Telling It Like It Is

THE ENTERPRISE—PUTIN/XI, PANDEMICS, PERSONALITIES AND PARTISAN POLITICAL POLARIZATION = UNPRECEDENTED PROBLEMS FOR AGING LEADERS

THE US ECONOMY MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN A “RECESSION”—WHO DECIDES THAT?
U.S., recessions are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC), referred to  as the “official” definition. Though the terms “technical” and “official” are useful shorthand references, not completely accurate. The “technical” definition is less technical than the much more complicated “official” NBER definition, and the “official” definition’s source doesn’t even claim it’s “official.”  “The NBER makes no claim to being the ‘official’ determiner of recession and expansion dates,” said Charles Radin, a spokesman for the organization.”

 

THE US ECONOMY IS “STALLED”—NEITHER GROWING NOR SHRINKING

Some call this “stagflation”, a creative combination of the terms stagnation and inflation. In nature few things can remain unchanging for very  long. They either grow or shrink (and die). Form your own opinion about which is happening in the US right now.

MORE POLITICS—WHY ALWAYS POLITICS

Many times I’m asked, “Why do politics creep into THE ENTERPRISE so often?”
The answer is simple. The pervasive invasion of American lives, the country’s economy, and much more it involves, and has driven politics —and inept leadership—to the top of our minds and news. So many decisions, personal, professional, and moral are influenced (many times negatively) by the growth and over-reach of government in America?

Simply consider several of the men (they were all men!) that have occupied the White House in recent decades. Five Presidents—Bill Clinton (charming but scandalous). —George W. Bush (rich TX Gov., w/Middle-East problems, but handled 911 attack better than expected). —Barack Obama (articulate, multi-racial, but without evidence of real experience, but loved by media ). —Donald Trump (celebrity, famous, decisive but a flawed personality/behavior and hated by media). Finally —Joe Biden (anybody-but-Trump winner of a flawed election, w/zero accomplishments in 40+ years in Senate, a bumbling, confused non-leader.) Worst of all, IF Biden must take a medically/cognitively induced early retirement, his replacement is the poorly chosen, proven incapable VP, Kamala Harris!

Whether you loved some of these presidents or hated them—everyone falls into one of those two camps—this is striking evidence of why America is in a mess. Simply revisit the stated positions of many career politicians (such as Sen. Chuck Schumer, and lots more like him) over the past several decades. Their stated policy positions are littered with diametrically opposite statements. Question: what do partisan politicians stand for! Answer: Whatever they must, to get elected. (How do you think Biden endured more that 4 decades in the Senate? “Flexible positions & politics!”)

WHAT MAKES STRONG LEADERS?
Two of the most powerful traits of excellent leaders are consistency and integrity. Those traits come from reliably saying what they will do and why, and then doing what they said, (and credibly explaining any differences between the two). It’s called  "walking the talk!”  

Is this too much to expect of corporate leaders, government leaders and civic or community leaders? This should be the ultimate litmus test of leadership. Why isn’t it? Because a combination of a malleable media, an apathetic populous, and growing moral decay, has seized America.  Lying is normal and accepted. Cheating is common and usually goes unpunished. Revisionist thinking is rampant, “he or she simply misspoke…”. Really?

Democrats just passed a bill they called the Inflation Reduction Act, which is both misnamed/misguided, and a mistake. Only by creatively manipulating future economic projections dies it reduce inflation. It doesn’t! Plus, no one cares that the country is deeply in debt, and neither political party will do anything but dig the hole deeper. Money created out of thin air and the Fed’s printing press, with no material underpinning, is the very definition of inflation. Why is anyone surprised?

RUSSIA/PUTIN'S INVASION OF UKRAINE—WITH LITTLE ORGANIZED RESISTANCE, UNTIL TOO LATE & XI/CHINA’S AGGRESSIONS (HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, COVID & TAIWAN/SOUTH CHINA SEA .)

These two huge and bold aggressor countries have started global spread of evil. Consider this well known statement:
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” It’s a quote routinely attributed to Edmund Burke. Apparently, he never uttered these words. At best, the quote can be traced back to John Stuart Mill, who delivered an 1867 inaugural address at the University of St. Andrews and stated: “Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion. ... He is not a good man who, without a protest, allows wrong to be committed in his name, and with the means which he helps to supply, because he will not trouble himself to use his mind on the subject.”

Corporate executives are equally at fault.  VW falsified emissions reporting for fo.  Boeing executives looked the other way while the 737Max was proven dangerous or fatally flawed. Millions of Takata air bags were used by automakers, who knew of their flaws. Lately, Toyota admitted emission reporting flaws. Ethics? Integrity? Nope! Just CYA politics.

Most egregious of all is the Climate Change misinformation still being spread by media, and people, many of them so-called experts, who rely on a mythical calamity to retain their funding.  Only after Obama’s top scientist in the field “bails out” to write an accurate and scathing book (Unsettled, by Stephen Kooning) is it revealed fully how wrong all the Climate Change hysteria is.  
Yes, weather is variably bad and worse at times. People lose lives and property because they insist on building in places known to be vulnerable to regularly recurring natural events—floods, hurricanes, etc.—Weather!  And no, weather is not the same as climate. Climate spans decades and centuries. Weather spans days, weeks and seasons.

IGNORING THE UNANSWERED  QUESTIONS ABOUT ELECTRIC VEHICLES, AND ELECTRIFICATION IN GENERAL
Electrification is not as clean as it is claimed to be; the electricity must be generated somehow, which is usually neither free or clean. The popular EV (Electric Vehicle) and "carbon neutral by 2030" (or even 2050) proclamations are a popular political and aspirational myth. No one knows where all the new electricity and the rare earth elements needed will come from (except maybe China?) and with what consequences. 

No one knows how or where to ecologically dispose of huge worn out auto batteries, giant wind turbines which longer work, and massive (but also worn out) solar panel arrays. Those are unsolved problems of the 2030 — 2050 ill-defined future  (FYI—Only millions of small, high-tech, clean nuclear power plants can do that…but the cost will be enormous! (Plus NIMBY—Not In My Back Yard) resistance comes into the decision.)

Leave it to California, the land of impossible extremes (e.g.,the mulli-bilion-dollar train to nowhere) just weighed in with legislation banning gasoline cars and trucks in 2035. In 13 years, the Hollywood glitterati, celebs, corporate execs and politicians will all be riding in EV Limos, while the flood of illegals “ into the “sanctuary statedoes all the real work. I wonder what will fuel all the trucks that serve businesses? No diesel, no gas. (if only they could run on BS and booze?)

OFFICES ARE STRUGGLING BECAUSE THE PANDEMIC EXPOSED HOW MANY OTHER WAYS BUSINESS COULD BE CONDUCTED
When people are motivated to do the work in less time, and use the leftover time for personal things, that’s a powerful motivation. When it includes avoiding 30 minute commutes using $4-5/ gal. gas, the incentive grows.  If it reduces them to being “supervised” by a micro-manager, who know less about the work than the workers do, the incentives to work at home are immense. Requiring partial attendance is a good idea, especially if the workforce participates in the decisions about when, for how long, why, and how.

What’s  lost in a work at home decision? Collaboration. Face to face interaction and teamwork. Camaraderie of a positive culture. What enables those benefits? Good, engaging, and positive leadership. Ask yourself, when is that present, and when is it absent? Why? Will some people slack off? Sure. Will they miss deadlines, fail on assignment agreed to, yes. When those symptoms show up leaders who have put in place measurable goals, documentation of who will do what, by when, and how much—thoee leaders must lead, guide, clarify, and require accountability. What a unique concept.🙄

WHAT TO DO ?
Choose leaders much more carefully, and then support them, elect them, and stay in touch to hold them accountable. Don’t be afraid to stand on principles and debate issues. Care about people and use common sense and the facts, when making decisions. Find consensus between parties on what is best for America and Americans—not for Dem or GOP—for the common good. Be financially responsible about spending and quit running up deficits by printing money that’s worth less and less due to inflation.

AFTER ALL THAT, WHAT SHOULD YOU EXPECT AND HOPE FOR… Facts, truth, strong, positive leadership, pride in accomplishments and a return of the great American work ethic.

Jack Webb, in the old TV show, Dragnet, always said: “The facts, just the facts…”  but the facts are inconvenient things. They are often at odds with beliefs, hopes, wishes and selfish agendas.
But be careful…The famous line spoken to Tom Cruise, by Jack Nicholson in the movie A Few Good Men comes to mind:  
“You want the truth? …You can’t handle the truth!”

And let's all follow the Golden Rule: "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you!”

Celebrate “Labor Day” —in recognition of all the fine Americans who are still working for a living and to create wealth—(even though they now number only about half of all American🥺).

God Bless America.
JOHN

PS: Finally, a brand new English word that describes not only the present but our future:

 INEPTOCRACY - A DEFINITION

 Ineptocracy(in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead, are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

THE ENTERPRISE—PERILOUS TIMES, FLAWED LEADERSHIP, AND HOW TO DEAL WITH ALL THE PROBLEMS

 

TO SOLVE ANY PROBLEM, IT MUST FIRST BE RECOGNIZED AND UNDERSTOOD. THEN DEFINED. ONCE PROBLEMS ARE WELL-DEFINED THE SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE OBVIOUS.

“A problem well stated is a problem half solved” (Charles Kettering). 

If you can define the problem, solving it becomes easier. Running away from any problem only increases the distance from the solution. “The easiest way to escape from the problem is to solve it.”

“An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” —Benjamin Franklin

Now that you’ve read these pieces of timeless wisdom, how will you spread the word to remind everyone you know or work with of their truth?

 

CONSIDER THE PROBLEMS FACING US TODAY—RECESSION & INFLATION

Are we in a recession or not? Yes & no!  If it Quacks like a Duck and walks or swims like a Duck—it’s probably a Duck! Conclusion: We are in the first stage of a recession, but it’s an unusual one, because it has many positive symptoms of a short, or shallow recession. Some areas are still “doing ok” and labor shortages still persist—for now! The Fed policies & Dems actions can cause “stagflation.” This is a tough one.

 

DOING THE WRONG THINGS MULTIPLE TIMES DOESN'T MAKE THEM RIGHT—IT MAKES THEM WORSE.

When inept leadership only knows how to throw money at problems, the problems do not get fixed—they either get hidden—or worse! Ironically, Joe Biden learned this at the knee of an expert—Barack Obama—who applied this wrong remedy over and over. This was a chapter in my 2012 book written with Dave Lukas, Hope is NOT A Strategy—Leadership lessons from the Obama presidency.

 

INFLATION IMPACTS EVERYTHING

First Biden & the Dems “created” a lot of new money (borrowed, debt) with no intrinsic value supporting it…the textbook definition of inflation. Sort of like throwing gasoline on a fire instead of water to put it out! The Fed comes to the rescue to rein in inflation. How? Increase interest rates. They think that will slow down the economy. (Like throwing a blanket over the fire, it seems to help hide the flames until the fire burns even brighter!)

 

BIDENS BROKEN PROMISES COULD BE A BOOK TITLE

No one making less than $400,000/year will get a tax increase. Not exactly. Their money will just be worth 8-9% less in purchasing power—sort of a hidden tax increase. But wait, says Biden & the Dems,  we need more money to throw at problems! We can get that by taxing the big companies that provide the goods and services Americans buy (with their inflation reduced dollars). 

 

HIDDEN TAX INCREASES ARE REAL…FOR MANY MAKING UNDER $400k

What must these big corporations do to raise the money to pay Biden’s new taxes (the misnamed Inflation Reduction Plan)? Companies must raise their prices or lay off workers to pay the new taxes (or alternatively lower company earnings, which impacts everyone whose pension, IRA or 401(k) plans have been invested in those companies!) Who bears the brunt of all this? You, me, and all Americans who now have dollars worth less (inflation & higher interest rates) goods & services that cost more (to pay more taxes so Biden & Dems have more new money to throw at problems), or face layoffs 

 

WHAT COMPANIES CAN DO TO OFFSET HIGH INTEREST, INFLATION & TAX INCREASES.

1. Use all available technology. Smart phones like Apple iPhone have capabilities that most users don’t begin to fully utilize.  Learn more, use the technology better!

 

2. AI (Artificial Intelligence) is coming fast, and it’s poor cousin Machine Learning is here now. EXAMPLE: Consider a vacation/ business travel plans: YOU make reservations on line, get flights on line, get cash from an ATM, buy supplies/groceries, etc. on line or use self-checkout, pump your own gas/pay at the pump, use WAZE or AAA to navigate your driving, order your meal from GrubHub, use TeleMed to verify your Doctor’s cautionary Input, get RX via mail order or delivery, get movie tickets via Flixster/Fandango, and call the people—FaceTime—that you hope to see, and more—everything that was once done interacting with people, is now done by you, via technology.

 

3.  Cancel out busywork. Stop using Reply to all, use out of office notices, replace time-wasting, lengthy voicemails with short texts, start storing info on your phone, tablet, etc., and use calendar reminders, add notes to your calendar, add addresses & use Maps to navigate. Set rules about meeting length (most meetings don’t need an hour!) Curtail phone tag, and weather reporting on a business call!

 

4. Learn how to avoid the boom & bust of supply chain cycles. Human nature seems inclined to deal with shortages by over-ordering, resulting in worse shortages and inventory excesses later. Measure and manage wasteful Complexity (see my 2008 book, The Complexity Crisis).   (Copies are readily available from my stock, just for cost of shipping—it weighs 1 lb.!)

 

5. Shop at warehouse clubs like Costco, Sam’s for quantity buys, and that includes company purchases and big personal items like cars, big screen TVs, furniture, etc. and high quality private label goods (typical example: Costco’s private label of Zyrtec antihistamine costs the same for 365 tablets that a 30-tablet bottle costs at drug or grocery stores.) Shop groceries at ALDI whose prices are amazingly low and private label products are very good quality.  Read the latest issue of Consumer Reports magazine which is devoted to Saving Money.

 

6. Ask for price matching on purchases. Example: A recent Microsoft Surface laptop I bought was advertised at $300 less at Best Buy than at the MicroCenter (A favorite full-assortment & service computer store) who price matched, and a sales associate price matched the Microsoft Pen reducing the cost by 1/2!

 

7. Share copies of Rocketships and Parachutes, my latest book, which is full things learned over 50+ year career. It’s a great gift item for up and coming managers and professionals. “”..like having a mentor in your hand” is how one reviewer termed it. Either buy it on amazon.com — https://www.amazon.com/Rocketships-Parachutes-Lessons-launch-career/dp/1545316406/ref=sr_1_1?crid=13XAS7SL49PE&keywords=Rocketships+%26+Parachutes+%2B+Mariotti&qid=1660509426&sprefix=rocketships+%26+parachutes+%2B+mariotti%2Caps%2C88&sr=8-1 or email and ask me if you want a signed personalized copy for a gift.

 

A PERILOUS PARADOX

The IRS & Biden’s Justice Dept. — the one place in America where you are “guilty until proven innocent.”  Melania Trump thought she was leaving middle European countries’ autocracy for a real representative Democracy—Wrong!

 

WORRISOME TOPICS TOO BIG TO COVER NOW—I’LL SAVE FOR THE NEXT EDITION.

—The line of succession to the US presidency is full of incompetence! Now Biden, next Harris, then Pelosi—unless the GOP Retakes the House Speaker position!

—Putin’s brutal, illegal invasion of Ukraine continues…need military help!

—China’s blockade simulation threatening Taiwan…let’s hope it doesn’t escalate.

Both countries—Russia & China—economies are tanking due to their failed ideologies.

—Who runs against whom for the presidency in 2024?

 

PLAN AHEAD—TO VOTE FOR NEW LEADERSHIP IN CONGRESS—THIS COMING NOV.

Both Senate and House, plus important elections in your State.

Best,

John