THE ENTERPRISE--OUT OF CHAOS ... COMES ORDER?
Jeb Bush is out of the race. Never gained traction, in spite of huge spending—especially negative spending against Rubio by Bush’s SuperPac Right to Rise. While he ran a decent campaign, his SuperPac was reprehensible. Thanks for reading the wishes of the voters and getting out.
John Kasich will hang in there, even though he’s short money. Maybe a few Jeb supporters will help Kasich, but he’s still in the also ran category in spite of some really good televised Town Hall moments in SC. Kasich was terrific—credible, sensitive, mature, humorous and a credible “presidential” demeanor.
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Ben Carson can hang in there, without spending much, as an also ran. Where Carson supporters would go if he dropped out is anybody’s guess. Few people really think he has any chance. Maybe he’s running for VP spot?
Ted Cruz bet the ranch on SC and was edge out by Rubio for second place. It’s more a victory of Rubio’s acceleration than a win in campaign delegates, as Trump gets them all form SC by virtue of his double digit win. I still don’t like Cruz. I think he’s a snake who, more even than most politicians , says what the needs, and sends his acolytes to do the dirty work (Sounds like Obama, right?) It amazes me how many people “buy” his words and demeanor.
Now the real race begins. Cruz may win his home state of Texas. Rubio will be hard pressed, but not impossible, to win any of the Super Tuesday (Mar. 1) races. His message does seem to be resonating more, and he should get a bunch of money and support from former Bush supporters. Trump’s momentum is huge. Talk of a Trump-Rubio possibility has started. Rubio wouldn’t dare consider it, but a clue will be how hard Trump goes after Rubio…or if he just keeps pounding Cruz.
On the other side, Hillary eked out a NV win, and her super-delegates are a big number (a Democratic party control to make sure the candidate they want to win, does.) She’s still a damaged candidate, but so many folks will vote for anyone who breathes and has a (D) after their name on the ballot, that she will be formidable.
The GOP “consolidation” of candidates can’t come soon enough—but won’t come until Mid-march at the soonest.
A point Rubio has made, and was made visually in SC: On his podium was a Causation (Rep. Trey Gowdy), a Black (Sen. Tim Scott), and Indian (Gov. Nikki Haley) and a Hispanic (Rubio). So who’s the party with diversity? Trump may have turned off a lot of Hispanics and other immigrants with his border talk, but Rubio sure won’t. Rubio’s challenge is the same as it’s always been—his shortage of hands on experience, and keeping his message in the middle of his actual and targeted constituents—not a simple task.
I’m still for Rubio for the reasons I’ve written before. Trump is toning down his rhetoric a bit…but still must be himself to sustain is zealous supporters. Hang on. March will tell the tale. A key factor is “electability.” Can Trump beat Hillary? Can Rubio? How do we know?
POLLS ARE NOT ELECTIONS
History has proven how wrong they can be. Beware…and understand the MOE (Margin of Error) of these small telephone surveys of 400-700-1200 people
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A FEW NON-POLITICAL TIDBITS
BRICS:
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) are dropping fast and all are suffering from big declines in economic growth. These were to be the next big thing—but maybe not yet. Commodity softness, due in large part to the drop in China’s demand, has crippled all of them to varying degrees.
P&G
New CEO David Taylor still has a lot of work to do. Top line growth has stalled, so he’s attacking the cost line. Smart move, but alone, it’s not enough. China and other foreign sales are also lagging, as P&G is usually the highest priced choice—not good in a downturn. Cutting a lot of brands and products to simplify only works if you cut the OH associated with the reduced complexity. He needs to step on the innovation (not proliferation) and keep pressure on lowering costs/expenses.
CHINA
Chinese aggression in the South China Sea continues to be a concern. The missiles sighted were not actually in the Spratly Islands, the largest, farthest reaching site Chinese territory grabs. they were on Woody Islands, part of the Parcel Islands, still far offshore not nearly as far as the Spratly group. Taiwan, Vietnam also claim to have rights to the Parcel islands. This could turn ugly.
CHINA-II
China during the past few years has been using more concrete than the rest of the world combined—by a lot—building roads, cities, and so forth, using debt to finance it all. Cement mixer bodies sit rusting now that this unwarranted growth has slowed dramatically. Nobody knows what to believe about China’s true growth rate. It’s sure not above 7%, and could be lots lower, pumped up by rigged statistics.
DRIVING WITH A BROKEN SPEEDOMETER
It’s no excuse if you get a speeding ticket. Neither is the idiotic comfort with the way the US measures and reports unemployment. The government is non to keep statistics long after their accuracy and usefulness is gone—or dangerously wrong. It’s time for the government to get its systems up to date and its metrics too. Huge market reactions occur to reports of employment or economic growth only to have the corrected by large adjustments a month or two later—with very little explanation.
NAVIGATING WITH A BROKEN COMPASS
There is no question that many of the metrics used by the immense DC Federal Government bureaucracy are inaccurate—often dangerously so. I don’t know if it has been corrected, but not many years ago, the government counted exports of Microsoft Software (valued in hundreds or thousands) as if it were the cost of the disk and jewel case it ships in (plastic articles, NOI—a few dollars worth at most.) For every indicator the government issues, there are redundant measures what often contradict it (how many “budget offices” are there making estimates?) Then there is the “intelligence network”—consisting of between 16 and 20 official sources (CIA, DIA, NHS, FBI, Secret Service, etc. etc.) and a handful of “off the books, dark intel organizations. Do you think these people work together? Are you kidding? Their systems often won;t even talk to each other…and if they could…they’d be vulnerable to hackers.
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IF YOU ARE DISCOURAGED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF A DEMOCRATIC VICTORY IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL RACE—READ THIS:
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SOMETIMES BIG NUMBERS SIMPLY BECOME INCOMPREHENSIBLE
I received this from a correspondent, and it struck me that nobody can comprehend the size of numbers when they get too big. It’s just like the measurement of Light-Years in space travel. Light travels at 186,000 miles per second. That along his incomprehensible to most people. The distance light can travel in a year? That’s a really big, gigantic number of miles.
Now we come to the American debt heading for $19 Trillion soon. Trillions of dollars committed in decade has become a common term in government. One of the candidates, Bernie Sanders clearly has no comprehension about large numbers. He’s too busy stirring crowds of angry people, especially naive youths into a fervor about “free everything.” Free health care, free colleges, and who knows what else. Donald Trump talks about his wealth, which at about $5 Billion, is a lot. Former NUC Mauor Michael Bloomberg is talking about mounting an independent campaign that he self funds. He’s worth $35-40 Billion. That is big money. But compared to the US deficits and debt measured in Trillions, it is “chicken-feed.”
You will see what some of these big dollar amounts look like in the pictures that follow. I hope they all come through email OK. The simple fact is that no matter how many times Bernie Sanders (and Barack Obama too) talks about taxing the rich to pay for their outrageous spending, the IRS could talk ALL of the wealth of the wealthiest Americans and it wouldn’t even come close to covering the average annual deficit during Obama’s presidency. (Not the whole budget, or for the whole 7+ years—just the average deficit for one year!) Yes, your read that right. The rich don’t have enough money to even cover the USA’s typical annual budget deficit—and that doesn’t even touch the American debt which is about 20 times a large.
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--Trump may win the nomination, but unless he turns out millions of new zealots and frustrated moderate Democrats to vote for him, he will lose, due to his large negatives. He's a "love him or hate him" candidate.
--Cruz is an unelectable snake...those who called him a liar (Trump, Rubio) are right. His holier than thou glibness is sickening. He's penthouse smart, but way too farroght (and phony) to be elected.
--Carson is a formerly great neurosurgeon who has no business up there, and needs to bow out.
--Bush is a bad joke, turned mean, but with lots of $. He, too, is unelectable, because the Bush name is a liability, ... but he bought the NH primary finish with over $40mm of ads, (many negative, most against Rubio or Trump)
--Kasich is a good, tough governor who know how to govern and do many necessary things, but is a lousy speaker with a weak media presence. He'd be a good president, but can't win the election!
--That leaves only Marco Rubio, a bright, articulate, first term Senator, who is the only one who wins in polls against Democratic opponents (Hillary), and her campaign knows that and fears him. He can make up in leadership and inspiration for what he lacks in experience--IF, AND ONLY IF, he is smart enough to surround himself with seasoned people who will tell him when he's wrong ...and help him to be right, most of the time.
There are lots of smart patriots around. He also needs someone who will keep him from going along with the herd mentality and prevailing thinking--which is mostly wrong. Kasich could, but is not likely to want a VP spot.
When Bush comes in 4th or 5th in SC, his big contributors will start looking for a new man to back. The problem is that Bush can be a spoiler if he decides to attack Rubio in FL!
--Cruz is an unelectable snake...those who called him a liar (Trump, Rubio) are right. His holier than thou glibness is sickening. He's penthouse smart, but way too farroght (and phony) to be elected.
--Carson is a formerly great neurosurgeon who has no business up there, and needs to bow out.
--Bush is a bad joke, turned mean, but with lots of $. He, too, is unelectable, because the Bush name is a liability, ... but he bought the NH primary finish with over $40mm of ads, (many negative, most against Rubio or Trump)
--Kasich is a good, tough governor who know how to govern and do many necessary things, but is a lousy speaker with a weak media presence. He'd be a good president, but can't win the election!
--That leaves only Marco Rubio, a bright, articulate, first term Senator, who is the only one who wins in polls against Democratic opponents (Hillary), and her campaign knows that and fears him. He can make up in leadership and inspiration for what he lacks in experience--IF, AND ONLY IF, he is smart enough to surround himself with seasoned people who will tell him when he's wrong ...and help him to be right, most of the time.
There are lots of smart patriots around. He also needs someone who will keep him from going along with the herd mentality and prevailing thinking--which is mostly wrong. Kasich could, but is not likely to want a VP spot.
When Bush comes in 4th or 5th in SC, his big contributors will start looking for a new man to back. The problem is that Bush can be a spoiler if he decides to attack Rubio in FL!
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Please DO NOT use older [email protected] and [email protected] addresses—even if you get an email from one of them. They have been UNRELIABLE, and sometimes work and at other times do not!
See my commentary at http://www.brennerbrief.com/author/johnmariotti/ and
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