LET’S TAKE THE FIRST TWO THAT ARE ON EVERYONE’S HEADLINE LISE: BERNIE SANDERS EMERGENCE AS THE DEMOCRAT'S FRONT RUNNER AND CORONAVIRUS…BOTH WILL MAKE YOU SICK—JUST IN DIFFERENT WAYS
CORONA VIRUS: from https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
So far, the new coronavirus, COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses & 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Jan. 31. "I can tell you all, guaranteed, that as we get into March and April, the flu cases are going to go down. You could predict pretty accurately what the range of the mortality is and the hospitalizations [will be]," Fauci said. "The issue now with [COVID-19] is that there's a lot of unknowns.”
MY Conclusion: the unknown is scarier than the familiar even if the familiar is worse.
FOR NOW: DON’T PANIC BUT BE CAREFUL
Unlike seasonal flu, for which there is a vaccine to protect against infection, there is no vaccine for COVID-19. But researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health are in the early stages of developing one. Officials plan to launch a phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine for COVID-19 within the next three months. In general, the CDC recommends the following to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, (both coronaviruses and flu viruses): Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands; avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick; and clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
Unlike seasonal flu, for which there is a vaccine to protect against infection, there is no vaccine for COVID-19. But researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health are in the early stages of developing one. Officials plan to launch a phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine for COVID-19 within the next three months. In general, the CDC recommends the following to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, (both coronaviruses and flu viruses): Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands; avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick; and clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
THE BIG $64 QUESTION: HOW MUCH WILL THE CORONAVIRUS FEAR THAT DROPPED WALL STREET VALUES, UNDERMINE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND DAMAGE US & GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH? I DON’T KNOW. DOES ANYONE?
iT’S HARD TO WRITE ABOUT POLITICS RIGHT NOW—THE STORY CHANGES ALMOST DAILY:
IF YOU WATCHED THE SC DEMOCRAT DEBATE YOU SAW REAL CHAOS—
The “circular firing squad” was at work for all to see. Do you think the presidential primaries are broken—going back to 2016’s GOP primaries, and now the 2020 Democrat primaries. Are the primaries, candidates, their campaigns and even their motivations—broken? Maybe so!
THE FRONT RUNNER—BERNIE SANDERS : “AKA “CRAZY BERNIE” IS A REAL CONCERN & A DANGER….
Just as few Dems thought Trump had any chance of being nominated or elected, few GOP-ers have ben worried about Bernie as a serious threat. THAT’S A BIG MISTAKE. Emotion almost always wins over logic and while facts may be proven, there is not rule that says voters are swayed by them. Bernie is famous for saying that Climate Change is the greatest existential threat to the US/earth, my opinion is the potential of a President Bernie Sanders is in fact a greater threat to the US/earth. His extreme ideas and plans got him the nickname “Crazy Bernie" for a reason. They are “crazy," as defined in the dictionary: mentally deranged, especially as manifested in a wild or aggressive way.
Sanders repeatedly cited a Yale/Lancet report to defend the the economics of this Medicare for All plans. Here is a Vox article that dissects the study’s overly optimistic assumptions. I highlighted key passages for those who want to read it.
However, if even a fraction of Sanders rantings are implemented (and as president, executive orders could make that happen), it would destroy—or bankrupt—the US economy (the world's largest) and in doing so, damage the entire global economy. Damaging the US economy would cripple the earth's leading hegemon—the USA (A hegemon is a leading or major power. The United States has long been a hegemon in world politics), and lead to global chaos. His policies in the US could easily bankrupt the USA and lead to huge social and economic upheavals.
Sanders seems to know that, which is exactly why he is dangerous. His followers are many, action-oriented but naive, uninformed or misinformed, and many of them are the youth of an "entitled generation" who think the world “owes them a free everything.” Depicting them as victims of the trials of real life is a clever campaign strategy, but no way to run a country.
A REMINDER: THE GOVERNMENT HAS NO “WEALTH” OF ITS OWN. ALL OF THE GOVERNMENT’S MONEY IS TAKEN FROM BUSINESSES AND INDIVIDUALS WHO EARN IT AND PAY TAXES, OR FROM FEES AND TARIFFS IT LEVIES ON OTHERS INSIDE OR OUTSIDE THE USA. GOVERNMENT CREATES NO WEALTH—ZERO, ZIP, NADA!
THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD HAS NARROWED TO A GROUP OF 6-7 MARGINAL (OR WORSE) CHOICES:
- Bernie Sanders is leading. If you promise enough people to give them "free everything,” and blame everyone else for all their woes, they might just elect you. Scary. Few Democrat leaders want him at the top of their ticket.
- Joe Biden, the former leader, is hoping to save his campaign in SC’s primary thanks to Clybourn's (black) political endorsement, and a recovery from lackluster past debates—scrambled, cobbled-up stories that he can’t keep straight.
- Elizabeth Warren, the intense, nasty, critical socialist (“Pocahontas”) who has all the charm of an angry badger.
- Pleasant Mayor Pete, the Obama-lite candidate who sounds rational and "checks all the LGBYQ boxes" but one: “E”—meaningful, mature Experience. He’s just not ready for such a big job.
- Mayor Mike Bloomberg—did a little better, but he falls short as a speaker crowd of zealots, as a quiet, thoughtful person who has actually run things, built businesses and made a fortune.
- Amy Klobucher, has actually won elections, & is a credible Senator, but questions about a mean-temper w/staff turnover. (see https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-staff.html
- Tom Steyer was able to “get a word in edgewise,” but just barely and without enough reach to quiet the ranting Sanders.
If anyone thinks this group—this party—that has screwed up most major American cities can actually run the whole USA—think again! But the danger still remains. No one on the Dem side thought Trump even had a chance of being elected. But he was elected! Bloomberg makes sense in ads and in a quiet room—but that’s not what this desperate Democratic primary will be. It’s a ZOO.
I'LL BE BACK TO REMIND YOU HOW WE NEED TO KEEP OUR FRIENDS INFORMED OF THE DANGERS SANDER’S REVOLUTIONARY SOCIALISM POSES.
SHORT TAKES:
THIS PIECE IS WORTH READING IT ALL—TRUMP IS GETTING RESULTS—BUT IS OFTEN HIS OWN WORST ENEMY (via TWITTER).
CHINA & RUSSIA—WHEN CAN WE BELIEVE ANYTHING THEY SAY OR DO?
Not ever. Check twice, verify and then be skeptical. China’s public stability is a ruse. It is the way China tries to prove they are in control.
A WORLD I DON’T EVEN KNOW ABOUT—WHO OF YOU DO? SHOULD WE?
YouTube has a whole new galaxy of music and stars and I am totally clueless.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again—a 20 year old Southern Rapper was the most viewed artist in US in 2019?? Really? How about Post Malone—Spotify’s top artist? And Youngboy doesn’t even appear on its top ten! Billie Eilish is one that both lists recognize—but not me. Do you know about Khalid or Lil Baby? When there’s an entire audience and culture with which many Americans are in love, and many others are clueless, it tells us about the wide differences in taste and entertainment.in our country. Thus the least watched Academy Awards Show in years, choosing and obscure, subtitled Korean movie, Parasite, as its Best Movie Award winner. FYI—the Toy Industry also now deeply involved in YouTube, because kids are now watching it so much—and with Toys R Us departure, the Toy industry is down—a lot.
CHANGING THE BALLS IS A BIG DEAL
In baseball it's a perennial issue of "live or dead" balls impacting home run production. NFL teams have their own favorite balls too. Golfers do, of course, which is why 70%+ of top pros and 90%+ of top amateurs play Titleist balls. Are they better? The pros think so. Now college Basketball has “smart balls” made by Nike, UnderArmour & Wilson, which have embedded Shot Tracker tech in them, allowing the “shots to be tracked,” of course. But it seems the balls vary and some teams in the Mountain West conference are having widely different results and shooting stats. Is it in their heads? Or are the differences somehow linked to shooting styles, bal construction, or coaching, or mystery? Who knows. Watch New Mexico and Utah State who shoot about 10% differently—55% vs. 45% with Nike vs. non-Nike balls. What’s up??
UBER IS LOSING MONEY FASTER THAN A DRUNKEN CONGRESSMAN SPENDS IT
How do they survive, long term? I don’t know. Combined by Lyft, they have shaped taxis, and ride sharing. But is this for the better, if it can’t last?
WASTING ENERGY & POLLUTING THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE—BILLIONS OF $$ IN NATURAL GAS IS GOING UP IN SMOKE—5.1 TRILLION CU. FT OF IT. IN 2019
It’s being “flared off (burnt) by Oil Companies who don’t know what else to do with it. Russia, Iraq and Iran actually waste more of it. And all we hear is bitching about the Paris energy accords? Burning gas releases CO2, but putting explosive methane into the atmosphere, which is worse. Can anyone find a productive use for all that wasted methane?
MBA SCHOOLS ARE FINALLY REALIZING THAT TECHNOLOGY HAS A PLACE IN THEIR CURRICULUM
STEM programs are being added all over. Finally. Purdue, UNC, NU, and Cal…to name a few. About time!
BOEING—THE GANG THAT COULDN’T FLY STRAIGHT
The 737 Max debacle goes back to 2011 when pressure from the Board to find a cheaper 737 design, instead of designing a new airplane, started what led to two crashes and a multi-year grounding of the 737 Max. 7 of 13 members of that board are still on today’s board, but NO ONE with any aerospace engineering experience — except the newly fired CEO (2015-2019) Dennis Muilenburg. This is a massive cultural deficiency, where many Boeing people knew, but nobody stopped the stupidity. Apparently the critical input of test pilots, engineers, and middle/upper management was suppressed or withheld. The Boeing damage in all forms is staggering. Deplorable—but not uncommon in large companies and organizations (or government, including the FAA!
WHO’S THE BEST AND WORST OF THE AIRLINES?
Surveys say: Delta, Alaska and Southwest are the three overall best. American is the worst across most the metrics tracked, with United also near the bottom. The consolidation into those two big carriers, they got bigger, but not better. Dominance sometimes leads to mediocrity.
THE ORDERLY RETREAT FROM THE MIDDLE EAST 2.0--WISE OR FOOLISH—OR BOTH
Barack Obama led the orderly retreat during his term. Donald Trump is now pushing a disorderly retreat, since he feels the Middle East isn’t our war, and the US is no longer as reliant on Middle East oil. I heard President George W. Bush speak last month, and he warned against withdrawing the US influence too much. Progress is slow and erratic. There’s no “winning” in these Middle East conflicts. Stabilization is even iffy. “When you’re digging a hole you don’t know how to get out of, the best idea is first to to stop digging.” Just leave a few caretakers to watch from mischief or worse!
BORDER ISSUES CONTINUE—BUT NOT JUST PEOPLE—COUNTERFEIT PRODUCTS
These have always been problems, but the growth of internet commerce it has become worse. Amazon’s growth has not helped and probably has made things worse. Maybe it’s inevitable, but it sure is pervasive. Counterfeit products and knockoffs are everywhere.
KUDOS TO P & G FOR SIMPLIFYING ITS PRODUCTS TO REDUCE COMPLEXITY
Now it is able to focus on moving upscale to better prices and values. Good idea! P & G has been through cycles of acquisition and product line extension, but without commensurate growth in revenue and profits. Now it is doing it the right way—reducing complexity and focusing on strong products and brands—which can sell at premium prices. Complexity: Use it or Lose it…P & G chose the latter.
GPS FINALLY COMING TO AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL—AFTER DECADES OF WAITING
The old beacon system is finally giving way to newer GPS based tracking. This allows plane spacing to diminish from the old standard of 40-80 miles apart to the new one of 14 miles, creating a huge increase in capacity for flights and with better tracking (vertical spacing has already been reduced doubling capacity). (Let's just hope nobody hacks the GPS satellite system!)
THE STRONG GET STRONGER AND THE WEAK FADE AWAY
As Walmart, Amazon, Target post comparable store gains greater than the market growth, weaker chains suffer. JCPenney, Kohl’s, Macy, JCrew and a host of smaller chains fall away. Remember, when a big like Walmart posts a 2-3% comp store gain on is $350 Billion US business, that is like taking out a $7-10 Billion retail business. Even big specialty chains like Forever21 are being sold, bought, split apart and hopefully rejuvenated. America is over-retailed; has been for years. Good times have postponed the fall out (except for Sears/Kmart, Toys R Us, etc.), but pressure grows. Best Buy dodged the “show-rooming” bullet, but Bed Bath & Beyond is struggling—too many stores and far too much assortment of SKUs. It will have to change or disappear.
LOOK AT THE TOTAL PICTURE—PLASTIC GROCERY BAGS ARE NOT SO BAD AFTER ALL
In the rush for for environmental friendly bags to replace the ubiquitous plastic grocery sack, the ‘greenies' are forcing a stampede to paper bags. (The Marco Island Farmers Market forced that switch…and many folks are bringing their own reusable bag—a good idea.) But before we blame every ill on the planet on plastic grocery bags, let's stop to think from widely. Those paper bags require growing trees, harvesting them, pulping them (lots of waste and pollution), and making paper. The only good part is that they are biodegradable (usually), but seldom get recycled. Please read the attached for a whole new perspective.
PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE:
GROCERY HAS ALWAYS BEEN A BATTLE FOR PREMIUM SHELF SPACE
That is intensifying as the bigs (WMT, KRG, et. al.) get bigger and the consumer product brand companies fight for the best retail spaces. Retailers like Kroger have increased its brands (presumably more profitable—but of questionably comparable quality) en masse in some categories, pushing branded products to a fraction of the shelf space, and not always the best spots (eye or waist level). I have tried Kroger’s brands and returned them for poor quality, on multiple occasions—in exchange for the branded version. (Aldi’s goods, however are almost all private label and good quality.) Walmart is still evolving its selections.
MORE TO COME, INCLUDING SUPER TUESDAY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES, CORONAVIRUS ISSUES, AND THE STOCK MARKET PLUNGE, AND...
OK…I’ve gone on too long. It’s been an interesting couple of weeks.
Seems like a series of medical issues (could I be gettng old?? Yes!!)) A bad tooth—surgical extraction, and bone graft, for an implant in a few months; a massive rebuild of a multi-filling molar for a crown; an ongoing battle with plantar fasciitis, and home physical therapy exercises daily to finally (I hope) recover from Sciatica and a damaged disk.
But, I’m in a nice place with my bride of 55+ years and getting to see each of our children more than usual (only one lives nearby). Since I have time to think, read and write, THE ENTERPRISE frequency has increased a bit. I’ve always encouraged readers to “pass it on” and if others wan to be on the email list, just ask. Those who want off, can also ask and I'll drop their email address from the list.
BEST, JOHN
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