THE ENTERPRISE--AMERICA--WHAT'S THE FUTURE?
PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN?
Watch Ollie North tell this story and you will be!
http://www.nragive.com/ringoffreedom/index.html
WHAT'S HAPPENING TO AMERICA?
Save this file and print it to read when you have time.
It is a very insightful article from the WSJ, written by Mort Zuckerman, Chairman & Editor-in-chief of US News & World Report. I can't do any better than this.
Download The End of American Optimism - WSJ.com
ONE RECORD I HOPE AMERICA CAN'T TOP—CHINA'S RECORD TRAFFIC JAM
In case you haven't been reading the news, China's boom in traffic on the outskirts of Beijing, combined with road construction created a 60 mile traffic jam, which has lasted for more than 10 days and may take several weeks to clear up. This is one "biggest" China can keep in their record books.
TRUTH TELLERS OR NOT? HOW DO YOU KNOW? RIGHT AWAY! (It's lots easier in hindsight!)
I've been lied to before--in the business world and personally. It isn't much fun to be on the receiving end of a lie--especially when it can destroy your future. A new TV show "Lie to Me" deals with the reading of "micro-expressions" and "micro-body -language" to detect if a person is telling a lie or the truth, is frightened, angry, disgusted, etc. Supposedly this works, but it requires a great deal of skill and training to use effectively. The TSA screeners receive rudimentary training of this sort, but only the very best can go beyond some of the simpler "reads." (Poker players call them "tells.")
DON'T YOU WISH YOU COULD KNOW WHO'S LYING ABOUT COMPANY FINANCIAL RESULTS?
A pair of Stanford professors is using a more "analytical" method—linguistic studies of 30,000 transcripts of conference calls from companies that later released earnings. Executives who later had to revise their financials displayed some very consistent clues! They seldom referred to themselves or their company in the first person--"I" or "We." They used terms like "the team," or "the company." Deceitful executives didn't use adjectives like "solid" or "respectable." They went for more extreme words like "fantastic." They seldom mentioned shareholder value, and often referred to general knowledge with words like "you know," to support statements. Were the metrics accurate? About 50-65% of the time--and CFOs were much less talkative, and therefore less misleading than CEOs. Maybe a new science is born!
TOYOTA IS GETTING RIPPED--AND NOT ALL OF IT IS FAIR-- 93 DEATHS OR 5 DEATHS? BIG DIFFERENCE!
Sure, Toyota screwed up. Introduced too many new models with inadequate (less than its normal near-perfect) testing and quality assurance. And yes, it's recalls have reached epic proportions. However, the media hype machine combined with sloppy methods and inadequate controls on what can be reported without credible back up, is unfairly harming Toyota. Michael Fumento, a Free-lance DC writer researched the alleged 93 deaths resulting from Toyota's unintended acceleration problems. I can't vouch for his accuracy, but he reports in FORBES than he found 5 deaths--NOT 93--that the NHTSA investigation has attributed to an acceleration defect. If his reporting is correct, the "reports" include every kind of misinformation from drivers under the influence of alcohol or drugs to "claims: that were simply made up for either notoriety or litigation purposes. The "mainstream media" seems to be more interested in hype than truth.
DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION OR NOT? A BLIP (Christmas spending); A DIP (1Q 2011); A SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE SECOND DIP
The 2Q of 2010 will be revised down to a growth rate of only 1.6%. Consensus is that the 3Q will show negative GDP growth. Consumers are smart. They see job growth stagnant and they are saving what they can, spending only on "occasions and necessities" (like last minute buys of Back to School needs, food, fuel, etc.). Consumers will spend for Christmas, but "cautiously." Not a "big Christmas" season--lots of bargain hunting however.
BERNANKE MAY SOUND OPTIMISTIC--BUT...
For many people, this recession is a DEPRESSION! Few of those who are older and once had lucrative factory jobs will ever regain those kinds of jobs. Young people and minorities are out of work at 2-3 times the national average. The minimum wage increases have wiped out demand for their low-skill/low-experience levels. Whoops! College graduates in some of the "softer skill" areas (like Bachelor of Arts in low/no demand fields) cannot find jobs--period. They are deemed overqualified for menial work and not needed in other fields. Their best hope lies in the service or hospitality fields. Ask your server next time, what his/her education level is. You'll be surprised. A while back, I was served by a licensed Architect who couldn't find work.
THE HOUSING MARKET IS STILL OVER BURDENED WITH INVENTORY & DISTRESSED SALES
There is no housing recovery. Recent sales have been mostly government aided buys or smart shoppers grabbing deals at very low prices. Any housing recovery must be preceded by a large inventory reduction AND jobs growth. This will not happen soon with 2 million unsold houses over and above the normal working inventory levels. Slowly, it will recover--but over years, not months.
THE GOVERNMENT IS CLUELESS ABOUT HOW TO CREATE JOBS--WHAT IT DOES KNOW HOW TO DO IS OVER-SPEND
A vote of NO confidence in government-- according to over 5000 Americans surveyed by BIGresearch. (Survey error +/-1%)
--77.2% of Americans believe that the deficit is a result of government spending being too high while 7.7% think it’s from taxes being too low.
--78.8% believe that members are mismanaging taxpayer dollars, compared to only 6.9% who think they are using them wisely.
--71.8% have little-to-no confidence that the government’s economic policies will get the economy back on track (v. 28.2% who are confident/very confident).
With another dismal unemployment report on the record for July, Americans don’t believe the deficit will do employment (or lack thereof) any favors either. 70.1% say the federal deficit will have a somewhat/very negative impact on job creation.
--74.9% have little-to-no confidence that the government’s economic policies will help lower unemployment (v. 25.1% who do).
Q: WHERE DOES GOVERNMENT GET THE MONEY IT SPENDS?
A: From us-- the taxpaying citizens and from businesses (who also get it from customers--which is us too)
--Fact: Only about 60% of American citizens actually pay income tax!),
--Secondarily the government gets its revenue from a whole lot of other taxes, customs duties, tariffs, fees, and other levies, all of which are simply taxes imposed in different formats and with other names.
--Watch this video: "I WANT YOUR MONEY!" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wty7974IKg
DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY, "FUD" CHILLS HIRING AND PRODUCTIVITY CREATES A CONUNDRUM
Absent wars, famine or pestilence, people who are born, get older and are living longer. The aging "boomers" are cutting back, hard, in fear of their income potential and unpreparedness for "retirement." This is one of the underlying causes of lower consumer spending. Combine this with Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt about jobs, the economy and what the government will do (or tax or regulate) next, all consumers are also "hunkering down." The result: weak consumer spending; weak demand; weak hiring by companies, lower tax revenues, and thus even larger Federal and State deficits. Add to the the conundrum of productivity--which must improve to enhance competitiveness--but which means the fewer employees product more output, and you have a triple whammy that nobody in Washington has a clue how to handle. Why? Because too many American people elected career politicians and bureaucrats instead of those nasty old capitalistic business people.
ELECTIONS ARE COMING--LET'S MAKE WISE CHOICES
In my home state of OH, Governor Ted Strickland is throwing mud at his opponent John Kasich because John is an astute businessman and has had experience managing budgets in complex situations (Like during the 1994 Contract with America). Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is running for the US Senate against Rob Portman, formerly the US Trade Representative and Budget Director. Fisher is a self-proclaimed "jobs guy;" Ohio has lost hundreds of thousands of jobs while he has been practicing his expertise. Strickland and Fisher plugged the holes in OH's budget using $8B of one-time Federal money. Whoops, what does OH do next year and the year after with that big budget gap. (Ask Schwartenegger--he's got the biggest gap of all--and there is no easy answer.)
So what do the mud-slinging ads say: Don't elect these "dirty businessmen and former experience fiscal managers. Elect us because we'll tell you what you want to hear (not the truth) but you'll feel good temporarily. (The same trick Obama would pull on someone like a Mitt Romney, who has actually "done something" in his life and career.)
Choose wisely and carefully consider which kind of elected officials you want to vote for. It is our only way to change our country--one vote at a time--WE THE PEOPLE--can reclaim our country over the next 2-1/3 years.
LET'S DO IT
Best, John
--------------------------------------------------------
I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle. -- Winston Churchill
----------------------------------------------------------
John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
------------------------------------------------------------
PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN?
Watch Ollie North tell this story and you will be!
http://www.nragive.com/ringoffreedom/index.html
WHAT'S HAPPENING TO AMERICA?
Save this file and print it to read when you have time.
It is a very insightful article from the WSJ, written by Mort Zuckerman, Chairman & Editor-in-chief of US News & World Report. I can't do any better than this.
Download The End of American Optimism - WSJ.com
ONE RECORD I HOPE AMERICA CAN'T TOP—CHINA'S RECORD TRAFFIC JAM
In case you haven't been reading the news, China's boom in traffic on the outskirts of Beijing, combined with road construction created a 60 mile traffic jam, which has lasted for more than 10 days and may take several weeks to clear up. This is one "biggest" China can keep in their record books.
TRUTH TELLERS OR NOT? HOW DO YOU KNOW? RIGHT AWAY! (It's lots easier in hindsight!)
I've been lied to before--in the business world and personally. It isn't much fun to be on the receiving end of a lie--especially when it can destroy your future. A new TV show "Lie to Me" deals with the reading of "micro-expressions" and "micro-body -language" to detect if a person is telling a lie or the truth, is frightened, angry, disgusted, etc. Supposedly this works, but it requires a great deal of skill and training to use effectively. The TSA screeners receive rudimentary training of this sort, but only the very best can go beyond some of the simpler "reads." (Poker players call them "tells.")
DON'T YOU WISH YOU COULD KNOW WHO'S LYING ABOUT COMPANY FINANCIAL RESULTS?
A pair of Stanford professors is using a more "analytical" method—linguistic studies of 30,000 transcripts of conference calls from companies that later released earnings. Executives who later had to revise their financials displayed some very consistent clues! They seldom referred to themselves or their company in the first person--"I" or "We." They used terms like "the team," or "the company." Deceitful executives didn't use adjectives like "solid" or "respectable." They went for more extreme words like "fantastic." They seldom mentioned shareholder value, and often referred to general knowledge with words like "you know," to support statements. Were the metrics accurate? About 50-65% of the time--and CFOs were much less talkative, and therefore less misleading than CEOs. Maybe a new science is born!
TOYOTA IS GETTING RIPPED--AND NOT ALL OF IT IS FAIR-- 93 DEATHS OR 5 DEATHS? BIG DIFFERENCE!
Sure, Toyota screwed up. Introduced too many new models with inadequate (less than its normal near-perfect) testing and quality assurance. And yes, it's recalls have reached epic proportions. However, the media hype machine combined with sloppy methods and inadequate controls on what can be reported without credible back up, is unfairly harming Toyota. Michael Fumento, a Free-lance DC writer researched the alleged 93 deaths resulting from Toyota's unintended acceleration problems. I can't vouch for his accuracy, but he reports in FORBES than he found 5 deaths--NOT 93--that the NHTSA investigation has attributed to an acceleration defect. If his reporting is correct, the "reports" include every kind of misinformation from drivers under the influence of alcohol or drugs to "claims: that were simply made up for either notoriety or litigation purposes. The "mainstream media" seems to be more interested in hype than truth.
DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION OR NOT? A BLIP (Christmas spending); A DIP (1Q 2011); A SLOW CLIMB OUT OF THE SECOND DIP
The 2Q of 2010 will be revised down to a growth rate of only 1.6%. Consensus is that the 3Q will show negative GDP growth. Consumers are smart. They see job growth stagnant and they are saving what they can, spending only on "occasions and necessities" (like last minute buys of Back to School needs, food, fuel, etc.). Consumers will spend for Christmas, but "cautiously." Not a "big Christmas" season--lots of bargain hunting however.
BERNANKE MAY SOUND OPTIMISTIC--BUT...
For many people, this recession is a DEPRESSION! Few of those who are older and once had lucrative factory jobs will ever regain those kinds of jobs. Young people and minorities are out of work at 2-3 times the national average. The minimum wage increases have wiped out demand for their low-skill/low-experience levels. Whoops! College graduates in some of the "softer skill" areas (like Bachelor of Arts in low/no demand fields) cannot find jobs--period. They are deemed overqualified for menial work and not needed in other fields. Their best hope lies in the service or hospitality fields. Ask your server next time, what his/her education level is. You'll be surprised. A while back, I was served by a licensed Architect who couldn't find work.
THE HOUSING MARKET IS STILL OVER BURDENED WITH INVENTORY & DISTRESSED SALES
There is no housing recovery. Recent sales have been mostly government aided buys or smart shoppers grabbing deals at very low prices. Any housing recovery must be preceded by a large inventory reduction AND jobs growth. This will not happen soon with 2 million unsold houses over and above the normal working inventory levels. Slowly, it will recover--but over years, not months.
THE GOVERNMENT IS CLUELESS ABOUT HOW TO CREATE JOBS--WHAT IT DOES KNOW HOW TO DO IS OVER-SPEND
A vote of NO confidence in government-- according to over 5000 Americans surveyed by BIGresearch. (Survey error +/-1%)
--77.2% of Americans believe that the deficit is a result of government spending being too high while 7.7% think it’s from taxes being too low.
--78.8% believe that members are mismanaging taxpayer dollars, compared to only 6.9% who think they are using them wisely.
--71.8% have little-to-no confidence that the government’s economic policies will get the economy back on track (v. 28.2% who are confident/very confident).
With another dismal unemployment report on the record for July, Americans don’t believe the deficit will do employment (or lack thereof) any favors either. 70.1% say the federal deficit will have a somewhat/very negative impact on job creation.
--74.9% have little-to-no confidence that the government’s economic policies will help lower unemployment (v. 25.1% who do).
Q: WHERE DOES GOVERNMENT GET THE MONEY IT SPENDS?
A: From us-- the taxpaying citizens and from businesses (who also get it from customers--which is us too)
--Fact: Only about 60% of American citizens actually pay income tax!),
--Secondarily the government gets its revenue from a whole lot of other taxes, customs duties, tariffs, fees, and other levies, all of which are simply taxes imposed in different formats and with other names.
--Watch this video: "I WANT YOUR MONEY!" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wty7974IKg
DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY, "FUD" CHILLS HIRING AND PRODUCTIVITY CREATES A CONUNDRUM
Absent wars, famine or pestilence, people who are born, get older and are living longer. The aging "boomers" are cutting back, hard, in fear of their income potential and unpreparedness for "retirement." This is one of the underlying causes of lower consumer spending. Combine this with Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt about jobs, the economy and what the government will do (or tax or regulate) next, all consumers are also "hunkering down." The result: weak consumer spending; weak demand; weak hiring by companies, lower tax revenues, and thus even larger Federal and State deficits. Add to the the conundrum of productivity--which must improve to enhance competitiveness--but which means the fewer employees product more output, and you have a triple whammy that nobody in Washington has a clue how to handle. Why? Because too many American people elected career politicians and bureaucrats instead of those nasty old capitalistic business people.
ELECTIONS ARE COMING--LET'S MAKE WISE CHOICES
In my home state of OH, Governor Ted Strickland is throwing mud at his opponent John Kasich because John is an astute businessman and has had experience managing budgets in complex situations (Like during the 1994 Contract with America). Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is running for the US Senate against Rob Portman, formerly the US Trade Representative and Budget Director. Fisher is a self-proclaimed "jobs guy;" Ohio has lost hundreds of thousands of jobs while he has been practicing his expertise. Strickland and Fisher plugged the holes in OH's budget using $8B of one-time Federal money. Whoops, what does OH do next year and the year after with that big budget gap. (Ask Schwartenegger--he's got the biggest gap of all--and there is no easy answer.)
So what do the mud-slinging ads say: Don't elect these "dirty businessmen and former experience fiscal managers. Elect us because we'll tell you what you want to hear (not the truth) but you'll feel good temporarily. (The same trick Obama would pull on someone like a Mitt Romney, who has actually "done something" in his life and career.)
Choose wisely and carefully consider which kind of elected officials you want to vote for. It is our only way to change our country--one vote at a time--WE THE PEOPLE--can reclaim our country over the next 2-1/3 years.
LET'S DO IT
Best, John
--------------------------------------------------------
I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle. -- Winston Churchill
----------------------------------------------------------
John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
------------------------------------------------------------
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