THE ENTERPRISE--EVIDENCE FROM ALL OVER THE PLACE
Since I am just back from some R & R, I had a lot of reading to catch up on. As luck would have it, the Columbus Dispatch and WSJ came through with some great insights, and friends provided the rest. (Sorry about so much reading--but it's all good stuff.)
THE RECOVERY IS LOOKING "SPOTTY"...BUT CONTINUING
Jobs were created. That's good news. Unemployment was up to 9.9% (the real number is closer to 17%), which is technically bad news--because people who had given up looking for work are back looking again. Retail recovered a bit and then the early Easter, which helped March numbers, hurt the April numbers. Inventory rebuilding is nearly complete--as far as it will go--because caution is the description for attitudes on inventory. Target and Walmart both limped in with weak April numbers, but Costco had a robust gain as did Macy's and Nordstrom. The recent stock market gyrations and cataclysmic drop last week will make everyone more nervous. Conclusion--a slow, erratic recovery is the safest bet to plan on. if things heat up, scramble to capitalize.
PRODUCTIVITY IS COMING BACK DOWN TO EARTH
This goes along with some job creation and the last stages of a recession, and early stages of a recovery. Employers have squeezed nearly all the juice out of their current work force. New hiring usually depresses productivity numbers and this time will be no exception. The big issue this time is that many of the jobs that went away will never come back. That means chronically unemployed people in certain classes--manufacturing being one. Construction has a long, long way to come back, so many of those jobs are "gone" for the foreseeable future too.
CHINA--LABOR SHORTAGES AND THE YUAN
China's largest problems right now are containing some of its overheated sectors and finding enough skilled workers to staff its most prominent and best situated industries. There are lots of people further inland, but skills are weak or worse and infrastructure is uneven. Low wage jobs moving to VietNam and Indonesia will find that there are not enough people and too little industrial base to absorb China's overflow. Expect some interesting challenges for China sourcing in the next year. It's no longer so simple--and requires people with real skills, knowhow and experience to do it properly. That includes "certification" of the products before they ship too.
IF WE DON'T ELECT SOME NEW LEADERSHIP IN OUR COUNTRY--AND FAST—I MEAN STATE AND FEDERAL THERE WON'T BE MUCH OF THE AMERICA I KNEW FOR THE PAST 6+ DECADES LEFT. JUST FIXING THESE ENORMOUS MISTAKES WILL BE A DAUNTING TASK.
EUROPEAN LIFE SYTLE IS FALLING APART--BEING ADOPTED IN THE USA BY OBAMA & DEMS/LIBERALS
Europeans have long been cited for 'knowing how to enjoy life." Europe is a prototypical socialistic/statist system. Take 6 week "holidays" in late summer, shutting down businesses--so what? They work 35 hour weeks, maybe--so what? Retirement age is in the low 50's--so what? The problem is that the European economic system is failing--that's what! Look at what's happening in Greece, (and several other southern European countries are right behind it--Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc.). The EU has now proposed that Greece privatize its health insurance--at the same time the US Congress/President Obama are pushing America in the other direction. Worst of all is the proposal that the primarily US funded IMF contribute about $150B to bail out Greece. A bunch of that money comes from Americans! Write your Representative and Senators and complain!
CAP & TRADE IS A HIDDEN TAX BASED ON A HOAX--TRASH IT!
Global warming reports used by Al Gore and created by IPCC are now revealed to be filled with unscientific "consensus." In other words, there is no concrete proof that human activity, and especially the production of CO2 is the cause if catastrophic global warming. Thus there is no credible reason for Cap & Trade. Granted, we should stop fouling our planet with refuse and toxic emissions--but that is not what Cap & Trade was all about. We must resist this hoax drive campaign to add taxes and cripple our American industries. Write your Representative and Senators and complain!
THE FOX IS GUARDING THE HEN-HOUSE--BUT A "DEVOUT" FOX!
Subject: Fw: Time is growing short--Email received from a friend who is a retired Navy Admiral: Well, boys and girls, today the fox is guarding the hen house. The wolves will be herding the sheep. Obama appointed two devout Muslims to home land security posts. Doesn't this make you feel safer already? Obama and Janet Napolitano appointed Arif Alikhan, a devout Muslim, as Assistant Secretary for Policy Development. DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano swore-in Kareem Shora, a devout Muslim, who was born in Damascus, Syria, as ADC National Executive Director as a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC).
NOTE: Has anyone ever heard a new government official being identified as a devout Catholic, a devout Jew or a devout Protestant....? Just wondering. Devout Muslims being appointed to critical Homeland Security positions? Doesn't this make you feel safer already?? That should make our home land much safer, huh! Was it not "Devout Muslim men" that flew planes into U.S. buildings 8 years ago? Was it not a Devout Muslim who killed 13 at Fort Hood? Write your Representative and Senators and complain!
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES PAY AND BENEFITS ARE THE LARGEST FACTOR BEHIND STATE FINANCIAL CRISES
Gary Shilling offers sound advice on how we must rein in these costs, and what are some of the most palatable, and least disruptive approaches to do this. Without action, many states will drown in red ink and become financially bankrupt or worse. Few politicians have the nerve to tackle these problems. Our job is to find those who do, and get them elected. Contact both your state and Federal Representative and Senators and complain!
====================
OPINION--APRIL 29, 2010
How to Tackle Government Labor Costs—Pay freezes, two-tier wages, pension reform—nothing should be off the table
By A. GARY SHILLING
Life is tough and getting tougher for state and local governments. Revenues from personal and corporate income and sales taxes are down and property taxes are weakening. Budget deficits are jumping, and states now issue debt to fund routine expenditures. Meanwhile, pension obligations are underfunded to the tune of $1 trillion, according to the Pew Center on the States. States on average have set aside just 7.1% of retiree health care and other nonpension benefits, and 20 states have reserved nothing.
Costs remain stubbornly high, propelled over the last decade by rising municipal employment. Since the Great Recession started in December 2007, private payrolls have dropped 7.4%, but state and local jobs are essentially unchanged, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Some governments are making service cuts, but these are wholly inadequate, and voters are fiercely resistant to tax increases. The inescapable conclusion: Labor costs, which at $1.1 trillion in 2008 account for half of state and local spending according to the Cato Institute, simply must come down. And there is plenty of reason why they should. Consider:
Years ago, there was an informal "social contract"—public employees generally received lower wages than private-sector workers, and in return they got earlier retirement and generous pensions, allowing them to catch up. That arrangement has long since gone by the boards. The result is a remarkable trend. State and local government employees for years have received pay increases in excess of inflation, and BLS figures show they now have wages that are 34% higher on average than in the private sector.
Partly responsible for these trends is unionization, which the Department of Labor reports has jumped to 37.4% of the public sector in 2009 from 24.1% in 1973 (unionization in the private sector declined to 7.2% from 25.4% in the same time period). The result is often pay levels higher than needed to attract qualified employees. The average quit rate among state and local employees is a third of that in the private sector.
Public employees also have a 70% advantage in benefits. Health insurance, retirement benefits, life insurance and paid sick leave are not only much more available to them, but much richer. In 2009, BLS figures indicate that the costs of health insurance were 2.18 times as much for state and local employees as for private-sector workers. In the private sector, defined-benefit pensions have declined over the years in favor of defined-contribution plans such as the 401(k). In 2009, defined-benefit plans were available to only 21% of private-sector workers—but to 84% of municipal employees, according to the Cato Institute. And public-sector defined-benefit plans paid retirees about twice as much as those in the private sector.
Public-sector retirement costs also are high because many can retire at age 55 after 30 years of employment with pensions equal to 60% or more of final salary, which is often jacked up by lots of overtime in final working years. In some states, employees can "double dip" by retiring early and then resuming their previous jobs or taking other government positions. So they get salaries and pensions at the same time. With slow economic growth, limited income expansion and high unemployment likely in future years, a taxpayer revolt may be brewing. Americans still want basic municipal services like police and fire protection, good schools for their kids, clean streets and garbage collection, but at lower costs and budgets that don't kick the deficit can down the road.
State and local government labor costs can be reduced in an orderly way. Following in the footsteps of bankrupt GM, two-tier wage structures would allow existing employees to continue at current salaries, but pay new hires much lower wages that are nevertheless adequate to attract and retain qualified people. And the new people can be enrolled in defined-contribution pension plans that require employee contributions instead of defined-benefit plans. Retirement ages can be increased. While waiting for existing employees to retire, their pay can be frozen. Pension formulas can be reformed to avoid the system being gamed by heavy overtime in final years on the job, and double-dipping can be eliminated. Retirees in the public sector can be required, as they are in the private sector, to pay meaningful shares of their health-care costs.
These changes would be profound and shake up the high-paid, secure image of state and local government jobs. But essential services would still be delivered, only much more cost effectively. Push has come to shove. Mr. Shilling, an economic consultant and investment adviser, is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
WHEN A CENTER-LEFT NEWSPAPER LIKE THE COLUMBUS (OH) DISPATCH SAYS THIS--LISTEN! Excerpts from an Editorial: CONSIDER THE 15 POINTS [**} TAKEN FROM THE EDITORIAL
===================
Malpractice—Flaws of health-care overhaul grow more apparent every day
Wednesday, April 28, 2010 2:53 AM
Almost daily, the ill effects of the health-care overhaul passed by Congress last month are becoming apparent. As employers and government bureaucrats analyze the law's effect on bottom lines for the private sector and for government, the alarm bells are ringing.
[1]--The tragedy is that these ill effects could have been and should have been calculated before the law was passed, not after. ...
[2]-- ...That's because their uppermost goal was not to pass the best health-care bill possible but merely to pass anything that could be called "health-care reform" and could be claimed as a political victory by a president desperate for one.
[3]--The latest analysis of the bill's likely effects comes from the Office of the Actuary in the federal Centers
for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The report by Chief Actuary Richard S. Foster says that, far from reducing the cost of health care, the overhaul will add $311 billion to the nation's health-care costs over the first decade the law is in effect. That's just for starters.
[4]--...The report also warns that the$575 billion in Medicare reductions that are supposed to help pay for the overhaul are unrealistic. If the cuts are not implemented by Congress, then hundreds of billions of dollars will be added to the national debt.
[5]--...In the extremely unlikely event that Congress allows the Medicare cuts to occur, then 15 percent of hospitals and other care facilities that rely on Medicare reimbursements would become unprofitable, meaning that they might drop Medicare patients.
[6]--...This would limit the availability of care for millions of seniors in the Medicare program at a time when
doctors and hospitals already will be stretched thin by the addition of millions of other Americans
clamoring to use the health insurance the overhaul will provide.
[7]--...(And to quantify the anticipated shortage of doctors, the American Academy of Family Physicians predicts a shortage of 39,000 family physicians by 2020.)
[8]--... by extending Medicaid coverage to 18 million people and offering government subsidies to 16 million others to pay for health insurance, the overhaul will drive up demand for health-care services.
[9]--...The actuary notes that a new, long-term-care benefit called the CLASS program that was included in the overhaul will become unsustainable in 15 years, and its deficits will be added to the national debt.
[10]--...Meanwhile, Monday's New York Times reports that congressional Democrats are acknowledging that companies such as AT&T, Caterpillar, Deere and Verizon were correct for making filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission detailing the large earnings hit they will take as a result of tax changes in the health-care overhaul.
[11]--...Initially, Democratic leaders suspected that these companies were simply trying to undermine the new
law by exaggerating its harm. U.S. Rep. Henry A. Waxman of California, chairman of the House
Energy and Commerce Committee, intended to subpoena these companies and subject them to a
public lashing before Congress. But after analysis of data substantiated the companies' SEC filings, he is now saying in effect, "Um,never mind."
[12]--... AT&T documentation shows that it spent $4.7 billion on medical costs for employees and retirees in 2009, an amount far higher than it would pay in penalties imposed by the health-care overhaul if the company dropped health-care coverage altogether. Those employees presumably then would seek government-subsidized health-insurance paid for by taxpayers.
[13]--...Underlining the law's perverse incentive, documents provided to Congress by Caterpillar included an e-mail from a company executive saying that provisions of the overhaul could "drive many employers to just drop coverage for retirees altogether, and let the government foot the whole bill."
[14]--...even the expansion of coverage may turn out to be an empty promise if there are too few doctors and hospitals willing to accept inadequate reimbursement for Medicare and Medicaid patients.
[15]--... the law was slapped together behind closed doors without proper testimony and vetting by health-care, financial and insurance experts, and is a patchwork of political and special-interest deals rammed through Congress using procedural gimmicks.
The nation deserved something much, much better than this.
©2010, The Columbus Dispatch
===================
THAT'S A LOT OF READING--BUT THE MESSAGES ARE EVIDENCE
Evidence that the misguided leadership in charge of the US--in many state houses and in the Federal government must be removed and replaced. Not everyone is misguided. You have the good sense to know who is--and who is not. There are many Senators and Congressional Representatives "retiring" suddenly. Perhaps, just maybe it is because they know they have been exposed for the miscreants in these enormous misdeeds, and they'd better get out--before they are called out to be punished. This is more than about just elections. Some actions are borderline criminal--others are seditionist (but that law was repealed a long time ago). Still others are stupid, power hungry and gutless.
FIND NEW CANDIDATES IN YOUR DISTRICTS--KNOW THEM--ELECT THEM
Our entire future, and that of our country depends on US. "We, the people..." are every one of us. Time to revolt is nearing. Just under 6 months away.
Best, John
------------------------------------------------------
PS: It's always good to end with a grin:
You know the honeymoon is over when the comedians start on the President.
The liberals are asking us to give Obama time. We agree . . and think 25 to life would be appropriate. -Jay Leno
America needs Obama-care like Nancy Pelosi needs a Halloween mask. -Jay Leno
Q: Have you heard about McDonald's' new Obama Value Meal?
A: Order anything you like and the guy behind you has to pay for it. -Conan O'Brien
Q: What does Barack Obama call lunch with a convicted felon?
A: A fund raiser. -Jay Leno
Q: What's the difference between Obama's cabinet and a penitentiary?
A: One is filled with tax evaders, blackmailers and threats to society. The other is for housing prisoners. -David Letterman
Q: If Nancy Pelosi and Obama were on a boat in the middle of the ocean and it started to sink, who would be saved?
A: America! -Jimmy Fallon
Q: What's the difference between Obama and his dog, Bo?
A: Bo has papers. -Jimmy Kimmel
Q: What was the most positive result of the "Cash for Clunkers" program?
A: It took 95% of the Obama bumper stickers off the road. -David Letterman
Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world: indeed, it's the only thing that ever has." Margaret Mead
-----------------------------------------------------------
John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
------------------------------------------------------------
Since I am just back from some R & R, I had a lot of reading to catch up on. As luck would have it, the Columbus Dispatch and WSJ came through with some great insights, and friends provided the rest. (Sorry about so much reading--but it's all good stuff.)
THE RECOVERY IS LOOKING "SPOTTY"...BUT CONTINUING
Jobs were created. That's good news. Unemployment was up to 9.9% (the real number is closer to 17%), which is technically bad news--because people who had given up looking for work are back looking again. Retail recovered a bit and then the early Easter, which helped March numbers, hurt the April numbers. Inventory rebuilding is nearly complete--as far as it will go--because caution is the description for attitudes on inventory. Target and Walmart both limped in with weak April numbers, but Costco had a robust gain as did Macy's and Nordstrom. The recent stock market gyrations and cataclysmic drop last week will make everyone more nervous. Conclusion--a slow, erratic recovery is the safest bet to plan on. if things heat up, scramble to capitalize.
PRODUCTIVITY IS COMING BACK DOWN TO EARTH
This goes along with some job creation and the last stages of a recession, and early stages of a recovery. Employers have squeezed nearly all the juice out of their current work force. New hiring usually depresses productivity numbers and this time will be no exception. The big issue this time is that many of the jobs that went away will never come back. That means chronically unemployed people in certain classes--manufacturing being one. Construction has a long, long way to come back, so many of those jobs are "gone" for the foreseeable future too.
CHINA--LABOR SHORTAGES AND THE YUAN
China's largest problems right now are containing some of its overheated sectors and finding enough skilled workers to staff its most prominent and best situated industries. There are lots of people further inland, but skills are weak or worse and infrastructure is uneven. Low wage jobs moving to VietNam and Indonesia will find that there are not enough people and too little industrial base to absorb China's overflow. Expect some interesting challenges for China sourcing in the next year. It's no longer so simple--and requires people with real skills, knowhow and experience to do it properly. That includes "certification" of the products before they ship too.
IF WE DON'T ELECT SOME NEW LEADERSHIP IN OUR COUNTRY--AND FAST—I MEAN STATE AND FEDERAL THERE WON'T BE MUCH OF THE AMERICA I KNEW FOR THE PAST 6+ DECADES LEFT. JUST FIXING THESE ENORMOUS MISTAKES WILL BE A DAUNTING TASK.
EUROPEAN LIFE SYTLE IS FALLING APART--BEING ADOPTED IN THE USA BY OBAMA & DEMS/LIBERALS
Europeans have long been cited for 'knowing how to enjoy life." Europe is a prototypical socialistic/statist system. Take 6 week "holidays" in late summer, shutting down businesses--so what? They work 35 hour weeks, maybe--so what? Retirement age is in the low 50's--so what? The problem is that the European economic system is failing--that's what! Look at what's happening in Greece, (and several other southern European countries are right behind it--Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc.). The EU has now proposed that Greece privatize its health insurance--at the same time the US Congress/President Obama are pushing America in the other direction. Worst of all is the proposal that the primarily US funded IMF contribute about $150B to bail out Greece. A bunch of that money comes from Americans! Write your Representative and Senators and complain!
CAP & TRADE IS A HIDDEN TAX BASED ON A HOAX--TRASH IT!
Global warming reports used by Al Gore and created by IPCC are now revealed to be filled with unscientific "consensus." In other words, there is no concrete proof that human activity, and especially the production of CO2 is the cause if catastrophic global warming. Thus there is no credible reason for Cap & Trade. Granted, we should stop fouling our planet with refuse and toxic emissions--but that is not what Cap & Trade was all about. We must resist this hoax drive campaign to add taxes and cripple our American industries. Write your Representative and Senators and complain!
THE FOX IS GUARDING THE HEN-HOUSE--BUT A "DEVOUT" FOX!
Subject: Fw: Time is growing short--Email received from a friend who is a retired Navy Admiral: Well, boys and girls, today the fox is guarding the hen house. The wolves will be herding the sheep. Obama appointed two devout Muslims to home land security posts. Doesn't this make you feel safer already? Obama and Janet Napolitano appointed Arif Alikhan, a devout Muslim, as Assistant Secretary for Policy Development. DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano swore-in Kareem Shora, a devout Muslim, who was born in Damascus, Syria, as ADC National Executive Director as a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC).
NOTE: Has anyone ever heard a new government official being identified as a devout Catholic, a devout Jew or a devout Protestant....? Just wondering. Devout Muslims being appointed to critical Homeland Security positions? Doesn't this make you feel safer already?? That should make our home land much safer, huh! Was it not "Devout Muslim men" that flew planes into U.S. buildings 8 years ago? Was it not a Devout Muslim who killed 13 at Fort Hood? Write your Representative and Senators and complain!
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES PAY AND BENEFITS ARE THE LARGEST FACTOR BEHIND STATE FINANCIAL CRISES
Gary Shilling offers sound advice on how we must rein in these costs, and what are some of the most palatable, and least disruptive approaches to do this. Without action, many states will drown in red ink and become financially bankrupt or worse. Few politicians have the nerve to tackle these problems. Our job is to find those who do, and get them elected. Contact both your state and Federal Representative and Senators and complain!
====================
OPINION--APRIL 29, 2010
How to Tackle Government Labor Costs—Pay freezes, two-tier wages, pension reform—nothing should be off the table
By A. GARY SHILLING
Life is tough and getting tougher for state and local governments. Revenues from personal and corporate income and sales taxes are down and property taxes are weakening. Budget deficits are jumping, and states now issue debt to fund routine expenditures. Meanwhile, pension obligations are underfunded to the tune of $1 trillion, according to the Pew Center on the States. States on average have set aside just 7.1% of retiree health care and other nonpension benefits, and 20 states have reserved nothing.
Costs remain stubbornly high, propelled over the last decade by rising municipal employment. Since the Great Recession started in December 2007, private payrolls have dropped 7.4%, but state and local jobs are essentially unchanged, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Some governments are making service cuts, but these are wholly inadequate, and voters are fiercely resistant to tax increases. The inescapable conclusion: Labor costs, which at $1.1 trillion in 2008 account for half of state and local spending according to the Cato Institute, simply must come down. And there is plenty of reason why they should. Consider:
Years ago, there was an informal "social contract"—public employees generally received lower wages than private-sector workers, and in return they got earlier retirement and generous pensions, allowing them to catch up. That arrangement has long since gone by the boards. The result is a remarkable trend. State and local government employees for years have received pay increases in excess of inflation, and BLS figures show they now have wages that are 34% higher on average than in the private sector.
Partly responsible for these trends is unionization, which the Department of Labor reports has jumped to 37.4% of the public sector in 2009 from 24.1% in 1973 (unionization in the private sector declined to 7.2% from 25.4% in the same time period). The result is often pay levels higher than needed to attract qualified employees. The average quit rate among state and local employees is a third of that in the private sector.
Public employees also have a 70% advantage in benefits. Health insurance, retirement benefits, life insurance and paid sick leave are not only much more available to them, but much richer. In 2009, BLS figures indicate that the costs of health insurance were 2.18 times as much for state and local employees as for private-sector workers. In the private sector, defined-benefit pensions have declined over the years in favor of defined-contribution plans such as the 401(k). In 2009, defined-benefit plans were available to only 21% of private-sector workers—but to 84% of municipal employees, according to the Cato Institute. And public-sector defined-benefit plans paid retirees about twice as much as those in the private sector.
Public-sector retirement costs also are high because many can retire at age 55 after 30 years of employment with pensions equal to 60% or more of final salary, which is often jacked up by lots of overtime in final working years. In some states, employees can "double dip" by retiring early and then resuming their previous jobs or taking other government positions. So they get salaries and pensions at the same time. With slow economic growth, limited income expansion and high unemployment likely in future years, a taxpayer revolt may be brewing. Americans still want basic municipal services like police and fire protection, good schools for their kids, clean streets and garbage collection, but at lower costs and budgets that don't kick the deficit can down the road.
State and local government labor costs can be reduced in an orderly way. Following in the footsteps of bankrupt GM, two-tier wage structures would allow existing employees to continue at current salaries, but pay new hires much lower wages that are nevertheless adequate to attract and retain qualified people. And the new people can be enrolled in defined-contribution pension plans that require employee contributions instead of defined-benefit plans. Retirement ages can be increased. While waiting for existing employees to retire, their pay can be frozen. Pension formulas can be reformed to avoid the system being gamed by heavy overtime in final years on the job, and double-dipping can be eliminated. Retirees in the public sector can be required, as they are in the private sector, to pay meaningful shares of their health-care costs.
These changes would be profound and shake up the high-paid, secure image of state and local government jobs. But essential services would still be delivered, only much more cost effectively. Push has come to shove. Mr. Shilling, an economic consultant and investment adviser, is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
WHEN A CENTER-LEFT NEWSPAPER LIKE THE COLUMBUS (OH) DISPATCH SAYS THIS--LISTEN! Excerpts from an Editorial: CONSIDER THE 15 POINTS [**} TAKEN FROM THE EDITORIAL
===================
Malpractice—Flaws of health-care overhaul grow more apparent every day
Wednesday, April 28, 2010 2:53 AM
Almost daily, the ill effects of the health-care overhaul passed by Congress last month are becoming apparent. As employers and government bureaucrats analyze the law's effect on bottom lines for the private sector and for government, the alarm bells are ringing.
[1]--The tragedy is that these ill effects could have been and should have been calculated before the law was passed, not after. ...
[2]-- ...That's because their uppermost goal was not to pass the best health-care bill possible but merely to pass anything that could be called "health-care reform" and could be claimed as a political victory by a president desperate for one.
[3]--The latest analysis of the bill's likely effects comes from the Office of the Actuary in the federal Centers
for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The report by Chief Actuary Richard S. Foster says that, far from reducing the cost of health care, the overhaul will add $311 billion to the nation's health-care costs over the first decade the law is in effect. That's just for starters.
[4]--...The report also warns that the$575 billion in Medicare reductions that are supposed to help pay for the overhaul are unrealistic. If the cuts are not implemented by Congress, then hundreds of billions of dollars will be added to the national debt.
[5]--...In the extremely unlikely event that Congress allows the Medicare cuts to occur, then 15 percent of hospitals and other care facilities that rely on Medicare reimbursements would become unprofitable, meaning that they might drop Medicare patients.
[6]--...This would limit the availability of care for millions of seniors in the Medicare program at a time when
doctors and hospitals already will be stretched thin by the addition of millions of other Americans
clamoring to use the health insurance the overhaul will provide.
[7]--...(And to quantify the anticipated shortage of doctors, the American Academy of Family Physicians predicts a shortage of 39,000 family physicians by 2020.)
[8]--... by extending Medicaid coverage to 18 million people and offering government subsidies to 16 million others to pay for health insurance, the overhaul will drive up demand for health-care services.
[9]--...The actuary notes that a new, long-term-care benefit called the CLASS program that was included in the overhaul will become unsustainable in 15 years, and its deficits will be added to the national debt.
[10]--...Meanwhile, Monday's New York Times reports that congressional Democrats are acknowledging that companies such as AT&T, Caterpillar, Deere and Verizon were correct for making filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission detailing the large earnings hit they will take as a result of tax changes in the health-care overhaul.
[11]--...Initially, Democratic leaders suspected that these companies were simply trying to undermine the new
law by exaggerating its harm. U.S. Rep. Henry A. Waxman of California, chairman of the House
Energy and Commerce Committee, intended to subpoena these companies and subject them to a
public lashing before Congress. But after analysis of data substantiated the companies' SEC filings, he is now saying in effect, "Um,never mind."
[12]--... AT&T documentation shows that it spent $4.7 billion on medical costs for employees and retirees in 2009, an amount far higher than it would pay in penalties imposed by the health-care overhaul if the company dropped health-care coverage altogether. Those employees presumably then would seek government-subsidized health-insurance paid for by taxpayers.
[13]--...Underlining the law's perverse incentive, documents provided to Congress by Caterpillar included an e-mail from a company executive saying that provisions of the overhaul could "drive many employers to just drop coverage for retirees altogether, and let the government foot the whole bill."
[14]--...even the expansion of coverage may turn out to be an empty promise if there are too few doctors and hospitals willing to accept inadequate reimbursement for Medicare and Medicaid patients.
[15]--... the law was slapped together behind closed doors without proper testimony and vetting by health-care, financial and insurance experts, and is a patchwork of political and special-interest deals rammed through Congress using procedural gimmicks.
The nation deserved something much, much better than this.
©2010, The Columbus Dispatch
===================
THAT'S A LOT OF READING--BUT THE MESSAGES ARE EVIDENCE
Evidence that the misguided leadership in charge of the US--in many state houses and in the Federal government must be removed and replaced. Not everyone is misguided. You have the good sense to know who is--and who is not. There are many Senators and Congressional Representatives "retiring" suddenly. Perhaps, just maybe it is because they know they have been exposed for the miscreants in these enormous misdeeds, and they'd better get out--before they are called out to be punished. This is more than about just elections. Some actions are borderline criminal--others are seditionist (but that law was repealed a long time ago). Still others are stupid, power hungry and gutless.
FIND NEW CANDIDATES IN YOUR DISTRICTS--KNOW THEM--ELECT THEM
Our entire future, and that of our country depends on US. "We, the people..." are every one of us. Time to revolt is nearing. Just under 6 months away.
Best, John
------------------------------------------------------
PS: It's always good to end with a grin:
You know the honeymoon is over when the comedians start on the President.
The liberals are asking us to give Obama time. We agree . . and think 25 to life would be appropriate. -Jay Leno
America needs Obama-care like Nancy Pelosi needs a Halloween mask. -Jay Leno
Q: Have you heard about McDonald's' new Obama Value Meal?
A: Order anything you like and the guy behind you has to pay for it. -Conan O'Brien
Q: What does Barack Obama call lunch with a convicted felon?
A: A fund raiser. -Jay Leno
Q: What's the difference between Obama's cabinet and a penitentiary?
A: One is filled with tax evaders, blackmailers and threats to society. The other is for housing prisoners. -David Letterman
Q: If Nancy Pelosi and Obama were on a boat in the middle of the ocean and it started to sink, who would be saved?
A: America! -Jimmy Fallon
Q: What's the difference between Obama and his dog, Bo?
A: Bo has papers. -Jimmy Kimmel
Q: What was the most positive result of the "Cash for Clunkers" program?
A: It took 95% of the Obama bumper stickers off the road. -David Letterman
Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world: indeed, it's the only thing that ever has." Margaret Mead
-----------------------------------------------------------
John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
------------------------------------------------------------
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