SUMMER VACATION HAS SLOWED THE ENTERPRISE,,,BUT THAT’S A GOOD THING
Looking at the mountains and big skies of Montana, and the glorious Canadian Rockies of Banff, Lake Louise and Jasper clears the mind and rejuvenates the soul. Seeing the wonder of God’s work in nature is impressive, awe inspiring and provides hope.
Seeing the dysfunctional governmental leaders quarreling over personal preferences and political positioning is an awful and humbling reminder that God gave mortals free will to do as they wanted to—and humans usually make a mess of things until leaders come along to help sort things out.
The complexity of global business in this 21st century creates a maelstrom of evolutionary forces, tearing apart and reassembling everything. I can’t possibly touch on all of this, but I’m going to hit a wide range of topics on this holiday weekend.
PEGGY NOONAN IS ONE OF THE WISE VOICES WE SHOULD ALL READ AND HEED
I won’t try to rewrite her most recent column, but rather post a copy here for you to read (and hopefully heed), before you reach out to your elected Representatives in US Congress. Her core premise is that the Democrats made this mess of Obamacare, but now are sitting by, sniping from the sidelines, while a fractured GOP tries to assembly a better solution. She pleads for bi-partisan involvement of the Dems. That simply will not happen on any meaningful scale. They are too angry, petulant, hypocritical and misguided to help fix their own mess. Sometimes a thing must fail entirely before the crisis is bad enough to require that it be fixed—and gain enough support (and agreement) to find a better way.
Download On Health Care a Promise Not a Threat - WSJ
The American people have been spoiled by Barack Obama, the democratic liberals and the misguided mainstream media to expect the government to take care of everything for them—and pay for it with “other people’s money!” Time and again this has been tried and failed: Socialism, Communism, the welfare state, and "big government fixes everything" are among the failed attempts. The only things “FREE” in America are speech, the right to assemble, worship, and the rights to elect leaders in “free elections” and to do stupid or bad things, too. That’s why we have so many lawyers, and need so many laws. “Somebody" will pay for every bit of Health Care a new law offers—usually those hard working people (only half of Americans) who still proudly work of a living, and pay taxes.
SOME PEOPLE TO RECOGNIZE ON THIS JULY 4, 2017 WEEKEND
Our three grown children are good, hard working Americans, (and my wife helped that by raising them to be good people.) One of them survived a messy divorce (all divorces are “messy" no matter how intended, because they fracture families) and of moving on with her life. One survived the collapse of his business with the 2007-2009 FL construction collapse, losing his life savings, and house, but not his will to survive and do better—which he is now doing—although not without several years of pain and strain. The third had every right to take disability 10 years ago and sit home, living off the government—but she refused to do that. In spite of a life-altering physical condition, she now has a good job, and is a huge contributor to the well-being of others, while earning (remember that word: EARNING) a living as an American. I am proud of them all, not only on this JULY 4, but on every day of every year.
I JUST FINISHED A YEAR SERVING ON THE "COLUMBUS DISPATCH READERS ADVISORY GROUP”—KUDOS TO ALAN MILLER, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
I learned so much about how newspapers and the news in general is managed, communicated and made more useful, accessible and entertaining. Newspapers are “old news” with all the news available on the Internet, but done right, they still fill a valuable and worthwhile spot on the news spectrum—and can continue to become more relevant. The Dispatch is a rare thing: a big city newspaper that wins awards for reporting, which is NOT wildly biased in either political direction. That is largely due to its editorial staff, led by Editor in Chief, Alan Miller, who I have now met with 11 times this past year. Alan is (in no particular order): a really good man, a very good journalist, an excellent leader and an experienced/effective purveyor of the news via the Dispatch (including newly expanded Dispatch.com—on line in three versions).
Kudos to Alan and many thanks for assembling the 30-person Advisory Group from 300 volunteers. We were the first group. The second one is coming on next month. I hope they find it as rewarding as we did. Alan says we helped him and his entire editorial staff (I hope we did), who took the time and made the effort to meet with us over the course of the year—after hours (6:30-8:30 one Thursday evening each month).
THAT IS THE SEGUE TO WHAT’S HAPPENING ON THE GLOBAL BUSINESS SCENE
Donald Trump is doing many good things that are getting lost in the mainstream media vendetta to damage him, stop him and impede any of his progress. AND, He is adding fuel to their fire by “firing back,” but that is how he grew up. When attacked, attack back, harder, was his approach. Sometimes (often) it works against his agenda for “Making American Great Again,” but it is who he is—good or bad.
The links below will let you see what President Trump has accomplished—and where the Democratic obstruction has impeded his progress. He has done many things he promised, largely via executive orders, and not without considerable opposition by the Democrats and activist judges (Many of whom will be summarily overturned by the Supreme Court.)
TRUMP WILL NOT START A TRADE WAR BUT WILL INSIST “ALLIES” PAY THEIR FAIR SHARE OF THE BILL FOR DEFENDING FREEDOM
I was delighted that Trump took the USA out of the bogus Paris Climate accords, which did nothing to fix the environment, but did move huge amounts of money from the USA to many other polluting countries.
I was delighted that Trump called out NATO members for not paying their agreed upon GDP percentages into NATO—including wealthy countries like Germany.
I am delighted that Trump put Mexico on notice about immigration and NAFTA. Both are big problems which Mexico dumps into the USA’s lap.
I was delighted that Trump abandoned the TPA (Trade Partnership deal), because while it had good points, most bundled trade deals contain bad things for the USA.
I was delighted that Trump took an aggressive stand against Syria’s use of chemical weapons.
I was mostly delighted with the outcome of Trump’s trip through the Middle East and Europe. He stayed on script, mostly, something he needs to do more.
THINGS THAT DISAPPOINT ME—the CBO, MYTHS ABOUT JOBS, HEALTH CARE OUTCOMES AND MORE...
Congress is the boss of the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) whose forecasts are used to measure the outcome of new laws. The problem is the CBO is consistently wrong, and has been for the past decade. It uses assumptions that minimize the positive effects (growth in markets) and maximize the negative impact (freebies given away). Obama’s entire 8 year term was marked by these huge errors. There was a chart in a prior edition of THE ENTERPRISE showing how far the CBO projections missed what actually happened over 7 years of Obamacare.
Congress needs to investigate and then take the CBO to task for continued proven errors. CBO makes assumptions that are indefensible and buries them in the complexity of its calculations. Tell your Congressional Representative!
ON JOBS: Trump and his policies alone (even without the Dems obstructionism) cannot “bring jobs back to the USA.” Those old jobs are gone. Trump's policies can create economic growth. BUT, face it—technology is replacing people faster and faster—just like it did on farms decades ago. To “bring jobs back” to the USA means three things have to happen to create and fill new jobs:
1) Find enough Americans who would rather work than be on welfare — to fill the already available jobs (500,000 plus).
2) Train people (including a revival in using apprenticeships) to fill specific kinds of jobs, at specific areas and companies.
3) Take massive action to reduce illicit drug use, so companies can hire enough people (who can pass continued drug testing) to fill jobs once created.
On 1) To do the first one may mean providing relocation assistance tied to jobs—to help get the people where the jobs are—and quit providing ever increasing welfare (including escalating minimum wage rates) that make staying home more lucrative than working for a living (as it is in 38 states). Reinstate WORKFARE, requiring that everyone receiving a payment for anything from the government, must do some kind of “work” for it—child care centers, janitorial or outdoor grounds work, painting and/or clean up of public facilities in place of paid contractors, etc.
On 2) Companies and the government (including the VA) must work together to match-up jobs, training and people. I don’t buy that the older generation can’t learn the technology to operate sophisticated electronic equipment. They all have either smart phones, tablets, cable/satellite/streaming TVs in their homes, and ATMs, self-checkout-retail appliances, cars, etc. use the same kind of tech as machine tools. Robots and automation are competitive necessities. We need to teach/train American youth to work in those kinds of jobs. Ditto, older workers who want to work to supplement inadequate retirement income.
On 3) The Opioid epidemic requires Draconian/extreme action. Sellers must fear being arrested; get immediate and long prison terms, but in special prisons not like "country clubs"—repurpose old-school prisons like Alcatraz. Restrict the production and sale of Opioids more severely than ever—at the sources. Penalize Doctors who mis-prescribe them and pharmacies who mis-dispense them with jail time. Lacking Draconian actions, Opioid abusers will continue to die until they realize that brief high can cost them their lives. It is the curse of free will, human nature and addictive, fatal drugs. Until enough people die, no extreme enough solution will be adopted.
WE ARE A NATION WHERE HALF THE PEOPLE WANT “RIGHTS," BUT NOT “RESPONSIBILITIES"
Or alternatively, where they simply don’t have "a chance to take responsibilities.” Over Thirty Million American children are served their meals at School under one CEB program! Many more kids are fed under other programs. That is not what School was intended to do. What of the parents? They abdicate the responsibility—or simply cannot/will not live up to it. No one is treating this problem—irresponsibly poor parenting—rather they are just making it someone else's problem. We need stronger leaders in our poor, heavily minority (or immigrant) communities, but those leaders are a scarce few. We need more of them. Law makers fail to understand the problem and thus are unable to devise workable solutions—so they throw money at the problem. When crime pays more than jobs, the choice for youth is simple. (That’s just bad.)
NATIONAL ID CARDS—A SOLUTION FOR THE FUTURE
There is a bogus argument that having a voting/driving/universal ID card inhibits minorities from voting. Poor, minorities et. al. figure out how to use their Food Stamp card, free cell phones and welfare-debit cards just fine, and they learn how to game the system on un-wed multiple births. A national ID card for citizens and immigrants alike is a must. It needs to expire..at longer intervals for citizens (3 years) and shorter ones for immigrants (6 mo.-1 year). States already have Driver’s License agencies who could easily provide this ID service too, on a per-occurrence payment from the Federal government.
EVEN FAKE NEWS OUTLETS DON’T MENTION THE PROGRESS BEING MADE—BUT OUTRIGHT FABRICATIONS ARE NUMEROUS
Nobody is reporting the progress being made by the Trump administration, (see links above), but the news is full of critical and often false stories. There needs to be a remedy that is a more serious penalty than “OOPs and a buried retraction" for major media like the NYTimes, Washington Post, CNN, etc., which circulates major news stories that are fabrications, lies and innuendo.
The only solution is to make Editors the "police force" for such articles, and for both editors and writers to pay for misbehaving either with the jobs—or their freedom (jail time). That’s what libel and defamation laws were created to do. Now those laws must be extended to abuse of the Freedom of the Press. If they abuse it, they lose it…in one way or another. Example: The NYTimes, Wash Post should be required to run large front page headlines citing its wrong, and untruthful articles—for each instance—or lose it’s license. You can bet the fact checkers will work overtime if that was made into law (or executive order?).
ARE MALLS DESTINED TO DISAPPEAR? NO—BUT THEY WILL CHANGE AND EVOLVE/ADAPT
America is over-retailed and has been for decades. Malls are just another stage in the constant evolution of retailing. Too many big box stores led to consolidation. Most types of chains evolved to 2-3 survivors who either bought or crushed competition. Mail order gave way to retail stores, who gave way to specialty stores, catalog showrooms and superstores (grocery plus general merchandise). Warehouse clubs sprouted and then consolidated to just a few survivors. Nature has taught us that Darwin was right. Only the strongest survive. Evolution continues. Amazon is the new version of the old Sears and Wards catalog. The Internet is the new Mall. Stores will morph into pickup sites, that not only sell goods, but also service customers. The Malls must be repurposed if they can’t survive as a Shopping Center.
FINALLY…A REPURPOSED ARTICLE FROM 13 YEARS AGO…ABOUT CHANGE, AND A LESSON FROM NATURE
I have been writing this edition while sitting looking at the trees behind my home, amazed at how they grow, evolve, and change. It reminded me of a similar time twenty years ago. I dug out this article I wrote then and later revised.
It could be applied to companies, or to industries, or to countries and their governments.
Change happens; people change; times change; technology changes. Humans, as with all species, must learn, adapt and evolve to an ever-changing environment.
Finally, best wishes for the July 4 Holiday and the summer that follows. Enjoy the freedoms of life in the USA.
JOHN
The Parable of the Forest and The Trees ©John L. Mariotti, 1997 & 2004
There are many lessons to be learned from nature that apply in the world of business. This is only one of them. Pay close attention to the lessons in this parable and find others of your own.
The Forest and the Large Tree
I live on a hill that overlooks a vast expanse of forest. In this forest there are trees of all different species, sizes and ages. While I looked at this work of nature one day, it struck me that a message was being delivered by nature that applied to organizations, especially business organizations in this world of ours. I began to focus on one great tree. It was great in both height and girth. It was, I assumed, very old. In fact, there were no small trees under the shadow of its huge branches. The large tree dominated its part of the forest. It’s size and spread was so impressive that it completely excluded new growth (even its own seeds, grasses and other plants) from growing in its shadow. All around it, the trees were mostly of a similar species and of varying ages and sizes.
The immediate area around the great tree had obviously been “seeded” by the tree's own seeds. Some of which had grown and flourished outside its shadow. Other plant life flourished outside the tree's shadow, and the diversity of it was beautiful to behold (no doubt seeds carried into the area by the birds or the wind). As majestic as the large tree was, its setting in the forest was only enhanced by the surrounding diversity. Alone, it simply wouldn’t have been as impressive, because there would have been nothing for comparison!
In other areas of the forest, similar places existed. I would like to focus on just this one, while remembering that the nature of the forest is that this place is repeated many times over.
The Great Storm
After many years, one day in the very early spring, a great windstorm swept through the forest. This was a new stronger and different kind of windstorm. Never before had such winds been felt in this forest. Other times there had been strong winds, but these just blew down the smaller, dead or dying branches of the large tree. This natural pruning was healthy for the large tree, keeping it clear of growth that was no longer alive and thriving. This new, stronger wind pushed and pulled at the limbs and branches of the tree. As nature would have it, the sap traveled slowly up to the treetop because the tree was very large.
By virtue of its size and age, the tree was rigid and strong. Its limbs were very large and stiff too. The smaller trees flexed in the wind. Their branches whipped in different directions as the wind swirled and changed its direction. The branches that had grown into large limbs of the large tree had lost their flexibility because of their size. Their very survival depended on their size and strength. As the wind whipped around the mighty tree, one of the larger limbs broke, with a resounding crack. Once a strength, now its huge size and weight worked to its disadvantage after the new winds had broken it. The large limb crashed to the ground. If trees could scream, this titan would have screamed a cry of pain and anguish louder than ever heard throughout the forest.
The New Growth of Competition
Even so, hardly diminished by the loss of this one large limb, the large tree had many large branches. But something different and new happened in the space on the ground beneath where the large limb had been. The absence of its shade let the sunlight and rain through and new growth began. Some of the seeds from the large tree that had fallen there also began to grow as many other plant seeds also sprang to life. This new growth sprouted quickly and grew rapidly. Different species began to grow and the competition for sunlight and nutrients was on. This was especially true because while the roots of the large tree were also large and deep, and the new growth could find plenty of niches in the topsoil in which to anchor themselves.
The new growth was much different from the rest of the area around the big tree. It was very diverse and flexible. It was aggressive, growing very fast, often doubling its height in a single year. The large tree continued to dominate its part of the forest until yet another strong storm came. It seemed the storms with different, stronger winds were coming more often. Not far from the wound of the previous broken limb, there was an area no longer protected from the wind, where the first large limb had broken.
Never before had the tree felt the pressures of the wind so deeply into its core. Another limb broke this time. It was not so large as the first, but it was in a part of the tree near the first break. The first branch had lain on the ground for some time, and the burrowing, sucking and chewing insects had found it. After they infested it, they moved to the large trunk of the tree nearby. A few of them found their way to it, and in a dead area from an old wound, they began their work on the live tree.
Decay, Vermin and the Rotten Interior
Since this dead area went all the way to the center of the tree, the parasites gained access to other old wounds. When the large tree was younger and healthier, its center was also healthy and solid. As seasons went by some of these dying central areas began to rot, because the sap (of life) was mostly required out at the bark, on the outside of the tree to support its own new growth. The inside continued to decay and the parasites continued their slow, steady march into weakened areas.
The new growth around the great tree continued to flourish, continuing to gather greater amounts of sunlight, and life giving moisture. As time went by, the old tree slowly gave way to the ravages of the storms and wind by losing first one limb, then another. Rotting and attack by parasites further weakened it core. With each broken limb and fallen branch, more new aggressive growth sprouted around it. The trees that grew in the area exposed by the original broken limb were now quite large and still growing rapidly. They were now competing for the light and moisture with each other and the great tree.
The Great Tree Falls
Finally, one day after much of the great tree’s strength had been destroyed by winds and storms, it roots and core damaged by rot and parasites, the old tree toppled over. Its once proud bulk lay on the ground, in somber, sad repose. A few of its roots remained in the soil, and some growth appeared on its limbs each spring, but most of it was a broken and decaying hulk. The new trees that had sprouted in its space now shaded its meager growth from the sunlight and took the nourishment from the soil so it could get none. They were now reaching skyward.
As they grew taller and larger, it became apparent there was no longer room for all of them to become as dominant as the great tree had. Just as their predecessor large tree had grown strong and rigid, some of them did too. They could no longer flex with the swirling stormy winds. Their growth upward had slowed too. The sap simply took too long to get to the top for them to grow much taller. They spread their limbs outward in an attempt to take a larger area of sunlight. Their deep roots reached outward to nourish the large frame they had grown and cling to the territory they now claimed.
History Will Repeat
The one thing they couldn’t know, (or did they?), was that they too would fall to the ravages of time, the strong winds of change, and the growth of the young and flexible. Some of them were fortunate in that a forester found them. He thinned out the forest around them and pruned away their dead growth. He treated their wounds to keep out the insects, and prevent or cut out the rotting inside. Despite his finest efforts, their size and height was limited. No matter how hard they reached for the sky, the sheer structure they needed to add the height worked against them when the stronger, stormy winds blew.
The "Shape" of the forest is constantly "shifting." Old growth matures and dies off, and new growth takes its place. Nature has a way of telling us things. The messages are subtle but powerful. Often we ignore them. More often we are simply unaware of the messages because we do not think to look for them. The forest is so large, that we only see the small part of it where we are. How can we realize the message that we are only living in a small piece of time and space, and see the larger forest around us? How can we also see the richness of life that is within the forest, and in every tree? Perhaps we cannot or perhaps we need a wise forester, who knows of the story of the large tree and has been both inside and outside the forest to realize its size and majesty.
Learn from Nature—The Lessons are All There
One thing is certain. We can learn from the laws of nature and the story of the forest. There are many morals to be derived from this simple story. The skillful forester is the one who knows when the humane thing to do is to prune or even fell the large tree, and relieve its misery. The fact that trees cannot grow to the sky is no longer a mystery. Companies, like the trees also cannot "grow to the sky." Their own size, rigidity, and bulk ultimately become the disadvantage that allows the smaller, faster and more flexible new competitors to prevail.
Markets have limits just as the forest does. The wise forester picks only a limited area of the forest to "shape" and prune lest he spread himself too thin and does a poor job for all. Line extensions and overly ambitious expansion into unfamiliar areas can damage or destroy companies too. Understanding these principles, as intelligent human inhabitants of the forest, perhaps we can adapt.
Better yet, perhaps we can help nature create a healthier forest, by pruning the trees, and clearing the dead wood, but most of all by understanding that the time it takes the sap to reach the top, and the rigidity of great size can cause the tree’s downfall. One thing is certain, unless we learn about the care, flexibility, and pruning needed to deal with the winds of change and the storms of time as the tree (company) grows larger, history will repeat itself throughout the forest again and again!
Markets, like forests are constantly evolving. Like trees, the competitors who can flexibly adjust will survive and prosper the longest. The wise forester, like modern day executives "Shapes" the trees and the forest to lengthen the lives of the large trees. And then he knows that they must be felled to be replaced with new growth when their size and rigidity has limited their growth, lest nature knock them down due to the forces of competition.
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