THE ENTERPRISE--A HOPEFUL HOLIDAY
THE GROWTH IS STILL LUKEWARM, BUT…BETTER THAN NO GROWTH OR DECLINE
The growth in jobs is still inadequate to absorb the new entrants to the work force. The decline in the published (U-2) unemployment rate to 8.6% is artificial, caused by the dropout of 315,000 people who have given up looking. The hiring of recent dates has been at least partly fueled by holiday needs, and may not endure. The decline in the first claims for unemployment to around 380,000 is better than it was, but only by a few percentage points. BUT--what the heck--growth is growth. In many ways this is a lot like the GM bankruptcy. Both would have happened with no intervention from the government and Obama's Misguided Minions. In fact, his misdeeds may have actually slowed things down, but "whatever."
DON'T EXPECT ROBUST GROWTH TO OCCUR IN 1Q 2012…
According to the latest surveys by BIGinsight.com (formerly BIGresearch), consumers play to spend more paying down their debts in early 2012--and that means less on shopping. What will really matter is how "clean the cupboards" of retailers are come Jan. 1. If retailer inventories are modest, then January will be less of a downer. There is always a bit of a slowdown in ordering in Jan. since most retailers' fiscal year ends are Jan. 31, and they want clean balance sheets on that date. It is ironic that the campaigning to date has probably helped the growth a bit--because it forced President Obama and the Congress to at least hear many of the points being made by the GOP hopefuls. Clearly, Obama is listening, and cherry-picking the ideas he can stomach IF they will help his reelection campaign.
MANUFACTURING REBOUND: FROM TARGET--THE ASSOCIATION FOR MANUFACTURING EXCELLENCE NEWSLETTER:
Hopeful Signs Appear in Manufacturing
by Jeanette Spalding
Market reporting outlets from Bloomberg to the Wall Street Journal have covered the recent Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Report on Business that said economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November for the 28th consecutive month and the overall economy grew for the 30th month in a row.
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reached the 52.7-percent mark, which represents a 1.9-percentage point hike from October's reading of 50.8 percent, reported Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee
SO WHAT ABOUT THE CANDIDATES AND 2012? THE LATEST READ?
If you watched the Fox News sponsored debate last night--which most Republicans probably did, Independents might have and Democrats would have missed intentionally, you saw an excellent read on the candidates:
- The Best Overall--Solid: Mitt Romney--my choice from the outset.
- Still Smartest--Scary Smart: Newt Gingrich;
- Easily most Extreme: Ron Paul, and
- "The best of the rest:" Jon Huntsman.
- Rick Perry was on his game--it just wasn't good enough--even though his Texas record is impressive.
- Rick Santorum is solidly like he has been all along--good, but not great.
- Michelle Bachman is a "one-trick pony"--the furthest "right" of the bunch.
- However, Iowans are not representative of the entire USA, so whoever emerges from those Iowa caucuses is not usually the winner overall (e.g., Mike Huckabee, Howard Dean)---unless it happens to be Romney. MItt should win in New Hampshire, and do OK in SC, especially after getting Gov. Nikki Haley's endorsement. Florida, in early 2012 will be the big test--even though its age demographic is far older than the nation overall.
PREVIEW OF WHAT'S COMING IN 1Q 2012 (IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARIES): I HAVE TWO NEW BOOKS COMING OUT …I'VE BEEN WORKING ON THEM FOR MONTHS.
---THE INTERSECTION: FOUR PATHS TO PROFITABLE GROWTH is "dynamite in a small package." It will be under 100pp., and packed with solid strategic and tactical concepts to help businesses and people succeed in all kinds of enterprises--and in their careers. The principles in this little book have been tested and used in many companies over the past decade or so--and have proven to be tremendously successful. This book has been over a year in the making, and contains a concentrated dose of the things I have learned over several decades--including a Format for a Strategic Plan--something that so many have asked about because they couldn't find user-friendly books on strategic planning.
---HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY: Leadership Lessons from the Obama Presidency is co-authored with Dave Lukas, a brilliant young man (about ½ my age--but very accomplished). In this one we will offer 30 "Lessons"—with a short chapter describing each one of them—and all based on missteps during the first three years of the Obama Administration--but all rooted in years of business experience and success. It will be a fun, easy read; short chapters; simple principles. It will not be so much fun for staunch liberals or for Democratic supporters of Barack Obama--although there is much they can also learn about why many of his efforts fell flat on their face.
Both books will be available in trade paperback format, and in e-book formats (for Kindle, at least) and adaptable to the iPad too. Neither will likely see much time on the dusty shelves of big bookstores, since finding them back there is like searching for a needle in a haystack. Just go to amazon.com, and there they will be.
SYNDICATED COLUMNIST CAL THOMAS GETS IT SO RIGHT, I AM POSTING HIS COMPLETE COLUMN BELOW.
Obama's Latest "60 Minutes' Interview" By Cal Thomas 12/15/2011
President Obama doesn't suffer from amnesia, but apparently he hopes the public does. In his latest in a series of interviews on "60 Minutes" last Sunday night, the president took positions that are the polar opposite of what he was saying as recently as last spring. One wishes all of those "fact-checkers" who point out supposed mistakes by the Republican candidates were as committed to noting even worse flaws in the president's promises.
In his interview with Steve Kroft, the president said he always believed that reversing the culture in Washington "was gonna take more than one term." It's a "long-term project," he said, "not a short-term project." And then he claimed that during the 2008 campaign, he "didn't overpromise." Really?Speaking in Richmond, Va., on Oct. 22, 2008, Obama promised to put millions of Americans back to work; he pledged "real change." Instead, the unemployment rate is 8.6 percent. Or is it? Ed Luce of the Financial Times writes, "According to government statistics, if the same number of people were seeking work today as in 2007, the jobless rate would be 11 percent." Washington remains unchanged, as dysfunctional and gridlocked as ever.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, since President Obama took office, the nation has lost 1.9 million jobs, prompting Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler to write that if the economy does not turn around, "Obama is on track to have the worst jobs record of any president in the modern era."In 2009, the president said on the "Today" show, "If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition." A few days later in Florida, there was this, "I'm not going to make any excuses," said Obama. "If stuff hasn't worked and people don't feel like I've led the country in the right direction, then you'll have a new president."The latest right-track, wrong-track poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports found that only 17 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction, while a whopping 75 percent think it's headed the wrong way.On CBS, the president said the 2012 election is about his vision, but as CBS News' Stephanie Condon reported last week, "Sixty-six percent of Americans say they do not have a clear idea of what he wants to accomplish in a second term. ... Fewer than half of Democrats say they have a clear idea of what the president wants to accomplish if re-elected." Don't we know? It's taxing "millionaires and billionaires" so the government has more of our money to waste.Is none of this Obama's fault? Can it all be blamed on Bush? Apparently, the president has decided that playing the blame game is good campaign strategy.The president blames Republicans for not allowing him to accomplish anything, but says nothing about his own failure to get things done (other than the health care bill, whose constitutionality the Supreme Court ultimately will decide) when Democrats controlled Congress for the first two years of his administration. And what about Senate Democrats who have rejected every House bill seeking cuts in wasteful spending to bring the budget closer into balance? Not a word.Shall I continue? The president's housing programs received $50 billion from Congress to help stem foreclosures on 9 million homeowners. As The Washington Post reported in October, only $2.4 billion of that money has been allocated, helping just 1.7 million people avoid foreclosure.Imagine what Democrats and their acolytes in the media would say if a Republican president had a similar track record. One doesn't have to imagine. With a lower unemployment rate and less debt in the Bush administration, Democrats were relentless in their attacks, promising improvements. Barack Obama assured us he would make things better.Democrats didn't improve anything and nothing has been made better. According to President Obama's own standard, and contrary to what he said on "60 Minutes," he does not deserve a second term. That he thinks he has earned re-election brings to mind the World English Dictionary definition of "hubris": "Pride or arrogance; (in Greek tragedy) an excess of ambition ... ultimately causing the transgressor's ruin."
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Author of the award winner: The Complexity Crisis & The Chinese Conspiracy (a novel)
Come see me on Forbes.com, and American Express Open Forum:
http://www.openforum.com/connectodex/small-business-trends?username=john-mariotti&isRecentPosts=True
John L. Mariotti, President & CEO, The Enterprise Group, Phone 614-840-0959 http://www.mariotti.net, http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
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