THE ENTERPRISE--OUT WITH THE OLD, IN WITH THE NEW (YEAR, THAT IS)
There used to be a TV series entitled That Was The Week That Was (TWTWTW). I feel like "That was the year that was" and I'm glad it's over. Think about what we endured (or enjoyed) in 2009. Consider events and occurrences of 2009:
An economy in free fall--US & global.
Personal "nest eggs", many for retirees are demolished; interest rates so low that few retirees can live on earnings from reduced value investments.
A new president--our first "black" president--but totally inexperienced--says one thing; does another; tries to please everyone, and in doing so, pleases no one.
Skyrocketing unemployment--10% stated but more like 20% real
Plummeting real estate values--residential first, soon to be followed by commercial; massive over building
Democrats control both Houses of Congress--and make things worse, not better
Gov't spending at insane levels and no way to curtail it
New and old wars in faraway places--Iraq & Afghanistan, and new "cold wars" with Iran and others.
US debt reaching insane levels threatening the very fabric of our country in the future.
Swine Flu/H1N1 sweeps the world and the "media buzz" may be worse than the illness
New government intrusion, regulation and control of Americans' lives grows daily.
Giants of commerce and banking stumble, fall and are helped up by the government in return for free money and control
A stimulus bill is passed that no one read, that doesn't stimulate anything for long except the patronage and pet projects of Democratic lawmakers.
Obama's head of the Council of Economic Advisers (Ms. C. Romer) co-wrote the paper proving that gov't stimulus actually has a negative effect--what?
Political correctness runs amok, as no one is willing to call a "terrorist" or a "radical" by the correct moniker.
Job creation plans and summit are done by people who have never created a job except for government bureaucrats.
The global financial ruin was the consequences of greed, stupidity, irresponsibility, and terrible decisions/judgement by businesses, bankers, politicians, lenders and borrowers. The so-called "adults" that should have been in charge were hopelessly inadequate. We have tax evaders in the seats of power--still! Giethner at Treasury and Rangel in the House. If they were regular citizens they'd either have paid big fines (Geithner) or be in jail (Rangel).
There were a few success stories that emerged:
Ford's success without government funding, and being chosen by auto buyers because it made better, more desirable vehicles
The American soldier-who continues to serve, protect and defend America's freedom--even when sent to places where it seems pointless
HP's success in computers as it passed Dell--most laptops come fully equipped now, and can be sold as consumer products at retail
Apple's success proving that innovation and unique, high value products/services transcend low prices
There were some failures that continue to be big problems:
The Post Office is a dinosaur, being forced to do things and doing them poorly, losing money all along the way
Labor Unions who fail to see that they have outlived their value, and actually hurt the people they represent
Teachers who are so preoccupied with job security and liability avoidance that they fail to teach and develop student
Parents who completely abdicate their responsibility for raising their children and teaching them good values, etc.
The mighty stumbled:
Boeing and Airbus designed planes so big and complex they couldn't make them, either on time, or right...
Toyota is plagued by the disease that afflicted other large car companies--mistakes become BIG mistakes--recalling 4 mm cars!
Wal-Mart, Target, Macy's, et. al. suffered, but in different ways; Wal-Mart, tries to reinvent itself and struggles with "bigness"
Banks of all sizes and shapes failed and had to be restructured, acquired, propped up and bailed out...
Insurance giants like AIG paid the price for too much risk on too grand a scale...
Tiger Woods joins the ranks of many great athletes and noted entertainers whose bad behavior surpasses their performing excellence...
I am reminded of the old sayings "If it ain't broke, don't fix it," and "If you meddle with something long enough you will break it." Health care in the USA is "badly" in need of reform. The problem is the reform that is in process is being done "badly." Let's keep going...
Global Warming--hoax vs. reality--must be separated from "planetary pollution," using TRUE SCIENCE instead of politically motivated, false consensus. This was exposed by the East Anglia email debacle, in which fraudulent data-based "proofs" were being destroyed. CO2 is not the culprit. Other gases probably are.
Population shifts are hugely concerning. Exploding population in underdeveloped nations (Asia, Africa, Latin America); the declining population trends in developed countries (Japan, much of Europe, Russia, etc.), and the Muslim immigrant "takeover" of many countries, particularly in Europe, but spreading, as is the Latino (mostly Mexican) takeover of parts of the US--notably California.
The "churn" continues, and Schumpeter's creative destruction continues, amidst irresponsible behaviors of governments and leaders:
Gone soon: Pontiac, Saab, Saturn. Emigrated to Asia: Hummer, Volvo, Land Rover, Jaguar. Emigrated to Italy: Chrysler
Gone" Too many retailers to even name them all.
States in financial ruin or deep trouble: about a third of them, led by California and Illinois
China does a stimulus--and it works--what do they know that we don't?
Speaker Pelosi is so far out on the Left Wing, she should live out in the Pacific Ocean
Senate Majority Leader Reid's Las Vegas odds are getting worse and worse--just like his leadership
"Figures lie and liars figure" as the expected cost of new Health Care legislation is manipulated over and over
The attention span of Americans, perhaps everyone in the Internet era gets shorter and shorter--7 second sound bites and 140 character Tweets
Mainstream media becomes little more than a propaganda machine for one side or the other--who can you believe?
Blogs explode in number, with no "quality assurance" but lots of "free speech"
Our President made a series of mistakes that "rookies" in management and leadership positions typically make:
Try to do too many things at once--start a lot, get little done, confuse and overload everyone...
Throw money at problems--most of which are not solved, and the money is wasted...
Confuse delegation with abdication--and then when results are bad, blame those who did what was done...
Listen only to people who share the same viewpoint and disregard or disrespect those with conflicting views...
Tell everyone what they want to hear--then realize that what was said cannot happen--and do whatever...
Try to be "liked" by everyone--confusing being liked with being respected
Think that nice speeches and many public appearances actually change much or fix anything
A recovery is in the works--in the USA at least. The question is how long, how strong, and what can happen that might derail it. Job losses have gone down, but are still continuing. Inflation lurks as a prospect, but deflation is a current challenge that's much harder to manage. A weak dollar has propped up exports which help earnings of many multi-national companies. The stock markets appear over-valued as people desperately search for higher returns on what's left of their "nest eggs." Too many forget the risk of "bubbles" and may take on too much risk chasing short term, high returns--instead of safer, very low return investments. Nobody knows what 2010 holds for investors. Caution is the best policy, since losses are very hard to recoup.
THUS WE ENTER 2010--UNCERTAIN
December data says another 90,000 jobs (give or take a few) went away. Companies that cut people (and overhead) will be slow to rehire them or add back contracted services. This will continue to depress job growth, keep unemployment high (10%+) which will inevitably dampen consumer spending. Capital investments will be short term oriented, used to gain savings in the near term. Only the most visionary leaders will plan and invest for longer term growth, market positions and share gains.
PLAN FOR THE BEST, EXPECT THE WORST AND BE PREPARED FOR IT
That's the best policy. Be poised to "scramble" for available upside while protecting the downside. Listen, watch and respond to customer behaviors. Manage cash very carefully. Once spent, it is brutally hard to rebuild cash positions. Look for the niches with the riches. Aim with a "rifle" and not a "shotgun." Build competitive advantage, the best of which is based on having the best people. Quality, service, speed, low cost/high value and innovation will win (comparatively) in any year. Welcome to the new decade.
THE LAST WORDS: AL GORE--WHERE IS GLOBAL WARMING?
After watching the temperatures in South Florida plummet into the 30s for the past few nights, and predicted to drop into the 20's the next night or two, I wonder where Al Gore's global warming has gone. It is surreal to hear South Florida weather forecasts talk about "wind chills" in the teens! Perhaps "global warming" was deleted with the emails from the East Anglia Institute that said it was a manipulated hoax all along. I wonder if there is a "claw back" provision on Nobel Peace Prizes? Gore's is suspect. Tell the folks in the Dakotas about global warming with their -25 degree temps and -50 degree wind chills. Obama almost trashed his in the first 1/3 of his acceptance speech. Now, even he is talking about "war on al Qaeda" after the Christmas plane bomber debacle. If Obama can actually get the 16 intelligence branches of the USA to actually share information and "play together nicely" that might be his greatest accomplishment.(There are 16 admitted to and listed in public information--there are actually 4+/- more that are so deep undercover they aren't ever mentioned)
Best, John
Stay tuned for "The Revolution"--coming in 2010.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning, but without understanding." —Louis D. Brandeis
-----------------------------------------------------------
John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
There used to be a TV series entitled That Was The Week That Was (TWTWTW). I feel like "That was the year that was" and I'm glad it's over. Think about what we endured (or enjoyed) in 2009. Consider events and occurrences of 2009:
An economy in free fall--US & global.
Personal "nest eggs", many for retirees are demolished; interest rates so low that few retirees can live on earnings from reduced value investments.
A new president--our first "black" president--but totally inexperienced--says one thing; does another; tries to please everyone, and in doing so, pleases no one.
Skyrocketing unemployment--10% stated but more like 20% real
Plummeting real estate values--residential first, soon to be followed by commercial; massive over building
Democrats control both Houses of Congress--and make things worse, not better
Gov't spending at insane levels and no way to curtail it
New and old wars in faraway places--Iraq & Afghanistan, and new "cold wars" with Iran and others.
US debt reaching insane levels threatening the very fabric of our country in the future.
Swine Flu/H1N1 sweeps the world and the "media buzz" may be worse than the illness
New government intrusion, regulation and control of Americans' lives grows daily.
Giants of commerce and banking stumble, fall and are helped up by the government in return for free money and control
A stimulus bill is passed that no one read, that doesn't stimulate anything for long except the patronage and pet projects of Democratic lawmakers.
Obama's head of the Council of Economic Advisers (Ms. C. Romer) co-wrote the paper proving that gov't stimulus actually has a negative effect--what?
Political correctness runs amok, as no one is willing to call a "terrorist" or a "radical" by the correct moniker.
Job creation plans and summit are done by people who have never created a job except for government bureaucrats.
The global financial ruin was the consequences of greed, stupidity, irresponsibility, and terrible decisions/judgement by businesses, bankers, politicians, lenders and borrowers. The so-called "adults" that should have been in charge were hopelessly inadequate. We have tax evaders in the seats of power--still! Giethner at Treasury and Rangel in the House. If they were regular citizens they'd either have paid big fines (Geithner) or be in jail (Rangel).
There were a few success stories that emerged:
Ford's success without government funding, and being chosen by auto buyers because it made better, more desirable vehicles
The American soldier-who continues to serve, protect and defend America's freedom--even when sent to places where it seems pointless
HP's success in computers as it passed Dell--most laptops come fully equipped now, and can be sold as consumer products at retail
Apple's success proving that innovation and unique, high value products/services transcend low prices
There were some failures that continue to be big problems:
The Post Office is a dinosaur, being forced to do things and doing them poorly, losing money all along the way
Labor Unions who fail to see that they have outlived their value, and actually hurt the people they represent
Teachers who are so preoccupied with job security and liability avoidance that they fail to teach and develop student
Parents who completely abdicate their responsibility for raising their children and teaching them good values, etc.
The mighty stumbled:
Boeing and Airbus designed planes so big and complex they couldn't make them, either on time, or right...
Toyota is plagued by the disease that afflicted other large car companies--mistakes become BIG mistakes--recalling 4 mm cars!
Wal-Mart, Target, Macy's, et. al. suffered, but in different ways; Wal-Mart, tries to reinvent itself and struggles with "bigness"
Banks of all sizes and shapes failed and had to be restructured, acquired, propped up and bailed out...
Insurance giants like AIG paid the price for too much risk on too grand a scale...
Tiger Woods joins the ranks of many great athletes and noted entertainers whose bad behavior surpasses their performing excellence...
I am reminded of the old sayings "If it ain't broke, don't fix it," and "If you meddle with something long enough you will break it." Health care in the USA is "badly" in need of reform. The problem is the reform that is in process is being done "badly." Let's keep going...
Global Warming--hoax vs. reality--must be separated from "planetary pollution," using TRUE SCIENCE instead of politically motivated, false consensus. This was exposed by the East Anglia email debacle, in which fraudulent data-based "proofs" were being destroyed. CO2 is not the culprit. Other gases probably are.
Population shifts are hugely concerning. Exploding population in underdeveloped nations (Asia, Africa, Latin America); the declining population trends in developed countries (Japan, much of Europe, Russia, etc.), and the Muslim immigrant "takeover" of many countries, particularly in Europe, but spreading, as is the Latino (mostly Mexican) takeover of parts of the US--notably California.
The "churn" continues, and Schumpeter's creative destruction continues, amidst irresponsible behaviors of governments and leaders:
Gone soon: Pontiac, Saab, Saturn. Emigrated to Asia: Hummer, Volvo, Land Rover, Jaguar. Emigrated to Italy: Chrysler
Gone" Too many retailers to even name them all.
States in financial ruin or deep trouble: about a third of them, led by California and Illinois
China does a stimulus--and it works--what do they know that we don't?
Speaker Pelosi is so far out on the Left Wing, she should live out in the Pacific Ocean
Senate Majority Leader Reid's Las Vegas odds are getting worse and worse--just like his leadership
"Figures lie and liars figure" as the expected cost of new Health Care legislation is manipulated over and over
The attention span of Americans, perhaps everyone in the Internet era gets shorter and shorter--7 second sound bites and 140 character Tweets
Mainstream media becomes little more than a propaganda machine for one side or the other--who can you believe?
Blogs explode in number, with no "quality assurance" but lots of "free speech"
Our President made a series of mistakes that "rookies" in management and leadership positions typically make:
Try to do too many things at once--start a lot, get little done, confuse and overload everyone...
Throw money at problems--most of which are not solved, and the money is wasted...
Confuse delegation with abdication--and then when results are bad, blame those who did what was done...
Listen only to people who share the same viewpoint and disregard or disrespect those with conflicting views...
Tell everyone what they want to hear--then realize that what was said cannot happen--and do whatever...
Try to be "liked" by everyone--confusing being liked with being respected
Think that nice speeches and many public appearances actually change much or fix anything
A recovery is in the works--in the USA at least. The question is how long, how strong, and what can happen that might derail it. Job losses have gone down, but are still continuing. Inflation lurks as a prospect, but deflation is a current challenge that's much harder to manage. A weak dollar has propped up exports which help earnings of many multi-national companies. The stock markets appear over-valued as people desperately search for higher returns on what's left of their "nest eggs." Too many forget the risk of "bubbles" and may take on too much risk chasing short term, high returns--instead of safer, very low return investments. Nobody knows what 2010 holds for investors. Caution is the best policy, since losses are very hard to recoup.
THUS WE ENTER 2010--UNCERTAIN
December data says another 90,000 jobs (give or take a few) went away. Companies that cut people (and overhead) will be slow to rehire them or add back contracted services. This will continue to depress job growth, keep unemployment high (10%+) which will inevitably dampen consumer spending. Capital investments will be short term oriented, used to gain savings in the near term. Only the most visionary leaders will plan and invest for longer term growth, market positions and share gains.
PLAN FOR THE BEST, EXPECT THE WORST AND BE PREPARED FOR IT
That's the best policy. Be poised to "scramble" for available upside while protecting the downside. Listen, watch and respond to customer behaviors. Manage cash very carefully. Once spent, it is brutally hard to rebuild cash positions. Look for the niches with the riches. Aim with a "rifle" and not a "shotgun." Build competitive advantage, the best of which is based on having the best people. Quality, service, speed, low cost/high value and innovation will win (comparatively) in any year. Welcome to the new decade.
THE LAST WORDS: AL GORE--WHERE IS GLOBAL WARMING?
After watching the temperatures in South Florida plummet into the 30s for the past few nights, and predicted to drop into the 20's the next night or two, I wonder where Al Gore's global warming has gone. It is surreal to hear South Florida weather forecasts talk about "wind chills" in the teens! Perhaps "global warming" was deleted with the emails from the East Anglia Institute that said it was a manipulated hoax all along. I wonder if there is a "claw back" provision on Nobel Peace Prizes? Gore's is suspect. Tell the folks in the Dakotas about global warming with their -25 degree temps and -50 degree wind chills. Obama almost trashed his in the first 1/3 of his acceptance speech. Now, even he is talking about "war on al Qaeda" after the Christmas plane bomber debacle. If Obama can actually get the 16 intelligence branches of the USA to actually share information and "play together nicely" that might be his greatest accomplishment.(There are 16 admitted to and listed in public information--there are actually 4+/- more that are so deep undercover they aren't ever mentioned)
Best, John
Stay tuned for "The Revolution"--coming in 2010.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning, but without understanding." —Louis D. Brandeis
-----------------------------------------------------------
John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
Comments