Over twenty years ago I wrote the column posted below as a cautionary note. As media has migrated from “factual news” to “positioning bias” in its so-called news coverage, the consequences can be—and often are—enormous. Whether you call it “Fake News” or “biased reporting” such misinformation is very damaging when it creates self-fulfilling outcomes.
======================
Are hard times coming?
©John Mariotti 1999
The current business buzz is all about which way the economy is headed in the next year or two. No one can predict the direction confidently, because there are too many complex factors--not the least of which is how businesses will react to Y2K and global economic events. In short, will companies focus on problems or opportunities?
Many years ago, I read a short story that describes a chain of events that can unfold in such a situation. The story stuck in my mind, although I can't recall where it came from or the name of the author. But I think the message is appropriate in the current business & political climate.
"Hard Times Are Coming--All Will Suffer from Downturn."
The scene is a bistro in Paris. A young painter enters the bistro and asks the waiter for a bottle of his finest wine to celebrate his first big commission--on a painting for a rich businessman. As waits for the wine, he notices a newspaper lying on a chair at the next table. The headline reads, "Hard Times Are Coming--All Will Suffer from Downturn."
Alarmed, he calls the waiter back and asks whether he has opened the wine.
Finding that the expensive bottle is still unopened, the artist tells the waiter to bring him a more modestly priced wine instead. The waiter asks why he wishes to change--is he less excited about his good fortune? "No," replies the painter, "but look at that headline--'Hard Times Are Coming.' I think I should be cautious."
When the waiter goes to exchange the wine, he encounters the owner of the bistro, who asks why he is not opening the fine wine. The waiter relates the painter's reaction to the headline, "Hard Times Are Coming--All Will Suffer from Downturn." As the owner returns to his office, he ponders the food and wine order he'd just placed for his bistro. He has ordered the finest wines and cheeses, and assorted trimmings, because business has been good lately.
But now uneasy about it, he picks up the phone and calls his supplier back, asking to reduce the size of the order and downscale the assortment of food and wine. When the supplier inquires why, the bistro owner repeats the headline, "Hard Times Are Coming." The supplier, himself a small businessman, then calls his supplier--a larger company--and cuts back on his future orders--just in case.
When the owner of the larger company sees the order from one of its best customers reduced sharply, his concern is great, especially after he hears the reason--the headline, "Hard Times Are Coming--All Will Suffer from Downturn." The owner then decides to cut down on his extravagances, so he calls the young painter and cancels the painting he had commissioned.
The young painter returns to the bistro that evening, crestfallen, and asks for a bottle of its cheapest wine--to drown his sorrow. As he awaits the cheap wine, the painter reaches over and picks up the newspaper, still lying on the chair next to him. He discovers that the date on it is two years old!
Self-fulfilling prophecies like the one in this little story may influence the economy next year. For companies, the pivotal decision is whether to to be aggressive, in hopes of gaining market position, or defensive, in fear of more hard times.
Perhaps more than anything else, the decision depends on how well-managed and financially sound a business is just prior to the decision point. It also depends on the strategic thinking of the management team. Downturns present an opportunity to gain market share and position, while defensive-minded competitors blame their losses on the down market, the Asian crisis, and a host of other excuses.
Which decision will your management team make? Have you prepared to capitalize on this kind of opportunity? Are your finances in order, overheads under control, inventories in line?
With the right plans and preparations, great gains are possible. Without them, it could well be that "hard times are coming--and all will suffer from the downturn."
LESSONS TO LEARN?
Actions taken because of expectations are usually perilous and either too slow or too fast—or both.
When times are good, the human tendency is to expect them to stay good—too good, for too long.
When times turn bad, human nature is to be too slow to react to how bad they might be, and not take action, until things get even worse.
Then human nature expects things to stay too bad, for too long again & miss the start of a recovery.
Such behaviors ripple through industries and sometimes the entire economy…often based on something as simple as an article HEADLINE on a two-year-old newspaper.
===========================
HOW MIGHT THIS BE RELEVANT TODAY? READ ON...
Mass Media is now the most influential and loudest voice heard or read by most Americans. IF we believe propaganda-like biased news is true and accurate, then we are all its victims. And we deserve the dire consequences. Even grossly wrong media often goes viral across the Internet and gets accepted as “truth.” (Trump overworked the “fake news claim" so that many people forget what’s what.)
NOTE: Even “fake news” gets accepted as truth after it’s blasted into the public consciousness millions of times.
FINALLY, CONSIDER THIS INFO AND ASK YOURSELF IF MEDIA & POLITICAL MANIPULATION LED THE AMERICAN PEOPLE INTO ELECTING A NEW PRESIDENT OUT OF FEAR AND/OR MIS-INFORMATION.
(THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN FLOATING AROUND THE INTERNET FOR MONTHS. )
"Figures Don’t Lie, but Liars Figure—Food for thought!” (source unknown, but CDC data is verifiable!)
As reported by the CDC ... Here are the US deaths by Year and the change from the previous year. —Year 2017—2,818,503 Americans died. —Year 2018—2,839,205 deaths (20,702 more than the previous year 2017). —Year 2019—2,855,000 deaths (16,300 more than the previous year 2018). The year of the pandemic ...—Year 2020—2,913,144 deaths (Only 57,641 more than the previous year 2019).
BUT WAIT: There were zero deaths from Covid-19 during 2018, and 2019 and the jump from 2019 was only 57,641?
We've been told that COVID was responsible for 375,000 deaths in 2020. Shouldn't the 2020 CDC annual death increase be A LOT higher than 57,000 ?
How many people really died of COVID, and how many died of other pre-existing illnesses or “co-morbidities” counted as (or triggered by) COVID?
=============
WHAT DO YOU THINK? WHAT'S THE TRUTH? ARE "HARD TIMES COMING?"
With the Stock Market hitting new highs every week or two, buoyed by the massive influx of money in government handouts/stimulus courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s Debt Printing Press. Someday, someone must pay—or else there will be massive inflation and/or a devastating devaluation of the US dollar—in which case, “Hard Times WILL Come, and All WILL Suffer.”
The problem is “Bidenomics" and the Democrats' spend & tax plans, which will feel good in the near term, but not in the long term. (Like an addictive drug fix Bidenomics offers “highs” in the short term, followed by "downers and painful withdrawal" later.)
When Biden says he will not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000, he fails to mention three inconvenient facts:
1) Raising corporate taxes will force corporations to raise prices to everyone—rich and poor alike—regardless of what they make;
2) Raising corporate taxes will drive companies (and their jobs, payrolls and taxable profits) out of the USA, and into foreign countries and subsidiaries.
3) Even the poor and middle-class will see their costs go up, and jobs go away—to faraway places.
CAN AMERICANS RECLAIM CONTROL OF THEIR GOVERNMENT BEFORE THIS INSANITY TURNS INTO A PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT AVALANCHE?
MANY BELIEVE THAT UNLESS SUCH AN “AVALANCHE" IS AVERTED, AMERICA IS IN DANGER OF BECOMING A “ONE-PARTY” COUNTRY.
Historically and politically—THAT’S NOT GOOD FOR ANY OF US.
Winning back control of the House and/or Senate in 2022 mid-term races—the only way to stop it?
JOHN
.
Recent Comments