THE ENTERPRISE--WHAT DOES 2014 HAVE IN STORE FOR US?--SPECIAL DOUBLE EDITION
SHARE WITH EVERYONE YOU THINK WILL ENJOY IT! HAPPY NEW YEAR.
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HERE WE ARE AT THE START OF ANOTHER NEW YEAR--THE 13TH FOR THE ENTERPRISE (started in 2001)
Since 13 is my lucky number, and has significance in a lot of other cultures…I will cover a wide range of topics--very briefly--from close at hand to further into the future. I won't make "hard predictions," but rather will lean one way or another, and explain why I am leaning the way I am.
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KEY POINT TO REMEMBER THROUGH ALL OF THIS IS WHAT I SAID TO A PLANT MANAGER 35 YEARS AGO:
"When things are this screwed up and we are still alive and operating, think of all the opportunities there are for big improvements, if only we can find and capitalize on them." Being in the middle of a mess isn't all bad news--as long as you are able to start fixing things.
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CHINA IS POISONING ITS PEOPLE…AND THEY ARE GROWING RESTLESS
Between air pollution so bad that highways and airports must be closed due to low visibility, and ground contamination with heavy metals like Cadmium, Lead and others, the Chinese industrial might is sowing its "dark side." PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers in the air) should be below 25 to be acceptably healthy, but in China a level of 300 (A dangerous level according to the US-EPA) is common and some cities, like Harbin have reached 1000. Cancer cases are rampant. The public water supply in undrinkable without first boiling it. Rolling blackouts due to inadequate electrical capacity continue. 70% of China's power is still generated by dirty coal plants. Meanwhile the government spends on sending astronauts into orbit while its people die of poisons in the air, the water, and even the products (like baby formula) that are contaminated.
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CHINA'S EMPTY CITIES BUILT FOR WHAT? TO KEEP THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE UP?
In China, the "face-mask nation" because of air pollution, entire cities sit empty, awaiting some reason for people to live there. Hills and mountains are bulldozed to make more build-able land hoping to entice industries that will employ people and occupy the government built cities. Censorship is rampant. It almost makes the USA's problems sound "not too bad!" If this is the world's industrial giant of the next few decades, it has a lot to fix, first. (Recent surveys say that 30% of US companies surveyed plan to "reshore" jobs from Asia back to the USA within the next 12-18 months.)
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THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN HIGH, AND GROWTH HAS BEEN LOW
Will these two reverse in 2014? Maybe; somewhat. It is unrealistic to expect another big year for the stock market when the economy is still growing rather slowly and underemployment is still very high in the USA. Bonds are unattractive and if the Fed starts inching up rates, they will still be unattractive. The tapering of "QE3-created money" by the Fed is no longer going to fuel artificial growth. Manufacturing is at a plateau--awaiting to see if inventories are rebuild after the holiday sell off. Time will tell, but caution is still in the wind. Pressure is mounting on CEOs and companies to keep showing income growth. BUT how? Most markets are growing very slowly. The saviors could be innovation (new exciting products) and the energy resurgence of the USA. If only THE GOVERNMENT WOULD GET OUT OF THE WAY!
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THE DEPENDENCE-ENTITLEMENT ECONOMY THRIVES ON MISERY
The poor have so many ways to get welfare giveaways that is it amazing. The wealthy are doing OK…or better..due to their positions and ability to exploit their knowledge. Who suffers? The Broad Middle Class; they don't get the goodies; but they must pay for them. They can't play at the top with the big boys either. So they just struggle along…getting screwed at every turn…but the very people who claim to be looking out for them (Obama and his minions). The explosion in Disability has made it the new long-term unemployment thanks to cadre of corrupt judges who grant disability for a "hangnail" or less…and imagined musculoskeletal (back) issue or stress-induced depression (how do you disprove that?
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FROM THOMAS SOWELL'S COLUMN--ALWAYS INSIGHTFUL
…In a 1962 address to Congress, John F.Kennedy said, "It is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now." [Maybe the Democrats and Obama acolytes should heed those words.]
…This was not a new idea. John Maynard Keynes said, back in 1933, that "taxation may be so high as to defeat its object," that in the long run, a reduction of the tax rate "will run a better chance, than an increase, of balancing the budget." [Paul Krugman--here is your idol---pay attention!]
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THE TEA PARTY IS THE DEMOCRATS BEST ALLY
Sometimes, when a group starts with a noble goal and gets zealously carried away with its "rightness" the opposite occurs. Extremes are almost always the wrong solution, because nobody--no group--can know exactly what is right, what will work, and what to believe. Conservative groups like the Club for Growth (I've dropped my membership!), the Republican Liberty Caucus, and the Heritage Foundation (among many others) are doing at least as much harm to the GOP as they are doing good for the American people. The Republican party needs to find compromises around candidates based on electability--and an "Anything But Obama--or his Successor"--and in the mid-term elections, thank the zealous extreme candidates and choose more moderate and electable ones. Ted Cruz and Mike Lee--lead the compromise efforts--and stand down from jousting at windmills like "defunding Obamacare!"
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IF YOU THINK OBAMA IS BAD, HARRY REID MAY BE WORSE
The raft of un-Constitutional executive orders coming from the White House are about to be found illegal. The so-called "recess appointments" are among the most egregious, but there are many others. Reid's Senate obstructionism makes the House seem feeble by comparison. NOTHING is getting anywhere with Harry Reid running the Senate--unless HE wants it to move ahead. Whether he is supporting Obama, channeling him or just being his normal obnoxious self--is unclear. It is essential for America's future that the GOP retake the Senate and get rid of Reid.
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THE EARNINGS GAP IS A SYMPTOM OF TWO BIGGER PROBLEMS--ENVY AND IDEOLOGY
Human nature seems to indicate that if you have more of something than I have, I want some of yours--whether I deserve it or not. Therein ENVY is the true problem behind the anger about the gap between the top earners and the bottom ones. The second problem, IDEOLOGY says that it is only fair that if I have more than you do, I should give up some of mine and hand it to you, regardless of whether you earned it, deserved it or not. That is actually the height of UNFAIRNESS. Could someone explain that to President Obama? Maybe his daughters should. If they re getting good grades in their elite private school, then they should give back part of the Grade Point Average to poorer students, who either through lack of effort or intellect, are doing less well. See how that plays out at home Mr. President?
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INCOME EQUALITY PART 2: BETTER AS A GOP INITIATIVE?
I have proposed to a couple of members of the House that the GOP should seize the Income Gap as a GOP issue, and explain to the American people how the president who is touting it as his big deal--HAS ACTUALLY MADE IT WORSE WHILE HE'S BEEN IN OFFICE! Additionally, if we could magically take all of the wealth in the USA and commandeer it (Obama's trying), then distribute it equally across every American adult--in about one decade (10 years, maybe less), almost all of the same people would have regained their position in the top earners ranks, and the bottom dwellers would have wasted their share of the money and be back at the bottom. Why? Effort, intellect, drive, talent, and on, and on…will win over the long term, and dependency teaches people nothing but how NOT to achieve!
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IS IT CONSTITUTIONAL FOR A PRESIDENT TO MODIFY A LAW AS HE WISHES, DURING ITS IMPLEMENTATION?
No! It is, however, reasonable for the "Executive Branch" to be allowed to "tweak" the interpretation of the law's wording to facilitate implementation. What is not reasonable is the choosing of winners and losers, favorites and broad scale redefinition of what the law says, how it was enacted. In the case of Obamacare, even the enactment was a joke. A political cram down, is the best way to describe it. Now that it doesn't work right, and it's staggering complexity and ignorance is coming to light, the President and his lackeys are trying to rewrite the law so it can work--somehow. I sure hope the Supreme Court steps in and puts a stop to this illegal activity.
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HOW NOT TO RUN A CITY, OR A STATE, OR A COUNTRY
Nominees:
CITY: Detroit--a total disaster--with no solution even on the horizon.
STATE: A tie: Illinois (the president's home state) and California (the land of ballot initiative craziness) both of which are do deeply in debt and insolvent that nothing short of massive financial defaults and write-offs can ever put things back in line.
COUNTRY: The USA. (A couple of southern European countries would have tied for this.) Spend $1.25-1.50 for every dollar of revenue. Penalize those citizens who are successful, but burdening them with new laws and taking away their hard earned wealth to redistribute to those who have no idea how to do anything but take handouts.
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IMMIGRATION REFORM--A BIG OBAMA INITIATIVE--TO BUY ENOUGH VOTES TO ASSURE HIS "SUCCESSOR" A WIN
First of all, don't try to fix everything at once. (That doesn't work--see Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, etc.) Second, start by issuing all Americans an official SECURE ID CARD…and making that a requirement for every privilege of American freedom: Voting, driving, holding a job, opening a bank account, getting any kind of government benefit (we almost all get something) like tax breaks, food stamps (etc.), and entering/leaving the country (along with a linked Passport. No ID, no nothing. Get all the illegals to sign up for IDs. Adapt state driver licensing and voter registration sites to be the issuers, along with most Federal and State offices.
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DON'T CELEBRATE THE RECOVERY JUST YET
Estimates say a 2.7% gain in holiday spending but with fewer shoppers. We will see as more figures come out. Retailers will make less profit due to massive discounting done to drive his increase. A Nov. 7 Rasmussen poll show 39% of Americans believe the JOB market is the same as it was; 38% think it is WORSE, and only 19% think it is BETTER. No big surprise. Obama, et. al. has Nono clue how to create economic growth and jobs. All they do is take wealth away from those who earn it, pass it through the inefficient bureaucracy to waste some of it and then redistribute it to those who neither deserve it, nor will spend it productively. Todays jobs report proves it: 74,000 jobs added in Dec. new low in recent years. When leadership is clueless, what do you expect?
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AND THAT'S NOT ALL OF THE STORY
Add in lifetime unemployment benefits--which is where the USA is heading--and why should anyone look for job, when the government will take care of them. Obamacare was a giant step to do this. The latest proof was the anemic job creation number for Nov. 74,000 and two to the largest growth sectors were retail and temps…but low wage jobs. The publicized unemployment rate is becoming a joke…down to 6.7…be cause a huge number of people left the work force. Why? Because they can live on the government dole without working on the measly low wage jobs being created by an Obama economy,.
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RONALD REAGAN, IN 1961, PREDICTED THIS IN A RADIO ADDRESS ON SOCIALIZED MEDICINE
Radio Address on Socialized Medicine, 1961:
"My name is Ronald Reagan. I have been asked to talk on several subjects that have to do with the problems of the day. ...Back in 1927, an American socialist, Norman Thomas, six times candidate for president on the Socialist Party ticket, said the American people would never vote for socialism. But he said under the name of liberalism the American people will adopt every fragment of the socialist program. … One of the traditional methods of imposing statism or socialism on a people has been by way of medicine. It’s very easy to disguise a medical program as a humanitarian project. Most people are a little reluctant to oppose anything that suggests medical care for people who possibly can’t afford it.Now, the American people, if you put it to them about socialized medicine and gave them a chance to choose, would unhesitatingly vote against it. We had an example of this. Under the Truman administration, it was proposed that we have a compulsory health insurance program for all people in the United States, and, of course, the American people unhesitatingly rejected this.So, with the American people on record as not wanting socialized medicine, Congressman Ferrand introduced the Ferrand Bill. This was the idea that all people of Social Security age should be brought under a program of compulsory health insurance. Now this would not only be our senior citizens, this would be the dependents and those who are disabled, this would be young people if they are dependents of someone eligible for Social Security. Now, Congressman Ferrand brought the program out on that idea of just for that group of people. But Congressman Ferrand was subscribing to this foot-in-the-door philosophy, because, he said, “[I]f we can only break through and get our foot inside the door, then we can expand the program after that.”Walter Reuther said, “It’s no secret that the United Automobile Workers is officially on record as backing a program of national health insurance.” And by national health insurance, he meant socialized medicine for every American. Well, let’s see what the socialists themselves have to say about it. They say, “Once the Ferrand Bill is passed, this nation will be provided with a mechanism for socialized medicine capable of indefinite expansion in every direction until it includes the entire population.” Well, we can’t say we haven’t been warned. ...It is presented in the idea of a great emergency that millions of our senior citizens are unable to provide needed medical care. But this ignores the fact that, in the last decade, 127 million of our citizens in just 10 years have come under the protection of some form of privately owned medical or hospital insurance. Now the advocates of this bill, when you try to oppose it, challenge you on an emotional basis. They say, “What would you do, throw these poor old people out to die with no medical attention?” That’s ridiculous, and of course no one’s advocated it. ...What reason could the other people have for backing a bill which says, “We insist on compulsory health insurance for senior citizens on the basis of age alone, regardless of whether they’re worth millions of dollars, whether they have an income, whether they’re protected by their own insurance, whether they have savings”? I think we can be excused for believing that, as ex-Congressman Ferrand said, this was simply an excuse to bring about what they wanted all the time -- socialized medicine.James Madison in 1788, speaking to the Virginia Convention, said: “Since the general civilization of mankind, I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachment of those in power, than by violent and sudden usurpations.” The privacy, the care that is given to a person, the right to choose a doctor, the right to go from one doctor to the other … this is a freedom that I wonder whether any of us have the right to take from any human being. ... From here it is a short step to all the rest of socialism. ...The Founding Fathers -- for the first time -- established the idea that you and I had within ourselves the God-given right and ability to determine our own destiny. ...What can we do about this? Well, you and I can do a great deal. We can write to our congressmen and our senators. We can say right now that we want no further encroachment on these individual liberties and freedoms. And at the moment, the key issue is we do not want socialized medicine. …Write those letters now; call your friends and tell them to write them. If you don’t, this program I promise you will pass just as surely as the sun will come up tomorrow, and behind it will come other federal programs that will invade every area of freedom as we have known it in this country until one day, as Norman Thomas said, we will awake to find that we have socialism. And if you don’t do this, and if I don’t do it, one of these days you and I are going to spend our sunset years telling our children, and our children’s children, what it once was like in America when men were free.
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IF YOU DIDN'T CATCH THIS ONE…CHECK IT OUT…A NEW TAX ON SMALL BUSINESSES
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NEWS FLASH…YOUR DEFENSE DEPARTMENT IS PROTECTING YOU WITH STAPLERS, DESKS, AND RED TAPE.
Compare to the Reagan era. Navy is down from 600 ships to 280. Army is down from 20 divisions to 10. Air Force has less than half the combat aircraft, and they average 28 years old. And on, and on. But the bureaucracy keeps on growing: from 7 Joint Task Force Staffs in 1987 to 250 of them now. New weapons systems now take 22 years to develop. This bureaucracy has over 1,500,000 civilian employees (800,000 civil servants and 700,000 contractors). Desk jockeys now far out-number active duty servicemen and women. At the latest GAO report, there is $411 billion of unfunded cost growth in Pentagon programs. Do you feel safer now? I sure don't! (FYI--Source: WSJ Op Ed piece by John Lehman, Secy of Navy under Reagan and member of the 9/11 commission.)
MY POST FROM TODAY'S-- www.THEBRENNERBRIEF.com
The Tragedy of Obama’s Chronic Unemployment
The latest mission of President Obama is to extend unemployment benefits once again—perhaps over and over, forever! This results from the tragedy of Obama’s chronic unemployment. The saddest part of this whole issue is that Barack Obama is actually harming the very people he claims to be helping (by throwing taxpayer money to solve a problem he helped make worse than ever before). The surest way to make people dependent is to reward them for doing nothing but being dependent.
It is as simple as the Park Service warning: “Please Do Not Feed the Animals” because the animals may grow dependent and not learn to take care of themselves.
Of course neither Obama nor his liberal minions understand the devastating effects of their misguided policies. They are simply “helping the poor people,” unwittingly helping them to remain poor, dependent and miserable. There are still about 14% of all Americans unemployed or underemployed. And that is with the workforce participation rate dropping to record low levels. (Why work when the government will pay you unemployment—and lot of other welfare benefits like Food Stamps indefinitely for just staying home?)
The real unemployment problem in America is the lack of economic growth and lack of job creation—good jobs that are not mostly low paying, or minimum wage jobs. But wait. The “Chosen One” has a solution to that too. Raise the minimum wage, so then the “poor people” in those jobs will be paid more per hour—until, that is—the company paying them decides it can’t stay in business doing that, and simply lays them off. Then it is the fault of big business bad guys or the GOP–or both.
By cramming his pet socialist project “Obamacare” down the throats of Americans, Obama has already changed the definition of a “standard work week” from 40 hours down to under 30 hours. This effectively cut 25% of the earnings of everyone in those jobs where employers couldn’t afford to pay for health insurance under Obamacare. The jobs numbers will still look artificially better. It takes 25+% more of those under 30 hour/week workers than it did of the 40-hours/week workers. Watch for the victory celebration. Jobs counted will go up. The income from them, will not; it will go down. More people will need unemployment too, as companies cut wage costs (and jobs), hoping to stay in business until something changes for the better–which it never will, as long as Obama occupies the White House.
The tragedy of Obama’s chronic unemployment is that it feeds upon itself and is self-perpetuating. When you add his burdensome regulations, his anti-business executive orders (un-Constitutional though they may be, like the NLRB case), and his tax and spend budgetary philosophy, America is headed on a downward slope from which it may never escape. But Barack Obama will no longer be in the White House by then. He’ll be on the “rubber-chicken” (speaking) circuit charging hundreds of thousands of dollars per appearance—and playing as much golf as ever. He and his wife will show up on all the liberal talk shows too. Won’t it grand to have a “celebrity president” who just finished destroying American freedoms, while driving the country into a future of recurring Euro-Socialist recessions?
Ironically, and tragically, the people most hurt by all of his ignorance and incompetent ideology are the very ones who voted him into office twice. I guess there is poetic justice in that after all. That is the tragedy of Obama’s chronic unemployment.
BEST, JOHN
DON'T MISS MY WEEKLY BLOG: http://www.thebrennerbrief.com/author/johnmariotti/
ON WED. MORNINGS.
THE ENTERPRISE COMES OUT BI-WEEKLY. Its content can also be found at my personal blog: http://mariotti.blogs.com/my_weblog/
John Mariotti
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