Telling It Like It Is

THE ENTERPRISE—AN EXCITING AND UNPREDICTABLE NEW YEAR

 

WHERE AM I? WHO WOULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS A YEAR AGO?

Donald Trump is president elect, to be inaugurated in 3 weeks

The Cubs win the World Series (barely edging the Cleveland Indians?)

The Dow is flirting with 20,000 (In spite of a super strong dollar)

and…
Columbus Blue Jackets leading division with 24-5 record and a 13 game win streak. 
Cleveland Browns win a football game after 15 straight losses now. 
Is this some “alternate universe?

 

HERE WE ARE, ON THE THRESHOLD OF A NEW YEAR; WHAT WILL IT BRING/

Barack Obama is playing true to form (snotty and petulant to the very end), as he manipulates with his last minute moves to create problems/obstructions for Donald Trump, but most of all he is desperately trying to to attempt to salvage his legacy. It is perilously close to coming apart. Obama is fortunate that, as predicted here for years, after almost 8 years of 2% growth, the US economy is continuing to “recover”—but in spite of Obama and his policies—not because of them. The booming stock market is more a reaction to hopes that Trump will indeed bring a brighter new year and several years. Democrats are hysterical because their chosen candidate lost, their cohorts lost in House, Senate and gubernatorial races, and their ideologies are losing force as they are proved wrong over and over.

 

UNEMPLOYMENT: THE MOST DECEPTIVELY WRONG MEASURE OF OUR ERA

Lose your job and don’t find one quickly enough and you are unemployed. Quit looking for a job for a while and voila’ you are no longer unemployed—you are just unaccounted for. Work force participation is dropping like a rock—worst of all males in prime working ages 25-54 who were 2.4% of the work force in the 1960s are now 11.5% of the work force. Why? A combination of obsolete skills, a reduced work ethic and lucrative welfare/disability (flagrantly granted) that pays more than many jobs. The 10,000 Baby Boomers hitting the age 65 every day, and choosing to “retire” also accounts for about half of the drop in work force participation. The other half lost their jobs to technology (automation) or lethargy, or excessive welfare.

 

A YEAR FULL OF QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES—BUT BETTER ONES THAN THE PAST 8 YEARS

What will Donald Trump do after he is sworn in as president? He only knows broad parts of that answer…

 

He will remove most or all of Obama’s executive orders—that is pretty certain—fast! 

He will start down his list of campaign initiatives (see below) and take action where he can—on his own.

He will engage Congress to help by confirming his Cabinet appointments—that will not be so easy.

He will choose and encourage his cabinet appointees to do what they were intended to do—which is often obvious (and not always in lock-step with Trump?)

He will encourage Congress to help do the things he cannot/should not do unilaterally—with mixed success—politicians will be politicians (that’s not a compliment).

 

He needs to reverse regulations, but it will be much harder to do it than it is to say it.

He needs to act on the Pentagon’s internal report about $125B savings over 5 years.

He needs to “cool it” with Russia and China (in different directions) and follow his instincts: we can’t cause peace in the Middle East.

He needs to hammer home tax reform…in steps if necessary.

He needs to stop talking about impossible outcomes (e.g., Apple uses hundreds of thousands of workers/nearby suppliers—no way to bring that to the USA).

He needs to keep talking about possible outcomes (e.g., US Energy growth and policies, infrastructure and defense rebuilds).

 

He needs to learn fast from his Cabinet,… and from history. (Reagan made huge changes.)

He needs to reduce uncertainties on domestic matters—and tamp down fears on foreign and trade matters—until he knows what he wants to do, and can do

He needs to pop growth in the US Economy past the 3% en route to 4% (regulatory relief & tax reform, growth in energy, rebuilding infrastructure and jobs “jaw boning)

 

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THESE WERE COPIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT OF DONALD TRUMP’S ACCEPTANCE SPEECH WHEN HE WAS NOMINATED

He had been pretty consistent about pursuing them, but expect those pursuits to be modified by the people he chose for his Cabinet (assuming they are confirmed).

There is one certainty—Trump is unpredictable—so reading all of the speculative articles about what he might do and the consequences of those actions is probably a waste of time. Wait and see.

 

Points in Trump’s Acceptance Speech 

What he wants to accomplish: 

• 1.     Best intelligence gathering operation in the world
• 2.     Abandon failed policy of nation-state building/regime change
• 3.     Work with allies who share goal of destroying ISIS & stamping out Islamic terror
• 4.     Suspend immigration from any nation compromised by terrorism until proven vetting
• a.     Build a great border wall to stop illegal immigration, gangs, violence and drugs
• b.     End catch and release on the border
• c.     Enforce the rules for millions who overstay visas
• 5.     New, fair trade policy
• a.     Stand up to countries who cheat
• b.     Turn bad trade agreements into great ones
• c.     No longer enter massive [trade] deals that no one understands
• d.     Enforce trade violations
• 6.     Stop China’s…
• a.     Outrageous theft of intellectual property
• b.     Illegal dumping
• c.     Devastating currency manipulation
• 7.     Reform our tax laws, regulations and energy rules
• a.     Relief for middle-income Americans and simplified taxes
• b.     Deal with the issue of excessive regulation, to end it
• c.     Lift restrictions on production of American energy
• 8.     Use energy proceeds to build new roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, airports and railways of tomorrow
• 9.     Rescue kids from failing schools, improve school choice
• 10.  Repeal and replace Obamacare
• 11.  Fix TSA at airports
• 12.  Rebuild depleted military
• a.     Take care of veterans’ [medical care] like never before
• 13.  Ask Dept. heads to provide list of wasteful spending to eliminate in first 100 days
• 14.  Appoint Justices to SCOTUS who will uphold, laws and our Constitution
• 15.  Go to work for our country and for all of you

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QUESTIONS AND SHORT TAKES (& A FEW ANSWERS)

• Will our government (BLS) ever correct the unemployment  calculation—simply “stop making” it “seem” you’re no longer “unemployed?” (Someday?)
• How can investment markets (Wall Street) react to initial releases of economic statistics when history proves that big revisions will follow? (Dumb)
• How much of labor force participation rate drop is due to Baby Boomers retiring and how much is due to lucrative welfare—for doing nothing? (Equal parts)
• Has productivity growth slowed because Millennials are replacing Boomers in the work force? Are they less productive? (Yes, but its due to other factors)
• If student debt is “real debt” (it is) then who gets the bill if/when it is forgiven or reduced or wiped out? (American taxpayers? Creditors? Universities!)
• Can the US economy get to growth rates in the 4% range within the next year or two? (Maybe)
• The jobs that went to Asia cannot be brought back—but what new jobs will replace them—and who will fill those jobs? (Not enough Americans)
• The US population grew the least % in decades—is that good, or bad? How much of that is due to permissive policies on abortions? (Lots)
• Does it make any sense to limit the pay of the most successful people in hopes it will somehow help the least successful Americans? (No) 
• Should successful CEOs who make over $10,000,000 give back a portion of the overage (1/3-1/2) to be shared by the people who worked for them? (Maybe)
• Can the US economy afford to cut government jobs (no place for them to work) and fix its neglected military and infrastructure before growth goes up? (No)
• Were the Founding Fathers who wrote our Constitution as badly divided as our parties now? (Yes, they were bitterly divided.)
• Globalization is inevitable—you can’t “hold back the tide” but can we stop/slow the cheaters and abusers. (Yes)
• Can the stock market continue its climb? (Unlikely—most of the optimism has already been priced into the market.)

AND ON THEIR WAY OUT, THE CLINTON GANG SHOWS THEIR TRUE COLORS—“BLACK & BLUE”—AND CROOKED, ROTTEN TO THE CORE

Bill Clinton bashes Trump, blames 'angry white men' and Comey for wife's loss
Fox News: Former President Bill Clinton mocked President-elect Donald Trump’s intelligence, said “angry, white men" helped secure his victory and blamed FBI Director James Comey for Hillary Clinton's November defeat during a spontaneous Q-and-A at a New York bookstore earlier this month. Read the full story  THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA WILL CONTINUE ITS HYSTERICAL ONSLAUGHT—IGNORING THE TRUTH IN FAVOR OF SENSATIONAL LIES REPEATED ENDLESSLY.

2017 WILL BE EXCITING; 2017 WILL BE UNPREDICTABLE; (HENCE FEW REAL PREDICTIONS) AND 2017 WILL BE BETTER THAN ANY OF  “OBAMA’S REIGN!” 

ENJOY THE HOLIDAYS AND LET’S LOOK FORWARD TO 2017

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

 

Best, John

 

THE ENTERPRISE—THE START OF A NEW ERA IN AMERICA

IT’S BEEN A WHILE SINCE THE LAST EDITION—SO MUCH WAS CHANGING SO FAST—THAT I DECIDED TO WAIT

Then I hit a medical “speed bump” and needed a little surgery, which is done now and went as planned, after a little worrisome waiting.

A RECAP:

THE ELECTION DIDN’T CHANGE EVERYTHING, BUT IT WILL CHANGE A LOT
A Trump presidency will change a lot. It won’t be as easy as it seems it should, because there will still be many factions who oppose everything he wants and stands for. IF—a big IF—the GOP can pull together in the House and Senate, a lot CAN GET DONE.  High on the agenda is undoing most of Obama’s presidential orders bypassing Congress to advance his agenda.  That is one Trump can do.

NAMING A CABINET AND A SUPREME COURT JUSTICE ARE NEXT BIG STEPS—AND TRUMP IS MAKING GREAT PROGRESS
Since these need to be confirmed by Congress (the Senate) unless they fall in areas where a simple (GOP) majority in the Senate will suffice. Will the GOP pull together to move Trump’s picks forward. Politicians can sometimes act like petulant children—just because. 

We, the people, need to speak to our Congressional members, and remind them that they need to “unify” to get things done for the US and for us.

In other areas, the Dems will oppose and when they can, try to filibuster Trump’s appointments/actions.  Still, a lot of new policy will get done, including the important job of restaffing so many of the regulatory bodies that either make or break American progress: CFPB, NLRB, EPA, EEOC, and a host of others.  Those are where a new president can make a big difference.

PEGGY NOONAN IS A WISE VOICE
This is a “personal note” in her column of a few weeks ago that confirms the reports of others who have met privately with Donald Trump. Read the whole column if you wish:

Excerpt from Peggy’s column in the WSJ, Nov. 19,2016

    "I end with a related personal note. I never interviewed Donald Trump throughout this year’s campaign. From the beginning he reminded me of men I grew up with, Trumps with no money—loud, unsmooth, rough opinions. Where you came from and who you were surrounded by has a bearing on your loyalties and can bend your thinking.

I judged that I’d see Mr. Trump most clearly from a middle distance. So I didn’t go, talk, interview. Six weeks ago I called a Trump staffer I’d interviewed to check a quote. She returned my call from Trump Force One. We spoke, and then suddenly the phone seemed to drop and I heard, “Who’s that?” Then I heard, “Peggy, this is Donald.” 

I won’t quote exactly what was said. No one put it off the record, but it felt off the record, and some of the conversation was personal. But I can describe it. He was dignified, hilarious and modest. He told me that I’d sometimes been unfair to him, sometimes mean, sometimes really, really mean, but that when I was he usually deserved it, always appreciated it, and keep it up. He spoke of other things; he characterized for me my career.

    I’d heard of his charm offensive, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say how charming, funny and frank he was—and, as I say, how modest. How actually humble. 
It moved me. And it hurt to a degree a few weeks later when I wrote in this space that “Sane Donald Trump” would win in a landslide but that the one we had long seen, the crazed, shallow one, wouldn’t, and didn’t deserve to.

Is it possible there are deeper reserves of humility, modesty and good intent lurking around in there than we know? And maybe a toolbox, too, that can screw those things together and produce something good? Where there’s life, there’s hope. He’s lively. Let’s hope."

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CATCHING UP—SHORT TAKES ON MANY THINGS: 

As Donald Trump chooses his Cabinet, he is already “making things happen."

• Nice to see USITC jumping on LG & Samsung for dumping laundry equipment (made in China) into us undercutting Whirlpool, with a look-back provision.
• LIBERAL MEDIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIG PROBLEM IN AMERICA-peddling its wrong-headed Socialist  trash to millions of naive Americans (youth)
• FUNNY HOW THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE is a problem only when the Democrats lose the presidency
• Trump presidency not as good for the stock market as priced in right now. Interest rates will creep up. Don’t  overestimate it. USA 4-5% growth is hard to do fast.
• Internet attacks continue to grow and get nastier; Dyn Inc. servers hit with a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS), a simple attack growing in frequency. Hard to stop. 
• Court limited the “ungoverned” CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Agency)( for being accountable to NO ONE…and ruled that’s not right. Trump will limit it further.
• America’s nuclear arsenal is intended to be a deterrent, but it is so old (1960s vintage), out of date, in poor repair, no one knows if it really works. Fix it! Now!
• Emissions agreements don’t mean anything until or unless China and India make changes in their pollution creating countries.
• Best Buy is successfully holding off Amazon’s theft of its customers: price matching, ship from stores/to stores, training associates, and getting big vendors to help.
• Apple is wrong—pushing “dongle hell” on loyal customers. iPhone 7 w/no phone jack? MacBook Pro with 2 mini-USB ports. Being too far ahead is as bad as behind.
• Dodd-Frank will be modified, to relieve pressure on smaller banks, and reduce the massive complexity it creates.
• Tangled permits strangling American growth. New laws must stop permits to build anything taking 10+ yrs. Pentagon & Empire State built in under 18 months each.
• Pressure will be on the GOP to pull together enough to advance their agenda (Trump + Congress).
• Wind power is getting close to being cost competitive with older power sources. They just don’t look good, and have some odd side effects (on weather and wildlife).
• Trump will kill the Clean Power Act abuse by Obama & the EPA trying to legislate around Congress.
• Media, academia and liberal lunacy created monsters of Snowflake Generations, sanctuary cities, micro aggressions/triggers, and assorted other PC nonsense.
• Repeal and replace Obamacare will not be simple, fast or easy—but it needs a major remake, somehow.or
• Jobs are growing faster than the economy because the growth initiatives are all wrong. Need to rejuvenate good ($) jobs—assuming Americans are willing to work!
• Labor force participation is at a low since the 1940’s Do Americans not want to work? Part is 10K/day boomers “retiring.” Part is “Obama’s nanny state welfare”
• BIG QUESTION: DO AMERICANS HAVE THE WILL TO WORK, or did Obama destroy it with lucrative welfare systems. 7MM men age 25-54 are not working 
• BRING BACK WORKFARE: If you get a check from the government, you must do some kind of work for it. (Exception: prepaid retiree Social Security recipients)
• Infrastructure plan creates jobs, but they are one time jobs…gone when the projects are done. Need to rebuild enduring jobs in America.
• TPP is dead—look for 1:1 trade deals. 
• Tax reform will come…sooner rather than later…and bring $$Trillions back from offshore.
• Iran nuke deal will be dismantled (US part anyway).
• NAFTA will survive but be watered down to favor US vs. Mexico (that’s how they will “pay for it.”)(
• Wall, Fence or whatever, will be built—permits be damned. E-verify and much more will be beefed up.
• WEB ATTACKS WILL CONTINUE—until someone figures out a way to “attack back.”
• NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT DEFUSING THE BIG BOMB—ENTITLEMENTS—Start with Social Security age to 70, wring waste out of Medicare, et. al. 

 

A POST SCRIPT

NOTICE THE PHOTOS OF THE DISTRAUGHT CLINTON SUPPORTERS—MOSTLY YOUNG & INCREDULOUS

American parents and schools have collaborated to create an entire generation of coddled, spoiled, sensitive and incomplete  youth. They are given participation trophies and seldom or never exposed to the reality of winning vs. losing. They have over-inflated senses of self-worth, created with the intention of assuming them that they will find a way to be productive members of society—even though they are poorly prepared to do so.   They have tons of student debt, they want “someone” to forgive, like it isn’t real debt—which it is. 

They like the idea of free things (like college) since they fail to realize that few things in life are really “free.” Someone else works and pays for those “free things.”  Bernie Sanders epitomized their myths. Hillary Clinton institutionalized them—wrongly but widely. She was the strident, older “tooth fairy” who would solve all their problems at little or not cost or sacrifice to them. By campaigning this way, she did them and all Americans a grave disservice. 

Now reality has hit them. Their liberal, tenured teachers were wrong. Their parents abdicated the job of teaching them about the real world. Their leaders preached what they hoped to hear, hanging out Starbucks and impossible platitudes. Over time, the harsh, cruel world will show them how badly they were being misled. Before that, some percentage of them will make their careers into teaching or journalism careers where they can perpetuate the myths that threaten America to its very core. Hopefully, sometime between now and their next chance to choose leaders, they will learn something correct and relevant.

If you get a chance to teach any of them, remind them of these facts:

When you grow up, and hope to get a job, several things will become apparent.

1) You need to get up and show up for work, every day, on time—not just when you feel like it, and don’t feel poorly.)

2) Once there you actually must work—not text friends on your smartphone, or post Tweets, or on Instagram about the weekend.

3) You will be paid what you are worth. Not what you think you are worth. Only those dull over-achievers will be paid well.

4) If your employer cannot/does not operate at a profit, your job will be eliminated, and maybe even the entire company.

5) Once you are unemployed, finding another job will be harder. Paying for a place to live, food, etc., and other daily necessities will be hard or impossible, and that includes your cell phone bill. You’ll want to move back home, where “someone else" pays for these things.

6) IF you do show up, work hard, learn, grow into your job, do well, and manage your money well, you will soon see the wisdom of those strange people known as Republicans that you found so repulsive.

Here is one characterization of this new generation.

Generation Snowflake

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Generation Snowflake, or Snowflake Generation, is a term that refers to young people, typically university or college students, who seek to avoid emotionally charged topics or dissenting ideas and opinions. This may involve support of safe paces and trigger warnings in the university setting.  

Background

Writer Claire Fox reported that, " In November 2015, a short video went viral that showed a confrontation between a Yale faculty head and a screaming, almost hysterical mob of students. The video generated such a backlash towards the students' behavior that they were soon labelled with the disparaging moniker 'Generation Snowflake'." The situation had arisen after a request for students not to wear Halloween costumes that might offend minority groups had been responded to.

Characteristics

Generation Snowflake members "are genuinely distressed by ideas that run contrary to their worldview"; they are more likely than previous generations of students to report that they have mental health problems.  A UK Higher Education Policy Institute survey of university students in 2016 "found that 76% would ban speakers who had views that offended them, while half (48%) wanted universities to be declared safe spaces where debate can only take place within strict rules."  This is coupled with a strong sense of entitlement.

  Fox argues that Generation Snowflake was created by over-protecting people when they were children.  In the UK, Tom Bennett was recruited by the government to address behavior in schools.  He commented that Generation Snowflake children at school can be over-protected from reality, leading to problems when they progress to university and are confronted with real-world truths.  They can react with intolerance towards people and things that they believe may offend someone.

   Bennett also commented, ”It’s true that our children have never had it so good, and some have never known anything but a status quo of swimming in surplus. It’s true that, for some of these children, losing fast Wi-Fi is a crisis and being offended on the internet is a disaster.”

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FROM A CORRESPONDENT…REASONS THAT JOY, NOT GRIEF SHOULD BE THE NATIONAL EMOTION

A few post-election reasons to be grateful . . . very grateful

1. Abortion:  Clinton’s most extreme and most radical pro-abortion views will not see the light of day; countless lives will be spared.
2. Children:  The hope and promise that is America will be revitalized and preserved for America’s youth; they, too, can look forward to a brighter future.
3. Education:  Our public education system will, at last, be dramatically improved; and millions of inner city children will have a shot at a brighter future built on a quality education.
4. Energy:  America’s energy independence is now an achievable goal.
5. Growth:  This is uncomplicated: Lower taxes + the elimination of suffocating regulations = robust economic growth
6. Healthcare:  The nightmare known as Obamacare will soon be gone, critical medical research will be funded, and the patient and doctor will be in charge of health care.  (The nation will be spared “Hillarycare” which would have made Obamacare look tim good by comparison.)
7. National defense:  Our decimated military will be restored to levels capable of defending our country from a variety of global threats; “peace through strength” will once again be the backbone of our defense and foreign policy.
8. Police officers and military:  The men and women in blue and those serving in our military will once again be respected, admired and appreciated by the President of the United States; all lives will matter.
9. Supreme Court:  The constitutional grounding of our judicial system, and our critical checks and balances, will be strengthened and preserved for decades to come.
10. Terrorism:  We will finally have a strong and unambiguous anti-terrorism policy, domestically and abroad.

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A PICTURE THAT MIGHT BRING A SMILE TO YOUR FACE—(or not)

2016 was not the first time I was involved supporting Donald Trump. Go back to 1989 when I was president of Huffy Bicycles, and we were the bike sponsor of his Tour de Trump race series. I never met Donald at that time…but here is his picture holding aloft one of our Huffy competitive bikes we made to fit him.

 

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