THE ENTERPRISE--HOW LIFE (AND BUSINESS) IS CHANGING
TERRORISM HAS NO FACE OR A MILLION FACES
The tragedy at the Boston Marathon exposes how vulnerable America is to terrorists--especially "home grown ones." England is already facing this problem even more than we are, where there are huge concentrations of Muslims in London…many of which are becoming increasingly extreme. America has such a strong belief in freedom, that the flip side of this is that radicals are also free to do what they choose, including blowing up or shooting or stabling people when they have the opportunity and desire to do so. All of the laws in the world can't stop a few evil people who are determined to wreak havoc in the innocent. The shooting in CT proved that. So does this bombing.
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TO INCREASE PROTECTION, DECREASE FREEDOM!
The widely discussed and debated laws (guns, immigration, etc.) only make acts of extremist violence more difficult--but far from impossible. The true controversy may well develop about how many of our "freedoms" we choose to surrender in order to protect ourselves. This is the true extension of terrorism. Current debates about immigration policy and ID use will likely migrate to impact the general population. It is both imaginable, and perhaps advisable that our ubiquitous driver's license be made into "a smart ID, including biometrics, and maybe even RFID locators. Will "Big Brother" be able to track your movements then? Absolutely. To protect against the abuse of freedom, one of the primary actions is to remove some dimension of that freedom. But realistically, if "Big Brother" chooses to ignore the Constitution (gasp!), they can almost do this now. Credit card use, GPS enabled cell phones and other means of location tracking exist now. The choice may be a difficult and contentious one. (Look at the voter ID debates. You need a "license" ID with a photo to drive a car, check into a hotel, board an airplane, but to vote requires only the weakest of ID--e.g., a utility bill with a name and address, etc. Really?
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THE ECONOMY IS STILL SICK--AND MOST AMERICANS KNOW IT
Yes, housing is coming back from it's doldrums, aided by the hard to explain climb in the stock market, and the aggressive sale pricing of homes. The inventory of unsold homes is dropping very quickly. New home starts are climbing. The concern is that unusually low interest rates could actually trigger another housing mini-bubble! Consumer spending is up and down. It is buoyed by the stock market and depressed by the job (jobless) market. The one solution that will lift America out of this malaise is GROWTH! It may surprise many of you that I think the current GOP budget proposal is "too much of a good thing!" We need to rein in spending, but cutting too far, too fast will cripple an already anemic economy. The cuts need to be targeted, but the places where they need to be made most are the pet projects and crony buddies of the current president--so that probably won't happen.
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A BUDGET, A BUDGET, MY KINGDOM FOR A SENSIBLE, BALANCED, BI-PARTISAN BUDGET
At least his most recent budget proposal mentions a couple of ways to reduce the spending on entitlements (only a little, and always in the future--not now!) The tax structure needs revision, and some of the "loopholes that need closing" will likely be a drag on investment--but they still need closing. In general the tax code is riddled with special interest driven exceptions most of which should be removed--but nobody wants their pet exemption to be removed. So progress will be painfully slow in doing this. If the most egregious loopholes could be closed, the overall rate could be lowered, and SURPRISE lower tax rates actually create more income for the government because they stimulate GROWTH. For some inexplicable reason the liberal Keynesians led by their idiot savant Paul Krugman, refuse to recognize the facts: every time in recent history (50 years) that the capital gains tax rate was cut, tax revenue increased! Will they ever learn? NO!
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But this is my segue to the subject of GROWTH in another context. Clearly not enough of you have bought copies of ROADMAP TO PROFITABLE GROWTH…because in spite of glowing reviews, sales SUCK! PLEASE…GO TO AMAZON AND BUY COPIES OF IT--ONE AT A TIME! Kindle is cheaper at just under $8. But even at $14.95, the value you will get is enormous. OR IF YOU WA NT MORE, CONTACT ME AND I'LL HAVE 25, 50, WHATEVER QUANTITY YOU WANT SHIPPED DIRECT TO YOU AT A HOT PRICE!
READ ON….
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A GREAT REVIEW OF ROADMAP TO PROFITABLE GROWTH BY A BRILLIANT AUTHOR/CONSULTANT
This review is from: Roadmap to Profitable Growth (Paperback)
There are probably more books on how to run a business than grains of sand in the Sahara, Yet the basics of every successful business come down to some simple and straightforward strategies, which, if executed, will provide the basis for every good business decision. In Roadmap to Profitable Growth John takes these essential ingredients and boils them down to an easy to understand manageable 125 pages of insight.
But don't let the concise nature of the book fool you. Having built three business, and advised thousands, I've found that the best leaders stick to a formula that precisely fits John's Roadmap - and foremost among these is looking beyond the urgent distractions and instead focusing on a vision of the future that is often obscured by the complexity of the present.
John takes a hard look at why we derail our best ideas and intentions by not putting in place a roadmap that offers a living tool to navigate uncertainty and complexity. In fact, the term Roadmap underplays the true nature of what John is describing, which is more like a real-time GPS to steer your business, resources, partners, customers, and priorities.
Most importantly Roadmap to Profitable Growth lays out the immutable principles for business success in the chaotic landscape that defines today's markets. You can't help but walk away from this books thinking, "Damn, I should know all of this. So why don't I practice it?" The answer, which the book points to repeatedly, is that knowing is a world apart from doing.
If I had my way every leader would have to read this book once a year to keep reminding themselves of what really is important. A fast, powerful, and practical bible for business professionals.
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AN EMAIL THAT CERTAINLY MADE MY DAY…A VERY NICE GROUP OF COMMENTS ABOUT ROADMAP TO PROFITABLE GROWTH
"Thank you for sending me a copy of "Roadmap...". Just finished reading it cover to cover. Congratulations on an excellent book!! You have so many "Gems" in it that the whole book is a Big Gem. Too many nuggets of wisdom, page after page! Of course, I plan to recommend it to my MBA students and others…" This was from an old friend, Raj Aggarwal, who is a distinguished professor at U. of Akron, but also one of the smartest guys I know (I said so before he complimented my book--many times.) When you get compliments like this, it's time to go take a shower and let your head shrink back to normal proportions. But it sure feels good!
FOR THOSE WHO ARE AT OR NEAR RETIREMENT…OF THOSE WHO HOPE TO RETIRE SOMEDAY
This is a very important article. It means the "old rules no longer apply." How often have you heard that lately. Read it and consult your advisor. If you don't have an advisor I can recumbent one for you--no obligation, just someone I have worked with that I know will do a good job for you. I know a couple in Columbus and at least one in the Cleveland area, and maybe even one in Knoxville, TN! Just ask! Just when you thought you had this investing and retirement planning thing all figured out…they changed the rules… and the economic conditions…
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I'VE WRITTEN MANY TIMES ABOUT JOHN MAULDIN AND GARY HALBERT, AND PUBLISHED SNIPPETS FROM THEIR NEWSLETTERS.
THIS ONE IS ESPECIALLY APPROPRIATE FOLLOWING THE PRIOR ITEM.
Is The Government Lying To Us About Inflation? Yes!
In today’s Outside the Box, Gary D. Halbert (my old and very dear friend and former business partner of many years) reminds us about a few significant facts concerning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that mainstream economists and the media tend to ignore. The central question is whether the CPI is really indicative of the actual inflation rate. Not likely, says Gary, since the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which compiles the CPI, has engaged in methodological shenanigans over the past couple decades (as has been well documented by John Williams of ShadowStats, among others). The upshot of all their monkeying with the numbers is that the official rate of inflation may be two to four times lower than the actual rate (which is rather convenient if you’re a government bureaucrat trying to hold down interest costs and Social Security payments).
These changes are hotly debated in academic circles. There are many economists who agree with the changes and can show with their models that inflation is low. That is the currently accepted wisdom, or what passes for it. The problem is that inflation only shows up, as one person put it, in the things we actually buy. If your main costs are food, energy, education, and healthcare (ring any bells?), then inflation is a great deal higher than 2%. Other items are actually falling in price. It comes down to the mix of items in the calculations and whether you buy into the concepts of substitution (if beef gets too expensive we buy hamburger rather than steak) and “hedonics,” which says that prices of products drop over time as quality and manufacturing efficiency improve, so the calculation of inflation should take this into account.
Which means you can have official inflation at a low level (or even falling for certain items), while the amount you actually spend out of your very real pocket is rising! And thus the debate.
Having refreshed us on the basic techniques of CPI massage, Gary turns to food and energy, which the BLS includes in “headline CPI” but omits from “core CPI.” He points out that while headline CPI jumped an unexpected 0.7% in February, core CPI rose only 0.2%. That is, food and energy price increases accounted for more than 70% of the rise. “Not good for the economy,” he notes.
And of course, this is all bad news for unwary investors, since
Those who believe that inflation is only 2%, when it may be 5-8%, may be making investment decisions that are almost guaranteed to erode the purchasing power of their money over time. This is especially true with low-yielding investments such as CDs, Treasuries, etc.
Gary wraps up by taking a look at “chained CPI,” which he explains as follows:
[C]hained CPI assumes that when prices rise, consumers will resort to entirely different products, rather than just seeking a cheaper brand. For example, if beef prices rise, chained CPI would assume that consumers might opt for chicken to save money.
The chained CPI debate is raging as we speak: I got an email from the AARP this morning, urging me to tell my Senators to say no to chained CPI being used to calculate Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) – sounds like they may vote today (Friday) on a bill to do just that. But as Gary points out, we either calculate benefits using chained CPI – which, yes, is tough on those living on a fixed income – or we eliminate the cap on salary subject to Social Security taxation (that is, we raise taxes). As Gary says, “Either way, somebody’s got to pay, and it might end up being a little [of] both.”
Author of the Award Winner: THE COMPLEXITY CRISIS, the exciting novel: THE CHINESE CONSPIRACY, and co-author of HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY: Leadership Lessons from the Obama Presidency
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