THE ENTERPRISE—AN EXCITING AND UNPREDICTABLE NEW YEAR

 

WHERE AM I? WHO WOULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS A YEAR AGO?

Donald Trump is president elect, to be inaugurated in 3 weeks

The Cubs win the World Series (barely edging the Cleveland Indians?)

The Dow is flirting with 20,000 (In spite of a super strong dollar)

and…
Columbus Blue Jackets leading division with 24-5 record and a 13 game win streak. 
Cleveland Browns win a football game after 15 straight losses now. 
Is this some “alternate universe?

 

HERE WE ARE, ON THE THRESHOLD OF A NEW YEAR; WHAT WILL IT BRING/

Barack Obama is playing true to form (snotty and petulant to the very end), as he manipulates with his last minute moves to create problems/obstructions for Donald Trump, but most of all he is desperately trying to to attempt to salvage his legacy. It is perilously close to coming apart. Obama is fortunate that, as predicted here for years, after almost 8 years of 2% growth, the US economy is continuing to “recover”—but in spite of Obama and his policies—not because of them. The booming stock market is more a reaction to hopes that Trump will indeed bring a brighter new year and several years. Democrats are hysterical because their chosen candidate lost, their cohorts lost in House, Senate and gubernatorial races, and their ideologies are losing force as they are proved wrong over and over.

 

UNEMPLOYMENT: THE MOST DECEPTIVELY WRONG MEASURE OF OUR ERA

Lose your job and don’t find one quickly enough and you are unemployed. Quit looking for a job for a while and voila’ you are no longer unemployed—you are just unaccounted for. Work force participation is dropping like a rock—worst of all males in prime working ages 25-54 who were 2.4% of the work force in the 1960s are now 11.5% of the work force. Why? A combination of obsolete skills, a reduced work ethic and lucrative welfare/disability (flagrantly granted) that pays more than many jobs. The 10,000 Baby Boomers hitting the age 65 every day, and choosing to “retire” also accounts for about half of the drop in work force participation. The other half lost their jobs to technology (automation) or lethargy, or excessive welfare.

 

A YEAR FULL OF QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES—BUT BETTER ONES THAN THE PAST 8 YEARS

What will Donald Trump do after he is sworn in as president? He only knows broad parts of that answer…

 

He will remove most or all of Obama’s executive orders—that is pretty certain—fast! 

He will start down his list of campaign initiatives (see below) and take action where he can—on his own.

He will engage Congress to help by confirming his Cabinet appointments—that will not be so easy.

He will choose and encourage his cabinet appointees to do what they were intended to do—which is often obvious (and not always in lock-step with Trump?)

He will encourage Congress to help do the things he cannot/should not do unilaterally—with mixed success—politicians will be politicians (that’s not a compliment).

 

He needs to reverse regulations, but it will be much harder to do it than it is to say it.

He needs to act on the Pentagon’s internal report about $125B savings over 5 years.

He needs to “cool it” with Russia and China (in different directions) and follow his instincts: we can’t cause peace in the Middle East.

He needs to hammer home tax reform…in steps if necessary.

He needs to stop talking about impossible outcomes (e.g., Apple uses hundreds of thousands of workers/nearby suppliers—no way to bring that to the USA).

He needs to keep talking about possible outcomes (e.g., US Energy growth and policies, infrastructure and defense rebuilds).

 

He needs to learn fast from his Cabinet,… and from history. (Reagan made huge changes.)

He needs to reduce uncertainties on domestic matters—and tamp down fears on foreign and trade matters—until he knows what he wants to do, and can do

He needs to pop growth in the US Economy past the 3% en route to 4% (regulatory relief & tax reform, growth in energy, rebuilding infrastructure and jobs “jaw boning)

 

==================

 

THESE WERE COPIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT OF DONALD TRUMP’S ACCEPTANCE SPEECH WHEN HE WAS NOMINATED

He had been pretty consistent about pursuing them, but expect those pursuits to be modified by the people he chose for his Cabinet (assuming they are confirmed).

There is one certainty—Trump is unpredictable—so reading all of the speculative articles about what he might do and the consequences of those actions is probably a waste of time. Wait and see.

 

Points in Trump’s Acceptance Speech 

What he wants to accomplish: 

• 1.     Best intelligence gathering operation in the world
• 2.     Abandon failed policy of nation-state building/regime change
• 3.     Work with allies who share goal of destroying ISIS & stamping out Islamic terror
• 4.     Suspend immigration from any nation compromised by terrorism until proven vetting
• a.     Build a great border wall to stop illegal immigration, gangs, violence and drugs
• b.     End catch and release on the border
• c.     Enforce the rules for millions who overstay visas
• 5.     New, fair trade policy
• a.     Stand up to countries who cheat
• b.     Turn bad trade agreements into great ones
• c.     No longer enter massive [trade] deals that no one understands
• d.     Enforce trade violations
• 6.     Stop China’s…
• a.     Outrageous theft of intellectual property
• b.     Illegal dumping
• c.     Devastating currency manipulation
• 7.     Reform our tax laws, regulations and energy rules
• a.     Relief for middle-income Americans and simplified taxes
• b.     Deal with the issue of excessive regulation, to end it
• c.     Lift restrictions on production of American energy
• 8.     Use energy proceeds to build new roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, airports and railways of tomorrow
• 9.     Rescue kids from failing schools, improve school choice
• 10.  Repeal and replace Obamacare
• 11.  Fix TSA at airports
• 12.  Rebuild depleted military
• a.     Take care of veterans’ [medical care] like never before
• 13.  Ask Dept. heads to provide list of wasteful spending to eliminate in first 100 days
• 14.  Appoint Justices to SCOTUS who will uphold, laws and our Constitution
• 15.  Go to work for our country and for all of you

==================

QUESTIONS AND SHORT TAKES (& A FEW ANSWERS)

• Will our government (BLS) ever correct the unemployment  calculation—simply “stop making” it “seem” you’re no longer “unemployed?” (Someday?)
• How can investment markets (Wall Street) react to initial releases of economic statistics when history proves that big revisions will follow? (Dumb)
• How much of labor force participation rate drop is due to Baby Boomers retiring and how much is due to lucrative welfare—for doing nothing? (Equal parts)
• Has productivity growth slowed because Millennials are replacing Boomers in the work force? Are they less productive? (Yes, but its due to other factors)
• If student debt is “real debt” (it is) then who gets the bill if/when it is forgiven or reduced or wiped out? (American taxpayers? Creditors? Universities!)
• Can the US economy get to growth rates in the 4% range within the next year or two? (Maybe)
• The jobs that went to Asia cannot be brought back—but what new jobs will replace them—and who will fill those jobs? (Not enough Americans)
• The US population grew the least % in decades—is that good, or bad? How much of that is due to permissive policies on abortions? (Lots)
• Does it make any sense to limit the pay of the most successful people in hopes it will somehow help the least successful Americans? (No) 
• Should successful CEOs who make over $10,000,000 give back a portion of the overage (1/3-1/2) to be shared by the people who worked for them? (Maybe)
• Can the US economy afford to cut government jobs (no place for them to work) and fix its neglected military and infrastructure before growth goes up? (No)
• Were the Founding Fathers who wrote our Constitution as badly divided as our parties now? (Yes, they were bitterly divided.)
• Globalization is inevitable—you can’t “hold back the tide” but can we stop/slow the cheaters and abusers. (Yes)
• Can the stock market continue its climb? (Unlikely—most of the optimism has already been priced into the market.)

AND ON THEIR WAY OUT, THE CLINTON GANG SHOWS THEIR TRUE COLORS—“BLACK & BLUE”—AND CROOKED, ROTTEN TO THE CORE

Bill Clinton bashes Trump, blames 'angry white men' and Comey for wife's loss
Fox News: Former President Bill Clinton mocked President-elect Donald Trump’s intelligence, said “angry, white men" helped secure his victory and blamed FBI Director James Comey for Hillary Clinton's November defeat during a spontaneous Q-and-A at a New York bookstore earlier this month. Read the full story  THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA WILL CONTINUE ITS HYSTERICAL ONSLAUGHT—IGNORING THE TRUTH IN FAVOR OF SENSATIONAL LIES REPEATED ENDLESSLY.

2017 WILL BE EXCITING; 2017 WILL BE UNPREDICTABLE; (HENCE FEW REAL PREDICTIONS) AND 2017 WILL BE BETTER THAN ANY OF  “OBAMA’S REIGN!” 

ENJOY THE HOLIDAYS AND LET’S LOOK FORWARD TO 2017

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

 

Best, John