WHERE HAS THE ENTERPRISE BEEN?
To Florida for 7 weeks until mid-April and back to Ohio for 7 weeks since, of course coming back to a calendar full of postponed Doctor’s appointments, tests, graduations, spring time chores, tax stuff, client meetings and Zoom teleconferences and the busiest part of the Rotary volunteerism year—(and possibly a one-time rejuvenation of the Reunion Conference—for those who have no idea what that is, ignore it—or those who do, stay tuned.) Whew.
I’VE BEEN COLLECTING THINGS TO INCLUDE, SO HERE WE GO.
FIRST—HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY—REMEMBER WHAT IT IS ALL ABOUT, AND BE THANKFUL FOR THOSE WHO SERVED.
AFTER ALL THE PUBLICITY ABOUT WHERE AMAZON’S SECOND HQ WAS GOING, ONE OF THE TWO WASN’T SO WELCOME AFTER ALL (NY CITY/LONG ISLAND AREA)
A huge influx like amazon promised, of people, jobs, offices, and benefits didn’t strike the Long Island natives are being worth the massive tax abatements being given. You can read more about it in the link to a WSJ story. My observation is that many of the financial incentives offered to attract companies and jobs, DO NOT PAY OFF for the localities granting them. WHY? Because they are based on inflated projections of what MIGHT happen in the future. (Racine, WI is dealing with one right now, for a plant to make cell phone components that has stalled under the harsh light of investment by the Asian company.)
NFL—A LITTLE GOOD NEWS THANKS TO AARON RODGERS OF THE PACKERS
The past few years have been filled with controversy and bad or at least questionable behavior of NFL players—and for that matter by the too highly paid “King Roger Goodell @$31.7 million, head of the NFL. Well, Aaron Rodgers is not only a terrific quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. He’s also the actually highest paid player in a list of highly paid players at a total package of $76 million.
BUT—Maybe Rodgers has more to him than just the ability to lead the Packers and win. He has his patriotic priorities in order too… Read this letter from him about Wounded Warriors, etc.
THE BRILLIANT (LATE) PETER F. DRUCKER ONCE SAID “DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY”
What he was referring to is that the makeup of the population of a country, an area or the entire earth, has a profound and largely predictable, mostly unchangeable outcome (barring war, pestilence, or other apocalyptic events). People, once born live, age and then die in “waves" which we can measure with census tracking information. The US Baby Boomers, previously the largest wave, are still retiring (or at least turn 65) at the rate of 10,000/day. This has created all kinds of economic upsets, mostly because these were the primary and most productive age groups.
THE MOST INFLUENTIAL AGE GROUPS
Why? Typically the 35-54 age group is the primary working age for people who have progressed to higher earnings and more influential jobs. Now there are new waves coming, notably the “Millennials,” which is larger than the Boomers, but not nearly as successful or productive. Why is subject to many arguments. If you read a bit of the attached article, you’ll find most of them. Agree or not…they are valid points.
THE NEWEST AGE GROUP AND RELATED CHALLENGES
Now comes Gen Z, the younger, and very large group. Perhaps this will turn out to be the best and brightest, or maybe not. This is a generation that was coddled and taught to think they are better than they are and thus are entitled to more, albeit contributing less. No doubt there are brilliant, entrepreneurial people in the Gen Z population. If we can get more of them off their mobile devices, and (off their) streaming everything, we might find that to be true. So far, the outlook is not so great. Thanks to the idiocy of government backed, unlimited student loans, part of the Millennials and the first part of Gen z will arrive in the world of work with massive debt loads—many of which they can never imagine how to repay.
THE BABY BUST—THE NEXT PREDICTABLE CRISIS
For years China had a one-child national policy, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/one-child-policy.asp and it was strictly enforced to encourage the procreation of male (primary workers) children to be favored, and to hold down explosive population growth. After 36 years, it was believed to have prevented about 400 million births. It also resulted in a preponderance of males, with far too few females for mates. In 2015 the policy was ended. What happened then was typical of government planned matters. Too few babies, which meant that in the future, too few workers. (NOTE: This kind of perverse incentive was well known in many areas of Ag/animal husbandry, leading to cycles of boom and bust for meat from animals, and other crop related produce with the associated price fluctuations.)
THE LOW BIRTH RATE PROBLEM IS NOW BECOMING GLOBAL, HITTING THE US HARD
When birth rates drop far below 2.1 (the nominal replacement rate to sustain a stable population), several things happen. There are fewer workers (Unless immigrants are introduced). With fewer workers a country's economic growth slows dramatically, as does its consumption. The population ages, and over time, fewer workers are asked to support (via social programs) a growing number of older people. The USA is heading rapidly toward the point where 2 workers will be working to “support" each aged (assumed retired) person. This is clearly a big problem.
SHRINKING POPULATION IN MANY MATURE COUNTRIES
The US birth rate is now well below the 2.1 replacement level, but immigration has helped prop it up. Nearly all of the mature economies globally have this problem. All the major European countries are down in the 1.5+/- range as is Japan. Nobody has a good solution for this. However, the places where birth rates are highest are the areas where most immigrants are trying to come from—the Middle East, Latin America, etc.
THUS DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY AND IMMIGRATION IS BOTH A PROBLEM AND A SOLUTION
The only question is how smart are we, if we manage immigration as only a humanitarian problem. it’s far more than that. It's economic problem too.
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LET’S SHIFT TOPICS WITH A SERIES OF QUESTION:
—What if Green Energy falls far short of meeting global needs, and what if its cost doesn’t come down as advocated have predicted?
Back to choosing the best fossil fuels, and continue to pollute? or Better yet, go after the enormous potential of Nuclear Energy—and address its concerns.
—What if (as happened in the Mueller (2 year, $35 million) investigation, all of the succeeding investigations are inconclusive? Are we better off as a country: to continue endless investigations (fueling still more polarization) or to stop fighting over political differences and collaborate, cooperate, and compromise—work together to solve problems we know exist? Infrastructure? Immigration? Deaths due to Opioid?
—What if instead of spending millions advertising a plethora of very expensive drugs (with litanies of adverse side effects), the pharmaceutical industry was forced to redirect that spending: half to new research for cures and remedies and half for price reduction of these very expensive drugs?
—Why can’t the government stop issuing reports each month and quarter, which generate reactions on Wall Street and Main Street, only to be revised (by a lot) just a month later, often triggering the opposite reaction. Talk about FAKE NEW? How about FAKE STATISTICS?
—How on earth will the Democratic primary elections sort out the 20+ Presidential candidates? Will they default to old reliables: Biden, Sanders, etc.) Or to the “newbies"—too numerous to list. And will it be “hard left," liberal or Socialist, or moderated? And is Trump an easily defeated target, or a difficult to beat incumbent?
—Can the trend to require Food Stamp recipients do work or training for 20 hrs. /wk. spread? Or not. Is it better to require able-bodied people to “earn” welfare (funded by those who do work), or to just “give it to them free,” because of humane concerns.
—Why can’t the government figure out that Wage Stagnation is a MYTH. There is negligible recognition in its calculations that over the past decades, the “poor” now have many hugely better amenities: air conditioning, smart cell phones & tablets, more durable & better clothing, improved food & medicines, microwave ovens, dramatically better TV sets, free WiFi, better & cheaper eyeglasses, and a host of other things…that somehow, never get calculated into the government statistics than show “wages” (alone) have not improved.
—Can the student debt bubble ($1.5 trillion) every be resolved “fairly.” The students actually signed up to repay the loans, and creditors put up the money (only the schools who kept increasing the costs made out, by charging/receiving/using the borrowed money). Look at the explosion of spending on facilities, non-teaching staff, athletics and amenities at US universities. Much of that is funded by student loan money
—Can the country (and the liberal Democrats) ever understand that “taxing the rich” will not fund impossibly expensive “free everything” programs. Take the national deficit, which was at over $1 Trillion when Obama was President and is now “down” to only $500-750 Billion. If ALL THE INCOME OF THE TOP 1% were collected, it wouldn’t begin to retire even one year’s deficit!
WATCH THIS VIDEO—PLEASE?
AND FINALLY….
—WHY CAN’T SOMEONE COME UP WITH A BIODEGRADABLE SHOPPING BAG THAT SLOWLY DISSOLVES IN SEAWATER? Instead of encouraging a switch to paper bags which cost three times as much, and deplete forestry resources, and still create waste. Or pushing a switch to reusable bags made of a different plastic (cost more, and that also last forever too) or bio degradable cloth (cotton bags) that must be used over 100 times to accomplish a carbon footprint less than a plastic bag?
OK—THAT’S TOO MUCH —BUT IT HAS BEEN ALMOST 3 MONTHS PILING UP.
THANKS TO THOSE WHO READ AND RESPOND. SUMMER IS ALMOST HERE. THE ECONOMY IS GOING WELL. AND HOPEFULLY, THE RHETORIC AND THREATS THAT INCLUDE THE WORD “WAR” ARE JUST THAT—RHETORIC.
GOD BLESS AMERICA AND THOSE WHO SERVED TO KEEP US FREE.
JOHN
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