STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY AND DEMOCRATS TAKING OVER THE HOUSE (PELOSI IS BACK)
2019 started out not with a bang, but with a whimper. If you are invested in the stock market, you have at least 10% less wealth than you did just a month ago. Depending on which stocks you held, it might be 20% less wealth. If you are on fixed income from investments, or no longer are earning much money, this is big hit. The natural reaction is SELL…which is exactly the wrong reaction.
THE STOCK MARKET CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE WILDLY, DRIVEN BY ECONOMIC NEWS AND ELECTRONIC PROGRAM TRADING
The US economy is still doing OK. Christmas was a good one. Consumers were confident and spending—wisely, but aggressively. However, the huge decline in the stock market, driven by myopic Fed policy, and computer driven program trading, has and will further dampen optimism. When will it bottom? Will it rebound, or will it trigger and consumer pullback and threaten the long postponed recession. The next few months will tell that story. The recession alarms are wailing, but business conditions are too good for them to overcome—for now!
FOLLOW THE BUFFETT RULE:
Warren Buffett had it right:buy low and sell high(in stocks and investments that is). Selling after the market plummets is doing just the opposite. Selling low locks in your decline in value and gives you less money to buy back when you think the market is beginning to rise again. When will it begin to rise? Nobody knows. Sooner or later it will, because the value underpinning these stocks didn’t evaporate. It was just believed to be overstated. Maybe it was; maybe it wasn’t. Like driving through bad weather, rain or snow, a steady hand on the wheel will more likely get you through safely—but it’s very hard to sit there and do nothing.
ONE INVESTMENT IS A SURE THING: BOOKS, FOR YOURSELF AND ESPECIALLY AS GIFTS—THEY JUST KEEP ON GIVING!
ROCKETSHIPS & PARACHUTESCAN CHANGE THE LIVES AND CAREERS OF EVERYONE YOU GIVE A COPY.
Order multiple copies now: https://tinyurl.com/mariottiR-PA gift for that hard to buy for person—or for all those you care about. When the Christmas cookies or wine or fruit baskets are all gone, a good book will remain, and be even more valuable as time goes on. Spend 30 minutes with a cup of coffee or tea and read pieces of ROCKETSHIPS & PARACHUTES—You will find idea after idea to help you in your career, business and life.
NOTE: IF YOU HAVE ALREADY READ ROCKETSHIPS & PARACHUTES,PLEASE POST A BRIEF REVIEW ONAMAZON.COM
Reviews matter, and the more good ones (5-star), the more likely the book will move up the popularity charts.
THIS YEAR SIGNALED THE DEPARTURE OF TWO LEGENDARY AMERICAN RETAILERS: TOYS R US & SEARS.
Sears has been declining for years. When the stores are all be gone Sears will join other legendary retailers as a chapter in America’s development as a consumer society. A trip to the now deserted stores will tell you all you need to know. It is the classic story of “creative destruction” written large, and strung out for a decade while Eddie Lampert’s ESL “picks the bones clean.” Everyone in retail is scrambling for pieces of the toy business. Walmart and amazon.com are likely winning that one based on their sheer size and scope.
WALMART AND AMAZON ARE BATTLING IT OUT EVERYWHERE
In case you haven’t noticed, Walmart is acquiring boutique store chains (Bonobos, Eliquis, ModCloth, et. al. and some larger product lines (most recentlyArt.com, the largest seller of framed art in America). While Walmart's iconic stores remain much the same, an upgrading is occurring—and faster than would be expected. In e-commerce, Walmart.comis still far behindamazon.comas thefirst choicefor on-line shoppers, butWalmart is now the dominant second choice and growingeveryday. While concentrating on keeping its stores and merchandise appealing to customers, Walmart is barreling into e-commerce going after the digital realm, and growing fast—maybe faster than amazon.com would like.
BIG BOX STORES ARE GETTING SMALLER—AND SO ARE MANY OTHERS.
Macy’s is rolling out smaller stores within stores. The amount of space needed to display goods is shrinking, because the other display—on the Internet—takes no real estate and offers a nearly infinite assortment, with competitive prices. One of these days, retailers will reinvent retail again, so the stores don’t need to be so large and full of merchandise that may or may not sell.
WORKERS CONTINUE TO BE IN SHORT SUPPLY (Especially truck drivers)
It seems that many recent graduates are still “underemployed,” but given their choices of what to study in college and their helicopter-parent coddled upbringing, they are learning that they are not “owed an opulent lifestyle.” Gen Z workers will have a disruptive effect on employers too. To save space I have included only the link to this article.It is a must read for anyone concerned about how this new generation will change so much in the American landscape. READ IT NOW! https://www.wsj.com/graphics/genz-is-coming-to-your-office/
DO YOU KNOW WHAT “GHOSTING” MEANS—IT WILL SOON BE MORE WIDELY DEFINED
Ghosting was a term invented to describe “no shows” on the dating scene. Now it is also becoming the term to describe missed interviews, or unannounced disappearing from jobs, work and even careers. People just don’t show up for their job. (or interviews), no contact, no warning, no notice—poof! They are just gone. Frustration is one cause. Failure to live up to (inflated) expectations is another. Restlessness due to any number of other causes (roommate “ghosted" on them and they can’t afford the rent alone) including thereal world expectation that workers must show up, on time for work, all the time, and actually work once they get there. Shocker!
WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF AN ERA WHEN RADICAL, DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS ARE EMERGING FASTER AND FASTER
Companies how fail to keep up or lead in the use of Artificial Intelligence, predictive analytics forecasting, and a endless variety of on-line, mobile devices to access, shop, and order and track goods. Soon a visit to the Dr. will be replaced by a virtual visit, on line, enhanced video visit with diagnostics done on smart phones and medications ordered electronically and delivered the next day. Full service Doctors will be in short supply, but Physician’s Assistants and Nurse Practitioners will be more numerous, and work under the direction (perhaps on-line, not in person) of a Doctor to consult on more complex cases and patients.
REMEMBER ROADMAPS? AND CARDBOARD BOARDING PASSES FOR AIRPLANES, AND MOVIE TICKETS, AND A HOST OF OTHER OLDER WAYS
Count how many people show their cell phone screen to the scanner to get into movies or board planes. Card swipes have morphed into insert or bump or scan.
LET’S GO GLOBAL TO DISCOVER STILL MORE 2019 ISSUES:
1) The US National Debt is headed for $20+ Trillionandand nobody in any position of importance is doing anything about it. Entitlements are eating the US budget alive. Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid (fastest growing one, full of waste and fraud), Pension promised that cannot be funded or fulfills, and someday soon, Interest on the debt which will double from $500 billion to $1 trillion/year if interest rates jump to historic levels like 5%!Nobody in elected office dares suggest that there are only two solutions: 1) lower the costs by tightening and reducing benefits and changing the qualifying age and income levels and 2) raise taxes to pay for it all, which will have a dampening effect on the economy overall.WHILE TRUMP AND CONGRESS ARGUE OVER A FEW BILLION FOR “THE WALL,” THE ECONOMY IS “BURNING.”
2) CHINA WILL MISS IT’S ECONOMIC TARGET (+6.5% GROWTH) AGAIN. It is becoming serious about continuing to raise levels of debt to prop up economy that simply is running out of room to grow. Twenty percent (20%) of those big apartment buildings you see in pictures of Chinese cities are VACANT!The threat OF US-CHINA trade conflicts will further worsen China’s challenges. As it spends to clean up its air, water and land pollution that is killing its people, it struggles with more and more problems of developing countries. China’s is also continuing to be found culpable in hacking cyber-crimes, the latest involving chips & circuits hidden in products it makes to sell around the world. This is the latest insult piled on China’s theft of Intellectual Property for the US and other trading partners.
Yet China continues to spend on military and expansionist efforts to become the dominant country in the world—claiming vast swaths of the South China sea, dredging up and building islands fo military bases, building the “Great New Silk Road” (see map), and vying for routes across the Arctic, clears of ice by global warming (caused by China & India’s continued pollution).
3) A 2000 year old religious institution is rocked to its foundation: The Catholic Church.The granddaddy of religions (which spawned most of the Protestant religions) has a moral problem of epic proportions—clergy, priests and even higher ranks, in huge numbers who are being found guilty of sex abuse of young males going back decades. Church hierarchy buried this problem by moving priests around, concealing their transgressions. Even Cardinals and Bishops, the church’s upper levels were guilty themselves of hiding or committing these heinous acts. This is especially troubling to the millions of Catholics around the world who were subject to some of the harshest rules and restrictions about their religious and personal lives. They now are leaning that the forced celibacy on members—priests and higher—and terrible unintended consequences. No simply solution is in sight and even the Pope and Cardinals, the Church top leaders, cannot agree on what to do next. Meanwhile Catholics leave the church in disgust. Sad.
ON A POSITIVE NOTE: TRUMP IS REVILED AND HATED BY MEDIA AND OPPONENTS, HIS ACTIONS HAVE HELPED AMERICA COMPETE AGAIN.
OK, THAT’S PLENTY FOR NOW.
I WANT TO WISH EVERYONE A HAPPY NEW YEAR.
NO MATTER HOW MANY OUR ISSUES AND PROBLEMS,THE USA IS WHERE EVERYONE WANTS TO COME,TO ENJOY THE FRUITS OF THEIR LABOR AND HAVE A GOOD LIFE.APPRECIATE WHAT WE HAVE. GOD BLESS AMERICA!
JOHN
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