THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT IF?
"WHAT IF" QUESTIONS WILL FRAME THIS WEEK'S EDITION
We have a rookie President, inexperienced, uncertain and acting in a way that is far different than his campaign rhetoric or even the positions he espoused from the teleprompter. The American people may be a lot of things: spoiled, apathetic, frustrated and angry. They are not stupid. Sooner or later, they will realize that the Obama campaign "sold them a bill of goods." Obama's reality is what he appeared to be to anyone who carefully scrutinized him and his record. A glib speaker who is a front for an extreme left-leaning, big government philosophy, whose centerpiece is "wealth redistribution" from those who create wealth, through the government (that takes its cut) and into the hands of the least productive sector of American society--all in the name of being "fair." Worse yet, he is aided and abetted by accomplices in both houses of Congress, whose leaders are equally deluded--or more so. A large scale House-cleaning (pun intended) is what's needed. 2010 is the time to start. 2012 is when to finish the job.
WHAT IF? OBAMA CONVENES A JOB CREATION SUMMIT AND ALL THE ADVICE IS COUNTER TO HIS POLICIES?
You know the answer. He will ignore it, and politicize the issue. To create jobs, the government must "butt out" and lower taxes, reduce regulations, and let businesses compete, grow and realize that they can invest without fear that all the proceeds will be confiscated to support the growing government bureaucracy, and/or redistributed to those who contribute nothing, but are "needy." Even extreme left wing economists like Paul Krugman are smart enough to see that the current approach is not working. He's suggesting "new approaches," and while they are still misguided, they are getting closer to the right approach. The chart below shows how wrong the current approach has been. This has been revealed over and over, going back to FDR's mistakes. But "those who do not learn from history are destined to repeat its mistakes."
WHAT IF? CAR COMPANIES ACTUALLY WISE UP—DROP EXCESSIVE BRANDS & MODELS, SHED EXCESS CAPACITY & UAW EMPLOYEES
I knew a former GM senior executive (former CEO Roger Smith's strategic planning director), and he told me in 1992 that GM had too many car brands and models for its market share--and that was 17 years ago. What happened in the ensuing two decades? Not much. Oldsmobile was shut down amidst much outcry and financial impacts. A long time ago, I reported that the entire auto industry was proliferating models at a huge rate, far faster than either innovation or market needs dictated. The result: too many different models, too much complexity, too many plants, too many dealers, too little growth and far too little profit. What happened as a result of this information? Absolutely nothing.
Alan Mulally of Ford came from "outside the car industry" and saw it clearly. He started pruning ahead of the pack. GM is doing it with a government "gun to its head." Chrysler is dying and nearly dead, and Fiat will salvage only bits and pieces. The rest is gone--it is a "dead man walking." Even Toyota, Honda and Hyundai (the new Big Three?) are pruning products--as they should. No companies I know have "Unmarketing Depts." but they need them to clear out the deadwood, and make room for real innovation--not more proliferation. Unfortunately, the result of "cutting capacity of all kinds" will be shedding more jobs--in both factories, at suppliers, and in dealerships. There is no other option.
WHAT IF? THE PRESIDENT IS DECEIVING US AGAIN: EMPLOYMENT LANGUISHES & A RECOVERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN--AT BEST?
In two words, "not yet!" Consider the chart below. Hours (employment) continue to drop. By the time you are reading this, TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT OF ALL KINDS IN THE USA WILL BE 18%. There will be no meaningful recovery until employment stops dropping and starts to reverse. Before that happens, employers will increase work-week hours, and be slow to rehire people they just cut. The true recovery won't happen as long as Americans are unemployed, underemployed and working part time. Year over year gains will create an illusion of growth, but if comparisons go back to pre-collapse time frames, there is no recovery. IT WILL TAKE 7-10 YEARS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT TO RETURN TO 2007 LEVELS.
—ADVISERS ADVISE--BUT IF THE "LEADER" ISN'T WISE ENOUGH TO TAKE THE ADVICE...
President's Economic Team Knows Better And Should Be Allowed To Restore Sanity
By MIKE COSGROVE
Posted 11/10/2009 07:53 PM ET
Volcker, Romer and Summers: Silent as the dollar collapses, oil and gold surge, and growth-inhibiting policies such as higher taxes and cap-and-trade...View Enlarged Image
Gold prices near $1,100 an ounce are a prelude to what is ahead if the Obama administration and Congress do not soon restore fiscal integrity.
Investors at the margin are slowly moving to purchase gold as well as oil. Concerns about an eventual U.S. sovereign debt downgrade are starting to make the rounds. As those concerns turn into fears one may see a collapse in the value of the dollar and a rush into gold, oil, other commodities and currencies of other countries.
A doubling in gold and oil prices over the next year and a return to recession is feasible and perhaps likely if the policy portfolio of this administration doesn't undergo a radical change. Unemployment is over 10% and may move higher. Unemployment hit 10.8% in December 1982.
Everyone knows what works to bring down unemployment — policies aimed at encouraging economic growth. Instead of policies to encourage economic growth, the administration and Congress are pushing for large tax hikes on individual taxpayers and businesses in the packages of national health care and cap-and-trade.
There may be an additional 8% payroll tax on small businesses that do not provide health care and a tax on individuals who choose not to buy insurance. The proposed health care plans are recipes to force businesses out of business and push up the unemployment rate. There are already over 15 million people out of work.
The policy focus should be on reducing costs for businesses so they can become more competitive in this global economy and hire more workers. A lower-tax-rate environment would encourage more people to start businesses. The administration is pushing precisely the wrong policy prescription for the U.S. economy in this highly competitive global economy.
The federal deficit for the past fiscal year was $1.4 trillion, and OMB estimates the cumulative deficit at $9 trillion for the next 10 years. Everyone knows that is an understatement of the cumulative deficit with the current wrongheaded policy prescription.
—Paul Volcker, an adviser to President Barack Obama, was Federal Reserve chairman in the 1980s as unemployment peaked. He knows and understands the policies needed to bring the unemployment rate down. Silence from him.
—Larry Summers was an adviser to President Bill Clinton during the 1990s, when the economy boomed. He knows that a smaller market share for federal government expenditures results in a bigger share for the private sector so the private sector can create more jobs. Silence from him.
—Christina Romer, chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, clearly understands how harmful it is to even think about tax hikes on businesses and individuals when over 15 million people are out of work and many more are underemployed. Silence from her.
The economic advisers all serve at the pleasure of the president, but pushing the exact opposite policies for an economy with high unemployment is quite a feat to stomach. In particular for Summers as he seems to have a habit of saying what he thinks. It could be that Dr. Summers decided to stick it out for the good of the economy knowing that if he leaves President Obama will find someone who encourages more federal spending and higher taxes.
Now that's a scary thought — Summers actually acting as a constraint on President Obama to rein in Obama's propensity to redistribute wealth, increase taxes and increase the market share of federal government outlays.
If the president wants to grow the economy and have a lower unemployment rate, he could make a public announcement that he is going to allow his three key economic advisers — Summers, Volcker and Romer — to develop a portfolio of economic policies to encourage economic growth and restore fiscal sanity. If the Obama took that step, the dollar would strengthen and gold and oil prices would tumble.
• Cosgrove, principal at Econoclast, a Dallas-based capital markets firm, is a professor at the University of Dallas.
© 2009 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved.
WHAT IF: IRAN SHOWS IT HAS NUKES AND THREATENS ISRAEL WITH THEM, AND ISRAEL RETALIATES WITH A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE?
President Obama is waffling over what to do in Afghanistan. He now realizes the magnitude of the mistake he made in characterizing it as the more important war to fight. That worked well in campaign rhetoric, but the Taliban and Afghanistan are going to be an order of magnitude harder to "defeat" (if that is even the right word) than the insurgencies in Iraq. Why? Because they are more entrenched, better organized, and actually are supported--or at least hidden, (although via fear) by many of the Pakistanis. Pakistani nukes are not far from where the Afghan/Pakistan conflicts are occurring. What if the Taliban gets its hands on a few nukes? What if Israel strikes at Iran and other countries gang up on Israel in retaliation?
Does anyone trust Barack Obama to know what to do? I certainly don't. Would John McCain have known? I'm not sure--at least he was a military veteran, as compared to a community organizer veteran. Perhaps Obama can go over there with his teleprompter and make some nice speeches. The US government official who is showing some appropriate toughness right now is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Don't bet against her opposing Obama for the 2012 Democratic presidential nomination--IF conditions are right. The lone voices of reason and sanity are holdover Defense Secretary Gates and the Generals, Petraeus, McChrystal, et. al. Will Obama listen even if the recommendations are not politically convenient?
WHAT IF? YOU HAVE TWO CANS OF LIQUID--GASOLINE AND WATER
Imagine you are Barack Obama, and have two cans, unmarked, one of which contains water, and the other contains gasoline. The economy is burning and you must grab a can. But you have no experience, and don't know that a simple test is to sniff the fumes to see which is which. So you grab one and dump it on the burning economy. Which outcome do you expect? Which do you get? Inexperience is a tough handicap. Theory is nice, but in practice, theory often fails because of the imperfections of the real world. Theoretically, Obama might try a little before "dumping the can," but if it is water, when he hoped for it to slow the fire, it has little effect. If it is gas, the fire grows, and might actually explode, following the stream back to the can, engulfing him in the blaze. All because he didn't know about the sniff test, and the risks of putting "just a little gasoline on a fire."
WHAT IF? THE WHITE HOUSE READS THIS
I truly worry about retribution from the White House "disinformation squad" for even writing this edition. That is a frightening thought for an American.
The EPA is still censoring and suppressing factual positions that global warming is a political hoax. Al Gore was the front man for the hoax and is getting famous and rich from it. But he was wrong. And now the wrong-headed Congress is preparing a Carbon Tax or a Cap & Trade, to solve a problem Americans can ill afford to solve. The economy is flailing, struggling, and deficits are astronomical and growing. So what is Obama and Congress working on? A health care reform that will cost another trillion dollars over the next decade, with no realistic idea how to pay for it other than raise the deficit and print more money.
WHAT IF? ANOTHER BUBBLE (or two) IS BUILDING, AND COLLAPSE COMING?
Nouriel Roubini, the well-known professor economics at the Stern School of Business at NYU predicted the last collapse as far back as 2005. He and others are pointing out that the recent stock market runoff is unwarranted. The past 5-6 extreme recovery runups have been followed by a significant collapse. The weakness of the US$ has caused "the mother of all carry trade" bubbles. (def: borrowing a low-yielding currency and lending a high-yielding currency to capitalize on the difference between the rates). If the dollar reverses its course (and suddenly gets stronger), this collapse will trigger another global economic crisis.
Worse yet is the commercial real estate bubble that is likely to burst any time soon. Drive around wherever you live and look at the vacant commercial properties. They are all over. Some are 10-15 years, passed by new, better locations. Others are brand new, but offer far too much capacity. There are loans backing all of these, and these loans will default too--just like residential mortgages did. Then there is the likelihood that the current administration will be forced to raise taxes--even if that is just letting the Bush tax cuts expire. This act alone could cause a double-dip recession in 2010-2011. Unemployment will average 10% in 2010--and 2011 may not be any better.
WHAT IF? YOU WANT TO SURVIVE THIS TIME AND COME OUT OK?
- Be frugal. Save, don't spend.
- Spend on necessities, not frivolities.
- Invest in "solid" future investments (those with plenty of cash), not risky ones.
- Preserve your cash.
- Innovate, both personally and in business, in what you do and where/how you do it. (Remember, proliferation is not innovation.)
- Get rid of unnecessary complexity--it costs a huge amount--most of the costs hidden.
- Bet on the best people, the best businesses, and use God-given common sense.
Those, I promise you are some of the best paths to short term survival and long term prosperity.
Best, John
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"The question is NOT: is there life after death, the question is: is there life before death". —Doug Dempsey
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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