FIRST, A FEW SHORT TAKES:
--THE RECOVERY: A JUDGMENT CALL
Tone down the celebrating, but a bit of a recovery seemed imminent in Jan. -Mar., and Easter came early this year. Then April came and the consumer realized that the spending level in the 1Q was not sustainable, because jobs are still not growing much at all. There is still a lot of pain in housing; there is still too much leverage; Europe is proving for the entire world that a secular socialistic society is a lousy way to run a country. That is where our government is forcing America. Smart companies will plan on a luke-warm, spotty recovery, and rejoice if it is any better than that.
PREDICTIONS AND NEAR CERTAINTIES
Unemployment will stay at or near 10% reported which means 15-17% real for most of all of 2010, and probably into 2011. Remember, with over 100,000 new work force entrants every month, job growth must absorb them before replacing the millions of lost jobs. Best guess, is that IF job growth continues at or near record recovery pace for 5 years, unemployment will get "down" to 7-8% reported which is 12-13% real. Small businesses are back creating jobs now (that's good), but the recent Health Care bill and nearly any other Democratic "cram-down" (Like Cap & Trade, EFCA, new EPA rules,etc.) will dampen that growth.
Worst of all, IF the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire for 2011, it will be a "tax increase"--and a big one, for nearly all Americans. Unless the 2010 elections reverse control of the House and Senate, that's what will happen. That big tax hike will dampen the best of recoveries. As far as Afghanistan goes, the Taliban will keep up symbolic "war-like" behavior, but when winter comes, they will hibernate and await the Obama announced 2011 troop withdrawals. Then they'll reassert themselves and retake Afghanistan before Obama leaves the White House after 2012 elections. He will leave messes in his wake in every area of America--deficits at record levels, job killing new laws, new taxes, more government interference in every part of American life--and states that will be insolvent thanks to unfunded or underfunded Federal mandates. That's Change You Can Believe In!
---THE MUSHROOM REPORT: From my old Illinois classmate, Joe Volpe: "TO ALL: NOT A GOOD YEAR FOR MUSHROOMS. ONLY 45LBS. I WALKED 150 MILES. NORMAL YEAR 100 TO 150 LBS" This could be a leading indicator that mushrooms and mushroom dishes will go up in price. Lots of other things will go up in price too--not the least of which is oil after the big spill kills offshore drilling around the USA for a long time.
--THE ROADKILL REPORT: Quite a few years ago, my old friend Ron Loveless worked for Walmart (he started Sam's Club in those days as its first GM). Ronnie noticed that Arkansas was big "chicken country" (home to Tyson), and that a lot of chickens roamed astray and became "road kill." Other animals also became road kill, but a freshly hit chicken could go "into the pot" for dinner. He theorized that the better the economy, the less likely people were to stop and pick up road kill (chickens or otherwise)--and vice versa. In a book he has in progress, he goes into lots more detail. My guess is that last year, the roads were "picked pretty clean." We'll see if the "road kill report" recognizes whether a recovery is really underway.YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK--BEING REDISTRIBUTED
The web link below will allow you to check how much of the stimulus bill coming to your state has arrived, and what the imagined (?) job creation impact has been. Funny thing about this government largesse. The money comes from...(where)? From your tax dollars of course. And it is redistributed where? Wherever the Democratic politicians wanted to send it--probably to their own states or those of their crony buddies. http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/home.aspx
GIVE ME A FISH OR TEACH ME TO FISH?
These "one time" handouts will add some stimulus, but nothing like what would happen if private enterprise generated the wealth and reinvested it. It's sort of like the old saying, "Give me a fish, feed me today; teach me to fish and feed me forever." The stimulus is the government's way of giving people their "fish" for today, in hopes they'll get reelected to do it again and again. Of course any government program is a bit inefficient even at redistributing wealth. If you start with 100 cents on the dollar, you can bet a big chunk of it is wasted on government bureaucracy and only a fraction of the 100 cents ever gets redistributed. Welcome to the new Obama economy where being dependent on the government is the new meaning of HOPE AND CHANGE.
FIFTEEN POINTS FROM ONE OF THE MOST INSIGHTFUL JOURNALISTS AROUND
OPINION: DECLARATIONS MAY 1, 2010 By PEGGY NOONAN
The Big Alienation—Uncontrolled borders and Washington's lack of self-control.
We are at a remarkable moment.
[1]--We have an open, 2,000-mile border to our south, and the entity with the power to enforce the law and impose safety and order will not do it. Wall Street collapsed, taking Main Street's money with it,
[2]--and the government can't really figure out what to do about it because the government itself was deeply implicated in the crash,
[3]--and both political parties are full of people whose political careers have been made possible by Wall Street contributions.
[4]--Meanwhile we pass huge laws, bills so comprehensive, omnibus and transformative that no one knows what's in them and no one—literally, no one—knows how exactly they will be executed or interpreted. Citizens search for new laws online, pore over them at night, and come away knowing no more than they did before they typed "dot-gov." It is not that no one's in control. Washington is full of people who insist they're in control and who go to great lengths to display their power.
[5]--It's that no one takes responsibility and authority. Washington daily delivers to the people two stark and utterly conflicting messages: "We control everything" and "You're on your own."
All this contributes to a deep and growing alienation between the people of America and the government of America in Washington. This is not the old, conservative and long-lampooned "I don't trust gummint" attitude of the 1950s, '60s and '70s.
[6]--It's something new, or rather something so much more broadly and fully evolved that it constitutes something new. The right never trusted the government, but now the middle doesn't. I asked a campaigner for Hillary Clinton recently where her sturdy, pantsuited supporters had gone. They didn't seem part of the Obama brigades. "Some of them are at the tea party," she said.
[7]--None of this happened overnight. It is, most recently, the result of two wars that were supposed to be cakewalks, Katrina, the crash,
[8]--and the phenomenon of a federal government that seemed less and less competent attempting to do more and more by passing bigger and bigger laws.
[9]--Add to this states on the verge of bankruptcy,
[10]--the looming debt crisis of the federal government,
[11]--and the likelihood of ever-rising taxes. Shake it all together, and you have the makings of the big alienation. Alienation is often followed by full-blown antagonism, and antagonism by breakage.
Which brings us to Arizona and its much-criticized attempt to institute a law aimed at controlling its own border with Mexico.
[12]--It is doing this because the federal government won't, and because Arizonans have a crisis on their hands, areas on the border where criminal behavior flourishes, where there have been kidnappings, murders and gang violence. If the law is abusive, it will be determined quickly enough, in the courts. In keeping with recent tradition, they were reading parts of the law aloud on cable the other night, with bright and sincere people completely disagreeing on the meaning of the words they were reading. No one knows how the law will be executed or interpreted.
Every state and region has its own facts and experience. In New York, legal and illegal immigrants keep the city running: They work hard jobs with brutal hours, rip off no one on Wall Street, and do not crash the economy. They are generally considered among the good guys. I'm not sure New Yorkers can fairly judge the situation in Arizona, nor Arizonans the situation in New York.
But the larger point is that Arizona is moving forward because the government in Washington has completely abdicated its responsibility. For 10 years—at least—through two administrations, Washington deliberately did nothing to ease the crisis on the borders because politicians calculated that an air of mounting crisis would spur mounting support for what Washington thought was appropriate reform—i.e., reform that would help the Democratic and Republican parties.
The establishments of the American political parties, and the media, are full of people who think concern about illegal immigration is a mark of racism. If you were Freud you might say, "How odd that's where their minds so quickly go, how strange they're so eager to point an accusing finger. Could they be projecting onto others their own, heavily defended-against inner emotions?" But let's not do Freud, he's too interesting. Maybe they're just smug and sanctimonious.
The American president has the power to control America's borders if he wants to, but George W. Bush and Barack Obama did not and do not want to, and for the same reason, and we all know what it is. The fastest-growing demographic in America is the Hispanic vote, and if either party cracks down on illegal immigration, it risks losing that vote for generations.
[13]--But while the Democrats worry about the prospects of the Democrats and the Republicans about the well-being of the Republicans, who worries about America?
No one. Which the American people have noticed, and which adds to the dangerous alienation—actually it's at the heart of the alienation—of the age.
In the past four years, I have argued in this space that nothing can or should be done, no new federal law passed, until the border itself is secure. That is the predicate, the common sense first step. Once existing laws are enforced and the border made peaceful, everyone in the country will be able to breathe easier and consider, without an air of clamor and crisis, what should be done next. What might that be? How about relax, see where we are, and absorb. Pass a small, clear law—say, one granting citizenship to all who serve two years in the armed forces—and then go have a Coke. Not everything has to be settled right away.
[14]--Only controlling the border has to be settled right away. Instead, our national establishments deliberately allow the crisis to grow and fester, ignoring public unrest and amusing themselves by damning anyone's attempt to deal with the problem they fear to address.
[15]--Why does the federal government do this? Because so many within it are stupid and unimaginative and don't trust the American people. Which of course the American people have noticed.
The American people fear they are losing their place and authority in the daily, unwinding drama of American history. They feel increasingly alienated from their government. And alienation, again, is often followed by deep animosity, and animosity by the breaking up of things. If our leaders were farsighted not only for themselves but for the country, they would fix the border.
Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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THIS NEXT ONE IS LONG TOO--AND WORTH THE TIME TO READ IT.
" I'M TIRED AT 63 "
Robert A. Hall is the actor who plays the coroner on CSI if you watch that show.
This should be required reading for every man, woman and child in the United States of America.
"I'm 63 and Im Tired"
by Robert A. Hall
I'm 63. Except for one semester in college when jobs were scarce and a six-month period when I was between jobs, but job-hunting every day, I've worked, hard, since I was 18. Despite some health challenges, I still put in 50-hour weeks, and haven't called in sick in seven or eight years. I make a good salary, but I didn't inherit my job or my income, and I worked to get where I am. Given the economy, there's no retirement in sight, and I'm tired. Very tired.
I'm tired of being told that I have to "spread the wealth" to people who don't have my work ethic. I'm tired of being told the government will take the money I earned, by force if necessary, and give it to people too lazy to earn it.
I'm tired of being told that I have to pay more taxes to "keep people in their homes." Sure, if they lost their jobs or got sick, I'm willing to help. But if they bought McMansions at three times the price of our paid-off, $250,000 condo, on one-third of my salary, then let the left-wing Congress-critters who passed Fannie and Freddie and the Community Reinvestment Act that created the bubble help them with their own money.I'm tired of being told how bad America is by left-wing millionaires like Michael Moore, George Soros and Hollywood Entertainers who live in luxury because of the opportunities America offers. In thirty years, if they get their way, the United States will have the economy of Zimbabwe, the freedom of the press of China, the crime and violence of Mexico, the tolerance for Christian people of Iran, and the freedom of speech of Venezuela.
I'm tired of being told that Islam is a "Religion of Peace," when every day I can read dozens of stories of Muslim men killing their sisters, wives and daughters for their family "honor"; of Muslims rioting over some slight offense; of Muslims murdering Christian and Jews because they aren't "believers"; of Muslims burning schools for girls; of Muslims stoning teenage rape victims to death for "adultery"; of Muslims mutilating the genitals of little girls; all in the name of Allah, because the Qur'an and Shari'a law tells them to.
I'm tired of being told that "race doesn't matter" in the post-racial world of Obama, when it's all that matters in affirmative action jobs, lower college admission and graduation standards for minorities (harming them the most), government contract set-asides, tolerance for the ghetto culture of violence and fatherless children that hurts minorities more than anyone, and in the appointment of U.S. Senators from Illinois.
I think it's very cool that we have a black president and that a black child is doing her homework at the desk where Lincoln wrote the Emancipation Proclamation. I just wish the black president was Condi Rice, or someone who believes more in freedom and the individual and less arrogantly of an all-knowing government.I'm tired of a news media that thinks Bush's fundraising and inaugural expenses were obscene, but that think Obama's, at triple the cost, were wonderful; that thinks Bush exercising daily was a waste of presidential time, but Obama exercising is a great example for the public to control weight and stress; that picked over every line of Bush's military records, but never demanded that Kerry release his; that slammed Palin, with two years as governor, for being too inexperienced for VP, but touted Obama with three years as senator as potentially the best president ever. Wonder why people are dropping their subscriptions or switching to Fox News? Get a clue. I didn't vote for Bush in 2000, but the media and Kerry drove me to his camp in 2004.
I'm tired of being told that out of "tolerance for other cultures" we must let Saudi Arabia use our oil money to fund mosques and madrassa Islamic schools to preach hate in America, while no American group is allowed to fund a church, synagogue or religious school in Saudi Arabia to teach love and tolerance.
I'm tired of being told I must lower my living standard to fight global warming, which no one is allowed to debate. My wife and I live in a two-bedroom apartment and carpool together five miles to our jobs. We also own a three-bedroom condo where our daughter and granddaughter live. Our carbon footprint is about 5% of Al Gore's, and if you're greener than Gore, you're green enough.
I'm tired of being told that drug addicts have a disease, and I must help support and treat them, and pay for the damage they do. Did a giant germ rush out of a dark alley, grab them, and stuff white powder up their noses while they tried to fight it off? I don't think Gay people choose to be Gay, but I damn sure think druggies chose to take drugs. And I'm tired of harassment from cool people treating me like a freak when I tell them I never tried marijuana.I'm tired of illegal aliens being called "undocumented workers," especially the ones who aren't working, but are living on welfare or crime. What's next? Calling drug dealers, "Undocumented Pharmacists"? And, no, I'm not against Hispanics. Most of them are Catholic, and it's been a few hundred years since Catholics wanted to kill me for my religion. I'm willing to fast track for citizenship any Hispanic person, who can speak English, doesn't have a criminal record and who is self-supporting without family on welfare, or who serves honorably for three years in our military.... Those are the citizens we need.
I'm tired of latte liberals and journalists, who would never wear the uniform of the Republic themselves, or let their entitlement-handicapped kids near a recruiting station, trashing our military. They and their kids can sit at home, never having to make split-second decisions under life and death circumstances, and bad mouth better people than themselves. Do bad things happen in war? You bet. Do our troops sometimes misbehave? Sure. Does this compare with the atrocities that were the policy of our enemies for the last fifty years and still are? Not even close.
So here's the deal. I'll let myself be subjected to all the humiliation and abuse that was heaped on terrorists at Abu Ghraib or Gitmo, and the critics can let themselves be subject to captivity by the Muslims, who tortured and beheaded Daniel Pearl in Pakistan, or the Muslims who tortured and murdered Marine Lt. Col. William Higgins in Lebanon, or the Muslims who ran the blood-spattered Al Qaeda torture rooms our troops found in Iraq, or the Muslims who cut off the heads of schoolgirls in Indonesia, because the girls were Christian. Then we'll compare notes. British and American soldiers are the only troops in history that civilians came to for help and handouts, instead of hiding from in fear.
I'm tired of people telling me that their party has a corner on virtue and the other party has a corner on corruption. Read the papers; bums are bipartisan. And I'm tired of people telling me we need bipartisanship. I live in Illinois , where the "Illinois Combine" of Democrats has worked to loot the public for years. Not to mention the tax cheats in Obama's cabinet.I'm tired of hearing wealthy athletes, entertainers and politicians of both parties talking about innocent mistakes, stupid mistakes or youthful mistakes, when we all know they think their only mistake was getting caught. I'm tired of people with a sense of entitlement, rich or poor.
Speaking of poor, I'm tired of hearing people with air-conditioned homes, color TVs and two cars called poor. The majority of Americans didn't have that in 1970, but we didn't know we were "poor." The poverty pimps have to keep changing the definition of poor to keep the dollars flowing.I'm real tired of people who don't take responsibility for their lives and actions. I'm tired of hearing them blame the government, or discrimination or big-whatever for their problems.
Yes, I'm damn tired. But I'm also glad to be 63. Because, mostly, I'm not going to have to see the world these people are making. I'm just sorry for my granddaughter.
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Robert A. Hall is a Marine Vietnam veteran who served five terms in the Massachusetts State Senate.
There is no way this will be widely publicized, unless each of us sends it on! This is your chance to make a difference.
"We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality." -- Ayn Rand
NOTE: THE ABOVE WAS VERIFIED ON SNOPES AS CORRECTLY ATTRIBUTEDTHERE ARE ONLY A FEW THINGS WE CAN DO ABOUT THESE PROBLEMS
The biggest one is to VOTE and to get out the vote--but most of all to select, meet and assure ourselves that we know who we are voting into Washington, DC. The majority of voters in this country was deceived into electing a manufactured President with NO experience, with NO background that he'd share with Americans, and with the little we did discover--found that he was NO WAY the kind of person he was "acting like." HIs campaign promises and rhetoric exceed the best (worst) lies and misleading statements I've heard in my lifetime.
ARE YOU READY TO THROW THE BUMS OUT IN 2010...AND AGAIN IN 2012?
Nothing will get much better with Obama in the White House. All we can hope is to elect enough sensible, fiscally responsible, and motivated members of Congress to slow down his avalanche of misguided laws, spending, foreign policies and worst of all appointees--who will each do great harm in their own right.
WE, THE PEOPLE, MUST STAND UP AND BE COUNTED. IT IS NOW JUST UNDER 6 MO. UNTIL WE CAN. THE CAMPAIGN LIES ARE ALREADY STARTING HERE IN OHIO. I IMAGINE THEY ARE IN YOUR STATE TOO.
SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT. LEARN THE FACTS AND POSITIONS TO TAKE. IT'S OUR COUNTRY; LET'S ACT LIKE IT.
BEST, JOHN
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"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world: indeed, it's the only thing that ever has." Margaret Mead
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John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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