I CAN’T KNOW WHICH GENERATION YOU BELONG TO. I ONLY KNOW THAT ALL “GENERATIONS" ARE SEEING UNPRECEDENTED, UNIMAGINABLE CHANGE
What differs is how they respond to the change. The quote below is important for all Generations to consider as we enter 2021:
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it! (George Santayana-1905). In a 1948 speech to the House of Commons, Winston Churchill changed the quote slightly when he said (paraphrased), “those who fail to learn from history’s errors are condemned to repeat them.”
Consider the various “Generations”—Baby Boomers born 1946-1964, Gen X born 1965-1979/80, Gen Y born 1981-1994/96, and Gen Z born 1997-2012/15+…and the placeholder for the youngest people. None of them have ever endured the magnitude of change in a single year, as we have in 2020. And yet, as I looked through my old columns, I was constantly reminded about how much unimaginable change has happened in the past two decades.
Who could have foreseen that we’d all be wearing masks, millions would have contracted this new virus and in America alone hundreds of thousands have died. Office buildings lie empty while Zoom (video) calls involve millions. Shopping centers no longer attract hordes of people, and vacant, failing stores are everywhere. Restaurants are failing equally rapidly. Big entertainment and sporting venues are largely empty. Few people have ever seen, predicted or endured anything like this. “Normal" social and commercial activities, (including travel) are unable to perform "normally.”
(Many (most) people are hoping that the vaccine(s) now being introduced, will enable a return to something resembling “normalcy”—and maybe they will)
In future editions of THE ENTERPRISE I’ll share thoughts about Collaboration, a critical part of any successful organization or enterprise. The normal social events like weddings, funerals, celebrations and family gatherings have been totally disrupted. How much of this is temporary remains to be seen. One thing is certain: Change will continue to offer challenges—and opportunities—and how we adapt and evolve will be the largest challenge of coming years.
What will be critically important is how we respond and react to this “new (not-so) normal.” Past predictions don’t help. You can read now about how wrong they were in the past.
See what I wrote about in 2002—almost twenty years ago.
How we react as individuals, as organizations and as a society—that’s what matters.
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When Old Rules No Longer Apply
©2002 John Mariotti
The cry sounds out so often, “The Future…is uncertain”! Few realize just how uncertain it is. Predictions about the future are notoriously inaccurate. Consider the statements by these four learned experts!
- “The radio craze will die out in time.” --Thomas Edison
- “No woman in my time will be prime-minister.” --Margaret Thatcher
- “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home” --Ken Olson, CEO, Digital Equipment
- “640K of memory ought to be enough for anybody” --Bill Gates
Time has proven and nature has confirmed that change is certain! If further confirmation is needed, just look at the change in the population that defines the ten largest cities in the US. Comparing the ten largest going into the 2000 Census shows that only three of the ten from the year 1900—New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia—remain in the top ten. The shift of population to the Sunbelt and West Coast of the US has completely restructured the population distribution of the country and along with it, is restructuring the social and political power as well.
The other fact we know to be true is that change is difficult—difficult to bring about and even more difficult to accept. The risk to the change leader is enormous. It has been so for centuries and was recognized by Niccolo Machiavelli in “The Prince”, published in 1513.
"It should be borne in mind that there is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success, and more dangerous to carry through than initiating change. … The innovator makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new.”
If we are to open our minds to change, we must learn from errors and successes of the past. We must struggle to clearly understand the present too. But most of all, we must commit to finding and creating a new future. Sadly, we are so preoccupied with perfecting the present or protecting the past that we fail to work on finding the future! But this has been the case throughout history! What do these have in common?
- The Dinosaurs
- The Roman Empire
- The American Bison
- The Open Range Cowboy
- The Sony Betamax
The answer, of course is that all of these powerful forces fell to changes because they couldn’t or didn’t adapt:
- Dinosaurs--a environmental event--a meteor hit
- The Roman Empire--fell to personal strife & greed
- American Bison--herd instinct = hunting with rifles
- The Open Range Cowboy--technology/barbed wire
- Sony Betamax--technology/more user-friendly systems
But the more telling question is which powerful forces fell to natural enemies? The startling answer is “None of them”! They all failed to adapt, to cope with or to capitalize on CHANGE! Technology changed. The environment changed. They struggled internally or herded together and then fell to change! Yet change presents a great opportunity.
Since denial is a natural human reaction to change, one of our favorite forms of denial is that “this time is different”. But, is this time unique? Perhaps every generation thinks this is the case. Consider this:
“Over the course of a few years, a new communications technology annihilated distance and shrank the world faster and further than ever before. A world-wide communications network whose cables spanned continents and oceans and gave rise to new forms of crime.”
This quotation sounds like today’s claims about the Internet, doesn’t it? Except this was said in 1840 about the telegraph!
And so, is change a terrifying threat, or is it a wonderful opportunity? How you answer that question is will determine how you behave! To put it another way, are you spending your time and resources protecting the past, perfecting the present, or are you focused on finding the future? You know which one you must do! Do it!
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2021 HEADLINE IN COLUMBUS (OH) DISPATCH: LAST VIDEO RENTAL STORES TO CLOSE.
I PURPOSELY USE THE TERM "DISRUPTIVE CHANGE.”
CAN YOU THINK OF A MORE DISRUPTIVE CHANGE THAN THE CORONAVIRUS.
Look at what COVID-19 has done in the USA alone, with over 300,000 dead and the toll climbing daily.
(And many more globally.)
When the late Clayton Christenson wrote his brilliant book “The Innovator’s Dilemma” and coined the term "disruptive change” he certainly never considered a change as disruptive and deadly as the Covid virus. However, even in the face of such a deadly and daunting foe, the principles to consider and the actions to take are largely the same.
1) Understand and define the problem, and
2) Solve the problem.
To do those successfully, you must understand and solve today’s and tomorrow’s problem—not yesterday’s. In business and in life, denial can be deadly—just with a different set of consequences.
The key to Finding the Future is to build new plans, based on new circumstances, keeping in mind what worked in the past—but not relying on that to work now, or in the future. These are different times, calling for different plans and new solution, based on new realities.
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This is not so new if you consider that I wrote this twenty years ago:
Perfecting the Present vs. Finding the Future ©John L. Mariotti 2000
Harvard professor Clayton Christenson created a stir in industry circles with his work on disruptive technologies and how these seemingly mundane approaches are undermining the positions of industry leaders.
A few years ago, I met with and studied a prospective consulting client who was in deep denial. His company was on the threshold of decline—and yet, perversely, it was doing great—at the moment. He wanted to talk to me because I think he sensed that trouble was just around the corner, but did not want to admit it.
As it turned out, he did not want to face it either, (so I did not get the consulting assignment to help him). Why should he seek help? His company was an industry leader with over 50% market share. It was multi-national, with almost half of its volume coming from outside the U.S. And it was handsomely profitable, although not as much so as it had been just a few years earlier—and profits were trending downward.
This company made metal products, mostly using the same materials and equipment they had for years. Their processes were poorly documented, but deeply ingrained in the minds and habits of a group of loyal employees. Their cost and information systems were flawed—and they knew it—but margins were so good, it did not matter enough for them to change. Although the CFO complained loudly about the need to change, the CEO would have none of it.
The company had started a token venture into alternative materials applications for its products, but this was clearly a stepchild, staffed poorly and narrowly focused on the simplest current applications. The top sales executive simply refused to answer my questions with any weaknesses or competitive threats—not because he was withholding information. He did not think there were any! Scary? You bet it was! This story is still unfolding, but at last check sales have stopped growing and profits continue to fall in spite of making internal operating improvements.
The principle here is that industry leaders nearly always fall victim to outsiders because they are so deeply invested in the know-how or technology that got them to the top, they cannot admit that it won’t last forever.
Upstart competitors upset the market and knock off the entrenched industry incumbents. In addition to Christenson, Gary Hamel (Leading the Revolution. Harvard Business School Press, 2000) has made a crusade of pointing this out to large companies but with only modest results. It is so hard to leave that safe, comfortable place, even when the risk of staying there is greater than the risk of leaving!
Somehow, it is always easier to work on “Protecting the Past” or “Perfecting the Present” instead of “Finding the Future”. Don’t fall into that trap. Disruptive technologies are coming. Is it your industry’s time yet? Now that you know it, what are you going to do about it? Don’t bother to ask loyal, entrenched incumbents—they, too are the likely victims. Find a bunch of rebels, or a small upstart company, and hire them or buy it. Cisco learned this lesson and “Finds its Future” exactly this way. Will you?=================
PS: Here’s a useful formula I discovered many years later:
PP*2≠FF: Protecting the Past, while Perfecting the Present does not equal Finding the Future.
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HOW WE ADAPT AND EVOLVE WHEN FACED WITH DISRUPTIVE CHANGE, LARGELY DETERMINES OUR FATE—AND MUCH OF THIS IS WITHIN OUR CONTROL.
Will you spend your mental energy and resources (time, talent and treasure) on Protecting the Past, and/or Perfecting the Present, or are you Focused on Finding the Future? That recurring theme will appear in future editions of THE ENTERPRISE.
STAY SAFE AND WELL…AND BE POSITIVE…
JOHN
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