THE ENTERPRISE—WHAT'S THIS YEAR SHAPING UP TO BE LIKE—THE MOST COMMON QUESTION PEOPLE ASK.
IN A WORD: TURBULENT
Election years are always hard to predict. Throw in $5/gallon gas, 8% inflation and a Fed prediction of 6—yes—a half dozen interest rate hikes, and a year of turmoil.
INFLATION IS HERE TO STAY—YOUR MONEY HAS LESS BUYING POWER
I’ll try to identify the factors that will shape the year—or at least the first half of it. First, the government has NO wealth of its own. It only has what it collects from us in taxes, or gets from duties it levies on goods coming into the US—which also cost us more.
"Retail sales growth slowed in February.” No surprise as the $50 fill-up at the gas station and nearly 8% inflation cuts into disposable income. Then Putin’s brutal attack on Ukraine and its people leads the new everywhere. Anyone who sees a government led by Clueless, Bungling Biden, understands how dropping newly printed money from planes into peoples' homes will temporarily create spending growth. With nothing tangible of value behind that new money (but record levels of government debt) you have—voila’—inflation. Contrary to Clueless, Bungling Biden and his acolytes in government and media, this inflation is neither temporary nor can it be blamed on Putin. It’s the fault of Biden and his administration’s stupid policies. (A trick Biden learned from Obama—anytime you screw up—blame it on somebody else!)
When government spending climbs because it can, by taxing us and using our taxes to invest in even more, larger government boondoggles, our hard earned, invested money is crowded out of markets. Worse yet, like an illegal money laundering scheme, the government keeps part of it and we can only expect our government largesse (freebies) funded by part of it. Inflation hits us first in things we must buy—gas, food, shelter, clothing, medical needs and so forth.
When Putin starts his own private war to take back Ukraine from its independence, he creates still more inflation by spending money to destroy cities, buildings and possessions (and kill innocent people). By destroying productive facilities (and people) in Ukraine, he makes things even worse. So, learn to live with inflation…and it might go even higher before it goes down…as politicians try to force down inflation as a campaign promise.
LABOR—TRAINING PEOPLE HOW TO GET ALONG BY NOT WORKING—TAX THOSE WHO DO WORK, AND GIVE FREE MONEY & STUFF TO THOSE WHO DON’T (FLOODS OF “UNDOCUMENTEDS" TO TAKE JOBS — OR USE OUR WELFARE
Then act surprised that labor force participation drops and drops. Ignore border control and let in thousands more who can’t earn their way and pay zero taxes, or follow US laws, but expect to be taken care of. Worse yet, US companies fire their workers in downturns and let the government (funded by tax paying Americans) to pick up the tab, sometimes for more than a working wage would provide! Then getting people back to work—in jobs (when, or if business recovers), competing with illegal immigrants (at lower pay that Americans, is hard or impossible. Plus when they were allowed to work from home (“unsupervised”) during Covid, they learned how great freedom from work felt—and with no commute in traffic, using $5/gallon gas.
The best companies (and sports teams) try to get the best people (players) they can afford, and pay them well. With good leadership, the results are usually quite good. The opposite happens when marginally qualified, unmotivated people are hired at rock bottom pay. Companies fail and people are back on the government welfare wagon….Paid for by whom? By working tax payers, of course.
Final thought: Employee Retention is an Oxymoron these days. A regular job used to provide security for the worker and also for the employer, that help would be there when the business needed it. NOT ANY MORE!
What’s happened: Culture has changed to an ENTITLEMENT CULTURE; Education has changed to being more focused on WOKE, SOCIAL AND POLITICALLY CORRECT BEHAVIOR rather than skills that are employable and productive. Helicopter parents of Gen Z+ have provided such a laissez faire attitude that too many young people don’t realize that “work" means showing up, on time and willing to actually work!
Wages are climbing rapidly; work at home has become a perk with vague expectations of results, and being there when the zoom call is schedule—but no need to commute and pay high gas prices—and have a government subsidized electric or hybrid car). Some form of energy (who pays for that) must provide the charging stations with fuel. What is the motivation for this new culture to be more productive, to be more innovative (is it watching streaming TV or playing interactive video games? I’m hoping that the appeal of being part of a productive, collaborative, high energy team with strong leadership will still energize the best people to be the workers of the 2020’s.
LEADERSHIP, TURMOIL, INDECISION AND CONFLICT—WAR—OR THE PROSPECT OF MORE ARMED CONFLICTS
It’s clear that Putin is a strong leader in a ruthless, brutal way—to get what he wants at any cost—lives of innocents, destruction of cities, and whatever else he imagines. He’s not crazy per se. He just lacks the human values that most of the world wishes a leader would have. And, in this war—he never should have started—there’s no easy way out for him, to save face when it stalls except to grind Ukraine into blood, rubble and dust.
Feckless “old" Joe Biden is totally incapable of strong leadership in the face of such opposition. He’s slow to act, indecisive, “tone deaf” and easily goes off track—chasing some illusion planted by the radical left wing of his party. All good leaders depend on input from their followers, staff and constituents, but Biden’s counsel is flawed and failing. Worse yet, should his aged body and mind fail him further, his VP choice is even worse as a leader. The best outcome is to hope that Biden doesn’t screw up too many times, too badly, or fatally, and finishes his one term, then gives way to a whole new “regime,.”
There are many articles and columns written about Biden’ failings. Some of the best appear in the Wall Street Journal, including those by Kimberly Strassel, Gerald Seib and Peggy Noonan.
IF THIS ISN’T ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT, ADD CHINA (XI) NORTH KOREA (UN), AND IRAN (MULLAHS).
China wants Taiwan back, and control of the South China Sea (with all the sprawling “manufactured" islands claimed as Chinese territory). North Korea is led by an immature, murderous 3rd generation leader with hopelessly inflated self-esteem. He’s dangerously meteoric in his behaviors. Iran is a country whose leaders’ values and ideas are based on century old tribal and religious cultures and loyalties. There’s the whole next level: Hezbollah, the Taliban, remnants of al Qaeda & ISIS, and so many more. The most frightening thought after making this list is Clueless Bungling Biden (even understanding the threats) and his band of minions “translating" these threats into US policies and actions.
AFTER THIS LITANY OF WOES AND PROBLEMS, AMERICA, WITH ALL ITS DIVISIONS & CHALLENGES, IS STILL THE BEST COUNTRY ON EARTH—BY FAR. How do I know that? Apply the most basic test: That’s why so many people from so many places want to come here?
WHAT SHOULD WE DO TO MAKE 2022 & BEYOND THE BEST POSSIBLE? “United we stand, divided we fall.” contains the core answer. We must unify; elect new, better leaders to Congress, in our States and Cities and towns—and ignore the stupid, shallow media who only cares about ratings and sensationalism.
Re-read the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. FREE Copies are available on line. https://lp.hillsdale.edu/free-pocket-constitution/ Then do the next right thing, over and over. You will know it when you see it. Finally, read what's on our money: In God We Trust… and then follow that. And pray for God’s help.
Best, JOHN
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