A WISE MAN ONCE TOLD ME, “POSTPONED PERFECTION IS THE ENEMY OF PLANNED PROGRESS.”
Which is why this edition of THE ENTERPRISE is at least a week or two late coming out. I started to bite off more than I could chew, and figured it out. Rather than take the old editorial pen to what I wrote (which was how I saw things at that time a couple of weeks ago…I’m going to send it to all of you to read and think about.
AN FYI—THEDAILYJOURNALIST.COM. I HAVE DECIDED TO BEGIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DIFFERENT ON-LINE PUBLICATION
I have not even attempted to look at all the parts of it. I hope there aren’t some “bad ones” buried where I didn’t look. My goal was to increase my audience and spread the reach of what I write. Whether this one will do that, I won’t know until I write and post several articles on it. It delayed me getting THE ENTERPRISE out while I was learning how to submit what I write, and so forth—a seemingly simple process until you actually do it. Then file formats are more or less desirable, there is the deal with passwords and access, and of course figuring out if the “editorial policy” was OK with what I was planning to submit. Time will tell. Once I find links to my stuff, I’ll add them at the bottom of my emails and THE ENTERPRISE in case someone wants to go see them. I plan to mirror some of the pieces, either in the form of excerpts, or longer versions on here.
AS OF NOW, GO LOOK AT THE REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM ELECTORAL MAP
The battle for the GOP is enormous because the Democrats seem to have a stranglehold on about 200+ of the 270 electoral votes needed to elect a president. Regardless of how flawed the GOP candidate, Donald Trump may be, Hillary Clinton is worse—far worse. For every unfavorable term used to describe Trump, there are two, nastier, bigger ones that apply to her. IN the end, it comes down to two points.
Donald Trump means well—he is just a hot mess getting where he finally wants to be.
Hillary doesn’t mean well—she is a selfish, devious, dishonest, untruthful, self-serving, power-hungry, reprehensible person.
Harsh words could follow, but that sums it up.
Trump may be all of the things that are said about him. I’d still trust him in the White House instead of her.
WHAT HAPPENS IN 5 MONTHS IS ANYBODY’S GUESS
Even the final question of who will be running is a little uncertain, since Hillary the Hag has been revealed to be a criminal on so many levels, even Clintonian contrivances may still not save her. However, Barack Obama can save her, unless he thinks she’s going to lose. Then Obama will have his (In)-Justice Department come after her and bring Joe Biden out of the bullpen. Biden, while far from desirable is a much less flawed candidate than Hillary Clinton (or Bernie Sanders).
THE LATEST EVIDENCE OF THE OBAMA DISASTER’S IMPACT ON THE PEOPLE OF THE USA
Unemployment rate drops when many fewer people have jobs! HUH? Obama’s hubris is unparalleled, because he talks like he thinks he’s done a great job.
CFPB—AN UNREGULATED, UNCONTROLLED MONSTER AGENCY—NEEDS TO BE STOPPED AND ABOLISHED
Meanwhile, another of his totally unmanaged regulatory disaster agencies the CFPB—Consumer Financial Protection Board—( bad joke of a name) which reports to…………exactly NO ONE. Not to Congress. Not even the the president/emperor Obama who caused it to be created, has targeted the PayDay Lending businesses in the USA, to put them out of business. (A great day for illegal Loan Sharks, because that’s all that will be left for the millions of Americans who willingly and knowingly pay the very high interest rates & fees to PayDay Lenders—because they need the money NOW!
LATEST ON THE ACA (OBAMACARE), ALSO A JOKE OF A NAME, “AFFORDABLE CARE ACT” AFFORDABLE BY WHOM
Insurance companies led by Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield are lining up in the group that much SUE the government to be paid the fees that were promised when costs overrun the agreed upon amounts. Anthem is asking for $147mm for just 2015 losses, that the government wrote in a clause to protect, and is now reneging on that clause.
Record 94,708,000 Americans Not in Labor Force; Participation Rate Drops in May by Susan Jones | published on June 3, 2016
A record 94,708,000 Americans were not in the labor force in May — 664,000 more than in April — and the labor force participation rate dropped two-tenths of a point to 62.6 percent, near its 38-year low, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. When President Obama took office in January 2009, 80,529,000 Americans were not participating in the labor force; since then, 14,179,000 Americans have left the workforce — some of them retiring and some just quitting because they can’t find work. “By almost every economic measure, America is better off than when I came here at the beginning of my presidency,” President Obama told the people of Elkhart, Indiana three days ago. “We cut unemployment in half, years before a lot of economists thought we would.” The unemployment rate in May dropped to 4.7 percent, BLS reported, less than half of its Obama-era high of 10 percent in October 2009.
THE GOVERNMENT’S CONVOLUTED LOGIC: IF ALL AMERICANS LOST THEIR JOBS & DIDN’T LOOK FOR NEW ONES, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WOULD BE ZERO!
Got that? It leaves me speechless, so there’s nothing more to say on this topic except—IDIOTIC FOOLS!!
NOW—IF THIS QUESTION—“WHAT NEXT?” ISN’T ON YOUR MIND, OR ON YOUR LIPS, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT?
This is always the key question. From where you are now, what comes next, and right after that comes, how will that affect me? The future is filled with uncertainty. Nobody can actually predict the future with great accuracy because human nature makes the future volatile. People and events change and those changes influence other changes, and so forth, until your entire baseline of knowledge about the future is either useless, or outdated. What you can do, and what we can do, is predict some parts of the future “directionally.” Why? Because events that have already happened have set some things in motion, and once in motion, they will continue until or unless something is done to change their course or their momentum. (That’s not so profound—its based o one of Isaac Newton’s Laws of Physics about momentum and inertia. “An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted on by an unbalanced force.”
WITH THIS TIMELESS TRUTH WE CAN PREDICT SOME THINGS “DIRECTIONALLY” BUT NOT QUANTITATIVELY/ABSOLUTELY
US Presidential Election: The likely candidates for president in the USA will be Donald Trump (Rep.) and Hillary Clinton (Dem.) and Gary Johnson (Lib.). One of the first two will probably win the presidency—but strange things do happen—like none of them getting the requisite 270 electoral votes, which would throw the choice of the president into the House of Representatives, in which Republicans hold a majority, but not all Republicans are happy with Trump. So hang on. Uncertainty and volatility might reign.
US Economy, Jobs and Growth:
The US Economy is still growing at a very slow, erratic pace averaging about 2%/year. That does not generate enough tax revenue to support the profligate spending of the US government—spending at a current rate of $500 Billion more each year than comes in revenue—and that is down from over $1Trillion/hear for Barack Obama’s first term. The US government is bloated, redundant, inefficient and misdirected because of terrible leadership. Congress’ members are so worried about being reelected that they do irrational things. The two parties are do biased in different directions (Rep.-right leaning conservative, Dem.-left leaning liberal) that they can barely agree on whether the sun comes up in the East and sets in the West. That makes the process of operating the government a mess. Add to that an ego-driven narcissist in the White House, with an agenda all his own (barely related to what the American people want), and America is in a real mess.
A Giant Mess to Clean Up
Whoever wins the presidency next will inherit a huge, over spent, over regulated, over bureaucratic mess—and fixing it will require in Newton’s Law terms—“one hell of an unbalanced force.” Hillary Clinton won’t try to fix it, rather she will continue to worsen the policies and practices that made the mess (Political inertia.) Donald Trump might make the mess better, or worse, and nobody knows which. His campaign boasts give only a few cues as to “how” he could go about doing "what" he claims he plans to do. Saying “What” is easy; saying “How”—and then doing it is devilishly hard, especially with a Congress who struggles to agree on much of anything.
Debt & Deficits are at the core of the American financial mess—but they aren’t alone there. The nearly total lack of discipline and fiscal sanity by members of the government are right there in the middle of the mess too. Rational organizations, whether companies, families or governments, would seem to realize that when there is not enough money coming in, they should stop spending. Not so with this deficit, borrowing crazy governmental world we live in. Whether is it Greece, Italy, Puerto Rico, the city of Detroit or Baltimore, the State of Illinois or California, or the US Government—rational responsible and discipline are words that seldom come to mind to describe their behaviors. Banks return overdrawn checks, put a hold on the account and charge an overdraft fee.
If You don’t want to borrow money, just print more! (Or have the Fed create it digitally) Fiscal responsibility be damned.
But not the US government because it 1) controls the printing presses, so it can print more money, 2) has the ungoverned Federal Reserve which conjures money out of thin are, with a few strokes on a computer keyboard, and 3) borrows more and more money to over the deficit, until the national debt of the US alone will soon approach TWENTY TRILLION DOLLARS. Interest alone, at today’s low interest rates amounts to $400+ Billion EACH YEAR. Hardly ever, does any government agency, or elected official resort to the old-fashioned, logical, disciplined and fiscally responsible solution: when you need more money for something unexpected, you must cut back on spending on something else to make that money available. Not any more! Just borrow more and run up the deficit and national debt. Interest rates have been held artificially low for a decade, and thus interest cost on Americas ridiculous debt is still $400 BILLION, however for each percentage point interest rates go up, this interest bill increases about $200 Billion PER YEAR. A 5% jump in interest rates (not outrageous based on past history) would cost the USA almost $1 TRILLION PER YEAR IN INTEREST ALONE!
Jobs and Growth could solve this massive debt and deficit problem, if only the American government would “remove its regulatory foot from the neck of American industry.” Yes, the tax code is outdated, stupid and needs to be redone. There is at least $2 Trillion in US$ sitting abroad with American corporations who are loathe to bring it back and be taxed at rates in excess of 30% on it. That money could fuel growth and jobs, which would create more tax revenue to reduce the debts and deficits. Regulations have exploded under the Obama “Big Government Knows Best” policies, and have stifled the economic recovery, forcing it to remain in the 2% range—half of what prior recoveries have enjoyed.
Free Trade is not necessarily Fair Trade
Sure, the US has been victimized by lopsided tariffs (free trade is not necessarily fair trade), and by currency manipulation on a global scale (China being the most common culprit). Addressing that will not bring back the US jobs that went to Asia and other places. Those were yesterday’s jobs that benefited by cheap labor and lopsided tariffs. They will not come back; many will soon not even exist in those Asian countries, as their wages rise and their countries develop and face environment and infrastructural needs of their own. For America to reclaim jobs, it must reclaim 21st Century jobs, not try to grab back outdated 20th Century work. For America to reclaim 21st Century jobs, it must redevelop a 21st Century work force, with the skills and the will-to-work necessary to compete. One source of good prospective employees are the large number of returning military veterans. They have learned discipline, in many cases, shown courage under fire, and now desperately need a way to support themselves/families and find renewed meaning in their lives. Many have learned important technical skills too.
Misconceptions and misunderstanding = failed solutions
That is a huge task, and one which very few political leaders even understand. America’s government leaders still don’t understand (after 2-3 dramatic lessons in preceding decades) that increasing the Capital Gains Tax rate doesn’t increase tax revenue—it decreases it. This was proven decades ago, in the Reagan era, when slashing the Capital Gains tax rate resulted in an explosion of investment, growth and jobs. To create economic growth requires three enormous steps: 1) Cut the tax rates on Capital Gains and repatriation of foreign profits (conditioned on those being reinvested in American enterprises), 2) Eliminate a decade+ worth of non-sensical regulations—just wipe them out—and then reinstate only those that dramatically and demonstrably are needed to protect health and safety (and wipe out most of the bureaucratic agencies who protect their job security by adding more regulations. “Untie the hands of American business, so it can compete. But those two are not enough. 3) Choose the industries, first 10, then 20, then 50 and then 100+ in which America can compete with a reduced regulatory burden and a “fair” (but not “free”) trade systems of tariffs. (Some think “mirrored tariffs” are best; others believe selective imposition of tariffs on US imports, and/or reduction of tariffs on US exports would be better.)
Repatriating American Jobs (lots more coming on this topic)
The key step is to “Repatriating American Jobs” identify where those “new-job-creating companies and plants are located—or will be located—and how to staff them with American workers—American jobs. This sounds like what is criticized as crony capitalism—choosing winners and losers—but it isn’t if the choices are made based not on ideology, but on economic competitiveness. Pick industries where the US is close to being globally competitive and give those a boost so they can grown. Then move to the next group of industries and do the same thing. Tax credits for R & D, for investment in new manufacturing technology, for investment in new IT for global supply chain and production management, and so forth, will create a new industrial revolution in the USA. It will be very different from the 20th Century version. Many fewer, higher skill jobs in each company with little of the old hand labor. Many new technologies need to be employed to speed delivery, increase quality and lower costs.
A wise friend once asked, “If you are writing about business issues, why are so many of your thoughts on politics and government/legislation?” My answer was that business operates in an environment where nearly everything it does is influenced greatly by politics and government/legislation, thus you cannot develop strategies and execution in business without taking into account these enormous influences.
WITH THAT LONG OPENING SECTION, I’LL WIND UP THIS EDITION, AND PICK UP THE WHAT NEXT? TOPIC IN A FUTURE EDITION.
ANYONE INTERESTED IN HOW OUR GOVERNMENT IS SUPPOSED TO WORK WILL ENJOY THIS NEXT ARTICLE FROM THE WSJ, BY SENATE LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL
FINALLY, SOME GREAT LEADERSHIP READING THAT WILL BE USEFUL TO MANY.
(TOM K. IS A VERY BRIGHT AND INSIGHTFUL GUY)
The Most Important Skill Of Every Great Leader
Great leaders ask these three questions when making any decision.
Great decision-making is one of the hallmarks of great leadership. But how do you develop great decision-making skills? Are some people just born with the ability to make good decisions by using innately logical minds and good intuition?
So, here's a great piece of trivia that puts the pitfalls of decision-making into perspective. Soccer goalkeepers trying to block a penalty kick can't wait until the ball is kicked to figure out how to block it; he or she will simply not have enough time to respond. The keeper has to make a decision on what part of the net to protect before the ball is kicked. You'd think that in this sort of set up the odds are 50/50; but they are not. Over 80% of penalty kicks score according to research at Ben-Guriono University in Israel. They reason for this is very counter intuitive but it tells us a lot about how decisions are made, especially in fast moving situations. According to the Ben-Guriono research, it turns out that the best way to stop a penalty kick is to just stay in the center of the net. But that's rarely what keepers do. When asked why they instead pick a side to jump to, in order to block the kick, keepers said that they felt much worse about goals that scored when they stayed in the center and didn't take action than those that scored when they did take action, by jumping to one side or the other. In other words the bias towards action rather than inaction was more compelling than the actual results! The same thing happens in most organizations; we take action even when the action is unnecessary.
The Holy Trinity of Decision Making
The reality is that good decision-making is a simple matter of sticking to some very basic guidelines, while everyone else wants to take a shortcut and just take action—any action. In my experience, the vast majority of decisions are actually non-decisions; they appear in the guise of a problem that has to be solved when the apparent problem actually has nothing to do the root cause of the issue at hand. For example, deciding how to streamline a process that shouldn't even exist to begin with. It’s like spending time and money to tune your car's engine so that it gets an extra five miles to the gallon when you only use it to drive two miles a day. This sort of decision overload leads to too much time in meetings, misallocation of resources, investment in outdated systems and processes, and ultimately a dysfunctional culture that feeds off of the need to overanalyze everything, no matter how insignificant. The reason for this poor organizational pathology is that people like to take action because it makes them feel as though they are creating value. Your role, as a leader, is to make sure that you and your organization don't get sucked into the black hole of decision-making just because it feels like progress.
The good news is that you can develop great decision-making skills just by asking three simple questions whenever you find yourself in a situation where a decision has to be made.
Question #1—Why are we making this decision?
The first and most important question to ask when making any decision is "Why are we doing this?" To use the keeper analogy, do we really have to move to block the shot? That sounds so incredibly simplistic that it is the easiest step to avoid. That's also why it's the hardest question to ask; everyone assumes the "why" is obvious, making it frustrating to even consider answering Why. Yet, this is one of the core techniques of the Six Sigma methodology, which suggests asking "why: at least five times in order to identify the root cause of an issue. Many decisions are masked in layers of complexity that need to pealed away in order to address the actual problem or opportunity. Yet, our instinct is to take action and solve the problem at hand. In these cases, like the goalkeeper, we are moving back and forth from side to side to create an illusion of action that makes us feel productive when it actually does nothing for the organization's effectiveness and bottom line. Learning to ask Why so that you can simply move beyond these time sinks may be one of the most critical skills you can develop and impart to your colleagues.
Question #2—When do we need to make this decision by?
The second temptation is always to go from Why to How. The problem is that How is almost always dependent on When. One of my favorite examples is the scene in Apollo 13 when the brilliant engineers at NASA have to figure out how to build a makeshift CO2 scrubber using duct tape, users manuals, and whatever else was available onboard the ill-fated orbiter and lunar lander. Given unlimited time they could easily have built many versions, tested each one, and refined the design to work perfectly. But they had minutes not hours to decide. Even in that scenario you can imagine at least one engineer saying, "But if we could just get a few more minutes this would be perfect! Can someone just ask the astronauts to hold their breath?"Whether you like it or not, the time you have to decide will determine the degree to which you can be creative about gathering and analyzing the variables involved in the decision. Often, just standing your ground is the best action to take, even thought it may feel like you're not in motion.
Question #3—How do we make the decision?
By the time you finally get to this question you know that the decision has both merit and a time constraint. The issue now is how to go about making the best decision possible. Great leaders make sure their team knows what the parameters of the decision are and keeps the team within those boundaries, while reassuring them that time and resources will rarely be adequate to anticipate all the repercussion of most decisions. The key isn’t predicting the future, but surviving it.
The Prescription: Do yourself a favor and try these three steps for the next two weeks. While I can’t guarantee the outcomes of your decision, I can assure you that not only will your ability to make decisions improve significantly, but you'll also become a much more effective leader in the process. Game on!
I HOPE I MADE UP FOR THE DELAY WITH LOTS OF CONTENT—AND SOME OF IT YOU FIND USEFUL OR INTERESTING OR PROVOCATIVE
Comments