IT!
Vice President Biden meddles with military leadership because Obama wants to avoid areas about which he knows little, and has even less idea what to do.  Obama met with his own choice to lead American military in Afghanistan, Gen. McChrystal only once until this week, when critics wondered, rightfully so, how the Commander in Chief could operate without any first hand briefing from his leader.  But Biden had the solution.  Fight only al Qaeda and not the Taliban. This politically expedient, but militarily and practically crazy idea has great political chops.  You can't "lose" a fight you walk away from--or can you?  Perhaps in walking away the greater loss will come later.  The worst thing that is happening is that Obama and his minions are ceding the US global leadership position to a bunch of crazies, while they are creating a nation of dependency-seeking supporters.  Who says he "loves America?"  Sounds more like he "hates it."  At least that is what I perceive, based on what he has said publicly in many foreign speeches, and on what he is doing (and not doing).

"America is the greatest country in the world;  and we are here to change it."  —Barack Obama during his Presidential campaign.

DEMOCRATS DON'T HAVE A CORNER ON INEPTNESS
I wonder why some of the GOPs intelligent and reasonable "fixes" for our health care system only surface now--when the Democrats are inches from the goal line of creating a government operated health care system--which will eventually both break our nation and work to all of our disfavor--after a brief honeymoon of help for the distressed.  We will all become distressed.  Where were these GOP plans when they controlled Congress--and the White House--for Bush's terms?  I guess they were not important enough to legislate then.  Why?  Because the "old timers" in the GOP, for the most part, are almost as bad as the old-timers in the Democratic party.  They are just wrong differently.  The rants of Limbaugh, Hannity, Coulter, et. al. grate on the nerves as they solve nothing, but inflame the hearts and minds of decent people.

"The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning, but without understanding."                                                             —Louis D. Brandeis

IF I COULD HAVE A THIRD PARTY TO BELONG TO, I WOULD--"THE NEW AMERICAN PARTY"
Both of our current political parties are a mess.  The Democratic leaders, mostly aging and also mostly very left-leaning liberals are going to ruin the USA for a generation to come.  The reasonable, moderate Democrats are not a large enough group to change that.  The Republicans are now in the "obstructionist" mode, since they have no clear leader and few well articulated alternatives to the Obama/Congressional folly.  Does anyone see a really exciting new Republican leader on horizon. (Is it Tim Pawlenty?  Need to do some homework on him!)

Unfortunately money, history and the entrenched interests make the likelihood of a successful third party so low as to be unrealistic.  The Libertatirans can't do it.  Ross Perot's millions couldn't do it.  Ralph Nader's persistence couldn't do it.  AND YET, THAT IS WHAT AMERICA NEEDS.  MASS DEFECTIONS FROM THE TWO POLARIZED AND PARTISAN EXTREMES TO FORM A NEW AMERICAN PARTY.  Fiscally responsible and conservative and socially moderate people, (I think), make up the vast majority in America.  How can we get a voice in our government over these idiots we elected to Congress and the White House?  IF ANY READERS HAVE AN ANSWER TO THIS, I'D LOVE TO HEAR IT. First, we need to replace as many of the current misguided elected officials as possible.  Our chance to do that next is Nov. 2010.

OBAMA'S GOT "PORK FLU"--When you don't know what to do, "throw money at the problem."


IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, I'LL PUBLISH THE "PLATFORM" (or at least most of it) for the NEW AMERICAN PARTY!

ON TO OTHER TOPICS--A LIST OF FACTS TO CONSIDER--(OR DISPUTE IF YOU WISH)
--Fact:  The US budget deficit for the past year was $1.4 TRILLION,  a record level by far.  That is NOT GOOD!

--Fact:  Over 70% of Americans will not believe the recovery is here until employment reverses and job losses stop--replaced by gains.  It matters little who tells them otherwise (Source: BIGresearch's American Pulse Survey of over 4000 Americans.)

--Fact:  You can cost reduce your way to survival but not to prosperity.  That takes growth in revenue (not government largess) which is largely derived from innovation--which takes brains and guts, two things that are scarce these days. 

--Fact:  You cannot win by watching your competitor and reacting.  You'll be slow and late every time.  In business (and in most sports), the attacker has a natural advantage.

--Fact:  The "outs" always have an advantage over the "ins" no matter which party is which, because they can say they'd do better--but they seldom do.

--Fact:  Companies do a lousy job choosing leaders too.  CEO turnover is at 15%/year and growing.  New CEOs typically last about 18 months.  That's simply deplorable, considering that most of them had been successful CEOs somewhere else before.  e.g., Longaberger (Baskets) near Columbus is on its 5th CEO in 5 years. 

--Fact:  Promoting a great COO to CEO is often a mistake.  CEOs have different jobs and need different skills than COOs. The COO make sure 'the trains run on time--profitably"  The CEO decides where they should be going, and whether they should be trains at all.

--Fact:  There are only two way to balance a budget:  less spending or more income.  That's it.

--Fact:  A weak US dollar results in a hidden tax on every American.

--Fact:  Barack Obama is more "pitchman" than President--and when the pitch doesn't make sense (like the Chicago Olympic bid) he has nowhere to turn.  His solution to every problem is to "make a speech."  Perhaps he should stop talking and start learning the consequences of his actions before he launches them with yet another speech.

--Fact:  Inspiration must be built upon reality and truth to have any lasting effect.

--Fact:  Nuclear weapons are here to stay, and if Obama insists on disarming the US, it will be the first major country to be attacked with Nukes.  Who has them now and who will have them soon is a growing and disconcerting list.

--Fact:  The average Federal employee earns $119,982 per year in compensation and benefits. 

--Fact:  The average Private sector employee earns $59, 909 per year in compensation and benefits.

--Fact:  To cover this disparity, $100 billion/year is taken from the private sector in income taxes, and Federal employees only make up 2 million of the 20 million that work in the public sector.

--Fact:  The Federal Bureaucracy grows and grows to no good purpose:  The Department of Energy was formed in 1977 to make us "independent of foreign oil."  Now it has grown to a bureaucracy of 18,000 people and a $25 Billlion annual budget and we are as dependent on foreign oil as ever--or more so.

--Fact:  President Obama lied repeatedly in his speech on health care (documented by numerous news sources), but it was socially incorrect for a Congressman to call him out on just one of his lies.

--Fact:  ACORN is a corrupt organization and it has very close ties to the President, and has had for years, by his own admission in public speeches. 

--Fact: Charles Rangel is the leader of a major Congressional committee and has violated several laws on conduct and taxes, but still holds this prestigious seat. 

--Fact: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is a tax evader who now governs the IRS, only because he was caught and allow to make restitution.

--Fact:  When the Federal Reserve simply "prints more money" to pay the government's bills, the result must necessarily be inflation, since there was no underlying value to that money.  Inflation is another hidden tax on all Americans.

--Fact:  Most, if not all, government stimulus spending has a NEGATIVE effect on the economy acting as a non-stimulus after the initial money is spent because it replaces private sector investment with taxes to fund the stimulus

--Fact:  There are not enough doctors and nurses to meet the needs now, and increasing the number of people covered for medical care will worsen that problem.  Cutting the pay of doctors to help control health care costs will result in fewer doctors, making the shortage even worse.

--Fact:  America is aging and Americans will consume even more health care in the future than in the past.  In a decade, "minorities" in the aggregate, will be the majority.  In a few decades, there will be no more "blacks and whites, etc."  There will be more and more "tans" as races intermarry and reproduce.

--Fact:  One of America's greatest vulnerabilities to attack is the "Information and Communication Infrastructure," including the Internet, cell phones and the millions of computers which control almost everything from the power grid to the air traffic control system to the banking system to Wall Street to every form of broadcast media...and more.  AND NO ONE IS SECURING THIS.

--Fact:  There are not really 46 million "uninsured" Americans that need to be insured.  Many (10+ million) are here illegally; many (17+/- million) can afford insurance and don't want to pay for it; many are in transition.  The real number of "desperately uninsured" is more like 15+/- million--maybe.  Thus the question:  Do we need to dramatically change the system for the other 250+ million to accommodate this 15 million?

--Fact:  Many, many "true scientists" believe the "Global Warming" scare is a myth, totally unfounded in scientific fact, and constructed on anecdotal evidence for political purposes.   e.g., CO2 is NOT a greenhouse gas.  It is necessary for plant and human life on earth.  Passing a Cap & Trade system will assess another huge hidden tax on all Americans.

THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS NO CORNER ON STUPIDITY--STATES CAN DO IT TOO.
    --Fact:  Stupidity can be local as well as national.  e.g., Columbus Ohio is tearing down a perfectly good, multi-million dollar mall downtown, which was the showcase just over a decade ago, and now has been eclipsed by a series of suburban malls.  First rule:  people would rather shop near where they live rather than near where they work--especially in urban/suburban cities.  Places like NYC where many people live in the same general areas where they work are the exception.  Columbus couldn't find any better use for this magnificent structure than to tear it down and make a downtown park.  Any bets on how long before that park (which generates zero tax revenue) becomes an economic millstone and a security/crime problem.  I give it two years.

    --Fact:  Misguided governors can damage states faster that anything.  Ohio had one for eight years.  Bob Taft was his name and he crippled Ohio because he wouldn't or couldn't stand up to much of anyone, on much of anything.  So now Ted Strickland takes over, and he balances an unbalanced budget by using one time Federal stimulus money ($5B of it) to plug a gap, and it still doesn't balance.  So he decides casinos are the answer (casinos are a form of taxes on the weak-willed).  But now the casinos are under legal dispute, so the gap will have to be filled by stopping tax relief that was passed to undo some of Taft's mistakes.  It is a comedy of errors.  Meanwhile, Ohio suffers.

    --Fact:  Take California, please?  The land of "fruits and nuts" is being taken over by the "fruits and nuts."  Please, no California "bailout!"

FINAL FACT:  No newsletter is accurate all the time.  And, as Mark Twain once said, "All generalizations are false, including this one."

Best, John


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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS? A SLOW, JOBLESS RECOVERY

THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS? A SLOW, JOBLESS RECOVERY

At the end of this edition, is a brief future forecast from Stratfor .http://www.stratfor.com .   More of its forecasts will follow as they come out.

The excerpted piece from John Mauldin is long, and takes some concentration, but his points are solid, scary and well documented.  I wouldn't include something this long if I didn't think it was important reading.  First some "quick hits."

CONCERNING TIDBITS AND THE "LIKELY LOSERS"

• Japanese car makers Honda and Toyota are symptomatic of the  currency problem with the Yen near 90 to the US dollar.  Many Japanese manufacturers will suffer, and this is an exchange rate not likely to change for a long time.  Other countries are suffering too, but Japan more than most at this time.  Losers: American Consumers and Japanese manufacturers. (Remember a WEAK DOLLAR IS A HIDDEN TAX)

• Finally someone is "whistle-blowing" on the irresponsible "ratings agencies" (Moody's, S & P, et. al. who were the real culprits in helping cause the financial crisis.  How they could have rated some of that garbage a AAA is beyond belief.  Some of them should suffer, pay fines and go to jail.   Losers:  American investors and many global investors who trust these investment ratings.

• Roman Polanski--child molester/rapist and generally bad guy is being supported by a wide range of Hollywood celebrities.  This is living proof of how the movie industry has legions of morally bankrupt people.  Of course, the movies they are making show that too.  Losers:  Everyone who has morals and cares about the "entertainment" that is being created.

• And then there is Michael Moore, the fat fool of cinema with another of his propaganda films.  It will be widely distributed and some of his fellow fools will give it great praise.  These are the same people who gave Al Gore an Oscar.  Consider the source--then dismiss them.  Losers: Michael Moore and Al Gore.  What goes around, comes around.  Both will be exposed and the phonies, posers and propagandists they are--someday.

• A recent WSJ article entitled "Hate Calculus?  Try Counting Cow Carbon," pointed out the foolishness of the recent move to "count the carbon impact" of everything.    It is impossibly flawed, vague and arguably non-scientific. I don't care if Wal-Mart is for this; Wal-Mart is dead wrong.  It is about to saddle suppliers with another huge project to make it look good and feel good in the media.  Remember the big RFID project.  Can anyone tell us the ROI on that one. Losers:  Wal-Mart customers, and ultimately the American people if this lunacy becomes law--which Cap & Trade threatens to become.

• Panetta the "punching bag."  Why doesn't he tell the Obama camp to either get out of his face, or find some flunky to put in charge of the CIA,  So much damage was done under Clinton's regime, and now it continues.  Pretty soon, the only reliable intelligence services will be the "private ones," where real (smart, determined) people dig into the areas and secrets.  But then, who'd want another "Blackwater-type" scandal? Losers:  Americans and future elected officials who will have lousy, politically correct intelligence--instead of the cold, hard facts they need for decisions.

• Why are Jews liberals?  That is the title of a new book and several articles.  It beats me.  Maybe one of my Jewish friend and readers can tell me.  Maybe it is their "persecution complex" manifesting itself--the Jews have certainly had their share of that.  Or maybe it is because they are wealthier than most Americans (or so the belief goes).  As it stands, Obama policy will leave Israel so far out on a limb they can drop a bomb on Iran from there.  Talk about an appeaser President hoping someone else will do his "dirty work."  Losers:  Jewish-Americans, and the people of Israel.

• Doesn't anyone remember the array of Jimmy Carter's era of stupidity.  Doesn't anyone in Washington understand how "protectionism" in global trade backfires?  For that matter, is there anyone in a position of power in Washington who understands how business works, or has actually run a for profit business successfully and created real wealth?  Or are they all just "redistributors?"  Losers:  All Americans, because as American businesses are damaged, jobs go away.

THAT IS MY SEGUE TO THE PROBLEM WITH THIS "RECOVERY"--JOBS (OR RATHER THE LACK THEREOF)
I usually think John Mauldin is brilliant, but also is too "bearish" about the future.  Right now, I still think he is brilliant, but I am leaning toward the fact that we may be seeing the start of a "new normal."  That would be scary, but possible.

I will post a heavily excerpted part of John's recent newSletter to show why the "recovery" we are all wondering about is not so near, and not so exciting either.  Why?  Joblessness.  The areas in bold are my "emphasis added" so they will stand out.  (You can subscribe to this one yourself--it's free: [email protected])

I keep hoping that John is too pessimistic, but I can't find the flaw in his premises or his data.  Can you? 

If not, my suggestion is that you hunker down for one of the least enjoyable recoveries in modern history. 

Conditions have (mostly) stopped getting worse, although over a quarter million people lost their jobs this past month--and I bet they'd say things are not improving.  Retail is still in the dumper and projections (backed by credible surveys by firms like BIGresearch http://www.bigresearch.com) predict that consumers will spend less, bargain hunt more and generally keep their spending low during the coming 4Q--which includes Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas.
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Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter
Welcome to the New Normal
by John Mauldin
September 25, 2009
©John Mauldin

In this issue:
What We See
And What We Don't See
The Statistical Recovery
A Double-Dip Recession?
Welcome to the New Normal

Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look deeper into the Statistical Recovery and find yet more reasons to be concerned about near-term deflation. This week we consider all things unemployment and ponder the need to create at least 15 million jobs in the next five years to return to a full-employment economy - and the implications for both the US and world economies if we don't.

What We See

First, the unemployment rate is now officially at 9.7%. [Ed. note:  it just hit 9.8%] We are approaching the official high we last saw at the end of the double-dip1982 recession. In the chart below, notice that unemployment rose throughout 1980 and then began to decline, before rising rapidly as the economy entered the second recession within two years. Also notice the rapid drop in unemployment following that recession, as opposed to the recessions of 1991-92 and 2001-02, which have been characterized as jobless recoveries. Unemployment was as low as 3.8% in 2000 and saw a cycle low of 4.4% in early 2007.

(For the record, all this data is available on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. There is a treasure trove of data. They are quite open about what they do and how they do it. When I call to ask a question, they are quite helpful. How people interpret the data is not their fault.)

 
 
 

This headline unemployment number (9.7%) is what we see when we read the paper. What we typically don't see is the real number of unemployed. For instance, if you have not actively looked for a job in the last four weeks, even if you would like one, you are not counted as unemployed. You are called a "marginally attached" or "discouraged" worker. Often there are very good reasons for this. You could be sick, dealing with a family emergency, going back to school, or not have transportation.

Right now, about one-third of marginally attached workers actively want jobs but have not bothered to look because they believe there are no jobs in their area, at least not for them. If you add that extra 758,000 to the unemployment data, you get what is called U-4 unemployment, which today is 10.2%. If you count all marginally attached workers the unemployment number is 11% (U-5 unemployment).

And if you add those who are employed part-time for economic reasons (i.e., they can't get full-time jobs) the unemployment number rises to 16.8%. (That is called U-6 unemployment.)

Now, stay with me for the next two tables taken directly from the BLS website. The first is the total number of people in the US civilian work force. Notice how each year the number of potential workers rises. In fact, the number of workers has risen by about 15 million over the last ten years. This is from population growth and from immigration. Also notice that the normal rise did not happen last year. That is because the number of discouraged workers has risen rapidly and, as noted above, they are not counted. We will revisit this point later. But for now, there are 154,577,000 people in the available work force.



Next we look at the tables for the actual level of employment. Here we note that we are down almost 8 million jobs sincd the onset of this recession, and that there are almost 15 million people unemployed.



Going back to the part-time workers, there are roughly 9 million people who are working part-time because of business conditions, or those are the only jobs they could find. The average work week is at an all-time low of 33 hours. The chart below is from my friend David Rosenberg.

 
 



David wrote in a special report today:

"What does all this mean? It means that when the economy does begin to recover, when we finally get to the other side of the mountain, companies are going to raise their labour input first by lifting the workweek from its record low. Just to get back to the pre-recession level of 33.8 hours would be equivalent to hiring three million workers. And, the record number of people working part-time against their will are going to be pushed back into full-time, which will be great news for them, but not so great news for the 125,000 - 150,000 new entrants into the labour market every month. They won't have it so easy because employers are going to tap their existing under-utilized resources first since that is common sense. Also keep in mind that there are at least four million jobs in retail, financial, construction and manufacturing jobs lost this cycle that are likely not coming back. In fact, the number of unemployed who were let go for permanent reasons as opposed to temporary layoff rose by more than five million this cycle. This compares to the 1.2 million increase in the 2001 tech-led recession and in the 1990-91 housing-led recession (when Ross Perot talked about the sucking sound of jobs into Mexico)."

And What We Don't See

Those are the facts. Now it's time to look at what we don't see, and what you don't read or hear from the mainstream media.

...We are adding about 1.5 million workers to the workplace every year. That means over the next five years we are going to need 7.5 million jobs just to maintain that growth, or about 125,000 a month. That is on the low side of what economists normally estimate, which is around 150,000 per month. If we used the 150,000 estimate, it would mean we need 9 million jobs.

There are at least 1 million (and probably more like 2 million) discouraged workers who would take jobs if the economy got better. You can derive that number by going back to early 2007 and seeing the level of discouraged workers. That means, by the end of 2014 we are going to have 163 million people in the work force (see table above).

Today we have 139.6 million jobs, and that number is likely to slip at least another half million (last month the economy lost 216,000 jobs, with a very suspicious birth-death ratio accounting for a lot of job creation). So let's call it 139 million current jobs.

Let's assume that we would like to get back to a 5% unemployment rate. That would not be stellar, but it would certainly be better than where we are today. Five percent unemployment in late 2014 will mean 8.1 million unemployed. To get to 5% unemployment we will have to create 14 million jobs in the five years from 2010-2014. (163 million in labor pool minus 8 million unemployed is 155 million jobs. We now have 139 million jobs, so the difference is roughly 15 million.) Plus the equivalent of 3 million jobs that Rosenberg estimates, just to get back to an average work week. And maybe the extra 1.5 million a year I mentioned above.

But let's ignore those latter jobs and round it off to 15 million. Let's hope that by the beginning of next year we stop losing jobs. That means that to get back to 5% unemployment within five years we need to see, on average, the creation of 250,000 jobs per month. As an AVERAGE!!!!!

Look at the table below. It is the number of jobs added or lost for the last ten years. Do you see a year that averaged 250,000? No.




If you take the best year, which was 2006, you get an average monthly growth of 232,000. If you average the ten years from 1999, you get average monthly job growth of 50,000. If you take the average job growth from 1989 until now, you get an average of 91,000 a month. If you take the best ten years I could find, which would be 1991-2000, the average is still only 150,000. That is a long way from 250,000.

Even with robust growth of 200,000 jobs a month thereafter for the next two years, unemployment will still be close to or over 9%. That would only be an additional 1.8 million jobs (making the most optimistic assumptions) over the new jobs needed for population growth.

A Double-Dip Recession?

And that is before this administration makes the economically suicidal move to raise the top tax rate by 10%. The popular image is that those who pay the highest tax rate are Wall Street execs, bankers, and corporate moguls. The reality is that 75% of them are small business owners, and they are responsible for the large majority of new jobs that are going to be needed, not to mention a large part of consumer spending. If you tax them more you are going to get fewer jobs (as they will have less to invest) and less consumer spending.

A tax increase of the size being contemplated, with unemployment at today's level, will guarantee a double-dip recession, which of course means that unemployment will rise, not fall.

Without getting too political, think about elections in 2010 with unemployment levels still rising. And fast-forward to 2012, with deficits (optimistically) projected to be almost $1 trillion and rising. With a tax increase giving us another recession?

Today's Wall Street Journal tells us that 5 million people have been unemployed for over 6 months. And the longer you are unemployed, the harder it is to get a job. That means you have to settle for a job with less income than you had before.  The only group to see a rise in employment? Those over the age of 55, as they have to take a job, any job, so they can save for retirement.

The Statistical Recovery

The economy is in the process of bottoming. The year-over-year comparisons are getting easier. We will find that new level of spending and economic activity and grow from there. But it is going to be awhile before we get back to full employment. While the numbers may say recovery, it is not going to feel like one.

We have enormous excess capacity - capacity utilization is about 68%. Banks are cutting back on their loans, and consumers and businesses are borrowing less. Housing is likely to be in a funk for at least two years. We are deleveraging, which is causing the velocity of money to slow.

All of this is very deflationary. Will the Fed print enough money to reflate the economy? You better hope so. Will we have to deal with it later? Of course. We have no good choices. We are in for a long five years, at the least. Yes, there will be opportunities, and new industries will be created. But it won't happen overnight.

Welcome to the New Normal.

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FOURTH QUARTER FORECAST: INTRODUCTION from Stratfor

Editor's Note: Our fourth-quarter forecast, a supplement to our annual and third-quarter forecasts, is broken into three parts: introduction, primary forecast and regional trends.   In this piece, we outline what we expect to transpire over the next three months. Our primary forecast focusing on critical global trends publishes Monday, Oct. 5. Our forecast on regional trends publishes Tuesday, Oct. 6.

Setting the Stage

Events are taking the fourth quarter of 2009 into new territory. The rising confrontation with Iran has taken center stage as a conflict with global participants and global consequences. As the final quarter of the year dawns, representatives from the world's major countries are meeting in Geneva with their Iranian counterparts. The official goal is to see if sufficient international safeguards can be placed on the Iranian nuclear program. Failure could well lead first to sanctions against Iran, and should those fail, possibly a U.S.-Iranian military confrontation.

At its core, the brewing crisis is this: Israel is too small a territory to tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran, and too militarily weak to guarantee that it can deal with the problem on its own. However, an Israeli strike would certainly generate Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Persian Gulf, which in turn would force the United States to act against Iran directly. So the question in STRATFOR's collective mind is whether or not any concessions Iran grants on its nuclear programs will be sufficient to satisfy Israel's security concerns. The Obama administration is obviously a player, and the onus is on the Americans to act, but the decisions that truly matter will be made in Israel, not the United States.

As goes this crisis, so goes the world.

Russia is attempting to lock down the United States in the Middle East so that Moscow can extend and deepen its efforts to re-create its Soviet-era sphere of influence, particularly in the former Soviet Union. Thus Russia is funneling various forms of assistance, primarily technical cooperation on weapons, energy and nuclear industries, to Iran. It is also making apparent its intent to do an end run around any sanctions the West might impose on Iran. An Iran strong enough and independent enough to keep the United States preoccupied is just what Russia wants.

After the worst recession in a generation, the global economy is on the mend. The ending recession was primarily financial in nature, meaning that it evolved primarily into a crisis of confidence. Confidence requires time to rebuild, and as such the recovery is both shallow and extremely uneven, with some regions as likely to descend back into recession as return to real growth. It is a recovery very vulnerable to disruption. A military confrontation in the Persian Gulf would send shock waves through the system, at a minimum interrupting the flow of Iran's 2.4 million barrels of daily oil exports. That alone would be more than enough to break the recovery's back.

Copyright 2009 Stratfor.


John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959  http://www.mariotti.net   http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/